Baccarat Craps and punkcity dialogue thread.

Ok I’m not sure you understand much here so I will discuss this first paragraph this edit quote of yours. This is really stuck in your throat, let me figuratively pat your back to dislodge that obstacle if we can ,if not ,no harm ,you can claim you not choking and I’ve done my best. Cheers
Now I have previously posted this but I will reiterate of sorts again.
from memory and I’m not going to look for actual post , but in reference I said something along the lines of I come to stadium screen load daily betting bankroll, have rest of back up bankroll roll at hand , look at past few hands played as in loading machine as few as 1 hand dealt or sometimes usually 4 or 5 previous hands max . Then I play what’s in front of me. That’s the part that’s stuck in your throat.
pat pat pat
That’s all anyone can do. The past results have no bearing on now. Yes they can have a bearing on WHAT you selected but that’s in your head.

But you exclaimed you have the probability from your (craps) process all mapped out by YOU, over the last few days you visit the casino walk through do you confirmation selection criteria fulfilling YOUR destiny not mine remember. Yours.
Your description works for me, it really does I have done what you do, all of it not with exactly your head but dam close I have Mary the exact 8x3 you posted in all the various probability ways I could do. I have posted that on Dutchman thread . Etc.
The thing I realise for MYSELF and I don’t care if you understand or not the results of last run sim ( yes I was a sim junky, I had thousands of actual recorded played shoes plus thousands of un play shoes you would be amazed at how quickly and accurately I can Log and process a shoe) as stated I done most of the method ever thought up under the sun , yes I’ve post about the gazillion shoes combos etc bla blar etc et all and do you know what it is meaningless.
You have said something like yeah sure you can get hit first off with a loss of all Marty unit 31units , why yes you can. We know that call it the black swan call what you want.
When you sit at a stadium (my example) and using your destiny analogy and it’s probability all factored in that is EXACTLY why I say you play whatever is in front of you. Probability and destiny are already there in MY way of doing this.
It is only ever going to be - or + to me, you see bank or play, sets of 3 etc or whatever it is you use when you are using whatever it is on the day as you seem to change as per your posts , I see - or + that’s it
If you read the thread that’s all I say. Iam very quick on the stadium as per your rather sarcy remarks yes I am I can sum up huge amount of information because I have been doing it for years, thanks to god for 20 second hands the actual game of baccarat is as tedious as some of the posters this forum (no dig at you craps) the profit I make is not boring but shoot me in the head I get no rush no disappointment by the actual game, hence no tilt.
I play what is in front of me because I know all the shit you talk about and it has no bearing because I don’t allow it to . It has happened, now I’m playing with what I perceived to be MY problematic ( because I know what I’m doing, I have explicit trust and confirmation ( you call destiny) in my judgment) best bet (flat).
But here is the kicker this helped me tremendously when I realised that I cannot, no can predict the future result of the hand that is being played right there in front of your very eyes, not by 100% accuracy from probability, hunches, columns , adding subtract, patterns, trends nothing. You can surmise, guess, call it monkey, call it whatever that suits you.
In the end even you craps have to pull out that bankroll to place a bet because your bet was wrong, my bet was wrong and we both appreciated the same fact, we both approached the decision with the same mindset although I didn’t say I had looked at the probability to you before, I’ve mentioned bell curve previously etc.

When you detach from the emotional and take into account everything you know and play the hand in front of you with the best of your ability and you lose . It’s not a big problem. If you win it’s not a big problem either.
If I play on as posted previously etc and play just2 hands yes 2 hands and I stop or I play 130 hands continuously or I do skip bets I have my reasons as posted.
Not for a single reason that you have attributed to me, not it’s criteria that you propose or suppose, they are only your belief as you apply to your self.
I make money, I play when I do and I stop when I do I have reasons that work for me , it is posted this forum, I have losing sessions but I know and I do win back those losses. You say grind how bored , I say profit. Thanks I will take that.
Cheers
I’m not sure of continuity as it’s on the phone, I will check it after posting and do corrections in another post. Later much later as that was a haul, no disrespect implied craps as per usual it’s a discussion and neither of us can be totally wrong or right. Cheers

 

I am curious about your successes and at the same time more focused on trying to explain my approach which happens to engage Martingale. The aim is not about Martingale vs Flat betting. How it developed into a long winded debate about something that deals with the same odds has unfolded and became tiring. We can talk about the characteristics each presents and the effects but the bottom line is each can win and lose. I don't want you to have the perception of me talking about is what you are. What I am saying is Flat Bettors are more prone to deviate or tilt because they play the game with decisions based on spur of the moment aka See How It Goes. Some people are very good with IMPROMPTUS. President Kennedy is one. Debate participants are usually good too. What about music accompanists and Jazz musicians? But if you ask them to compare preparations vs. impromptus, I am sure they will choose preparations.

I have read most of your Stadium Baccarat thread and I must say your achievements are hard to believe. You are having a win rate of 55% and even getting to 60% at times. That is why you are dead set with Flat Betting. I would too. Before I go on, I was thinking of posting a question for fellow members to describe how exactly you win or what makes you win but decided not to because that will create people to think I am getting personal. I am all for the spirit of discussion but some might not think that way. So I just disclose how I see it here.

You need to win more times than you lose. The only flexibility you have is to play more times when situations are deemed favorable like Lungyeh says and play lesser or even pause or take a break when situations are Hostile so to speak. Beside these I can't think of any. Apart from telling everybody that you can defy gravity and fly but don't know why I don't see any legitimate explanations. You can say you have a Good Baccarat Life and seems to have LUCK on your side. Believe me, I will totally accept that explanation. It is 100% possible for someone to have more rights than wrongs with B and P in his lifetime. Anyway the casino has a remedy for that which is the House Edge. Come to think of it , your approach is very similar to a total beginner. Believe me, beginners wins all the time. That is how they get hooked. They don't know what a scoreboard is. Even if they look at past hands they don't look far just like you. They Flat Bet a lot don't they?

There is no debate when it comes to gambling. Whatever you do, you can win. Nowadays most people actually gamble for the sake of gambling. They have disposable income. They like to be pampered with freebies. Its entertainment to them although it can get expensive. But if you are a thinking player that refuses to give up gambling or would like some side income., you have to get your record straight. What are your expectations. What is your mindset? If you have the nerves of steel , be like PUNKCITY. If you have problem with organising, discipline and control, be like CRAPS.

I will leave it all here and it's a pleasure to discuss with you on such a complicated subject. Go Straya! Need to go to Maccas!

 

Here in skippy township on skippy island we would say “you on the rags son?”
It is an epic sentence from a skippy because on one hand we are asking a question “ you on the rags son?” And with the other hand we are making a statement , it’s up to the recipient to get offended or not. It’s a double slap.

But all joking aside did you just go on tilt in the above quote of your post. ?

Sort of looks like it to me. It’s been a hot day at the beach today.
Oh
Am I supposed to be offended,by that quote hopefully that’s not what I read it to mean , but if it is sozz, but I’m not offended in the least. I do realise there can be a different in the sense of humour let’s call it a culture difference, yeah.
Epic
I will address the rest of your post later, good post by the way. Has lots of mileage on the subject matter you present. Cheers

 

Craps when you do your survey of the casino prior to your play ( reference being your destiny protocol) do you just look at the screen as you walk around?
How many casino are you taking in on the pre survey? I assume your in Vegas ( living) or are you a traveler on weekend? It’s not a loaded question. When you look at the screen are you relying on memory or do you actually log your observation?
On your work day at the casino ( I assume you are there professional and not recreational comp gathering) are you recording you hand s you bet on? Or are you relying on the the chip tally to tell you your session progress at the close of business?
Do you mind relating that information.?
Cheers

 

I guess I’m not the only one that can achieve above 50% , who would have thought. Cheers

 

On tilt? No way mate. Maybe my passion for Baccarat makes me sound like I am on tilt. In the US it is normal to speak your mind especially opinion on a subject. People mostly don't get offended unless you call out names or bring family members in.

 

You know, with your records, there are big shots that will hire you for staking. Seriously.

 

I don't try to control my destiny. I like to use Random UX app on my Android phone. I used to live in Eastern USA but moved to Vegas for 16 years now so that I can be at the casinos like routine work. I like to play Golf. No rain in Vegas and price of living is inexpensive. Housing is cheap and above all, no state tax. My daily shoes records are golden to me. Even if I am done playing winning the 8 units, I keep on charting thinking if I were to play, I will be on those shoes. I am a noob when it comes to computer. Right now still trying to find a programmer that can simplify my homework. I need a search tool to pin point when a 5 bet selection actually happens and it's frequencies.
Stadium Baccarat with live dealers is my game of choice.A lot of waiting between my hands. Hit & Run or Hit &Wait to be exact.
Make most of my $$$ stock trading but Baccarat do pay all the expenses. Living the American Dream. What about you?

 

Why?
I bet unit of $500 , the limit is a $1000, when I’m on a win streak I can open ,and often do , another screen one each side of me. Cannot see your point
I had posted previously why bother interaction with partners, friends, waitresses staff etc.
I’m my own boss on this no answer to shareholders. Why add drama?
Why haven’t you syndicated? Your strike rate is win win. Instead of the $25 or the $30 unit you say you use why not get partners and up your unit value maybe $500 , apart from the costs I cannot see that as viable for you either , as table limit etc and then when you break the bet unit down your really only get your unit share of the bank roll anyway . You do the math with ten partners at $25 unit bankroll each. You are still only making $25 plus zero extra in grief money.
No it’s better dealing with your own ahole rather that the other 9 aholes as well. They will always question why you bet when and where you did , winning no problem, throw a couple of losses in and you get more tilts than a pinball parlour.

It’s better to be a dictator of your own bankroll and your decision is final on bet placement , you own the profit you own the loss no one complaint forever and the day afterwards.
You see the syndicated players on weekends , win no problem but when they lose ohhh sore bitches they have lost maybe a grand on the slots go figure. Cheers

 

You are talking about partnerships.
No way. All partnerships failed
I am talking about staking where you get paid when you win and risk nothing when you lose. Some required you to lose a very small percentage though.
They are people that came out with ideas how to profit from casinos and now they found loop holes.
Casinos can't actually do anything now but they are making adjustments. I elaborate later. Something to do with comps and kickbacks.

 

I read about it and roped in some well heeled friends to co-invest with me to finance some good baccarat players.

I followed on some forums the posters and then identified a few. One said no. One said he dont travel and one was negotiating. It had to be in Asia where we can arrange funding by Junkets for monitoring since they will assign a staff to follow you around.

I had never done it before but believed it was do-able. So in order to test, I funded someone to play in the US based on trust. I remitted the money and depended on him to account for it. How much more trust can I demonstrate? As events would show, it was complete naivety. All gone in a puff. No reports ever given.

So I told my friends that the project kis not do-able and we abandoned it. Pity. Maybe I will look again at it at an appropriate time. But no nego. To be done in Asia.

 

Junkets provide comps and they get commission from the casinos. As a customer you get kickbacks or get promotional chips that you can't cash out but once you win with it, it can be converted to cash chips. Kickbacks are usually 5% and 10% if you lose a lot. Since the House Edge is 1+% therefore if a syndicate is form, they will be focusing on this difference. As long as they break even, the kickbacks makes the difference. How they carry out I am not too sure. They need fresh faces to actually sit down to play the game with their money. From the casino standpoint, it doesn't really matter because they are ready to gave kickbacks anyway. It doesn't matter who the recipient is as long as you lose, you get kickbacks. But they don't like it when people form a syndicate to try to even out the wins and losses to get the kickbacks.

 

You mean people play to even out the win/losses to get the kickbacks?

Nah, I was talking about funders backing a particular person to play and split the winnings 60:40 or 70:30.

Not into plans to get freebies and rolling commission. Sure way to the morgue

 

That is exactly what it is. They roll high. Kickbacks are huge. How they operate I am not sure. Staking is involved too.
Another purpose is to launder money. Declare the wins and hide the losses. Casinos frequently gets fined for this for not disclosing clients losses. They are not obligated to though.

 

Here we have airtasker, you submit the job requirements this example programme for 5 bet track etc , then you will get quotes from all over the areas you specifically stats. Cheap efficient way of getting job done. I think it’s available in USA , but you should be able to source world wide ( maybe not Eastern Europe)) as can be dealt with over the interverse.
As a discussion I found staying at the console after I had decided to stop ( as a break from play per my rules etc) I found it was a potential trigger in tilting. The simple way I found to break it , was to walk away for 15 mins to total sever the emotional link . THEN come back with a different relaxed mindset look back on the history of game I left THEN do the appraisal you referred to in quote, became a excellent aid in mental discipline. In so speaking after a while it actually increases the speed that you mentally evaluate and process data( hands dealt) .
Golden shoes this is how I manufactured my own probability in terms of my style.
I gravitated away from live dealing stadium baccarat for a number of reasons posted, but as a relevance to this thread , one of the reasons I left dealer type shoes is the Finite value of the shoe. It has a beginning middle and end. As we all try to do whatever we individually do to earn our living we are actuall constrained by that limit, similar to life I suppose birth, middle life, death.
Initially I worked with that , then I came to realise the value of an Infinite shoe (as we both agree there are gazillions of possible outcomes re baccarat etc.) you call it self manufacturered probability as one of the protocols you employ to distinguish yourself from other Marty men . I too recognised it long ago and then found I can access that by playing the long rng infinity game.
At 20 seconds a hand plus 10 second to pay reset the next hand and deal etc I have physically seen and played the stadium in hondreds of thousands hands played. I would not have been able to access that range on a live dealer shoe or stadium dealing six or more shoes simultaneously imho .
You may want to look into that if you have time. Cheers

 

Yes it’s a laundry tactic here also, I’m not opposed to it ,but I no longer really run in those circles anymore and I don’t wish to. To be honest they are a necessity in this industry as it keeps the focus away from the rest of us, all good

 

100% agreement
I personally never get why people SOLELY gamble to get perks, it’s much cheaper to buy/ pay yourself .Yes I do accept perks as you do accrue points during play etc , but to start gambling for the sole reason of getting comped as many posters this forum post , present posters no inference intended.
Just pay for the hotel and have fun dam fools way cheaper than development of another addiction. Cheers

 

Yes this is big business here but they junket organiser, seem to come and go like the tides , I think you need to have a specific personality from what I’ve seen. I have spoken to my host in the past as I used to say he would be excellent at that . He said it’s demanding and he couldn’t reconcile bringing people here to lose money, then when they run out as they all do for some reason or other having to drop them as are now no longer a cash cow. Once again I see the need for them in our industry as previously posted etc.
Not only am I pragmatic I’m also quite one dimensional, cheers
Good post by the way.

 

Yes understand your post .
I think I would stay solo as stated, even some business men look legal you actually don’t know them for sure and you could find yourself on their wrong side and end up worst for wear. Cheers

 

Unfortunate, you made the choice to bankroll a nutjob and coconut, hey hey.