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Forex Daily Forex analysis by Followme

Discussion in 'Forex Forum' started by straussx, Aug 14, 2019.

  1. straussx

    straussx New Member

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    #forex #forexnews #Brexit
    #GBPUSD is trading at 1.2867, having breached key support on Tuesday, courtesy of Brexit delay.
    The pound fell below the 50-hour moving average, confirming a bearish reversal on short duration charts. The key MA had consistently reversed pullbacks throughout the rally from 1.22 to 1.30 and may work as stiff resistance henceforth.
    The GBP was offered as #PrimeMinister #Johnson's #BrexitBill won parliamentary support, but the government’s timetable of just 3 days debate on the bill was rejected.
    With the parliamentary defeat, the probability of Britain leaving the European Union (#EU) before the Oct. 31 deadline has dropped sharply.
    Further, a source in Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s office said on Tuesday that a new election would be the only way to move on from Britain’s Brexit crisis if the European Union agrees to a delay until January.
    On a daily chart, the uptrend in GBP/USD appears to have stalled. Signs of indecision loom as a #Bearish Harami candlestick pattern risks paving the way for a reversal. Prices are eyeing near-term support which is a range between 1.2773 and 1.2798. A close under this barrier could open the door to testing former highs from September. Otherwise, clearing resistance at 1.3001 prolongs the uptrend.
    Expectation for GBP to “retest the 1.3010/15 level” was incorrect as GBP rose briefly to 1.3000 before plummeting to 1.2862 during NY hours. Upward pressure has dissipated and the short-term risk is for a deeper pullback. That said, any weakness is viewed as a lower trading range of 1.2810/1.2920 and a sustained decline below 1.2810 appears unlikely for now.
    Next 1-3 weeks:
    #GBP tried to break clearly above 1.3000 for the second straight day yesterday (22 Oct) but slumped after touching 1.3000. For now, there is no change to our view from Monday (21 Oct, spot at 1.2880) wherein “GBP has to ‘punch’ above 1.3000 and register a NY closing above this level in order to indicate that the current rally has enough ‘ammunitions’ to extend to 1.3050, possibly as high as 1.3150”. While there is no change to our view, severely overbought conditions suggest GBP could ill afford to dither below 1.3000 or the risk of a short-term top would increase rapidly. From here, unless GBP cracks and stays above 1.3000 within these 1 to 2 days, a break of 1.2770 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that the positive phase that started more than a week ago (see annotations in the chart below) has run its course. Looking ahead, a breach of 1.2770 would suggest that GBP is ready to ‘take a breather’ after the steep rally over the past couple of weeks.
     
  2. straussx

    straussx New Member

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    #WeekAhead #Forex #NewWeek #Followme #SocialTrading
    (GMT+8)
    Monday
    23:00 ECB's President Draghi speech
    Tuesday
    07:30 Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) (Oct)
    14:45 RBA's Governor Lowe speech
    Wednesday
    08:30 RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) (Q3)
    08:30 Consumer Price Index (QoQ) (Q3)
    19:00 Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Oct)
    20:30 US Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q3)
    22:00 CANADA Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report
    Thursday
    02:00 US Fed's Monetary Policy Statement
    03:30 FOMC Press Conference
    24h Brexit Deadline
    18:00 Europe Gross Domestic Product s.a.
    Friday
    09:45 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
    22:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
    The fate of the dollar could be decided by the upcoming #Fed policy decision. While the market is fully pricing in a third consecutive #RateCut, the odds for another cut in December have dropped to 40%. The Fed is likely to cut rates but possibly signal they will wait-and-see the impact of recent batch of cuts. #Powell has highlighted Greenspan’s mid-cycle adjustment in the 1990s and we could see that remain the game plan.
    The #TradeWar should see incremental updates, but we may not see a major move until we get to the Trump-Xi meeting at the APEC summit next month. The #USD has weakened significantly in the early part of October and we could see this recent rebound be short-lived if the deep pessimism for the global outlook eases, and the dollar to remain very vulnerable.
    #Oil prices have been rising towards the back end of the week aided by a surprise inventory drawdown on Wednesday. Oil has been gradually rising since testing its summer lows. Remains vulnerable to global growth worries and further attacks in the middle east.
    #Gold has been creeping off its lows but is still struggling to gather any upward momentum. A softer dollar has aided the resilience in the yellow metal but it continues to linger around $1,500. Gold volatility has been relatively muted but the risk environment remains fragile.
    The #UK remains in limbo as the country waits to hear whether its extension will be accepted and how long it will be. #BorisJohnson has proposed to Labour that in exchange for an election on 12 December, he will extend the timetable for the #BrexitBill until 6 November. Labour expected to respond on Monday once extension from EU becomes clear. It’s unclear when the #EU will respond as there’s apparently a dispute around whether to offer the full three months or just a couple of weeks, reportedly favoured by France. It’s extremely unlikely it will be rejected altogether but the currency remains volatile.
    Weak economic data out of #China has a serious knock-on effect for most of Asia, who rely heavily on exports to China. It’s also likely to filter down to slower global growth.
    Quarterly #CPI data on Wednesday could be a market mover, but it’s not the #RBA’s major focus at the moment. Prices have been trending lower since Q2 last year. Weak CPI data could give the RBA more wiggle space for rate cuts, which would be #AUD negative.
     
  3. straussx

    straussx New Member

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    • Violation of Rule #3: No Selling, Advertising, or Promoting
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    Last edited by a moderator: May 21, 2020

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