Baccarat Beatable Game?

That nicely answered my question. I now know your thoughts much better than before on this topic. Thanks Giz.

P.S. HUMOR: What's always cracks me up is when people ask me what I think and when I tell them, they disagree with me. My favorite retort is to remind them I can't be wrong about what I think. I am in fact the world expert on my own opinion (As you are yours)

 

ah, what thread is this? That is funny.

 

Agree Kelly can provide the largest gain but requires +EV. The volatility of Kelly is something I don't like. A paper by Joseph Randall compares Kelly with a number of different progressions. I was more taken with Contra D'Alembert and Reverse Labouchere (when there is +EV) for their much lower volatility. Much more stable which is what I want from session to session.

I'm not going to disagree that mathematically Kelly has the largest gains if you can stomach the wild swings, so to 'fix' this it's typical to use half Kelly or some fraction and as a result, this obviously must get far less returns than the two progressions I just mentioned so Kelly is perhaps the bronze standard from where I stand.

 

You are a man after my own heart. I have always traded earn for reduced volatility. I must admit that I was not familiar with these competing bet calculations. You also bring up the good point that all of them only work with +EV scenarios. When plugging in a -EV game they always tell you your bet size should be ZERO.

I have yet to figure out how Baccarat players determine their positive EV on the next hand. In fact I'm not clear that they do. What truly perplexes me is that if they don't, why would anyone ever play a hand. I can't wrap my head around placing a wager I didn't know in advance was in my favor.

 

The ++++ev at the baccarats come from strategically bettin bankers only where ya win better than 51% of yer placed wager, hey hey.

 

That's BIG "hey hey" my friend.

You will need to distinguish between past, present, and future tense...or not and just say something silly about me, which I'll probably agree with.

 

I guess that's why I have been lurking to see if anyone has anything of value to share. Apart from all the bickering, so far the Oscars Grind thread with what Jae shared and some of JK's posts have been the most interesting on how one might attack this game, both claim success using a progression and grinding it out without having any +EV.

The math says no to -EV, but I've seen enough variance in outcomes that the long term probability where the casino makes its money from the house edge is practically meaningless in the short term.

Casinos don't report profit only from the house edge, they collect far more than that due to variance and poor betting vs bankroll. This tells me the reverse must be possible in the short game and in fact I do remember reading the Star Casino here in Australia lost $80+ million in a baccarat over a six month period due to "bad luck" aka variance. They see around $22 billion in action over the same period in their VIP lounges given some players are betting up to $500k every hand.

 

No one ever said it's impossible to have short term positive results on -EV games. I will however add that it's much easier to have positive results on +EV games. Playing Rapid 5-Ways and FlushAttack I manged to go NINE-YEARS without a losing month. Most months I rarely had more than one or two losing days in the entire month playing every day.

 

Nice. I don't doubt your achievements, many would love to replicate your successes.

I agree that +EV makes things much easier to make reliable profit, even then +ve or -ve EV we still have to manage the variance. Whilst it's the variance that eclipses any edge in the short term for -EV, the trick is to tame or lessen the negative side of variance whilst not dampening the positive side too much. I guess that why I'm here, to explore ideas and approaches to the game that I may not already know about.

 

Let's not over-blow my success. I played ridiculously safe things where it was almost impossible to lose. And the effort required--if applied to anything else--would have likely made me more money...but more importantly, helped more people. I fell in love with making money consistently, like clockwork, off of things where other's lost. It was hubris, nothing more.

I am a stupid genius. A successful failure, and several other oxymoron's that aren't fit for the internet...

If there is anyone out there that wants to replicate my success, just say no and do something useful with your life. It is possible to beat the casinos and make money as a gambler. The effort required is such that if you spend the same amount of effort doing almost anything else you & the world will be better off.

@TwoUp You may not doubt my achievements, the issue is that I do. Oh, sure I did all that I said I did, but why and for what? I was so focused on solving the problem in front of me, I never considered the result of solving it, or the opportunity cost of spending time on fruitless ventures.

I have digressed.

 

Sorry TwoUp you stuck some sort of chord and I disgorged things unrelated to your post and went on a soapbox diatribe about me and all my regrets. I am sorry.

 

So, I guess that cats should buy yer book, then, hey hey????

 

It was interesting what you wrote. I do understand where you're coming from, I'm basically the same age as yourself so I've had time to reflect too. I honestly believe if we do anything for long enough with just a profit motive then we can be left feeling hollow. When instead we could have invested our time and our energies on something else that actually matters and has purpose whilst also making a living.

 

Well you are welcome to purchase it. I no longer make any money from sales. I suppose my only remaining motivation for encouraging people to get it is to not have my life's work forgotten. I wrote it as a swan song, with the hope my failures and successes might help the next generation.

I never expected to profit from it, beyond knowing I had done the right thing.

If one knows of a pothole in the road, one should mention it if they see someone about to stumble. This is my credo. I have always wanted to succeed, but not at anyone else's expense.

 

If you are a bankeritis person casino knows that so you will be given a shoe dominated by player. They can do want they want they are the owner of the house. Its my opinion

 

utter nonsense.

 

Imagine they can make some promo games that is hard to achieved in deal card games just to encourage side bets. and other come on or gimmicks just to get more customers.

 

Query, is you any relations to the john-O, hey hey????

 

Bankeritis person is very common in the casino they seem like being order to the end to stick betting banker. So its your choice as for me I dont like that approach . I rather use my Minority betting /Reverse repeat pattern as my default BS. If bet won B6 it will have 1/2 payment but if lose casino will grab your money in full amount. Im new here I would like to share more little know/experience to other new player at leat I share my thought and take it or leave . peace

 

Im from Cebu City, Philippines my english not very good sorry if misunderstood me