Baccarat Baccarats Truth #1

I have found the same notions - if you get to PPP I see P far more than B.

 

Well, if thats true then the laws regarding streaks distribution are worths-less as if you are correct there will be more pppp streak than ppp streak and that is IMPOSSIBLE, hey hey.

 

After spending time on this site I'm down-rights shocked and amazed that the casino hold for the baccarats proposition is a measly 20% or so. If cats on here are any indication the hold should be around 37% or more, bbbbwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhh, hey hey.

 

Are the Irish always funny?

 

Fascinating mathematical perspective for sure. Thanks.

I should've cited the source of that math I provided. I meant to go back and do so:

" 50.35% probability for PPP to chop B, and 49.65% probability for PPP to streak P "

This came from a YouTube channel called "Naser". He's a mathematician and part-time gambler who used what he calls his "Baccarat Computer Model and Monte Carlo Simulation" to catalog the probabilities of results following a couple dozen different pattern scenarios.

His two YT videos are titled:

" Baccarat-Banker or Player-Don't lose your money by thoughtless decisions "; and

" Baccarat-Banker or Player-Don't lose your money by thoughtless decisions(2) "

They're worth a look. I've found it useful. The probabilities he records are about what you'd expect. I regard it kind of like a "Basic Strategy", similar to what you'd use playing Blackjack. In other words, absent any other cues, these could be standard ways to play each scenario.

I mostly use the Derived Roads to predict the next result. If the Derived Roads support the "Naser" probabilities, then I consider it a very strong Bet Selection (BS). However, if all three Derived Roads together support a contradiction to the "Naser" BS, then I'll usually bet what the Derived Roads predict.

If the Derived Roads are inconclusive, then I'll either bet my Basic Strategy, or I'll take a free hand and wait for a better betting opportunity.
I usually do okay. On occasion, I might end a shoe with 4 net losing hands. But most of the time, I'm ahead, with +5 net winning hands or more. Sometimes +18, but usually between +5 and +15. My Hit Rate improved 20% once I really took the time to learn how to read, study, and strategize with the Derived Roads. That's been a game changer for me.

I've been flat-betting with larger units recently, rather than Money Management schemes with smaller units. When you have a greater than 50% Hit Rate, you really can't lose flat-betting. It's taken me many years playing and studying this game to get to this Hit Rate, and of course I have a whole lot to learn. My knowledge only scratches the surface. There are Baccarat High Priests playing in Macau, the center of the universe for Baccarat, who are in a totally different universe than the rest of us.

But anyway, as far as the PPP or BBB goes, without strong supporting or contradictory Derived Road support, it makes sense to me to play the chop, and that's how I usually play it. With PPPP or BBBB, I'll take a free hand if I don't have strong Derived Road support. And when it gets to a 5-streak or 5-chop, or more, I almost always bet for that trend to continue.

Do you have a favorite way to play this game?

 

Nice post Georgie.

I've taken a look at Naiser patterns probabilities several months ago but they are not correspondent to our very large datasets collected at real live shoes.
After all no one mechanical method can get the best of it otherwise the game wouldn't exist.
But if they help you in some way, good for you.

Glad to hear from you that you use a flat betting approach, the only one capable to tell us whether we're really doing good or getting a transitory impact of chance.
Without a verified edge, no one MM can work by 1 trillion of accuracy.

Then, yes derived roads are very often overlooked by most players maybe considered the utmost expression of randomness. But they do not are.

Baccarat streaks on average are shorter than at other games (e.g. roulette) for several reasons, mainly for the average finite key card distribution affecting the results.

I particularly liked your 'Baccarat High Priests' definition. Some (albeit rare) asian players have a so deep knowledge of the game that math and gambling experts statements may go directly down the toilet.

From my part I think baccarat is beatable by taking advantage of several factors that must converge into a univocal betting line. And the main factor to look for is trying to grasp the possible degree of unrandomness presenting at any shoe dealt.

Nice post.

as.

 

Hey, just wanted to share my latest video on baccarat automation.
I think you'll find it super interesting

 

I know that most cats on here are lazy and ain't wanna do any testings or researches. BUt, I gotta know things so I quickly eye-ball the result of 160 in the Lyle Stuart book on baccarat. I do this so cats can't accuse me of picking cherry result what would help to make my case. So, if a cat buck up against these 160 shoe come over the top bet b once after ppp pop then he woulda capture +51.3 units nets profits. Converse, if a cat turn coconut and come over the top bet p after ppp pop he woulda got clipped for -54 unit! But hey stuff and thing like the banker advantage and the streaks distribution stat matter fuck-all, right? It's all just a guessing game, it's a money game all about yer stakings plan and objective, logical fixed placements bets selection and betting flat don't work, RIGHT!!?????

 

I give you credir for being consistent, in that you always manage to make yer-self look stoooopid. Loser player, baccarats no-nothings like you and the limey and that asym-whackjob fool should not be giving advices about the game. Now tell us reatrd, how do you TEACH cats yer bulls-shits style what is just basically guessing and make up shit as you go along, hey hey?