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Blackjack Can CSM be beat because of the "muck" build up of already played cards before re-insertion into it?

Discussion in 'Blackjack Forum' started by KewlJ, May 24, 2023.

  1. KewlJ

    KewlJ Well-Known Member

    Jun 22, 2015
    Las Vegas
    There is an interesting discussion at WoV in the last few days started by a member with an Asian sounding or "themed" name. He is wondering if CSM can be beat because of the "muck" build up of already played cards before re-insertion into the CSM.

    The answer to this is yes and it has been fairly common knowledge for a decade now. The principle is basically regular card counting with very, very, very shallow penetration.

    The poster got bits and pieces of the answer, so here is how it would work. The game he described, S17, resplit aces up to 4 times has a very low house edge of .26%. (hard to find that kind of game in Las Vegas and the United States except in very high limit areas). So with a house edge of .26%, it takes a true count of about a third of 1% (.33) to flip the game from -EV to +EV. Using hi-lo, that would be a running count (not true count) of +2. How often will you see a running count of +2 in a 16 card muck, and some places let the much build up to half a deck (26 cards) or even 3/4 deck (39 cards), making for even more chances of a +2 running count. So the answer is it happens a lot.

    So to make this remotely profitable, a large spread would be required. It is not really so much a traditional spread as two different bets, a small bet , as small as you can make and a much, much larger bet when the running count hits +2 or +3. Think like a 1-50 or 1-100 difference in the two bets. And the thinking always was that casinos didn't care because they had determined CSM were unbeatable, so a player wanting to use a large spread....be my guest.

    So the big draw back to this is 1) VERY Large Variance involved, as you might imagine. It would take a very large bankroll and patience and comfort will the huge variance involved.....for a relatively small profit. And 2) Casinos, at least the smart ones have come to know that CSM can infact be beaten with a VERY large spread, so I am not sure they are completely tolerant of this for long.

    And as has been mentioned, there is talk that the newest versions of CSM have fixed this problem. I don't know exactly how they could have fixed this because to my knowledge there has to be a muck or build up of at least some card before they can be re-inserted. And even if the cards from a round played were immediately re-inserted, which can happen if you have 3 or 4 players and the dealer, it used to be that those cards still weren't immediately back in the mix. It used to take up to 2 rounds before they were. Maybe THAT is what has changed.

    But anyway for those that think regular card counting and everything that goes with it, heat and large backroll requirements, is a tough way to make a buck, card counting a CSM is 100 times worse, for not much profit.
  2. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Dec 30, 2014
    So what's the reason for not playing CSM?

    As a long time card counter I've never considered CSM
    But with proper Bankroll and available spread it seems the odds are as good as Baccarat and better than American roulette.

    I was reading some stuff about using the muck to reduce the HA somewhat.



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