Craps Bank Roll

Forsooth!

Wong gave up on it, even denounced it, I heard.
What method do you advocate?

 

Actually Mark, there is no edge to gain with any system. I think Grafstein does say he brings you to a point where your gambling with the smallest house edge. There are no players who "can do this" ... end of story.

Not sure why you would throw that out in a public forum and then say "That is all I will say on this for now" ... makes me laugh. It's a forum on Craps.

 

Hi, thank you for your reply. 25% hey? Wow,thats some cut!

 

Any system = control-dice-throw-axis influence? Not even that?

 

Interesting question.

I guess first and foremost as a gambler with 35 years at the Craps table - two literally full time - I've seen it all. I have also become a strong advocate in Grafstein's methods of play (not all, and not in a blind all in sort of way but in general)...and there is a few things I think he points out that everyone needs to hear.

1. He says that no matter how you bet, that you're always at the mercy of Vig. The house will always have EDGE on you - no matter what. No one has ever shown me - written about - or explained otherwise. So does that mean that if you win a 50 - 50 bet but only get paid .25c and quit gambling that you are a Loser? No ... but we're talking about gambling long term vs. the house - there is NO EDGE if you play by the house rules.

Does that mean you can't beat the house edge - absolutely you can - but only if you have impeccable discipline first and foremost, if you have the ability to manage a bank roll and finally the "gamble" to hammer hot rolls - and RUN as far away as you can from house Vig....then you stand a chance.

Now - we're talking about on axis Dice Control - covered in another thread - it is an interesting debate. I see Mr. Scolbete recently posted a thread where I believe he shoots down any Dice Influence or Dice Control...unless I am mistaken a complete turn from his former days of writing and teaching Dice Influence.

I see Stanford Wong rewrite about Dice Influence against his original work ... Wong on Dice. Then I see an article attributed to him on his blog - where he talks about watching 500 rolls and a 7.4 SSR...which is very much Dice Influence.

Am I confusted about this...perhaps a little. I like a guy named "Freak" who wrote about Craps and Dice Influence being more like a Religion. You believe - then it is true. You have faith - then it works. You don't - then it doesn't.

So I prefer to talk about Craps in terms without dice influence. I definitely believe if you can figure out the game from that mind set - that DI isn't going to help - to figure out a system of play (and yes I believe whole heartedly you have to go into a Craps game with an ABSOLUTE strategy) then it's the only chance you have.

Any other hocus pocus - any I have a system but I can't tell you - or I know a guy whose name is Pickles and he rolls blah blah blah is all bullshit and deserves less credit.

I see so many " the Emperor has no clothes" type blogs, posts and books that I am not sure if real players actually hear themselves talk out loud...but sometimes I shake my head.

So ... no I don't believe or want to discuss any method of play - where "advantage" play is part of it - instead build me a case for random rollers - take dice influence out of the equation - then set them best you can and let's hope on that particular roll you have INFLUENCE.

Once in every 50 or so throws when you make 5 passes and a few naturals you can strut around ... otherwise bounce them once, hit the wall, make good bets and bet with your head.

 

If you follow Grafstein's methods on a fair table, and are very disciplined about the methods and a bankroll, well I do believe in time you will pull a head in your bankroll. The Qualified Shooter aspect of the Grafstein method is a simply way to not bet when the normal ebb and flow turns cold and bet when hot.

Now if the table is not fair, something that has become very controversial these days, and many including myself believe is a very wide spread issue with casinos, then you have to then rate the table as to what sort of bias it has. Once you have rated the table then you can use the Do's or Don'ts Grafstein method. The method I was eluding to is this table rating method, though it takes time and persistence to properly chart a table out per type of dice they bring out.

I will say this: The NorthWest Indian Casinos have Biased Tables (unfair tables) that run cold. I have seen guys lose thousands on such tables and a few who have "flame out" that is to say goes broke and bitter about the gambling. Even last Sunday I watch a guy run to the ATM three times as the table was just slaughtering the Do's players. I on the other hand was playing a very conservative don'ts and did well but got clobbered enough with the come out seven/eleven to only have a tiny win that session (10% bankroll growth).

The use of DI as advantage play is very conditional. The table and dice have to be just right, as does the environment at the table as well. More and more casinos have simply tweaked the backwall, the table surface or introduced unbalanced dice that will seriously put a kink in your DI attempts. Again, a good charter and someone who is willing to work out a dice set and toss for a bias table may prevail.

Advantage play comes with a lot of study, adapting and tracking. Not every casino is crackable by an Advantage Player, as some dice gurus will lead you to believe. The Player has to study the casino as to levels of heat, win tolerance, environment and what comps are provided. All of this takes a huge amount of time, but is absolutely critical if you wish to succeed in any Advantage Play.

 

Laugh if you want, but this Mark V guy speaks the truth. It is Imperative that you Chart the Tables before you play!! As far as the "Biased Dice" are concerned..... They slaughter BOTH sides of the Table. Everyone says: Well, if the dice are Biased, just play the Don'ts & Make a Killing, or Wait until the Point is Established & "Lay" the Point. Unfortunately, it's more complicated than that. Yes.... There are PLENTY of "Fair" games, & Not every casino is the "Evil Empire", but "For crying out Loud"..... Make sure the dice are "Fair" before you Begin your Play. It's NOT just the Indian Casinos that are getting away with Murder. In regards to Dice Influencing..... Forget it! The trampoline Layouts & Super Ball Back walls Thwart MOST Dice influencing Techniques. Even with a "Neutral Bounce" table, "Fair Dice", & a "Forgiving" Back Wall.... It's still no easy accomplishment to influence The Dice. That Very first Table contact "Kills" what little influence that "Perfect" Mid-air Toss exhibited. Two Sharp Cubes hitting a Hard surface= Chaos. Plain & Simple. Everyone blames the inconsistency of a Influenced toss on the Dice hitting the pyramids. You're DEAD before your dice even makes it to the back wall. For all the "Underhand tossing " artist that think they can "Bowl" the Dice End over end to Maintain "Pre-Set" Facial Integrity..... Good Luck with that!! As that Grafstein Guy said: Just ONE Bounce & I'll book all your Bets!!! LOL Sure, I practice Dice Influencing Religiously, because I like to Control the Toss Mid-air. Nothing more gratifying than seeing those "Puppies" remain obedient while in Mid Air. However, I realize that once those "Puppies" hit the Surface.... They GENERALLY have a mind of their Own. It is what it is!! Continued Success at the Tables, Everyone.

 

So you believe that many or most indian land casinos use gaff dice?

 

Zengrifter, I don't want to start the "Evil Empire", Cynical Bulls--t!!!! All I am saying is that my Local Indian Casino uses "Biased" Dice from time to time. I have also been at other Venues Wherein the Dice were Biased. Bottom line is This: Chart the Tables, Look at the Number Distribution, & draw Your own Conclusions. Unfortunately, what makes things so difficult is that there are a lot of "Sore Losers" that look for any excuse to blame their losses on. This is why the "Biased Dice" Topic is so Controversial....... AND RIGHTFULLY SO!!!!! Trust me, I have been at the Tables with some of the Biggest "Cry Babies" that ever Existed. You know, the ones that say silly things like: Bob scratched his ass & that's what Caused the Seven-Out, or if Susan wouldn't have sneezed the Shooter would still be Rolling. Need I say more? YOU know the Drill. When you see dice showing Considerably more Crap Numbers than 6& 8's, or other such anomalies....... Something stinks!!! When you witness these kind of Anomalies for WEEKS at a Time...... It's NOT just the old adage: Well, The Numbers will eventually "Balance" Out! Yes, You can & WILL get "Fair" Games, but SOMETIMES you have to search a little Farther than what you would Normally expect. I actually had a Pit Boss(His shift had JUST ended) pull me to the side & tell me that the dice were "Bad". I asked him: what do you mean? His reply was: DON'T PLAY CRAPS TODAY! Now why was this Guy being so informative? Well, (MAYBE) because I've known this guy for over 10 yrs from when he was a Pit Boss at another Casino in a Totally Different State. Yeah, I know that the pit Bosses catch "Shit" when the Tables are Dumping, but there are SOME Pit Bosses(Usually the ones with Seniority) that don't give a shit if their Tables Dump or Not(As long as the Shooters are Hitting the Back Wall). They just want to continue to get their Paycheck like they've Been doing for Many Years!!

 

How could you know without "charting" 1000s+ rolls?
1. How big a table-chart sampling do YOU think is required?
2. Is your "charting" designed to access standard deviation, or what?

 

Wow! Why would you need 1000's of Rolls to Tell the Dice are Biased? I tell you what....... I'll continue To do what I do Best, & YOU can continue to Doubt what is so Painstakingly Obvious. Continued Success at the Tables & you can just Label Me as "Another one of those Paranoid Whiners". Better yet.... Just call me a Constant Complainer & Sore Loser! Best Wishes!

 

OK ...
... or, how about you just answer my two innocent questions?

 

How can you chart a table to get Bias? How much of a sample size do you stand there for to get a sense the dice are Biased?

If 36 rolls is the total combinations - I would assume 36 rolls is a One set of rolls...and to get an accurate gauge ... would you say 3600 rolls would be fair?

So based on your 3600 rolls observ...oopps Dice change.

Never mind.

 

Thank you.

Actually using that Pearson sampling-test, it looks like MAYBE half the #rolls (1800)?

Waiting for TableTop to respond. (fingers crossed)

 

I will say Mark's got me thinking - I'm up 100k at one casino and down 100k at another - you have to wonder if something is amiss

 

Grafstein_disciple,

This is the controversy of 'bias dice' that is currently the 'hot potato' in the Dice Community.

Here is what is often what is noticed and questioned...

A Player plays equally in two casinos. Spends equal time playing Craps with the same methods of play and the same bankroll. After one year of playing the player notices the following:

At Casino A the player is slightly up having frequent fluctuation both up and down.
At Casino B the player is way down, with a persistent downward trend with few upward spikes.

The Dice Lords (Frank, Heavy, MP, Irish Setter, eta all) would say that you should have no difference in results between the casinos and would say that the difference is YOU, in that there is something you are doing at Casino B that is different from what you are doing at Casino A; such as getting drunk or being distracted. The Dice Lords won't consider the possibility that the Casino has introduced 'percentage dice' to increase house edge.

Percentage dice are constructed in a way where the center of gravely in each die is off-centered. This will cause the dice to come to rest on some faces more than others. Such things as the dice body material density, the size and depth of the pips, the pip material density, if there is a security key added, the position of the casino logo and serial number, the fill paint of the casino logo and serial number (is it etched and filled or silk screened on) ALL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON THE DIE.

It may take about 300 rolls of tracking the dice to see if there are any abnormal trends. The most common is the higher frequency of sevens with a trend to the outsides, or you might notice that the 6 and 9 are hit far more than normal and the 5 and 8 are way down. 300 rolls should give you roughly 30 pass line decisions. If you keep a count by adding one for making the point and subtract one for not making the point, you should after 30 decisions be no more than 3 counts up or down from zero. With percentage dice what I find is that by the 300th roll, the count is often -6 to -10 with a Pass line win is around 40%!

The Dice Lords will claim that there dice will not follow trends and streaks, so there is no point tracking, but then turn right around say you can have a hot table or cold table and deny that it is a trend. As a final washing their hands of this issue, they just will declare the player to be 'unlucky' and any claims of 'bias dice' is just from a 'sore losers attitude'.

Gamblers know there is no such thing as luck, there is only probabilities, pay tables and math! We know when we gamble if the math give us the edge or not. Counting in Casino comps (rooms and meals), and free play money and subtracting the house edge from our standard play we can easily come to a mathematical number that will show exactly how much we will stand to make or lose per hour of play.

Example
Typical casino table with 50 decisions per hour
My average bet spread is $30:
- $5 pass line, 1x odds and two come bets with 1x odds = 0.8% house edge
This comes to - 0.24 cents per decision or $12 dollars an hour loss.

If after 4 hours with an expected loss of $48 the casino will comp you a room and meal ($30 value for the room and $15 for the meal) plus $3 in points, then perhaps you are getting a deal. Of course this is the baseline, and with game variance I would expect to be up or down approximately $80 after 4 hours. With progressing and pressing bets, will only increase volatility so your expected win/loss will get higher.

Players come to know that there is 'something wrong' when the losses exceed the mathematical expectations. If after tracking play at a particular casino and after a year of consistent play at this casino the numbers are way out of whack with expectations, then you have a plausible case that the house edge is not true to the game, that the casino may have introduced/changed something to alter house edge.

 

I think that 300 rolls is too small a sampling to be valid.
Tell u how you think such a small sampling can be statistically valid.

 

Zengrifter, In my opinion it doesn't take but 36 rolls or less if the Dice are "Heavily" Biased. I've seen "Seven Outs" that contained 75% or Better 6/1 Seven outs. what about when you witness more "Crap Numbers" being thrown than 6/8's for Prolonged periods of Time? I've witnessed some pretty pitiful things at (name Omitted) Casino. Does it happen Regularly? No!! But Certainly enough times to Raise an Eye Brow.

 

A quick way to detect 'bias dice' is to track the sevens: 6-1, 4-3, 5-2
Ideally the three sevens should match each other without to much difference between them.

If you see a heavy 6-1 or 5-2 way out-pacing the others sevens, that is then a sign that the dice are probably biased. I would venture to say that you should know if the dice are bias in about 12 shooters, perhaps less if sevens are really popping.

Though, you can play Craps with Bias dice, it is not in any a traditional and normal way of playing craps, and you could still lose, but not as bad as the ass kicking that bias dice performs on most right-way traditional craps players, or what some are calling "A scalping!"

 

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