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Baccarat Backyard Baccarat Video Lessons for Oscar’s Grind

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Jae, May 3, 2021.

  1. Lungyeh

    Lungyeh Well-Known Member

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    Judge, nice one there. Were you in the teaching profession before? Hahaha.

    Anyway, I would value your opinion on OG on Banker approach. Is it something you would do?
     
  2. judge

    judge Active Member

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    Yes.
     
  3. Lungyeh

    Lungyeh Well-Known Member

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    The yes is the answer to the second question right sir?
     
  4. judge

    judge Active Member

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    Oops, yes sir.
     
  5. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I now get that we start at the unit size from the VL stop. What happens after we resolve that series that started with the 6 unit bet and reach the 21 units. Do we start a new series that shoe? Do we start V betting that shoe? Do we wait for next shoe and start the Virtual betting?
     
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  6. judge

    judge Active Member

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    When the series is resolved we start a new series in the same shoe or the next shoe' whichever one and start V betting that shoe until
    You start a new series and look for V -20.
    Yes a new series in the same shoe and continue with shoes until V -20.
     
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  7. Jae

    Jae Active Member

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    It’s still a hard thing for me to decide upon. Part of me wants to start fresh with a new shoe, but it depends how the last part of the shoe goes.
    Let’s say the last 8 hands of a shoe are

    P
    P
    P
    P
    B
    P
    P
    P

    the shoe ends, the virtual count is -9 betting 2.

    I normally continue tracking this into the next shoe and if it goes -20 or more, I’ll play it.

    but if the shoe ends smaller, like

    -3 betting 2. I usually ignore that and start a shoe fresh. If it does end -3/2, it’s most likely going to resolve early on before it gets to -20. But if the new shoe takes it to -20, it was probably going to get there without the help of the last few hands from the previous shoe. 95% of the time, we just wait for a new shoe.
     
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  8. Jae

    Jae Active Member

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    I like your style, Judge.
     
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  9. judge

    judge Active Member

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    lol..
     
  10. Jae

    Jae Active Member

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    Here’s an example of the end of a shoe from yesterday: the very last hand was a player and made the count -20 betting 6.

    so we started the very next shoe betting 6 to resolve the series.
     

    Attached Files:

  11. Jae

    Jae Active Member

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    Here’s an example of a shoe from today. As you can see it ends with a player, making our count -1/1. We just ignored this and didn’t track it into the next shoe.
     

    Attached Files:

  12. judge

    judge Active Member

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    What is the largest number of shoes you've had to play in order to complete the series at +20 or +21?
     
  13. judge

    judge Active Member

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    I meant, what is the largest number of shoes you've had to sit through to get to -20?
     
  14. Lungyeh

    Lungyeh Well-Known Member

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    Plot each hand results until -20. Sigh. That’s part of the grind. -10 seems more frequent.

    Trick also is to identify tables that can likely yield the -20, I would think. If the hand starts with more P repeats with alternates and then more P repeats than B repeats or no B repeats then it looks like the virtual loss will accumulate as unit bets increase. Or keeping detailed track of more than 1 table is a chore
     
    Last edited: May 4, 2021

  15. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Okay, so I have gone thru 20 shoes side by side with another placement for comparison. What you say JAE about shoe end and what you might do makes sense. I need to eliminate subjectivity in a fair test. That's why I am picking at the VL stuff and when exactly it is used.


    So start a session playing the VL. When resolved inside a shoe start another VL and keep going shoe after shoe (if necessary) until I get there then continue real at that unit level. If I end a shoe close to a small loss like -3/2 or similar then just quit and start a new shoe with the VL.

    Make sense? If so I will make sure what I have done is correct and send you a sample. It will take me a bit since I am doing something else right now.

    Thanks.
     
  16. Lungyeh

    Lungyeh Well-Known Member

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    No James, he stops at +1 giving a real win of +21 since he started at -20. He ends a series.

    Then he looks to start a NEW series. If a VL of -20 occurs again within that SAME shoe he starts a NEW series.

    When he is looking to start the NEW series within the same shoe but the VL of -20 has not happened yet, he will monitor it. If the shoe ends with -9/3 he will continue to monitor into the next shoe. If the shoe ends @ -3/2 he will ignore and instead start looking for a new series in a new shoe from ground zero.

    The rationale being if a shoe ends @ -9/3 or thereabouts it is more likely to reach -20 in the continuing new shoe.
     
    Last edited: May 4, 2021
  17. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    You guys don't actually know how a several day's streak of strong side Player can occur. This waiting for -20 can have weeks of continuous losses where you jump in by the trigger -20 and end up getting killed. It will happen even if you bet Player or Banker too. Your bet selection process can be rule based or guessing based. You will encounter a several days or weeks sequence of death that kills all the progress. OG is just slowing the walk to the gallows. This -20 trick is just obfuscation that works out from many bad sections but not the sequence of death.

    I'm not willing to prove this. I have tested just about every mechanical contraption that has come down the pike over the past 30 years. Obfuscation does not protect you from the sequences of death. If I did program this it would hit enough to wipe out all the progress. That is the eventual conclusion found in discovery when using any rule based mechanical system.

    I know this makes me sound like a mathZombie. It's not the same. Until you can add conditional awareness to this, like not betting on every hand, and waiting until running out of bankrolls is in a swarming condition, if that is possible, then you can't avoid the eventual paths to many sequences of death.

    It does not matter what your bet selection process is. You will go through phases of when the bet selections will look correct but will in fact be working very badly. You must not fund the bad sections at full price. This is situational awareness. This is Reading Randomness. If you can figure that out then you can force OG to work in the long run.

    Thanks for the video. It makes communication much easier.

    Sorry if this sounds dogmatic.

    Nobody has ever shown me a working mechanical system.

    It's just my opinion here but this can't work in the long run.
     
  18. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I agree with you... to a point. Yes it will and can and does and you better count on it happening. But. . . there is such a thing as "statistical limitations" whereby it will happen to everyone if they play forever but people don't. So, therefore, as individuals it will happen to a small few. Maybe the first time out one will get 24 Players IAR 2 shoes in a row and hit the max bet and lose. I've seen 24 P IAR. And god knows I've seen a slew of P's happen all the time. Whose to say the next couple shoes won't produce such a scenario? It'll happen some day. But for the majority of punters it won't happen given the number of hands they play. That's what I call "statistical limitations."

    I'll do a little test with my 20 shoes now that I THINK I know how JAE is playing the -20 stuff. But right off the bat I can tell you that I see 3 shoes IAR where I can't find the -20. So now we got to think about $ per hour. I guess if you're unit is $100 or $200 even that is acceptable but at a lower conceit it can be a real drudgery.

    I assure you there is a better way to win 4 units a shoe! Even 1.27 units a shoe (if and when, "soxfan the toddler" decides to put his big boy pants on and just tell us how he is guessing the P side. Sorry, sometimes I just can't help myself!) But it's true. Flat betting and getting 1.27 U is a lot better proposition!

    J
     
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  19. judge

    judge Active Member

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    I have to disagree...I have played 20 sessions and i am
    I have to disagree for now...I am +405 in 20 sessions....So that is 2,405 units to play with. I feel good about not losing my bank roll. If I do I'll let you know. BTW, this is practice only on baccarat simulator.
     
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  20. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    LOL!

    Yes it's true that you can go on for months without getting killed off. It's a huge bankroll to make a small return on your investment at best. And it will disappoint in the long run.

    Like I suggested for them that use it. Go for it. Take it into a casino. Learn your lesson. Pay your dues.
     

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