Baccarat Craps and punkcity dialogue thread.

There comes a time in my mind that some posts start to hijack someone else’s thread . Sometimes it’s a subtle fine line then it just gets blurry and off track as far as the original poster is concerned, My apologies Zhang wei . No disrespect intended in being apart of sending your wizard thread sideways. My apologies.
So in the interest of not being a hypocritical gitt , I believe I was accused of that before this forum, I would like to continue the discussion with poster Craps on this thread rather than in piece meal fashion across a couple of different threads.
Craps if you are in favour to continue discussion let me know and I will move our discussion we have had so far to this thread . I believe I can move them in quote fashion and will try to keep in chronological order. Hence keeping continuation and nuance intact.
There are some points you raised so far that I would like to explore , more so for my own understanding and not as a “I need to change your ( craps) way of thinking “
A discussion in it’s true sense of the word.
Let me know thanks

 

I am always curious how people go about this game. Most people use comparisons outside Baccarat and every time I sees those I just shake my head. When something is right it is always right. You can only say how right or how good it is. Similarly if something is wrong, you can only measure how wrong it is. But in Baccarat, a right can be so wrong and a wrong can be so right.
Reading the shoe is all fallacies because Baccarat being a binary outcome game ( if you don't pay attention to ties ) do shows a lot of trends and sequences in all forms. I do like fallacies because it helps. Otherwise, we will have to flip a coin. The point I want to make is fallacies only helps in deciding what to bet. The only argument is does the Law of Averages LOA have anything to do with fallacies.
When someone talk about bet selections, it is like talking about the Solar System and completely ignoring the Galaxies not to mention the Universe. Here I contradicted myself by relating Baccarat with something else. Ha! Ha!
Everyone has their own destiny when it comes to a game of chance. My philosophy is always DEFENSE in any form I could think of. I play the game very closely to the Odds believing LOA and fallacies. So when I find imbalances in the shoes that I HAD played, I will plan accordingly. I don't believe in using shoes that you don't get to play as reference because those are not part of my destiny.
FYI there are approx. FIVE ZILLION ways that B,P and ties can be formed using an 8 deck shoe. Yes, 5,000,000,000,000,000,000 ways. That is considered infinite.

 

Craps

I agree. Using shoes as examples is useless because there is no way you will ever play 5,000,000,000 shoes etc. Hell you won’t ever play 50,000 shoes so to base decisions on a shoe that comes out in the past is foolish.

 

If you believe the facts part which is the Math side of things more than fallacies, you can now design your play with that in mine. I gave you an example.
Lets say blocks of 3 . Permutations total of 8. BBB,PPP BBP,PPB BPB,PBP and PBB, BPP
IF , in your past records of shoes played you found out that after BBB, PPP did not appear more than 7 times. So the Math part says according to the Law of averages, PPP after BBB is overdue. Please note this loose explanation only applies to your personal past records of actual played shoes. Say you are conservative and only play after such imbalances have reached a certain level, you can now say the probability is on your side.Again this is the deductive part. The inductive part might might not say so.

 

Mathematically you are correct. However in the other six permutations you are looking at 2&1. This is 75% chance of hitting. I learned a method using these permutations from an old pro in Vegas many years ago at a workshop. Paid a ton of money for it and it worked great. Sure you will get PPP and BBB a lot but not nearly as much as the other six.

 

Now, lets not get off course now. Preference is a very individual thing. I am not specifically talking about BBB or PPP against the other 6 permutations. Even if you concentrate on betting those 6 permutations, you had to chart your personal record of shoes played and find imbalances before you execute your play. The whole idea is not about winning or losing . It's about playing the game with the Math part tilt to your side because Math don't lie. You might not win but having the probability on your side WILL generate more wins than losses after a period of time.

 

I agree with your rationale. I will need to look at some old shoes to see where that goes.

 

What’s the Definition of the fallacy that you use? You can’t be using all of them so therefore you have a filtration system in place, personally I try to find the lazy eye dealer here and recommend others to play tie whenever she looks at me with her one good eye. Especially if the hand just dealt is win on bank 6 half price payout. Is it that sort of fallacy you mention?
Rather than re quote above post by you etc.
yes I looked into the 8 pattern years ago along the lines similar to you. It is works until it doesn’t etc, and the thing I found is old past shoes, my own, someone else, or just made up random shoes have absolutely no bearing ( no memory) on any shoes you play to day or tomorrow . Thus I play what is in front of me in the now . Yes loa and the rest say x should be due etc. but in actuality it may be due but it ain’t showing so you adapt to play what is now happening, yes you can keep an eye open for “ must be due events “ and if they happen sure it’s a part of your tool kit nail the win. But if it’s not happening then you are trying to play it to happen you are not playing what is in front of you.
The reference is many people say that should have been sequenced ppb as it was due.
No
It doesn’t
The sequence is doing what it’s doing in total disregard to loa, vip, your will , her wishes etc. it is what it is. Yes we have experience and tools to adapt or we don’t, hence out of 3 people at a table not all three win yet they have the same information display, they can even chat among themselves before betting. Try it ask there options to your opinion
the opinions mean nothing the outcome is all that matters, as now that outcome is now the immediate past it has no bearing no memory ...but we do , it’s our own cognitive bias that’s in play and you are responsible for your own decisions.
Totally agree with the gazillion hands and have references to that previously on other threads and is another reason to only play what is in front of you. Not what I perceived in the past from running paper plays or sim junkies style.
Yes it’s p. & b I also disregard the ties , I referenced them in my day book and use them as a marker to see where the rng stadium is in reference to when I last left it ended session as I’m about to start a new session, after having a break or return from a hit and run session as you call it.

not so sure about destiny as I’m a relatively one dimensional sort of person and also I’m deferring my belief in reincarnation until the next time round as it’s just to esoteric for me at the moment.
This is just a quick note lol, back later. Cheers

 

I somehow knew you are going to mix up fallacies with superstition. Anyway, the fallacies I am talking about is purely bet selection methods. Believing in past events affects future outcomes. No doubt this is the way most people used but deep inside you and I know its still 50/50. If you look at the mass Baccarat players, isn't everyone playing the game by reading the shoe referencing to past events. The reasoning is simple. If the trends continues, it will allow the bettors to win as much as possible. If the trend did not continue, then the bettor only lose 1 bet. However people seems to manufacture trends of all sorts after losing a bet and that's the problem. They will look at those diversified trends as well. This is what I call poor defense because now you are letting the casino take your money left and right. I still haven't even mention going on tilt. Playing the way you describe which is things that are happening in the present can easily get someone going on tilt.

If you sit out hands by not playing some of the hands that you wanted to play and only play the hands you had to play, the results may make you tilt again because what if you win all those sit out bets but lose all those wagered bets. Sorry I am using you as a reference because you had disclosed to me that you Flat bet reading the shoe.

Now , compare to my approach. Remember.We are not talking about winning or losing. If I were to use a trigger lets say BBB. and bet PPP after my past records indicate a substantial imbalance, I will have to chart and wait for BBB to come and then bet PPP once. This approach allows me to have a clear mind what I set out to do. Its not subjective. Its not see how it goes. Its not I came here to gamble. I don't have to pay attention to how the shoe is. All I want is BBB to come and I bet PPP Hit & Run. Will touch on the Destiny thing next time.

 

Craps, good post.
I’m not taking the word you personally as I understand the generic meaning and it’s a quirky English language thing, I too take the time to qualify the term you on occasions previously posted to the op as a generic term. All good let’s continue.
The tilt aspect is certainly real I would say in myself I’m at the high end of non tilt which I feel/know is primarily due to flat betting. Say I lose 6 flat bets unit , that’s just 6 x $X or 60% of the session bankroll. Had I progressive bet let’s be simple, then 1+2+3+4+5+6=21 units in my situation that’s 2 sessions bankroll plus 1unit from 3rd session bankroll
Please note and full disclosure AND I have posted previous posts this forum , I used to martingale, I’ve done the Fibonacci, I’ve done the up 1 units on loss down 1 units on win etc. most staking plans I have tried, albeit with imho inferior bet selection criteria’s. Bet selection criteria such as the one you are exampling, the history never repeats, opposed bet after 3 ,4,5,6etc of the same, ping pong from first decision, anti ping pong, only followed the last , always opposed the last etc,skip bets , no skip bet , play the last shoe as this shoe , opposite last shoes this shoe, etc I can give you endless results on loa etc because I have poured huge amount of money in the past. I believed it could be done etc blar blar .
Asyou can see the above methods are all very simple mechanical non emotional one dimensional perfect bet selection criteria. I’m not a whale by any stretch of the imagination but the various above mentioned styles (nice word to describe the mention methods) did reap huge amounts of money at some stages.

As posted previously the emotional baggage was huge and in my very real life opinion that vast swing of cash outlay did in ALL AUCTUALITY put me on tilt. Yes I totally agree with your opinion on tilt.
The way I stopped it was by flat betting in my opinion the best thing I did for MYSELF to allow me to continue with this business. I really don’t tilt now as per above $X example is a very easy emotional thing to handle. I have posted in another thread this forum sustained loss of 17-20 odd units in a day playing of a few session, not bat an eyelid comeback next day recoup x units, then actually come out on profit for the month.
In my opinion tilt is caused by any number of these things, undisciplined emotional attachment to a perceived outcome, cash loss , unrealistic ror due to inferior/inadequate session bankroll/ lifetime bankroll , gambling addiction, drugs, alcohol etc you can add the rest as you see fit. Oh here we play 1:2 price payouts on 6banker total which I have had on a grand martingale in the tens of thousands $$ yeah I understand tilt
My answer for me flat bet. Yes boring, but no tilt but I have a monthly profit. Another reason for tilt is most need to have a profit every, hand or every shoe , every session, I ( not me ) didn’t get I better get more money from the atm etc. tilt etc. more tilt can be argument with your partner at the table or on the phone while betting etc.
For me I have a very strict rules as post previously and flat bet , I know myself after all I’m one dimensional lol . It’s not hard but it does require some effort initially be responsible for your actions etc.
Yes I see the logic of your example bbb pp? It’s the most simple application and you have seemed to have mastered your baggage yes mechanical is excellent as always but that is you, and that is me in my ability to profit but not many people will be able to deal with the huge swing involved AND that is what leads other people that reads these forums astray as they don’t understand the discipline that’s required.
You would have already noticed from the request you have received to explain what would you do in this case or that from various posters this forum usually they are the same ones over and over asking the same question from everyone that posts something of value/no value this forum. They will run a sim and disregard your input due to their lack of discipline etc.
got to go. Cheers

 

The lazy eye text is a joke I play at the table in the past ,as you know baccarat is boring per say , but you’ll be surprised how many have run with it over the years and taken it on board. Oh and previous results of pair pair on b and p same hand I came up with “next hand must be tie” lol , wasn’t long before that became a catch phrase at skippy town casino lol . Not one of mine but “ new dealer( to table swap out old dealer) must be tie , actually fairly often and last hand of the shoe tie. That what I call a list of fallacy, no means complete
Cheers

 

Been there done that , is a waste of time imho . You have run enough shoes in your lifetime the results are the same. It’s still b or p or tie win lose or draw. Ergo you know enough by now you just have to be confident, commit a bankroll and stick with it and NOT divert to something else if it’s getting a bit rocky. Cheers

 

Craps.
I like this post and excuse me for edit out the first few paragraphs/ sentences as the focus of my post is on the above two paragraphs . Let’s continue.

sitting out hands etc paragraph,
Another way of looking at this practice of watching skip or paper betting/ virtual bet etc as NOT necessarily a tilt inducing exercise but with a predetermined mindset of as follows as an example.
We are in flat betting mm mode as per my preference
( my example my choice fair enough? )
I have lost say 3 in a row, I had sat down started a session and straight away I’m down 3 units. Factually I do only one of two things
One , gather my day book, pen and remaining day session bankroll and go take a break ( you call it hit and run , I referred to it as break because I haven’t made a profit and it’s one more psychological tool ( the term break) to keep any pressure off the tilt accelerator, working for me thus far )
Two, disengage my remaining session baankroll from the rng staadium
Yet continue to sit and monitor the next set of outcomes for say 10 outcomes, tie not included, with the sole purpose of getting my bearings correct. Consciously aware that it’s a no bet virtual etc. i enter my day’s book and record my win loss over that 10 outcomes of non betting. Remember that’s about 3 or 3 and a half minutes play time. I stop and see how I fared with my selection,a) win more than loss ,b) lose more than win , c) even . If ( a )result good I’m switched on so to speak . Good I continue my break away from the stadium, I have, for me , reconfirmed my confidence within myself as per my selection criteria , I will come back after the break 15-20 minutes and continue with a positive attitude. I don’t lament the fact I had a number of virtual wins and could have recouped my initial 3 unit loss. That was not the purpose of the virtual selection to kick myself while I was down, the purpose was to get myself straight and focused on the game.
If ( b ) results I don’t go gee I’m lucky I stopped betting because look I’d be even more X times number of units down. No because that would indicate that I didn’t virtual select with the correct attitude in place re the attitude described in event (a) Its not an either or attitude it is the correct attitude or not.
For argument sake if it’s ( b) result in all actuality I can decide to call that DAYS session over and go to the beach, or come back after a break try again and proceed accordingly.
In the event of (c) result
option b)sceneario remains in play.
The key here is to do what it is you are doing, in this situation I am ONLY virtual selecting an outcome WITHOUT a MONETARY tag mentality or figuratively . Huge. Huge advantage emotionally to stall any tilt factor.

The last paragraph of your above quote is also covered in the example I have just posted as I believe it’s also a tool to not gamble etc. cheers

 

Let me touch on Destiny. Before that, I need to say something about LOA because your destiny will operate with its own LOA.
There is a major in College called Actuarial Science. It applies the mathematics of probability and statistics to define, analyze, and solve the financial implications of uncertain future events. People in this profession is known as an actuary or Master Mathematician. We have one that is well known in Michael Shackleford better known as Wizard of Odds. He lectures at UNLV and do some side work for casinos and manage his own website. It is not just straight up Math problems where there is a final answer of conclusion. In the complete Math world there are certain things that can only be solved by REASONINGS.

Example: In a whole box of Mangoes, you pick out 1 and it is raw. You then pick up another and it is also raw. Now, you can come to a conclusion that the box is full of raw mangoes. This type of reasoning is LOGICALLY true but not REALISTICALLY true. This type of reasoning is called INDUCTIVE reasoning. When I say mangoes are fruits and all mangoes have seed, then the reasoning is both LOGICALLY true and REALISTICALLY true. This type of reasoning is called DEDUCTIVE reasoning.

Now the important part. It has been proven when things are logically true, they have a high percentage to stay true and that is why a lot of enormous decisions and practices are just based on inductive reasoning alone. Insurance companies and Casinos are big on inductive reasoning.
What I am trying to say is LOA is inductive reasoning and very likely it is going to affect events in Baccarat. Try to look at the Roulette wheel scoreboard. The red and black after a few hundred spins usually show a difference not more than 5 %. What this means is in Baccarat, the B and P should behave the same. Your pattern recognition with any forms will also almost level out both ways. Your variation in bet amounts if you have any will also usually level out with win or losses with high amounts and small amounts. Now that is INDUCTIVE reasoning with bet selection and MM and most likely it is going to play out. It's unfair to talk about EXTRA ORDINARY events because we want to do this long term.

Therefore if I see PPP after BBB say 3 times, the blocks of 3 should have gone 24 times for LOA to be even. What if PPP after BBB happens in only 12 blocks. So the inductive reasoning is to bet PPP won't come after BBB. Why only use your own records from past in order from most recent to older ones? it's because those are what you encountered in order and you are playing based on the LOA of those records. If you bring other records in, then you won't get the true LOA of what you are doing.

I always like to based my play very close to Math. I always have a reason for my play. Sorry to discredit you because what you had explained so far is like saying Look! I know how to fly but I don't know why! i have the skill to predict winners so much so I don't need a MM. I can just flat bet my way to win. Again please don't get agitated. If you can support your theory behind your success, I will be thrilled to learn.
Despite what I have written, this does not necessarily saying it s a winner. It's how I see Baccarat and how I worked out a method with these reasonings. Cheers!!!

 

Correction to the example given. If PPP after BBB comes 3 times. It should take 3x64 which is 192 blocks. If 3 times of BBB is followed by PPP in under 100 blocks, then there will be quite a disparity with the other 6 hand combinations.

 

Theoretically all these makes sense but practically it is very hard to make consistent VIRTUAL bets sessions after sessions to gauge your form. Unless you have a set of bet selection rules that is strict enough. But you are reading the shoe and act at the spur of the moment which you preached. Betting with real money is never the same with shall I say surveying the shoe.

 

Sorry Punkcity. This discussion is never about you or me. It's about Baccarat where both of us have contrasting play styles. I am never about methods. I am all about mindset. I am a poor discipline player. Everytime you are at war with yourself, it is better to change your playing style. Your style of play is too hard to master. If you can control and dicipline yourself that well, I will present 2 excellent play methods for you to consider. I can't do it. Maybe you can. Till then.

 

Craps , I’ll get back to you shortly. Cheers

 

You actually missed the point no bigie
The point of the post that you quoted re virtual selection was an answer to your query re tilting.
The fact one cannot separate ones attention from a non momentarily influenced virtual selection and just a SELECTION is the reason most continue to tilt. It is a tool of practice same as a football goal kicker practice his/ her kick swing , like a kicker practice you don’t practice all day .
As for being agitated, I see nothing you have posted that affects me although I’m a very big NON fan of the other forum you mention nor it’s administrator, for math people that claim math says you can’t win gambling on roulette, baccarat etc they are the biggest bunch of hypocrites around. If you believe you cannot win don’t gamble, if you believe you can’t win because of the math and you spout that diatribe then you shouldn’t gamble then post that they are doing it ( gambling on baccarat) for fun, FUN lmao they’re just degen gamblers of the worst kind that lie unto themselves, poor dumb fucks .
Not directed at you craps. Just my take on that other forum and posters.
As for discredit what I do that’s a no you haven’t and NO offence taken. Im profiting in what I do , I might be one dimensional but I’m doing fine.
You on the other hand seem to have posted all the reason why you are not doing so well.
I found most people are conditioned by the past. A post I posted to you recently was to go look at the read rand thread. I suggest it again but this time leave the preconceived idea that are conflicting you at the door. You seem to want to do something with baccarat. What is it ? You want to fool around for FUN?
It’s not fun losing money and I doubt you are mega wealthy . Read the other thread about the book offer by gizmo, read page 2 the post be the guy with the broken hand , do what he did to sort out what the rr thread is about, try that with an open mind.
I’m not reading a shoe past past past past hands as I play I’m looking maybe 3or 5 hands previously before I play sometime just the immediate dealt hand is enough.
It seems that you are to long time between bet placements with what you do ( I really don’t know, nor do I want to know) and that causes you some angst or tilting actions.
As you say it’s not me vs you , it’s a simple discussion, sure post the other methods you spoke of , but I’m good with what I have , I will look at it but no promises, other readers may need it.
You see if someone one starts to learn something new they need to forget all other things they think they know about what you are trying to teach them, that’s how you learn and learn quickly.
All good and no hard feelings cheers

 

Since you believe you have the patience and control, I would like you to comment on a method which I think can be very rewarding. Most mass gamblers win when there is a long run of B or P. When people looked at a scoreboard and see runs that have passed you can hear them lamenting they missed the train. The real winners are the ones who ANTICIPATE runs and not the ones who only gets in AFTER seeing a run. They may follow and win a few hands with the run but the ones that got in right from where the run starts will benefit the most.

The method is in 5 words. BET BANKER NEVER AGAINST PLAYER
You have to have a substantial bankroll and is prepared to do a Marathon session. Stadium Baccarat is excellent choice because you can chart 2 games at once. You have to endure losses but have enough bankroll to play. You flat bet MOST of the time but when opportunity comes, you have to go big. Since you have a feel for bet selection timing, you can take a chance on 'favorable' situations by betting more because that is the difference with this method. You bid your time to capitalize on a favourable shoe. You never look at short term after all , it's a Marathon session. Perfect method for busman holiday trips.
Let's look at the method. If you don't feel it, don't play for real. This is one method where you can practise with any shoe. It is the ultimate test of patience and control

The good side of things.
Offense : You will be always ON the train of the long B. Never misses the train.
No indecision of entry point. Just bet B after B. All concentration is on the " SHOULD I MAKE A MOVE WITH A HIGHER BET? "
Defense : This is the part that actually make this method good. The ultimate bet selection defense. NEVER bet against any P. The ONLY situation for you to lose is NO SECOND B of SINGLE B. Therefore you won't get hurt with Player shoes.

You will see a lot of break even shoes or losing shoes where there are a lot of single B's. You have to endure small frequent losses shoe after shoe and when you finally finds a Banker shoe, the sky the limit. It will behave more like a Craps game where all you need is ONE good shooter.

I urge you to test it. Good for higher limit bets. $100 to $500 should be your range where you flat bet $100 and can use $500 when the train arrives. GOOD LUCK!