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Craps Craps Betting Strategy by David Gregory: A Craps Strategy Definitely Worth a Try

Discussion in 'Craps Forum' started by David Gregory, Oct 8, 2021.

  1. David Gregory

    David Gregory Active Member

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    Do you by any chance have a formula for figuring what bankroll is required? I am testing something that requires a 10 step Martingale. Thanks
     
  2. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    David;

    in regard to Martingale, as a first step among many, I suggest this;
    as a bit of context, imagine a game structure that has an attack + recovery

    attack -- requires one hit to profit
    determine how far / how many spins / what's the still acceptable exposition as a threshold to the recovery

    recovery -- requires two or more hits to recover
    although purely speaking recovery begins at the first no-hit spins resulting in negative or exposition;

    upon determining the acceptable exposition threshold, switch into the recovery mode dropping the linear/exponential vertical progression amount to the point where two relatively nearby hits in terms of spins & contingent on the district (=EC,DZ,DS,..) player or payout, brings the game into positie again; → reset & restart

    this will prevent wild vertical progression dimension escalation, reduce the drawdowns keeping'em recoverable, & shrink the bankroll requirement



    Since you playing EC only the hits would have to be 2-3 in a row, example
    attack -- 2-4x spins Marty, no-hit at all of them either (-3,-5,-7) .. whatever determined as a threshold
    would now be reached
    recovery -- from now 2-3 hits are required to profit; assess the exposition amount & bet accordingly
    eg. (-7) → 2x (+4) = (+8, total +1)



    On EC district you have plenty of series of 2x, 3x, then a bit less 4x, 5x, & even less onwards, but 2x & 3x are numerous along the way -- may that be either repeats or chops, essentially both are repeats of a different dynamic.


    How can you use those in the staking plan to effectuate the attack+recovery [1 hit, 2-3 hits] concept.



    Here's more:


    Also, using the progression -- can you expand it either way .. not just into the negative side, but push into the positive side two; once you make a unit or two, can you on occasion leverage those pressing to get even more casino money. The staking plan is thus more balanced.

    In essence, when you are using 2-3 hits in the recovery, isn't the 2nd hit actually a press -- a positive progression, a press actually, hidden in a negative ..


    Can you run two concurrent games simultaneously; one geared for repeats, the other for chops.
     
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2021
  3. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    *2-4x spins Marty, no-hit at all of them either (-3,-7,-15)
     
  4. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    The only dice styles that I recall shown the longs term profit are the Pittspurgh Johnnie and the Mad Prof short leash don't style. Ultimately, the baccarat is yer best bet for winnings longs term cuz the bankers bet gonna pop at better than 50 percents, hey hey.
     
  5. David Gregory

    David Gregory Active Member

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    However, in Craps, both the Pass and Don't Pass line average a 50% hit all the time. Except, neither line requires a 5% commission.
     
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2021
  6. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    Craps is very much recreational for me, the decision time on the EC and low table limits vs Baccarat tend to kill craps as a daily paycheck.

    I do love craps though and present lots of strategies and ideas on my YouTube channel, including building a bankroll from $100 to $10k, same ratio as $1k to $100k. It is surprising how modest targets vs bankroll can steadily lock in wins just surfing the variance to grow the overall bankroll.

    Here in Australia the limits on Baccarat go beyond $500k vs $4k for craps ($8k if laying) but you can get an exclusive player limit on craps and other games where they double to $8k/$16k on craps. If you're going to play for a paycheck, and build a large bankroll, craps is not the best avenue, even with a low house edge on the line bets.

    However with Baccarat you also have to factor in non-negotiable / dead-chip rebates as it offers another avenue for making profit even if you're just breaking even on the action. There are regular players churning action making rebates, win lose or draw. Ties are a bonus. Making 8% effective rebate on the turnover of a large bankroll even just breaking even is not a bad thing. The ratios are such that a $250k buyin nets over $20k rebate based on a 7 times turnover. You can still be down $10k on your bankroll and end up $10k after rebate. Clearly this is not low roller play but it's things like this that make a difference.

    One advantage that roulette has is multiple EC streams, so you can get more decisions per hour or reduce variance and also play differentially. Yes the zero is a pain on Roulette vs Baccarat ties that don't lose.

    Yes I agree with using primary attack and recover plays.

    For attack there are many methods, such as a small progression that wins or recovers to neutral such as a 1-2-3. This gives a decent win/draw rate (around 86%) but will fail on 3 back to back losses with 6 units lost.

    You can even do multiple levels of the attack, tiers et tout style to multiply profits on win streaks as you only have a 14% failure rate to end the progression.

    If you do sustain too many losses on bad variance then you may need to pivot into recovery betting. A labby variant or divisor approach is probably safest to grind back to neutral or loss+1 unit

    Or if you are aggressive, in craps you can lay the 4 or 10 looking to win 2 out of 3 times as a recovery bet or bet two dozens in roulette. It's more of a hail mary play but can be effective more times than not.
     
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2021
  7. David Gregory

    David Gregory Active Member

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    TwoUp, or anybody out there, do you know where I can find documentation of 1000's of Pass and Don't Pass Craps decisions? I need to prove or disprove a theory I have. It takes way too long on a Craps simulator. Thanks.
     
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2021

  8. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    You could try cloud city software wincraps pro simulator to do millions of tests quickly. Very affordable.

    There is lots of real casino data from Zumma you may be able to find. Otherwise just use real dice.
     
  9. David Gregory

    David Gregory Active Member

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    Thanks mate for the info. Do you own the Cloud City software?

    I found this and it is exactly what I was looking for. https://easy.vegas/games/craps-generator
     
  10. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    No, nothing to do with me. I did buy it because it was good value vs spending time to write my own simulation. I believe it was written by a pilot.

    You can also use random.org for random data.
     
  11. judge

    judge Active Member

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    David,
    I hope all is going well with your testing. Please keep me informed.
     
  12. RouletteGhost

    RouletteGhost Well-Known Member

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    “lost every time”

    that’s impossible.
     
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  13. Chip Magnet

    Chip Magnet Member

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    No commission necessary. The win rate for Pass and Don't Pass is 49.3%. The same win rate as Player in Baccarat.
     
  14. IDPA

    IDPA Active Member

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  15. David Gregory

    David Gregory Active Member

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    Hey there soxfan, I have been testing a new strategy for over a month and a half and it is showing some real potential. As of this posting I am 4,788 units ahead. It yields the same results with both Craps and Roulette. Just for the heck of it, I thought I should try it on Baccarat. I found a video on YouTube that is over 3 hours of live Baccarat. .
    Some guy there is demonstrating an extravagant Strategy called "Majority 6 System". Sometimes he would wait 10 or more hands before placing a single bet. In an hour and a half in, he lost 4 units and I won 146 units. So, my strategy seems to work just as well on Baccarat as anywhere else. The 'Ties' however do get in the way, still better played on craps. When I am up 100,000 units, I will post my strategy. I do not want to be premature with revealing it to soon this time. Other than the Ties, my strategy seems to hit a win quicker than on Craps and Roulette. I find this quite interesting, but I will need to test it on Baccarat a lot more to determine if that is true or not.
     
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2021
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  16. David Gregory

    David Gregory Active Member

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    Thanks for your input and giving it a try.
     
  17. David Gregory

    David Gregory Active Member

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    The win rates on Roulette, Craps and Baccarat have no significance to my approach of developing a strategy. What I have discovered for a fact is they all produce the same patterns regardless of win rates. If I was to show you this pattern: X X O O X X X X O X O X O, could you determine what game produced it? Is a pattern like that (or any other pattern) produced based on a win rate? There are only 2 patterns that are produced in any game played: Doubles and Alternating. XXOO or XOXO. The same here: XXXXOOOX. It does not matter how many of the same hits in a row, it will always be followed by two of the opposite in a row unless the pattern alternates. Now with that in mind, we need to anticipate which of the two is about to happen. If your are using a 7 step Marty, you have 7 chances to guess it right. Using the Red and Black on Roulette as an example:
    RRRRB, I would bet B. figuring it will produce a double RRRRBB. If I am wrong and it produced RRRRBR, I would bet B figuring it's going to alternate. If I am right and it Hits RRRRBRB, I would bet R figuring the pattern will continue to alternate. If wrong and it produced RRRRBRBB, I would bet R figuring that a double is coming. RRRRBRBBRR. And so on. There is more to it than that, but that is the basic principal. Give it a try and see what happens. So far with that understanding and applying my complete strategy, I have guessed it right to a win of 4,788 units.
     
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2021
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  18. David Gregory

    David Gregory Active Member

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    Haven't heard from you in a while. Did you get a chance to test your Baccarat strategy on Craps? I am very interested to see the results along with everyone else I'm sure.
     
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2021
  19. judge

    judge Active Member

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    Are you playing the whole shoe or do you use a stop win/loss.?
    I’ve enjoyed your post on craps, baccarat and roulette. Thank you.
    Could you please explain your play with the following: RRRBBB what would you do next? I’ve seen where some folks have different explanations os doubles. Some have posted a double is BB or PP. Some say a double is decision
     
  20. judge

    judge Active Member

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    BBBB or PPPP or anything with combinations of 2....PPPPPP. BBBBBBBB.
     

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