Baccarat Baccarat - the best small business

Even though you politely asked Nathan D I'm OK with answering.

It was this last year, this crazy 2020, that showed me a missing aspect to my comfort level.

I ended up on 10% for a session bankroll. There is an explanation for this amount and I will share it again if someone wants to hear it. It's a personal comfort level thing.

As you said, this is about a business. For me to make the bets that work for me I like to use $5 chips. That means each large level bet is $90. I stop at 3 net wins. So my session goal is $270. I need $2,700 session bankroll to stay at 10%. I'm doing this because I discovered that I want the comfort level to range as much as 30 times my base value. I have suggested a very tight 3 net wins or 7 net losses for the Reading Randomness method a little more than a year ago. That works but I tend to lose one session for about every five wins with that confinement.

So I play two sessions per day in order to get what I need from a trip. They have funny tax laws here in the states. If I take my RV then I can't right any of the trip off. But If I rent a car, get a motel room or stay at the casino, get meals away on a trip, and pay for gas expenses then I can right all of that off as well as any session losses. This costs around $300. So I must win at least one session just to break near even. So to make it all worth it I need to play and win two sessions per day. I move around on the one week junkets. I never play more than two days in a row, or two singles days at the same casino in a week. Eventually these casinos comp me free or reduced rate rooms. That helps a little.

So I have these rules to get what I need so that I'm not losing money, and the time is spent actually making it all worth it. This all goes to me winning every session also. I play to never lose a stay at any casino. I will interrupt a session if it is just nothing but treading water and not succeeding. It is very important to seek the conditions for an easy win. The enemy of this method is fatigue. That can wreck the entire trip for me. If I allow myself to fight a 4 or 5 hour battle over $270 then I'm wrecked for the next day at least.

Like I said, I play against 6 data streams. It does not take long to overwhelm my ability to concentrate. I don't have any suggestions over this problem other than knowing that any super long drawn out fight to win will end in me getting tired. So, like you suggest, I interrupt the session. I just look at the session and check to see if it is difficult. That is the beauty of this as a business. You don't have to stay because the employees are still there. You can go play "hooky" any time you feel like it.

Randomness comes in waves if you are trained and skilled to watch for those waves. Sometimes those waves have sharks in them. Got to keep with the theme that scary animals are lurking near by to get you.

This thread is about looking into tactics that are beyond just looking for trends that work. It's actually all about being or becoming a savvy businessman.

 

ND: I see, make sense...

Many thinks that each method have nemesis, and they try to prove they could overcome it....

But perhaps they failed to notice, as Gizmo said, fatigue, tiredness, lost patient etc etc...

It's the emotional thing that does't need gazillions of test to prove one can't win from it....

 

During the action c of the game just watch the Loss limit----------the winnings are taken care off by themselves .

 

In any business venture there are operational expenses to be paid .


Nuff said .

 

Its amazing to read and digest the diversity of views and range of emotions on posts made on this forum.

I have one pertinent comment to make and that is, I would assume that it is a given that whatever posts made is the personal opinion of the writer based on his experience or opinion. It cannot be that one has to include a preamble or qualifier before ALL posts that this is his personal opinion blah blah blah or else be subjected to ridicule or personalattacks. I can imagine ‘This is my personal opinion.....’. before any and all posts. Wth.

And on the matter of some personal opinions that we can only blame ourselves whenthings go wrong instead of blaming the dealer for eg, and suggestions that to blamethe Chimp as an EXCUSE misses the point.Let me say that the Chimp theory isespoused by a professional psychologypractitioner. Yet we can agree or disagree.But the Chimp theory is to explain theREASON why one loses control of one’semotions. It is NOT an excuse. Reason NOTexcuse. Understand? So if one is totally incontrol of his emotions it merely means he has a way to control his Chimp. Or maybe heis a bigger chimp than his Chimp!!!

 

I'll just make it simple. When I get tired I make mistakes and take short cuts. If it's a physiological disorder it probably comes from not staying in my head and remaining focused but instead going to my pleaser center out of typical blood chemistry in the brain. I don't get excited that I get to gamble. I don't get a rush from it. I know that I'm in a fight against getting lazy and going off my planned technique to win. Some guy calls it dealing with the chimp. It's just communication. I just want to know what all the metaphors are trying to say. I'm not looking for a panacea that will fix everything like a utopian gambling presence of mind like some byproduct of a Zen meditation. I just know when I'm starting to get tired and to watch out for what might come next.

This topic must be on the minds of all experienced gamblers and it would be interesting to hear from them how they deal with it. Those using mindless rule based systems don't have tactical issues. They just slam into the wall like crash test dummies. There is no conditioning or tactic. You're good until you are minced meat.

 

I bumped into an American in a Singaporean casino early last year before this pandemic thingy. He was winning at the blackjack table and some people tended to be more boisterous when they win. So was this guy.

I was walking by on the way to the baccarat section when I stopped to see what the noise was about. As I stood by we somehow got talking (its easier when we dont throw vitriol around when you disagree with another’s writings!).

So he was on a business trip to Malaysia/Singapore and I was familiar with some of the names he mentioned. He told me he made his capital for his business from his casino winnings! Long time ago. If you google the Fedex story, the owner and CEO took the last of his money and went to the casinos. Won enough to pay the fuel and saved Fedex. Many eons ago and put Fedex on it road to prosperity.

The casinos can and do provide an option to gather capital and profits. Of course, there are more horror stories of people losing their businesses and assets. Be a student of the game, learn how to beat the game. Start small if you must. Like I said earlier, if you cannot handle small money what makes you think you can handle big money. Big fortunes have been made from humble beginnings. Remember, its the cents that make up the dollar and the thousands and the millions....

To the people of goodwill, stay blessed; you and yours.

 

I just went through the whole thread for the first time. Lots of good information from LY and others. Good thread LY. The Human and Chimps stuff of utmost importance. These are the things that the casino counts on.

I liked when you say everybody is a trender. Unless there's a pre-determined bet selection all bets are based on what one perceives as dominance or patterns or trends. And even then a BS could be based on a trend.

HPB bet ?? We can't see what's coming in a random game so it can't be an increased spread from 1 to ? whatever but a string of wins IAR or greater ratio of wins to losses. The up as you win (UAYW) 1, .05, 1 ...stuff reminds me of The Guetting Progression. Really slow! For me a hot phase is after I win 2 IAR. I'm going to pump my bet by up to 50% depending on what's going on. If things still go well then I'm going to grind up little by little. I never had much luck betting the majority of my winnings in one hand.

Virtual wins can't hurt and can help cool your head but I don't think they help either. Personally, I hate to sit and watch the "would have won" go by.

I do prefer a structured betting style so there is no guess work as to what my next unit bet is. There are different ways of doing it but it should be based on the math and what you want to achieve. JK does this with his "custom Labby." For me it is structured around a recoup with a 38-40% win rate in about 20 bets. If I can break even at that low win rate I am happy. The rest of the time I will profit. The backbone is to take a profit after any win. Recoup one bite at a time.

There is no question that at times we are going to have to dig deep to overcome losses. No way around it unless flat bet. That's where structure comes in. If you got a plan (and the bankroll) you will prevail. We should be able to profit very nicely with a 48 or 49% strike rate.

My nemesis is Dare to Win. I never really "pounce" as our friend on the other site likes to say. Today I won 8 hands in a row. It was my last shoe and I did well previously just grinding up so I didn't want to give back and the last 8 hands I bet 12121212 !!!! It just caught me by surprise and I didn't have the wherewithal to increase. I was pissed so I just left without even seeing what the next hand would have been! LOL I have a MM bet structure for that but didn't use it. FYI after the 4th win I am supposed to be going to a Fibonacci. 3,5,7,9,11. . . . .

Keep it up LY!

P.S. "schadenfreude" ? that's a first for me. good word!

J

 

Jimske, hello there my good man.

The HPB is to distinguish from those UBs that we sometimes use to get a feel of the shoe, if you must. To test water, so to speak. In most cases we dont have to use UB so the HPB becomes your bet unit.

As to the Dare to win credo, I wouldn’t recommend straying to much from the HPB starting point and I did suggest topping up at 3x or 4x max. How much one wins depends on the HPB. We shouldn’t think of what might have been. Really.

I watched a China lady who was captivating all eyes in the room. Pretty in a classical way, she handled the cards with such aplomb, you just want to root for her to win. Hermes bracelet on her right wrist and a diamond studded Rolex on the left. I stopped to watch more on curiosity of he magnetic presence. She started off with a S$25,000 bet on Player. She won and doubled down for the next bet for a repeat. $50k and she won again! She doubled down again $100k. I was thinking to myself wtf was she doing. Player again and she won again. No celebrations. Cool as cucumber. Heavens forbid, she doubled down again. $200k. She stand at 7. Banker got 8 points and she lost! My heart cannot stand it. Got up and left.

Dare to win must top out at 3x or 4x and it must be arrived at gradually so that at every winning hand some money is taken off the table. This kind of Dare to Win as played by the lady is suicidal and should be termed ‘Looking to lose’

Its ok when one wins. But if you lose, the Chimp goes crazy....

 

Fortuna always asks back what it gas given .

 

Further stage of parlay means bigger risk for me.... I dare to say statistically I have 2 WIAR more than 3,4 or 5.....

The 2nd and 3rd is the most important imho, after that you could flat bet decent amount of your winning, like 40% till lose....

 

I first came across this good advice from Nathan Detroit here. He was suggesting that John Patrick's 'Up & Pull' principles were good gambling advice. That's why you see us talking in gibberish about ( 1, 2, ) -- ( 2, 1, 2 ) -- and (2, 1, 2, 3, ) kind of steps. I'm a fan of two steps and a third step if the trend is just clobbering me over the head and suggesting going for it. But it is always take a little and bet a little as you rise up the steps. Even if you lose at some point you still made something.

 

True enough. But 5,6 WIAR not that rare. Flat bet until lose very conservative. Nothing wrong with that. But what happens when you hit a loss registry like LLLWLWLWLLLWWWLLWLWL. That's a 40% strike rate.

I don't know what "up and pull means." Never read Patrick. I guess it means up on a loss and down on a win to take a profit, no? d'Alembert anyone? Stetson Bailey had a variant that I particularly like. He called it +1, -1 FLAT. Anytime you win 2 IAR you bet the same as last winning bet until lose. Like d'Alenbert it can escalate fast and have a difficult time recovering at times. But if you play around with it with your own risk tolerance using % of losses and wins instead of using whole numbers you might find it very workable. Just keep in mind that you want to recoup in small bites.

Straight +1,-1 FLAT on the above ends up with a -1 unit loss. Full disclosure. I don't play this exactly like that. I change the percentages to reduce escalation at a certain point if things get too out of control. Punters may want to use registries like that to see what makes sense for their own risk vs. reward level. Hope it helps.

J

 

UP and pill is a positive progression. 2-1-2-3-4-5-2. Any time a loss occurs the series is over until the next opportunity.


Very simple .

 

It means take a little off on the way up while you keep letting some of it ride.

So 2 units become 4 units on the first win.

Then you bet the second step at 1. So you have your first risked bet at 2 and +1 of the winnings in your pocket even if you lose the next bet.

But if you win the second bet you now have your risked bet in your pocket and +3 from winnings.

For me I'm done with the session. But for those that want to go on you bet 2 units on the next step. But this time you are starting out at no risk to yourself because this time it's the house's money. You are still at +1 no matter what happens on this third step. But this now starts exponential growth. If you win then you are now at +5 if you stop. So ( 2, 1, 2, ) is a very powerful way to gamble. You reach +5 in three steps and only the first step is at risk where you actually pocket a half more. Trying to win four in a row is sort of greedy to me. I don't win four in a row that often. But let's see what the fourth step at 3 units does. You pocket one more making you ate +2 no matter what. If the step four wins at 3 units then you have +6 and your pocketed +2 for a total of +8.

So I figured out a Killer Diller way to play safe with this kind of stuff. You take three independent bets at 2 each that = +6 for your come out bet. You take everything from one of the three groups that = 4 and then 3 from the second group and 3 from the third group. You are now at +4 ( 10 - 6 = 4 ) if you lose the second step. So one group is pocketed and two more are still in play and you have none of your own money on the table. So the next bet is step two of Up & Pull at +1 on one group and + 1 on the second group. If step two wins then you are at +2 for the second group that you now pocket all of. You are now at +6 with another group left to go on the third step. If that last group wins on a third win in the sequence then you end up at +10 if you stop there. So it's a way to pay for a group at one step, a group at the second step and a third group.

That should sound about like Abbott and Costello.

 

RESULTS COMPARISON OVER 7 BETS


Up & Pull


2,1,2,3,4,5,2


If win 1 bet, net win (NW)=2

If win 2 bets, NW=3

If lose second bet, NW=1

If win 3 bets, NW=5

If lose third bet, NW=1

If win 4 bets, NW=8

If lose forth bet, NW=2

If win 5 bets, NW=12

If lose fifth bet, NW=4

If win 6 bets, NW=17

If lose sixth bet, NW=7

If win 7 bets, NW=19

If lose seventh bet, NW=17


Flat betting 2 units


If win 1 bet, net win (NW)=2

If win 2 bets, NW=4

If lose second bet, NW=0

If win 3 bets, NW=6

If lose third bet, NW=2

If win 4 bets, NW=8

If lose forth bet, NW=4

If win 5 bets, NW=10

If lose fifth bet, NW=6

If win 6 bets, NW=12

If lose sixth bet, NW=8

If win 7 bets, NW=14

If lose seventh bet, NW=10



Lung Yeh MM


(1, 0.5, 1, 1, 1.5, 1.5, 2) x 2 for basic comparison

2, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4


If win 1 bet, net win (NW)=2

If win 2 bets, NW=3

If lose second bet, NW=1

If win 3 bets, NW=5

If lose third bet, NW=1

If win 4 bets, NW=7

If lose forth bet, NW=3

If win 5 bets, NW=10

If lose fifth bet, NW=4

If win 6 bets, NW=13

If lose sixth bet, NW=7

If win 7 bets, NW=17

If lose seventh bet, NW=9



Actually makes more sense to do flat betting? How much you win at that particular Hot Phase depends on your HPB. Dont rue not increasing the stakes.

Increase the flat bet amount when bankroll increases depending on your psychological profile.

 

isn't that interesting.

I messed around with 2, 1, 2, 3, 2, for a while.

 

It's not common knowledge, and I'm not proud of it--but I managed a Baccarat Team for a short-while. I tried to tell the investor that he'd lose all his money and that "the system" he was using would not provide an edge, but he would not listen.

It went bust as I predicted and expressly told them would happen and they blamed me for being, "Negative"...

What-cha-gona-do...

 

Here's an article I wrote on this subject.

https://www.mgnccloud.com/index.php/s/MYwKJeEF4sxi3qi

 

To all those who believe that baccarat can be a good business if we learn to master our weaknesses and play to our strengths, I have this quote for you from Stan Lee of Marvel Comics.

“Dont let anyone who has given up on their dreams make you give up on yours.”

When I proposed to treat baccarat as a business perhaps some of those in the audience have never been in business before so they may not know what is required to do business. Let me take this opportunity to list down some of the pre-requisites to success in business. As I am writing this watching my Rhodesian Ridgeback dog sunbathe, it is a flow of thoughts only ya:-

1) the ability to live with uncertainties. Being an entrepreneur in business, one must have the personality to live with the fact that some days you dont know where the next dollar is coming from to pay the salary or the rent. At least in the early days. Similarly in baccarat, you dont know if you are going to be able to walk away a winner for the session. And yet you are able to do so in peace.

2) understand the challenges, your weaknesses and work to address and CORRECT them. In business you could rope in associates who are good in areas you are weak at. In baccarat, I have mentioned that rarely, some choose to work in a team. One control the money and the bets are made in accordance with some set MM principles. If, as is likely the situation, you are alone, set additional ‘rules’ in your mind to add to the baccarat rules and dont break the rules.

3) In business there are many inspiring stories of people who have built empires starting with little money. In baccarat it can be the same. Better still if you can work to raise the necessary capital to start. I have narrated the story of the American who told me his story of getting his business capital from the casino. And also of how Fedex survived their crisis with a little help from the casino

4) In the capitalist business world, its cut throat. The success rate of businesses beyond 3 years is like 1 in 10. The mortality rate is even higher for certain other industries, like restaurants. But know that to survive in any businesses, one have to be on the toes all the time. So if one can fail in business it is equally likely one can fail in baccarat. This forum and others have many postings to explain the pitfalls in baccarat. Be a student and learn. If one cannot control themselves or learn to control themaelves, they shouldnt be in the baccarat business. Then go to the casinos for joy trips with small expense budget.

Getting too long winded... will stop here