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LUNG YEH'S MM APPROACH - the preamble

1. there would be 2 kinds of bets. UB or Unit Bet which is the minimum bet as stipulated by the casino. HPB or Hot Phase Bet which is the bet you place that counts. It can be anything from 8-20 times or even 50/100 times the UB depending on your capacity and appetite
2. You would need a minimum SESSION bankroll of 8-15 times your preferred HPB. LIFETIME bankroll of 5 times the SESSION bankroll
3. These guidelines can be amended to suit your personal preference or circumstances. I understand each of us have our own psychological profile and preferences. Some are more risk adverse than others. But always remember the 'Scared to lose' philosophy when gaming when losing. The crux of a win/loss is in the LOSS MANAGEMENT equation of a MM system. Always play safe. Everybody can win at some point in their visit. Its how they manage their losses that determines whether they net win or lose.
4. UBs are placed to some times help the game along or to feel the texture of the game before you commit a HPB. If there are other players on the table, there really is no need to place UB as the game will still move along. Free hand or free games are available in most casinos with a slightly higher table minimum bet. In which case you really dont need to place UBs.
5. Also limit the number of gaming hours per visit to 4-6 hours.
6. It is strongly recommended that you maintain your HPB size until you have at least doubled your LIFETIME bankroll after which you may double your HPB size. In this way, as you win you reduce your risk profile. If you are comfortable with the size of your session wins, all the better to maintain your HPB size. You must have the psychological profile to handle larger sized bets otherwise maintain the HPB size and feel more comfortable with the risks you are taking. Be at peace.
7. Baccarat allows one an entry point with minimum capital. Of course, its better and more reassuring if one has ample bankroll. The other side of the coin is - if you cannot manage small money what makes you think you can manage big money?
8. So, if for whatever reason, you are unable to raise ample capital let your UB=HPB. Dont play the Neutral Phase. Be adaptable. I am always conscious of people in such a situation and I also hope some can come to earn a decent living from the small capital base.

For I remembered that in my youth I started a business with rolling my salary month to month.


If you want something badly enough, the universe will conspire to make it happen.


Paulo Coelho

 

That is not really true when it comes to Roulette. In Craps, Baccarat, and Blackjack you have one group made up of two sets to choose from. It's like a coin flip. But in Roulette I have six groups made up from 12 sets. One group can be in a condition of chaos or a losing streak while another is in a super win streak at the same time. I have already demonstrated that you can see this phenomenon thru skilled visual dexterity while using my recommended style of chart keeping. So I would never go blindly in search of win streaks. Are you suggesting in not looking for win streaks and that this is a waste of time? If you are then I understand your comment. I just want to understand what you are saying.

 

Throughout history the rules of successful Baccarat engagement has not changed. Dont be stubborn. Adhere or perish:-

1. The Hot Phase can change into the Shar Chi Phase or the Neutral Phase in an instant without warning and vice versa.
2. When winning streak turns into a losing streak, follow religiously the Lung Yeh rule of stopping when lost 3 out of the last 4 hands. Stop for at least half an hour or even better stop for an hour. On resumption if again a losing bet stop again for another half hour or one hour. If you lost back 30% of your session accumulated winnings stop and take a long break or go home. The casino will still welcome you the next day.
3. Follow also bet amounts as stipulated by Lung Yeh. If you have won 4 or more times consecutively before the losing bet, you can bet up to half the amount of the last lost bet. If you have won less then 4 consecutive times before the last lost bet, you can only bet 10% of the lost bet amount.
4. Negative Martingale has brought more people to ruins then the number who claims success with it.
5. Everybody, and I really mean everybody bar none has won at baccarat at some point in their life based on their own betting selection system. So any bet selection methods work at different times or phases in the shoes being played. If you are someone who believes that after 3 Bankers, it will continue with another banker you will be right if you happen to be in the Hot Phase and you would be wrong if you are in the Shar Chi Phase. The game is random but with enthralling patterns at certain points.
6. Winning at certain points is not the issue. Walking out of the casino a winner is the issue. The difference all boils down to Loss Management.

More to come - bet amount strategy when winning

These are guiding principles I feel will help one win in the longer term. Some may disagree. Some punks may disagree vehemently but to each his own. Feel free to express your disagreement without resorting to personal attacks ya.

 

I know LY here talk about MM not BS. So i ask about MM.

Maybe some people view like you do. But i really will learn about people MM or BS if have, then choose the suited for me. I know not make my holy grail. But i think will make me a better gambler learn from people experience when they want to sharing.

I am not just 100% follow. I will think with my logic and analyze. Like i ever said. Why not learn ? Just spend time to read.

 

This topic by L-y like a breath of fresh air .Well timed .



ND

 

Everything I propose in this thread is in my humblest opinion; IMHO if you like. Its my musings and postings during this pandemic. I hope its understood and I dont have to pre-qualify any sentence I make and worry about the semantics affecting some people. If its old story or old story told differently, just ignore it.

Thanks ND that you find this thread a breath of fresh air. More to come.

Hope you find useful tips here Ordinary_people in your quest

 

LUNG YEH’s MM RULES


1 The target is to make 70-100% of your SESSION bankroll. One could adjust it down to 50% if it better suits your personality.


I know of some who targets making 10-20% per session for their peace of mind. Let me story you about this guy Ben. We got friendly after bumping into each other at a favourite noodle shop in the casino. One day he messaged me to tell me that he has a new strategy to make 10% on every trip and stop and leave and was happily relating his exploits of 4 trip wins in a row.


Unfortunately on his 8th trip, he told me he lost everything including his bankroll!


In perspective, if you have a session bankroll of say 1000, it means you are prepared to lose this 1000 for that one trip. But you are only willing to make 100 per trip. Mathematically, you are prepared to have to win 10 times to be wiped out by one trip? Makes no sense to me.


Lung Yeh’s MM is to make 70-100% of your session bankroll and let it ride and make more until certain conditions set in. Remember, DARE TO WIN.


2 You make UBs to have a feel of the shoe. You make a HPB once you get in the groove and your favourite pattern emerges. If you make your first HPB and you lose, do not immediately make your second HPB.


If you win your first HPB, in order to confirm you are NOT in the Neutral or Shar Chi phases, it is recommended that the second bet shall be 1/2 HPB. If you lose the second bet, you are still up 0.5 HPB. The following is one sequence of recommended HPB size bets if the win continues:-


1, 0.5, 1, 1, 1.5, 1.5, 2, 2, 2.5, 2.5, 3, 3, 3, 3...


Top out at 3 HPB. On a more aggressive basis, you can top up at 4 HPB. On a more passive basis, you can flat bet even. But the credo is to DARE TO WIN.


Please note that the second HPB need not immediately follow the first HPB but to catch the Hot Phase, usually it follows. But the increasing HPB bets need not immediately follow the last one.


3 If you lose, the guideline in the previous post is to be followed ie if it is 4 consecutive wins or less.


4 Lets say you have set a target of 100% of SESSION bankroll as your win target. If you have won your targeted amount, you need not stop. Of course you can stop and walk away, but the Lung Yeh MM is to continue. Continue until you lose your bet. Then you can stop.


5 Even if you lose that last bet but your total winnings is now still more than 100%, you can also continue to play based on the MM rule of reducing the bet size. You can also move up to the usual HPB size. What the Lung Yeh MM rule is telling you is that the Hot Phase may not be over yet so you may continue. So, when do you stop?


6 You stop when your winnings drop to 70% of your highest winnings. Or alternatively put, when you have lost back 30%. So, say, you continue on your winning streak to say 1500 (your SESSION bankroll is 1000 and your win target is 100%). You have now won 150% instead. Then you make some losing bets and now you are down to a win position of 1050. You have lost back 450 or 30%. Stop the trip and leave.


For example you win until 1,300. If you then lose some bets, stop when you touch a net win of 1000 which is your original win target.


7 Make this as a rule of baccarat you have to, and must follow. In your mind. No exception or the Chimp will take over. Like a Baccarat rule, you stand on points 6 and above. Make this an additional rule to help you in this ‘battle’.

 

In pursuit of DARE TO WIN, always be cognizance of the other side of the coin - SCARED TO LOSE.

Cumulative losses creep up on you and you lose your peace and the Chimp takes over.

At all times if you lose 3 times out of the last 4 bets, stop and take a breather. Make this another rule to reign in the Chimp.

Never a proponent of negative Martingale. Its ok if you win but when you lose even one time it’s unnecessarily devastating. Not worth the risk.

I had paid a US$25 deposit to some software guy who told me he can write an app for me in 3 weeks. Supposed to be Us$50. A simple one where I input W/L and the app monitors max bet when losing and prevents data input when lost 3 out of 4 times etc. Something simple to aid things along.

Its been more than a year since ... wth.

 

Lungyeh, for whatever it's worth, I for one really enjoy learning about how one can prepare him/herself to be successful at the game of Bac (mental, physical and all other gambling nuances/philosophies). You've mentioned "be at peace" which I found very true and often made me a winner on those days when I have my best state of mind. I haven't finished reading your thread but the 1st few pages and must say, I'll be back a lot as long as you keep providing valuable content. Also please ignore negative posts, and keep going, because there are many silent readers who might actually enjoy your posts.) Very well done. Thanks!
P/S The "Chimp" in me is very strong at times and killed my "Human" decision makings. What've you done to contain your Chimp?

 

Interesting + progression...

I want to share 'my dare to win':

I target to double my buy-in. Divide into session. You might get all in one session, or grind to 3-4 session. But mostly could get 50-70% in a session not exceeding an hour of play time.

After that a break for maybe 5-6 hours or even longer then start another one. I played once during day and once at night.

Sometime I try to recoup my lost bet, ONLY if I'm already ahead and using my winning to do so. Never with my buy-in.


And I doubled my buy in once my bankroll is doubled. But I choose to stay at my comfortable amount, because somehow the bigger the unit, the emotion is larger too. I guess this part needs to be developed, the calmness no matter what size of the unit is.

 

The Chimp will always overcome the Human once it is set loose. So the idea is to manage the Chimp that it is not let loose. When one loses a few times IAR or takes unnecessary risks to try to win back sure but lost bets or one gets ruffled by whatever the reasons, the Chimp is stirred to life.

Like I said in my latter posts, impose rules on yourself and make sure you dont make exceptions to the rules. Follow these rules as if they are baccarat rules. For example I said, stop playing if you lose 3 times out of the last 4 hands. And if you have a LWLL just stop. Losses have a way of creeping up on you and the accumulated effects can devastate you before you realise it. Then the Chimp takes over and as sure as the casino will be there tomorrow, you will lose control of all your bet selection and MM strategies!

Peace is easy to be disrupted by the Chimp. But it is so crucial to make sure you leave the casino a winner.

Let me tell you a true story. There is this relatively high roller in Singapore. Arrogant persona and his play approach seems sound. Came with S$400,000 session bankroll. Bet @ 3-4k per hand. Seems a manageable fraction so he was at peace and winning more than losing and was at @420-430k. Then he made a 4k bet. Lost. He betted 10k. Lost again. He betted 40k. Lost again. The Chimp is aroused. He bet 100k. Lost. The Chimp is lose. He better 150k. Lost again. He bet the remaining @100k. And lost.

At any time peace can be lost and the Chimp can be set loose.

Besides peace, humility is important. Sometimes when we win on a Hot Phase, we begin to have grandiose ideas of how good you are and so on. Baccarat has a long history of humbling mere humans. . Always be humble to be aware that the Shar Chi Phase can be just around the corner and the Chimp; once loose is difficult to manage; nay impossible even.

 

MM is not the only component in an overall winning strategy although I said it is MORE important than bet selection.

Within MM, loss management is truly the defining factor that will determine whether one walks out a winner or loser. When the Chimp is set loose, controlling any MM is difficult. So manage the Chimp and set rules that wont set them free.

To me, it is easier and sometimes a no-brainer to manage your bankroll when you are winning. But the key is to maximise your winnings within the parameters of your risk profile.

The forum has many proponents of different bet selection methodologies. Mine is simple trend following. The logic is how can one make a decision to bet when it is totally random? . Actually those who say they dont believe in trend ie the anti-trend is a misnomer and a contradiction in itself. Everyone is a trend follower. You either believe there is a trend forming or you believe a trend is coming to an end in which case you are also following a trend in a different interpretation no?

I will touch on my preference later

 

Oh yea Play2win, the Chimp is also set loose when you play too long and are tired. The rule is to limit play time to 4-6 hours. Can we do that?

 

Wipe out in 6 hands...that sound familiar LoL

 

LungYeh,

So your stop point is the last 4 win or lose?

So even you have W-W-L-W-W-W-L-W-W-L-W-L-L

You stop ? Because the last 4 hand is 3 lose although the total is 8 win and 5 lose.

 

Depending on when this happens, yes you stop for an half hour or an hour because this could signal a phase change to Neutral or Shar Chi.

If this happens when you have already reached your win target, stop altogether.

If you hang around to watch, maybe you could rue your decision and you may win some more. But oftentimes, thats not the case. Be SCARED TO LOSE when these things happen.

 

What you have written here describes perfectly how I have played from 1993 to around 2017. When we talked about these things years ago I was still in a set of rules that allowed for the almost all the time loss of peace on mind. And I would allow myself to the let the chimp free in almost every session that I would play.

I needed to find a way to hold on to peace and to keep the chimp contained. Something came along several years ago. I knew I was on a treadmill. I came up with a set of rules that would keep me in a state of peace.

I use to play for the huge sized super trend. I would "attack" the super win streak and leave the casino in a huge win. I even advocated to do this to everyone on the internet forums. It's all there if anyone bothers to read the old threads. I spent years trying to teach people to see the super win streaks.

So what I was doing was allowing myself to grind my way down deep into my session bankroll knowing that the super win streak would probably, and most the time did, occur.

That was me, the chimp, and whatever randomness served up that day would naturally play. I was all about flat betting. You can read all about that in the archives at Gambler's Glen when I was a lone advocate of trends with Spike.

So looking at what you just shared I can see and relate to staying long and getting as much out of randomness as you can for the time that you are there. I get it that after 4 or 5 hours a player gets tired and fatigued from the slow changes of trend hunting. For me if I let myself get tired or if I have killed the casino with a super win streak I must lay off from playing for days.

That is the relatable point that I want to express here. I get wiped out by a 6 to 8 hour session trying to wait to kill off the casino with the monster sized win streak. The same thing can happen if I'm just trying to get back to even with a recovery.

You see I'm monitoring 12 sets of even chance possibilities that make up 6 different groupings. For you Baccarat players it is the equivalence to playing 6 different hands simultaneously. This requires a much deeper level of concentration. Without mastering a skill of visual dexterity this would be impossible.I spend time teaching that mastery. I gave that to the world a years ago.

The advantage is that I can see when a swarm of micro streaks are all bunched up into say 10 to 15 spins in a row. So I'm picking and choosing the best looking coincidences of trends or patterns. All this concentration has the effect that to keep peace of mind well corralled I must get the job done in 2 to 3 hours. I do that most of the time. I can play a combination of two sessions per day if I keep the combined time to a 3 hour or 4 hour maximum limit. Once I go deep into my session bankroll and try to recover that huge grind downward I must really stay on my toes in order to keep with my playing rules. In other words to stay within peace of mind.

I no longer play for the super win streaks. This was a trap for me. I now play like the story of the tortuous and the hare. I get my session stop point and I take a break, I do this because often times I have only played for an hour. One hour at this increased concentration level is easy to keep that peace of mind so important to keeping the chimp all locked away.

If I were to put all this into one easy expression I would say that when the chimp comes out I have lost my ability to concentrate at my best and I start to swing away from my playing rules.

This is why I tried to express that I needed a set of rules that fit me. I need these rules so that I don't lose concentration. If I have all my wits then I can lay back easy and wait for the moments where randomness gets into a position of paying off. That is why my rule to stop funded play on any lost bet applies. I keep making bet selections but they are at the minimum price after any lost bet except one type. When I'm making bets on the table at the minimum allowed bet price I move back to resting and at peace in my mind. It's a temporary state of mind. I'm protected from the chaos and the losing streak. So I lunge forward when the opportunity arises and lay back when it is not there. It all comes down to a game of peace of mind monitoring for me. I'm actually trying to keep in a state of peace. I know if I do that I will get my session goal. I now play to win every session, mostly in one sitting. This is possible and has the effect of being enough. I don't get wiped out by a session loss because I don't have session losses now that I play with 30 times my funded price. I might take a break inside of a single session. I get that you can't force randomness to be what you would like it to be. That is wishful thinking.

I know the real enemy of the game is keeping concentration capacity and waiting while keeping cool, calm, and collected. All the searching for the best trends and deciding when enough is enough is just child's play. So I need more rigid rules than you are suggesting. But I did find out what works best for me. It all started back when I looked at a video someone here suggested we watch by Adam Khoo on trading stocks like a casino.

 

On the M M issue I would rather not comment . I am a strong proponent of a proper bankroll to achieve the projected win goal.


Never enter a casino undercapitalized. Set a loss limit that you do not feel rotten on your way home .



Nathan Detroit

 

I m too old to learn another game like roulette. Everytime I sit down to watch n play, friends will comment baccarat banker-player also so difficult to win, 36-37 numbers how to win? And we will laugh at ourselves...

Anyway, I wanted to elaborate on my explanation for ordinary_people (I will address you as OP from now. Hope that is ok bcos your handle name is anything but ordinary!). I have mentioned earlier that the Hot Phase can and does change to the Shar Chi Phase or Neutral Phase in the blink of an eye; without warning. So it’s better to wind down n watch when you hit 3 losses out of the last 4 hands.

In real life, things rarely go on smoothly forever and ever. If you drive on the highway, for a few hundred miles, all is good. Suddenly there is an ‘immaculate congestion’ and traffic piles up. Same for Baccarat. The Hot Phase cannot last forever. Likewise the Shar Chi Phase sonwait it out. The good times will return.

Yes, the agony of waiting. Unfortunately there is no 2 ways about it. If you have a sufficiently big session bankroll you could do UB but I would suggest not to. Things can drag you on and soon the Chimp is released. Never underestimate the value of money.

Winning really feels good. Get into the habit of winning. There was a study carried out on gamblers and why they hang on to play when they win until they lose. It becomes a high for them to lose. And a habit. The study concluded that it is a form of bipolar disorder.

So brothers all, get into the habit of winning.

And a note of caution as well. You know football teams have different playing strategies. Liverpool play a very high pressing game. Barcelona mesmerises with their tiki-taka passing. Jose Mourinho (now with Tottenham Hotspurs) set up his team for counter attack play. Each team have their good points. More importantly, each team needs certain types of players to play their game.

As in this analogy, I have taken the trouble to explain in quite lucid details the comprehension required to win successfully with the Lung Yeh approach. It needs a certain type of gamers. You have to understand thoroughly the concepts behind every strategy. Be an expert before you even want to modify it. But please dont adopt one part of the strategy and adopt a contradictory strategy for another part. My approach totally prohibits negative Martingale. If you adopt the negative Martingale approach for the Shar Chi Phase, please don’t adopt my strategy at all. Please. Its not set up to deal with negative Martingale.

 

Yes ND. Point noted. To your mind, what constitutes under capitalisation?