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Baccarat Betting Flat: Quest for an Holy Grail?

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by soxfan, Feb 13, 2021.

  1. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Active Member

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    So present your findings at MIT, Boston (MA), after all you are conveniently residing close to it and prepare a scientifical paper named "I've found an easy way to beat baccarat as after a PPP pattern any B bet is EV+ differently to what you motherfker experts keep stating and differently to what long term trials dictate".
    Postilla: "In the remote probability it happens I'm wrong is because your samples are not good".

    You'll make millions and a lot of notoriety.
     
  2. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    The first legal casino in Nevada open in 1932 and the Ed Thorpe wrote the book in 1965-66. So for over thirty year the casino in Nevada offer single deck, pitch bj games that were very countable and they dealt down to last coupla few card and allow cat to spread bet all they want. So, who knows had the Thorpe not written the book then perhaps to this day the casino would still be blissfully unaware that thier 21 game was very beatable, hey hey.
     
  3. Ezmark

    Ezmark Member

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    It seems as though the last 67 shoes produced a negative return of about -1 unit . That would be about 120 hours of play. But hey, in the long term as long as I break about even and bank a few free meals I'm good! Its all good!
     
    Last edited: Aug 4, 2021
  4. Myrtlejones

    Myrtlejones Active Member

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    That single deck card counting system was so spot on you could actually predict the exact hands that were left in the shoe, it was the first one i learned
     
  5. Jae

    Jae Well-Known Member

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    That statement kind of actually makes me think you don’t know how to count cards at all. There’s really no counting methods that would give you any indication of what the hands will be. In BJ, since we assign a numerical value to card groupings, we just know if there are more high value or low value cards left in the deck, but that still doesn’t indicate the exact hands that will come out. The only game that you can predict the exact hand coming out would be counting baccarat for the tie bet, if the only cards left in the deck were all face cards, but we all know that this particular bet isn’t really much of a possibility with how many decks are shaved off.
     
  6. Myrtlejones

    Myrtlejones Active Member

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    I am talking about single deck with no cut off, i read his stuff 30 years ago, went through every step practiced his counting, i think it was the last 2 or 4 cards left in the deck you could predict
     
  7. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    Still testing and bucking up against 8276 shoe am lookin at +10 399.05 units nets profits. Also some cats was intimatin that there might be something particular to party poker shoe what allow me to win. So, I test my style against my data base of over 22 000 live mortars and brick show what I buck up against over the year. So buckin up against 4280 ortar and brick shoe am lookin at +4311.3 units nets profits. Now if only I had listened to that squealing, pathetic, loser, envious, bitter limey beta bitch then I never would waste my times testing this NON_STARTER. Oh, also still testing the bet b after ppp pop and that style is shown a net profit of +184.7 buckin up against 563 tested shoe, hey hey.
     

  8. Chip Magnet

    Chip Magnet Member

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    Up until around 2007, the Strip had $25 single deck 3:2 games. Then they started mingling in 6:5 games on the floor and you had to search. The cards were dealt face down, but somehow, I always managed to get the count, using Hi-Lo. The dealers always reshuffled before the remaining cards got too low for the next hand. Great games. I would sometimes begin at 4am and play into the night, with breaks in between. A dealer told me the hold on those single deck games was 4%. With today’s rules and eight deck shoes, it’s around 15% or more.
     
  9. Stephen Tabone

    Stephen Tabone Active Member

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    My HG won more money for my team today. And a new member is joining our team, a whale. He's going to watch my team play a few shoes and see if we can make more gains and then he's going to invest in the bankroll. If should be up to 2k base bet sizes within a few weeks with a bankroll of 150k. Hobo limp lives can only dream of have success.
     
  10. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    Once again I gonna give cats what they want so here some result from recent testings of the bet b after ppp style. Yup, it look like another non-starter, hey hey.
    662. -.1 +227.7
    663. -1.05 +226.65
    664. -.05 +226.6
    665. +.85 +227.45
    666. -.05 +227.4
    667. -3.05 +224.35
    668. -.05 +224.3
    669. -.1 +224.2
    670. +1.85 +226.05
    671. -.05 +226
    672. +1.9 +227.9
    673. -.05 +227.85
    674. -.05 +227.8
    675. +1.9 +229.7
    676. +1.85 +231.55
    677. +.9 +232.45
    678. +2.85 +235.3
    679. +1.85 +237.15
    680. +1.9 +239.05
    681. -3 +236.05
     
  11. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Active Member

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    Again long term data have confirmed that there's no way to get an edge by betting B after any PPP sequence (or any other P long streak, for that matter).

    If your samples derive from the same source and seem to produce this propensity, good for you.

    662. Won 2, lost 2 = -0.1

    663. Won 1, lost 2 = -1.05

    664. Won 1, lost 1 = -0.05

    665. Won 3, lost 2 = + 0.85

    666. Won 1, lost 1 = -0.05

    667. Won 1, lost 4 = -3.05

    668. Won 1, lost 1 = -0.05

    669. Won 2, lost 2 = -0.10

    670. Won 3, lost 1 = +1.85

    671. Won 1, lost 1 = -0.05

    672. Won 2 lost 0 = + 1.90

    673. Won 1, lost 1 = - 0.05

    674. Won 1, lost 1 = -0.05

    675. Won 2, lost 0 = +1.90

    676. Won 3, lost 1 = +1.85

    677. Won 2, lost 1 = + 0.90

    678. Won 3, lost 0 = +2.85

    679. Won 3, lost 1 = +1.85

    680. Won 2, lost 0 = +1.90

    681. Won 0, lost 3 = -3.00

    Total bets won = 35
    Total bets lost = 25

    Number of trials (bets made) =60; W/L gap = 10

    Patterns speaking and even knowing the slight B general propensity, it's like that P 3 streak should be 1.4 times more probable than superior 3 P streaks.
    And this thing isn't possible by any means unless a natural positive variance happened.
    Or that a kind of strong and very unlikely non randomness acted at your sample.

    as.
     
  12. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    Still testings strong, baby; and buckin up against 8555 tested shoe am lookin at +10, 765.15 units nets profits. And tesings against 4555 shoe from my data base of brics and mortar play shoe am lookin at +4714.75 units nets profits. Lastly, still testing the bet b after ppp pop and that style is showin a total nets profit of 288.25 units nets profits buckin up against 839 tested party poker shoe, or about .35 units per shoe. Not bad for the non-starter, hey hey!!!!
     
  13. JacobBlaze

    JacobBlaze Active Member

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    soxfan,

    what was your worst drawdown on the 4555 brick and mortar shoes? Would the 200 unit bankroll still cover you on the BandM shoes? Did you still play an average of 35 hands each shoe? thanks
     
  14. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    The very worst case draws down scenario was -82.2 units, so 200 units bankroll is solid, hey hey.
     

  15. Ezmark

    Ezmark Member

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    Greetings.
    Thank you Soxfan for your hard work, but I will pass on this method. My justification is the number of Hours Gambling Versus the Return On My Time and expenses.. I will do better by picking up a part-time job.
     
  16. fathead

    fathead Active Member

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    When are you going to let me test your system, sox? :)
     
  17. Jae

    Jae Well-Known Member

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    The key to profits with any method is a compounding bankroll.

    If I presented a method that guaranteed 1 win for every 3 shoes; but needed a bankroll of 500 units, most folks would pass on it. This is why greed destroys so many players. Too many people are focused on the small picture. Sure, if you’re playing with $5 units, you’ll be averaging $1.50 an hour—so a part-time job sounds way better. But with such a method, you simply increase your unit size when the profits in your bankroll allow it. I could start with $5 units in that scenario and make a million in a year. I can’t think of a part-time job that could beat that. You just need patience and proper money management and a solid method. That’s it.

    That example would genuinely be a holy grail, but even if you have a method that doesn’t guarantee a profit, you can analyze session potential and configure your bankroll requirements and then incorporate a money management process that hedges the -EV.

    A real simple example (that I’m not recommending) would be a 5 tier martingale. The bankroll requirement is 31 units.

    The typical gambler understands that they need to win 31 times before they are in the green. You might lose your bankroll starting from your first bet, or you might win 100+ times before busting.

    If your bets always remain true from your set unit size, you’ll experience variance in one way or the other, but most likely you’ll simply fall prey to the HA.

    By establishing a parameter with your bankroll management you can hedge yourself above the -EV.

    In this example, let’s say we base our strategy on the likelihood that we will bust 1 out of 27 bets placed. Mathematically this is giving the casino a higher expectation than the build in HA, but it’s just the figure we’ll go with in our plan.

    Let’s assume that we are using $5 units and the table allows $1 increments. Starting with a $155 bankroll.

    After 7 wins, we should be at +$35. We now have the $31 needed to increase our base bet from $5 to $6.

    As we move along, we will get to $31 faster and faster as our base bets go up. If we win 27 times without busting, we will regress back to $5 or maybe even bump our base bet up to $6.

    In that example, 27 wins will have made us $188; whereas by not compounding our bankroll we would have only been at $135 with $5 base bets.

    So if we revert back to $5 units after making $188, even if we lose in the next hand or a few after that, we’re still in the green. If we’d lose just as a base bettor we’d be negative $20 or so.

    In the short term, this may not seem appealing because on the flip side, if we’d lose on the 27th bet, we’d be down -$155, but the base bettor would only be down -$20.

    I made a disclaimer before using this martingale method as an example that I don’t recommend it. I don’t use the martingale in this way, and haven’t really spent the time trying to structure this example in a way that it would be useful to me. Though, if I were… I’d have a secondary bankroll with a bigger base, such as $7, and a third bankroll at $10 and so on for the times that I busted before my 27 win goal. If I were to test shoes to see how many bankrolls I would need to feel 99% safe using that method, I’m sure I would be in the thousands when it came to bankroll requirements in units.
     
    TwoUp, judge and soxfan like this.
  18. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    Um, with a 500$ base units bet yer lookin at capturin about 625$ nets profits per shoe on a bets flat basis. You must have some serious parts time job on a side, hey hey.
     
  19. judge

    judge Active Member

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    Last edited: Oct 1, 2021
  20. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    I think yer onto the gist of it with yer testings and you know that wagerin on players is always a lousy, coconut proposition, hey hey.
     

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