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Baccarat Cutting House Edge to -0.56%

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by fathead, Oct 16, 2020.

  1. fathead

    fathead Well-Known Member

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    It would not be that interesting. 4 will be approximately 50% of 3 and so on. Banker will lead the rest of the streaks. Longest Player streak I think was 15, longest Banker streak was 17.
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2020
  2. Sextan

    Sextan New Member

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    Hi cps10,

    Appreciate if you can locate and share the info.

    10 years ago, 2500 live shoes data is still valid as of today.

    I have the same belief as fathead (earlier in page 1 of this thread), that the virtual 1 million data is not the same as live shoes data.

    Many thanks and all the best to your betting.
     
  3. Sextan

    Sextan New Member

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    Hi fathead,

    It's not interesting for chasing the streaks. But will be interesting for me to see the whole picture of your est 2765 live shoes data.

    I read the result of a set of 2361 live shoes data (found the result on Internet) , 1s P is the most happened at 25.584% When compared to the all P events percentage of 49.972% (number of events, or streaks, not the total number of hands), single P is good... Even compared to single B or whole set of Bs.

    But the next better bet should be B. Then it's not good. Due to the 5% comms.

    The result for total 41878 bets, after the 1st P appeared, on B.

    Total win hands = 21440
    Total loss hands = 20438
    +hands = 1002, but due to 5% on all winning hands, it's - ev.


    What do you think if we go for the 2nd higher? Single B, and we start to bet on P? Without comms. And the result for the 2361 shoes can go up to +ev... Better than your -0.56%.

    The data might not be accurate. So I would like to see the full picture of your data set if it's not that difficult to pull it out.

    Many thanks for taking your time to read my post, and responding to it.

    Wish your all the best in your betting.
     
  4. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    I would rather bet for a 1 B thereby betting P at all times. The difference in percentages is not so great that you’re not losing a larger number. And you don’t pay commission. I will have to find that live data and see what my comparison is.
     
  5. fathead

    fathead Well-Known Member

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    I cannot this coming week but will take a look at what you propose in about 7 days. I should have more time then. Good luck.
     
  6. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    This is also my theory on testing data:

    1. Trying to deduce inconsistency or bias with 1 million shoes is asinine. No way you could possibly play that much to assimilate the exact statistics of that data. If you played 3 shoes a day for 50 years EVERY day, that is 55,000 shoes. This is NOWHERE near one million shoes. This amount of data (55,000 shoes) is still considered “short term” based on the percentage of 1 million.

    2. One million shoes is not even close to the possible number of shoes that could come out. Keep in mind that a shoe does not contain a finite number of hands. You could have 58 hands, 70 hands, 62 hands etc. I don’t know what the exact numbers but the permutations of all of these shoes has to be in the billions. Again, you will NEVER play that much. You are ALWAYS in short term especially if you are playing them three at a time.

    3. Virtual vs actual: saying there is a difference makes no sense to me. Each shoe however it’s generated is a possible permutation. It is one shoe in billions that COULD come up. Please don’t try and tell me that one is better than the other. The cards in any shoe can fall in the same manner as a simulated shoe. Nothing aggravates me more. Should you PLAY an RNG shoe? That’s another debate. I wouldn’t play those but that’s my personal preference.

    That being said, unless you can figure out every single possible shoe and have your computer calculate what the true statistics are, it’s all completely subjective and proves nothing. This is why the smart folks here say bet selection doesn’t matter because you can never know what’s coming out of the shoe. It’s all in money management. If you can devise a way to manage your losses and maximize your gains, then you will be in that elite group of players who are profiting over their long term but not the long term of the casino or the game. That’s all that matters.
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2020
  7. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Craps 10,



    Your last sentence says it all. That1s where I stand with that elegant game. Never mind the commission all 00 s play for the house.




    ND
     

  8. Sextan

    Sextan New Member

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    Hi All,

    As the thread's title, it's about cutting the HE, and OP done it by a bet selection, from the normal low -1.06% (only banker) to - 0.56% XX-XX-YYY bet selection. Out of fathead's total estimated 200,000 hands, he made only 90,000+ betting.

    As for the data in my posts, for the HE on 1st P bet B (base on 2361 live shoes data, selective betting of 41878 hands, out of 160, 000+ hands in total, excluding ties), will be as low as - 0.167%.

    There is a saying, whatever type of MM won't win a -ev game. Then how about selective betting base on a betting selection that could have the chance of change HE to ME?

    Base on the 2361 shoes data, for 1st B bet P, it's a +ev, no more house edge after 41925 bets. It's My Edge..


    Then again, different games give different type of streak lengths, and chops...

    For example, sicbo (3 dices BIG small, house edge is on triple House win all). Total 216 combination, and we can see more than 15 length of streak quite often.

    For example, roulette, 37 combination (single zero), house edge is 1/37, due to the extra pocket on the wheel. We heard about length of 20+, even 30+ of 1 side of the colour.

    So, I believe that look for more data, to do a simulation on the correct type of selective betting to get the lowest or no HE, then base on the results, to find a best MM, in order to overcome the house, should be the best ways for normal players like me.

    It's combining BS and MM, instead of focus on only 1 side of it.
     
  9. Sextan

    Sextan New Member

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    Hi fathead,

    Thank you and have a good week ahead. Hope to see soonest the Ps and BS of yours and cps10's live data of 2500+ shoes each. Then we can do some analysis on the data for the better of the bettors.

    It's good to have a +ev situation (1st B bet P, average bet once in 4 hands), giving us a good feeling, but the 2361 shoes I saw on net might not be accurate or BIG enough for a good reading.

    I manually run thru till 150 shoes on excel, using data of a rng 1000 shoes. The result is not very kind, -4%.

    For the casino I went to, they using EGM for live baccarat games of 8 decks of cards. All the 50 to 100 gamblers can play baccarat, sicbo and 2 tables of roulette at the same time. All the wagers can be traced as we using the EGM for betting, and there is a comp systrm of +0.003% base on my current card level (every $600 waged, doesn't matter win loss or draw, they will give 1pt = $1, and my level I will get another $0.9, total $1.90).

    So if we can get a BS of - 0.02999%, then with the comp system (which can be encashed), it's +0.0001%ev.

    For the VIP (min bet $100) and high roller (min bet $300) area, they can have comp returns of 0.5% or so, heard there are similar system with Macao casinos for those high rollers.

    Hope all will find the best way to win the battles,by means of BS, MM, comp, etc.
     
  10. Sextan

    Sextan New Member

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    Hi All,

    Tried to edit a typo error but failed.

    "Hope to see soonest the Ps and Bs of yours and cps10's live data of 2500+ shoes each."
     
  11. Joey Torres

    Joey Torres Active Member

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    Hi CPS10,

    I'm testing your MM 0 1 1 1 recently with positive results.

    As I don't want to be carried away by playing this MM blindly, based on your years playing this way, what would be the
    ideal STOP LOSS in Units before I quit the Session.

    Thanks in advance.
     
    cps10 likes this.
  12. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    Hi Joey,

    If you’re getting into a situation of larger bets and you’re down 6-10 units, I’d stop. If you still experience low bets then keep on plugging. Of course if you’re down 10 units betting 1, that’s a long road to hoe. Use your best judgment.
     
    Terry Plumb and Joey Torres like this.

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