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Sports Betting Basics to being profitable in sports betting

Discussion in 'Sports Betting Forum | Sportsbook Forum' started by Kenzo, Jan 6, 2021.

  1. Kenzo

    Kenzo New Member

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    I am making this thread because of someone asking me to start a topic about sports betting.

    A lot of people think there is a lot of luck involved in sports betting. I can tell you, how most people play sports betting, it is totally depending in luck.

    There is another way, which has nothing to do with luck, but is simply a statistic proven way to make money over a longer period of time. It is called value betting.

    Value betting is simply only betting on matches in which you have an edge over the bookmaker. The odds of a bookmaker are building their odds on a lot of statistic data, history results, match setup, crowd betting and so on. Because this is all done by algorithms, there are mistakes being made.

    Your job is to find these edges and play a lot of them. You can compare it with a coin flip. We all know that if you flip a coin you have a 50% chance it will be heads or tails. If you flip the coin twice, it could be that it will land on heads twice. The more flips you'll make the eventuel balance will even out to a 50-50 result.

    With finding edges you increase your chance to a higher percentage as 50, let's say to 55. In this case you know that if you keep flipping this coin with 55% chance of winning, you will end up with profit in the long term. It could be that in a shorter period of time you are losing money because you are unlucky that it will land on the wrong side a few times, but the longer you keep playing with a consistant stake, you will be profitable.

    These are the very fundamental basics of sports betting, but there is a lot more to it.

    If anyone has questions, please, go ahead and ask them!
     
    Punkcity likes this.
  2. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    Good thread thanks for starting, looking forward to reading the discussion you generate here. Cheers
     
  3. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    I will formulate a few questions and post later in my daytime , it’s such a huge subject and is usually only promoted by system sellers that say nothing really but want you to buy their book etc , I think years ago the the bookie buster was doing the rounds.
    Kenzo to be crystal CLEAR
    I’m in NO way suggesting you are a system seller .
    I’m looking forward to the thread. Thank you and cheers
     
  4. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    Ok here’s a question I have always wanted to ask . If the bookies that have been around for at least a century ( each country has them , insert that name here ) and they have sent many a poor boy/girl to their ruin I would assume with the historical procedure in place and the wealth of experience they have in setting the odds , and the question is this , the opportunity to get it wrong would be very slim so how does one find that rare opportunity to bet on in one’s favour? If one perceived that one has found a bookie error and due to the quirky nature of sports your read lost , how do you know you where right and the bookie was wrong, that the bookie lucked it ( for lack of a better word ) and you didn’t?
    You mention algorithms is that the only way to isolate the bookie error in odds setting? It must be a huge undertaking to gather all the information say in the 34 nfl teams , players, administrators, historical data per round per field on one’s own. Or are you using the same supplied information that the bookie use from the net and trying to interrupt it differently? Cheers looking forward to your reply. Cheers
     
  5. Kenzo

    Kenzo New Member

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    Good questions you are asking there Punkcity. It is a little complicated to explain all of these questions into detail, but I'll do my best.

    There are a few ways to find wrong odds. The most common option is to compare the odds of a bookmaker with a sharp bookmaker, for example Pinnacle. Pinnacle is one of the bookmakers that has the fastest synchronizing correct odds compared to all other bookmakers. So let's take an example, if for example we have two soccer teams playing against each other, and the match is in the 70th minute of the game. All bookmakers will have an odd around 1.9, as does Pinnacle, but suddenly Pinnacle drops his odd to 1.4, it means that there is value to be taken of a 0.5 odd difference at other bookmakers. The synchronisation time of other bookmakers are slower compared to Pinnacle, so using some tools you can find the huge odd drops and make profit over a longer period of time by only taking these odd differences. You will see that after a few seconds, minutes or hours, the odd at the other bookmakers will also be lowered to around the same height as the odd of Pinnacle. By the way, this is also the best way to spot fixed matches. This is the most common method for people without inside information, or knowing people that have inside information.

    Another method, which is also used a lot, is using tipsters, for example in Blogabet or Inbetsment. There are tipsters which sell their service to provide you with their picks. No one knows how they get their information, but they do. They will provide you with the picks they believe have an edge over the bookmaker. Which will eventually lead you to profit, but again, over a longer period of time.

    Most of the times, people focus on one league, mostly exotic leagues. Brazil for example, or womens leagues. The bookmakers do not have much data regarding these matches, but if you know someone who is specialized in these leagues you have a big chance to get better information compared to the bookmakers. It would indeed be impossible to analyze all of the matches that would be available. Most of the times it doesn't happen in mainstream leagues, since there is a bunch of information available for the bookmakers, which causes them to have very decent odd movements.

    Another way to do this is by influencing the odds using stake sizes. This also happens only in small leauges, since the total amount to be stakes is much lower there. A bookmaker adjusts their odds on the stakes being made by players. If someone stakes a few grand on the winning of team A, the odd of winning for team A lowers and the odd of winning for team B rises. But what if someone did that on purpose to manipulate the odds to get a better odd on the real outcome?
     
  6. Kenzo

    Kenzo New Member

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    I will add another tip for sports betting, since there do not seem to be any questions ;)

    Single betting. A lot of people are only playing accumulators, which means combining multiple bets into a combination to get a higher payout. You drastically lower your chance by playing combinations. Just a quick example, if you make a combination of 4 bets you would only have to lose one bet to lose all 4 bets. If you played all of them seperately and you would lose one bet, you can still win the other 3 bets, which will result in a total profit of more than you'll lose, if you win the other 3.

    Accumulators are not profitable, single bets are over a longer period of time. But only while playing value bets ofcourse. No value bets (unles fxed games) are never profitable in the long run!
     
  7. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    Thanks kenzo have been busy with the cricket etc. You have pretty much layed the foundation for no more question as it does seem to be a worthless activity now that you point out you can only win by knowing when a game is fixed , then I would presume hiding from the authorities to safe guard you merge wins makes it futile imho. But I get back with a question later today ish. Cheers for the thread.
     
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2021

  8. Kenzo

    Kenzo New Member

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    No problem, I'll hear you later! It is not the only option to see when a game is fixed, altough it is a very common one.
     
  9. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    I know about arbitration (?) if that’s the right word, when you sign up at one sports bet , have a bet , then you qualified for a free or bonus bet, signed at a different agency do the same bet one get one free then use the free bets to bet against your initial bet at other agent then you are guaranteed a win, as per Sputnik thread and other information gleaned here and thereabouts. That’s a very crude outline on my part, it seems to work for Europe, and Americans as far as I am aware, here in skippy town we only have a few online sites available to us so after a week it’s all over and no more free sign up bonuses bet etc. From what I can see here it’s a non longtime viable option as opposed to Europe with the many hundreds of online sports bet companies.
    So the question is are you kenzo able to use the many online site to your advantage? If so good luck to you. You may want to explain that to others as an insight, I’m interested but only as a theory as opposed to practice due to reason already posted this post. I have watched online numerous English based tutorials but it seems only applicable to Europe etc.
    Another question, how without subscription to the two sites you list above would you be able to guess the fixed game before it’s played? I would assume you would only know after the fact or at least 3/4 of the way through the game.
    The parlay or multiple leg ticket, yes is bad odds but it is doable, as an example I do jag a 8leg multi at least once and best was 3 times in one 30 odd week period per year betting on nrl , ( rugby league) although this past year full disclosure no win on 8 leg but many individual games yes a few. I did start with $260 for the 26 week season in 2005 and had not added to that account since as its self funded since then , so imho parlay bets are doable long term. Cheers
     
  10. Arohi15

    Arohi15 New Member

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    Sports betting is a great way to have fun and potentially make a profit. Tiger Exchange provides an awesome platform for sports betting, with plenty of offers and benefits. Transactions are very easy and secure, making them a great choice. Whether you're a beginner or a pro, Tiger Exchange can help you make the most of your sports betting journey.
     
  11. EvanderThornwood

    EvanderThornwood New Member

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    Nice read. I am being enthused about sports betting recently especially when watching races and games. Other than the excitement of watching itself, there's also an added thrill when bets are placed, like if you will lose or win some bucks. But I still believe it should be done in moderation and just an add-on to your hobby of watching and not the main hobby itself.
     
  12. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    You see Evander here is an example of a complete fucktard that only promotes a site and offers zero incentive to be a better sports better, unfortunately they just drop out of the interverse like turds from a rats arse , unfortunately there seems to be a lot of rats in India.
     
  13. Ibrahim Somrat

    Ibrahim Somrat New Member

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    Being profitable in sports betting requires a combination of knowledge, discipline, and effective strategies. Here are some basics to help you get started:

    1. Understand the fundamentals: Before placing any bets, take the time to learn the basics of sports betting, including different types of bets, odds formats, and how sportsbooks operate. Understand the concept of probability and how it relates to betting odds.

    2. Research and analysis: Successful sports bettors invest time in researching teams, players, matchups, and historical data. Analyze statistics, trends, injuries, weather conditions, and other factors that could influence the outcome of a game. Use reputable sources for your research and avoid relying solely on gut feelings or biases.

    3. Manage your bankroll: Proper bankroll management is crucial for long-term success in sports betting. Set a budget for your betting activities and only wager amounts that you can afford to lose. Avoid chasing losses by betting more than you can afford, and resist the temptation to increase your stakes during winning streaks.

    4. Shop for the best odds: Compare odds from multiple sportsbooks to find the best value for your bets. Even small differences in odds can significantly impact your profitability over time. Consider using odds comparison websites or apps to quickly identify the best available odds for your bets.

    5. Specialize and focus: Instead of trying to bet on every sport or market available, consider specializing in one or two sports where you have a deep understanding and can identify value bets more effectively. Focus on specific leagues, teams, or types of bets where you have an edge based on your research and analysis.

    6. Keep records and track performance: Maintain detailed records of your betting activities, including the bets placed, the stakes, the odds, and the outcomes. Tracking your performance over time will help you identify strengths and weaknesses in your approach and make adjustments accordingly.

    7. Stay disciplined and avoid emotional betting: Emotions can cloud judgment and lead to poor decision-making in sports betting. Stay disciplined and stick to your strategies, even during losing streaks. Avoid making impulsive bets based on emotions, rumors, or hype.

    8. Adapt and learn from mistakes: Sports betting is a dynamic and ever-changing activity, so it's essential to adapt to new information, trends, and market conditions. Learn from your mistakes and constantly seek to improve your strategies and decision-making processes.
    Remember that sports betting involves inherent risks, and there are no guarantees of success. Even the most skilled bettors experience losses from time to time. Focus on making informed decisions, managing your bankroll responsibly, and staying disciplined in your approach to maximize your chances of long-term profitability.
     

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