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Baccarat Betting Flat: Quest for an Holy Grail?

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by soxfan, Feb 13, 2021.

  1. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    I wasn't gonna make this posting but I just shut down my private baccarats forum and said I would, so I will. I ain;t gonna get into the specific cuz I know that no matter what I say and no matter how much testing I do to back up my play most cats gonna cling to stubborn stuperstitions what will diminish their chance and profitabilties. So, I'll talks generally about my journey from bets flat skeptic to the true believer, from my initial bets flat version 1.0 what I tested for just over 1000 shoe to my much superior bets flat style 2.0 what I'm still testings and has show a profit buckin up against almost 6100 shoe, hey hey.
     
    Sputnik, Punkcity and Roubacc like this.
  2. Bombus

    Bombus Well-Known Member

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    Doesn't matter how you slice it, it's all flat in the end.
     
    letswintogether likes this.
  3. Roubacc

    Roubacc Active Member

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    Actually I think your post has merit. You CAN win by flat betting alone. Yes, let me repeat myself for the neysayers. You can win with flat betting alone! It’s an art. Most people who have been playing for 20+ years and can’t do it will say “it’s impossible”. That is a perfectly normal reaction when one cannot do something.
    I don’t know what dictates your bet selection but for me it’s all about pattern recognition. The long term historical math statistics of the outcome of hands are correct BUT they have nothing to do with the shoe that’s in front of you at the moment. THAT shoe is unique and should be treated as such. In every shoe, there are several biases that can be found and relied upon. I usually bet around 37% of all the hands in a shoe. Moreover, there is no need to catch a straight line run that goes to 13 in a row, or the zig-zag run that goes on and on. Those are nice when you catch one but they’re not necessary to win. I rarely even make a bet below the 3rd line. I don’t have to.
    I consider banker and player events separately and consider their historical characteristics before I bet on either side.
    I will expect a lot of negative commentary on this post since most will not agree that it’s “doable”.
     
    Lungyeh likes this.
  4. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    Yes and No. Pattern Recognition can be one Man's medicine and one Man's poison. You can say your destiny with the way you read the shoe produces positive results and it is just an imbalance in occurance. There is the complete opposite that will gave you a negative bottom line. Patterns cannot and will not be exploited. If certain outcomes can be exploited, that means Baccarat is not random. The House have a remedy for FLAT BETTORS. The commission. Every hand be it B or P, you see only 98.75% return for every dollar bet.
    B win.
    B lose.
    P win.
    P lose.
    B win had a 5% commission.Therefore divided by 4 possible outcomes which will result in 1.25% House Edge.
    This is Deductively speaking..
     
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  5. Roubacc

    Roubacc Active Member

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    why are you assuming only a 50% win rate? My hit rate (win rate) is 65%. 50% is not enough to win with profit.
     
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  6. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    I look forward to this thread for a long time. Thanks
    Cheers

    Lol
    That is epic because most people have no idea what actually can be done.
    Cheers

    ........
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 7, 2021
  7. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    Did I not say Yes and No. It's nice to comfort or gave false confidence to your good fortunes and that is all to it. You did not exploit anything. If you did, people would buy for millions from you your pat hands selection.
    I have said before it's perfectly acceptable to say you have the Baccarat life and seems to be on the right side more than wrong so much so you only need to flat bet to win. That is perfectly an.acceptable answer. By the way, isn't everybody who plays Baccarat is doing some sort of pattern recognition? How is everybody doing so far?
     
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2021

  8. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    Totally agree with this quoted post of yours
    As for negative comments feedback who gives a rats arse what they think really? You know what your doing and you succeed, I know what I’m doing and I succeed, if others don’t believe that’s their problem let them lose. Personally I have offered information but only one or two have followed up , the rest seem to think it’s fictional. No problem to me , we need them to lose consistently to pay the casino overheads.
    We need the hillbilly de gen, it’s like when you lose a hand at baccarat, don’t take it personally you can make a profit but the hillbilly is gone .
    Cheers
     
    Roubacc likes this.
  9. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    There is an old guy by the name of Peter Wu aka Baccarat Kingmaker. His claim is even more radiculous and yet he have a strong following. He can predict hands by the percentages by just looking at the last few cards of previous hands. His seminar is so complicated to follow almost like zen like studies. He even have an official letter from Caesars banning him from playing Baccarat. His circle of 13 is way too complicated. Bet Selection can never be taught. Give me a break.
     
  10. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    Sure thing.
    You have a winner what should you care. I have a winner I don’t care.
    You have a winner I don’t care.

    But rather than hi jacking soxfan thread let him soxfan continue with HIS agenda.
    You are the winner craps and the rest of us are losers.You are the only one making the serious money.

    I at least get the picture and you know what I guess I don’t know what I’m talking about, thank you craps for setting me straight , after all this time I have not a clue about how I have made my cash.
    Oh I’m such a silly fool yeah , you are the infallible one , the all knowing one, you alone know of the Only one way to succeed, oh I humbly stand corrected.

    There that’s not so hard now is it.

    Craps go start another thread and tell everybody you are right, there on that new thread and everyone else is wrong.

    Cheers you winner you.
     
  11. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    Nothing is ever personal. I have said before many times. Stressing what one is saying is like telling people you are wrong and I am right. The whole time I am posting is to find out why people are doing what they are doing whether successful or not. I want to know the reasons whether it is mathematically logical or purely Fallacies. We are talking about gambling. Right now all I hear is I just win without giving a dose of reason. If you say something like I bet every hand when the going is good and sit out a lot of hands when the going is bad will make a very strong case. You can say instead of using higher wagers, you chose to use higher frequencies. I am just trying to be reasonable and that is true discussion.
     
  12. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Most people in this world are confused by disagreement. They perceive it as a personal attack on them. They see criticism. This is one of the common traits of a malignant narcissist. It's also the same issue for codependency. That's a personality trait handed down in dysfunctional families. It's also the primary personality function found in group-think dynamics of liberals that can't reason with others and are so intolerant. They all see disagreement as a personal implication of ignorance. The problem is that they can't listen long enough to realize that it is they that are jumping to false conclusions, a condition that makes them even listen less. You can't reach past this wall. They must stop themselves and learn to listen before drawing any conclusion. But they allow themselves to be triggered and that fires off their defense mechanisms. They have the power to stop all this baloney if they would just not allow themselves not to be triggered and miss the information being discussed. Disagreement is not a personal attack. It is not any implication that anyone in the conversation is ignorant.
     
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2021
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  13. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Agreed. If there's another way to select other than trying to guess a pattern we'd all like to know!

    There are pros and cons to flat betting. It should be obvious by now that if you can win more hands then lose and have sufficient bankroll a negative or positive progression will profit AND increase units won per hour. Though due to probable bankroll limitations not necessarily $ per hour.

    Everything is a tradeoff.
     
  14. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    It seems to me by starting this thread, the purpose is somewhat looking for argument instead of exchanging ideas. Pattern recognition was mentioned and out of goodwill I am telling everyone that there are people teaching how to make bet selections and negativity came in acusing me of hijacking this thread. Wait till the positive progression players joined in. Nobody is saying Flat Betting can't win. It's actually the ultimate grind and it is the hardest thing to do. They talked about pattern recognition but never disclose any examples.
     
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  15. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    What made you shut down your private forum?
    So why bother? No sarcasm, seriiously, what's the poiint?
    I get that people can win more hands than lose and profit after commission flat betting. Looking forward to hear about your testing "journey." When do you intend to start playing for real?

    J
     
  16. cps10

    cps10 Active Member

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    soxfan - I have always enjoyed your posts and your comments. I would be interested in your methods. The problem is that most people are so fixated on what they believe to be reality that they continually criticize and aren’t open to new ideas. Now there are those that continually come on here and spout off about how much they win without evidence to the such. They deserve to be flamed. If you don’t like what a person is posting then scroll past.

    Interested in your journey as well like jimske said. And I believe you can win flat betting. A random game should allow you to pick your spots and profit on them. Some days are tougher than others. But it can be done.
     
  17. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    According to your post, you mentioned you seldom bet beyond runs of 3. This is a favorite among short Martingale players especially in Macau. They called it the 3 bead Road. 8 permutations with 2 being BBB and PPP. They will looked for a choppy situation and go in to Marty 3 steps and only lose if there are runs of 4 of the same. How would you flat bet in that situation? Are you looking for clusters or chops? It do makes sense to flat bet when they are clusters and they do come in droves when shoe is permitting. Is this how you capitalize?
    If you happen to see one and it changes, how many units do you allow yourself to lose? Management with Flat Betting might be the key. Can you elaborate?
     
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2021
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  18. judge

    judge Active Member

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    Soxfan, I don't make many post but I do read all comments. I do this to learn more about this GREAT game. I always keep an open mind when reading post. I enjoy your comments along with that of a few others. I have flat betted for years with some limited success and am hopeful to get better. There are some out there that will never agree with what you and others say and do and that is sad. Many will exaggerate their wins and not mention their losses. My guess is most don't even play the game except to practice online.
    So please keep posting. I may not agree with all you write but I will keep an open mind and read your post. Thanks again .And thanks to all who post. Well maybe not all...lol

    Mark
     
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  19. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    So much for “ not being able to teach bet selection “ seems to me all you posts are requesting to be taught how to handle your chosen method of ppp, bbb.
    As previously posted many have listed the selection process it’s up to the individual to learn or not , if it’s a not learned process then YOUR statement does in fact stand and can be endorsed by those that cannot learn or refuse to learn something that’s not rocket science.
    Personally I’ve done the method you suggested, I see the difficulty you have , myself I could not overcome that so I worked out something else. Many years later lol.
    So let’s let soxfan utilise his thread I will not post via tit for tat with you this thread, my bad for sending it sideways. My bad you perceived the hijack remark, I will just scroll through posts until soxfan posts arrive no big problem. Cheers
     
  20. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    A bit disappointed that the more I asked, the more out of proportion things have became. I rather read how people lamenting about not winning and we can use our best knowledge to find out the cause. But now we have full of winners here. Naturally I am curious about how and why as a Baccarat enthusiast. The only thing left with Flat Betting besides discipline is BET SELECTION. So are there anything we should know about the difference between how bet selection can be optimized? Even it is pure Fallacy or at the mercy of Luck, are there special situations where wins are more than losses. Is it by looking at more than one 'roads' and if they all agree on one side, that's the time to bet?.
     
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2021

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