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Blackjack Card Counting of Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow

Discussion in 'Blackjack Forum' started by Moraine, Sep 5, 2021.

  1. KewlJ

    KewlJ Well-Known Member

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    KO would be fine. If I remember correctly, it is a level one count similar to hi-lo, except it is unbalanced with a pivot point, that allows a player to skip the true count conversion.

    I beleive simulations show KO to be just a hair weaker than hi-lo and if I am not mistaken, just slightly less acurate for the first couple decks of a 6 or 8 deck game. But not much really happens the first couple decks anyway. It is very rare a count turns positive enough to place a significant or max bet early in the shoe. Those counts usuall come towards the end of the shoe.

    So that slight difference aside, KO is very compatible to hi-lo in strength and a good choice for shoe games. As a matter of fact, I know of at least one long-time professional player that plays KO.
     
  2. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    • Violation of Rule #2: No Disruptive Behavior
    KJ. Dont worry about. I realize you are incapable. Need I repeat?

    Why block others from making more with your HiLo
    mantra/rants? You are simply wrong.

    RPC requires couting the3,4,5 as 2. This only requires counting the 5 as 2.

    Now put a liplock on your essays and let others be objective. WE ALL know yo'ure firmly planted in the HiLo box. No one cares.

    You dont need to dominate yet another forum.
     
    Last edited: Sep 8, 2021
  3. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    RPC requires couting the3,4,5 as 2. This only requires counting the 5 as 2.

    Im out.
     
  4. Moraine

    Moraine Active Member

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    Blackjack players who travelled often probably have all noticed it, the rise in the number of decks used in casinos is a worldwide phenomenon like global warming. In 1960s or 70s, it was 1 or 2 decks. In 80s or 90s, it became 4 to 6 decks, and it has been 6 or 8 decks for quite a number of years already, say since this millennium. With the prior rate of increase, it is not too far-fetched to say that 10-deck shoes will be coming to your casino soon.

    Questions: What could you do if casinos increase the number of decks used to 10 decks?
     
    Last edited: Sep 12, 2021
  5. Moraine

    Moraine Active Member

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    Before talking about what card counters may do when 10-deck shoes become common in casinos, one may want to know first what 10-deck shoes may mean. Consider this. Say that you have been a card counter using Hi-Lo for quite a few years. Your betting strategy might have been no bet at all or bet only the table minimum at True Count +1 or less, and begin to bet more than the table minimum when the TC rises above +1. If that is the case, you may have some rough idea how frequently you have TC +1 or more when playing 4, 6 or 8 decks.

    This preliminary question first: With 10-deck shoes, can you expect that TC +1 or more will how up as frequently as you had before? The answer is DEFINITELY NOT.
     
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2021
  6. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    Anything more than two decks and Im handicapping horses.:D

    Hope sales are soaring.
     
  7. Moraine

    Moraine Active Member

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    That may have happened to many card counters already as they couldn't find any beatable two-deck blackjack in their areas. But handicapping horses may be even more difficult than using your Tarzan count, Column count, Hi-Lo, Halves+++ or what have you to count 6 or 8-deck shoes, let alone 10-deck shoes.
     
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2021

  8. Moraine

    Moraine Active Member

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    CORRECTIONS: Meant to say: But handicapping horses may be even more difficult than using your Tarzan count, Column count, Hi-Lo, Halves+++ or what have you to count 6 or 8-deck shoes, or even the 10-deck shoes.:yuck::yuck::yuck:
     
  9. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    If I did. I would take drunks/bjtf advice and only bet stakes races.

    Maybe I should add that to my repatoire.:bookworm:
     
  10. Moraine

    Moraine Active Member

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    The frequency of true count distributions is dependent on two factors: (1) The number of decks in use, and (2) Deck Penetration. In general, the TC distributions become less and less favorable as the number of decks increases.

    Example: If the Running Count is 4 after two decks of cards have been played, depending on the number of decks in used, the TRUE COUNT would be 2 for four decks, 1 for six decks, 0.67 for eight decks, and 0.5 for ten decks.
     
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2021
  11. Moraine

    Moraine Active Member

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    So, if it is a four-deck shoe, after 2 decks have been played, good betting opportunities have arrived already when the running count is 4 (as many card counters may have begun to bet more than two-times the minimum at 2 TC).

    But if it is a six-deck shoe, the TC is only 1. Players' expected value (EV) in the game is 0 only. If it is an eight-deck shoe, players' EV is still negative. Card counters must wait for 4 more decks of cards to be played before a meaningful betting opportunity may arise at the same running count of 4. If it is a ten-deck shoe, worse, wait even more -- 2 decks more than the case of 8-deck shoe actually.

    Clearly, card counting blackjack is no longer what it used to be. Casinos have changed and the blackjack offered by casinos has changed since its card counting heydays of 1970s and 80s.

    QUESTION: Can a card counter still rely on the card counting techniques of the 1970s or 80s to beat the blackjack of 2020s and beyond?
     
  12. KewlJ

    KewlJ Well-Known Member

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    No one is arguing the points that you make that Today's games are much worse that the games in the 70's and 80's. This is a point that many older players that I communicate with, that played back then, often make. But unless you have a time machine, those days and games aren't coming back. :rolleyes: A player needs to learn to play against what is available.

    Now in answer to the big question, the one you highlighted, the techniques of the 70's and 80's, that is to say the math, still works. But a player must play much more aggressively, especially in regards to bet spread and ramp.

    Let me give you this example: Stanford Wong's book, Professional Blackjack, I believe first published in the 80's and updated in '94. So if you have read this book you will remember that Wong uses the term benchmark betting spread and ramp. I think his rule for 6 deck games was you spread twice the number of decks played, so a 6 deck game was 1-12 spread or $10-$120. It goes like this:

    Minimum wager $10
    true count +2 bet $20
    true count +3 bet $30
    true count +4 bet $40
    true count +5 bet $50
    true count +6 bet $60
    true count +7 bet $70
    true count +8 bet $80
    true count +9 bet $90
    true count +10 bet $100
    true count +11 bet $110
    true count +12 bet $120

    Now this would have worked for double deck games. Might have even worked for 6 deck games with the standard rule at the time of dealer stands all 17's.

    Now with todays worse conditions, primarily the dealer hits soft 17 rule, which increased the house advantage by almost 50%, this spread of Wong's, is probably about a break even spread. To begin with in a shoe game, counts above TC +4 or +5 just rarely occur. So those $60, $70, $80, $100, $120 wagers, just are never placed. The player is essentially playing a $10-$40 or $10-$50 spread because the TC rarely gets above +5 in shoe games.

    So the adjustment is that a player has to get his max bet out by TC of +4. If you wait any later, you just never get to make those bigger bets. So a player playing that same level would have to have a bet spread and ramp of something like:

    Minimum wager $10
    true count +2 bet $40
    true count +3 bet $80
    true count +4 bet $120

    A player has to get that max bet out much earlier, by TC +4 (or +5 at the latest) to make any decent money, otherwise it don't do much good. Now obviously ramping up much more aggressively, means 2 things, 1) a bigger bankroll is required and 2) the player will experience much greater variance or swings in both directions. This is precisely why a bigger BR is required.

    So the short answer is (I know a little late for that), it is still the same principal or techniques, just much more aggressive play and bet ramping is required to overcome the crappier conditions.
     
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2021
    soxfan likes this.
  13. Moraine

    Moraine Active Member

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    The math and the principles certainly remain, but if one is to use the techniques developed by the pioneering blackjack theoreticians alone, one may get a total burn-out and quit his/her card counting job in less than a day.

    The reason: Those earlier techniques may be extremely powerful and efficient for 1 or 2 or even 4 decks, and may be still good for 6 decks, but no longer for 8 decks with 25% cut off. Even if you have a big bankroll, and are willing to take huge risks, aside from the question of bet spread, the counting techniques used in the 1970 and 80s are simply too cumbersome to execute when the shoe contains more than six decks.

    I read the 1981 edition of Wong's book. It is interesting to note the book covers only up to 4 decks only. I wonder if Wong is still playing today, or is teaching others how to become a pro, will he be championing his "Halves System"?
     
  14. Moraine

    Moraine Active Member

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    In 1 or 2-deck pitch games, a fantastic betting opportunity could arise at any moment. So be ready -- THE RACE IS TO THE SWFIT. Card counters with the most sophisticated counting system win the most.

    But in shoe games, especially for 8-deck games, the race is no longer to the swift, but to those who can wait it out. Simplicity of the counting system is most valued.
     
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2021

  15. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    Yes. Sophisticated cars counts sold books. A 3 column count for deep pen.

    For 60%ish pen. A two column 3-7 count the 5 twice and 9,10,A. Side count the 9 and A to improve IC. Get more mileage out of small TC if 9s are equal to or more than Aces played.

    How are your book sales?

    thumbs up
     
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2021
  16. Moraine

    Moraine Active Member

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    From your counting of 9, 10, A in one column, and also side counting Ace and 9, I can see that you can get the exact number of 10s left, thus achieving 100% IC. (That part is almost like using AceMT with Ace side count to get 100% IC.) But I'm amazed that the purpose of side counting both 9 and Ace is to also determine if there are more 9s or more Aces left.

    Your 3-column count is the most sophisticated counting system I have seen. For anyone up to it, I'm sure he/she can squeeze out the last possible buck from blackjack tables. Salute!
     
  17. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    Well, not quite. I dont side count the 2 and 8. But it provides a higher percentage of large bet plays with a strong deck composition when pen isnt deep.

    The 3 column count can make some interesting situations. For instance, need no to hit 16:when I know the deck is exhausted of 2-5s. And you have perfect insurance with Ace side count.
     
  18. Moraine

    Moraine Active Member

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    In 8-deck shoe games, good positive true counts giving meaningful Expected Values seldom show up in the first half of the shoe. Card counting becomes a waiting game. While you wait, you don't want to exhaust yourself; you don't want to err in the tallying of the running counts; and, by all mean, you want to keep that latest running count firmly in mind all the time.

    Many card counters have found that any of the good old Level 2 systems that they used to be able to handle with ease in 1 or 2-deck pitch games have become impossible to execute when casinos began to use 6 or 8-deck shoes. Most of them reverted to a simpler Level 1 system such as Hi-Lo. To Moraine, even Hi-Lo is still too cumbersome. He uses AceMT whenever the number of decks is more than 4.
     
  19. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    So an example just happened yesterday. The count was 9 -14. This means 60% of the high counted cards still remain. And 40% of the counted low cards still remain.

    Of the 9, 2 A's were played and 1 9. Not a great scenario for my standards. But I knew this dealer would not go two hands on another round.

    Dealers has an Ace up. I have 10,2 and 10,2. I know 3 9's: 8 10's: 1A: and 10 counted 3-7s still plus 2 2's still remain. But I cant remember seeing any 8's.

    I insure and hoping to hell she has a 10 in the hole and not an 8 or one of those 9's. She did. But if not, it probably means beating a 20 or 19 with two 12's and a deck loaded with 10's.

    THIS is why pen is so important.

    The dealer showed me the next 2 cards before shuffling. The were both 9's.
     
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2021
  20. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    Giving the 2 and the 5 the same tags is a wasted effort. Why? Suppose a bunch of 2's come out and 5's do not. Throwing good money after bad at horrible deck compositions.
     

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