Forex Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: February 27, 2017


The Australian currency declined following the announcement made by the RBA Governor, Philip Lowe confirming that the Central Bank will not approve for an interest rate hike in the near future. Regardless of the positive trend in general, bulls were unable to climb higher.


Having posted its recent highs within the 0.7739 region, the price weakened and turned back towards 0.7700 where sustained a consolidated position throughout the night trades.

The increasing demand for the US dollar caused the Aussie to break under 0.7700 driving the AUD to 0.7650.


The 50-EMA was being tested by the price as indicated in the 4-hour chart. The 50, 100 and 200 moving averages moved upwards. Resistance is shown at 0.7700, support is found at 0.7650. MACD decreased indicating a sell signal. The RSI appeared to be neutral.


The AUDUSD pair is required to beef up and take a grasp into the 0.7700 level as a means of strength recovery. The recent weakness is regarded as corrective. There is a chance to buy the dips.


A break under 0.7650 will ease the movement of the upward pressure. A move on the underside of 0.7550 will neutralize the buying pressure and open possibility for further weakening.

 

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 28, 2017


The market saw a very dismal durable goods data reading while Trump continues to further delay his long-awaited tax cut policies, thereby contributing to the further dwindling of the value of the US dollar. As a reaction to this particular phenomenon, the EUR/USD pair was able to reach 1.0630 points in a matter of a few hours and seems poised to move further.


However, the US dollar suddenly reverted its losses for no apparent reason at all and this caused the EUR/USD to drop further to 1.0600 before settling at just over 1.0580 points. Some market analysts are crediting this sudden surge in the dollar’s value to Trump’s previous statements regarding the infrastructure increases, a favorite campaign topic of Trump during his candidacy. Previously, there have been rumors swirling around that this infrastructure policies would not come into effect until 2018, but since Trump has already re-discussed this particular proposal, the market has since then been speculating that the increase might be implemented within the year which could help in keeping the buoyancy of the market. The USD has been able to revert its losses as a result but the real determinant here would be the rate statement next month as well as the FOMC rates.


Now that the market is slowly shifting its focus from Trump’s policies towards the move of the Federal Reserve, it is highly likely that the market’s movements will be relying on the Fed’s decision on when they will be implementing the next rate hike.


There are no major releases coming from the eurozone today but the US will be releasing its consumer spending data as well as its Preliminary GDP data today which could bring in added volatility to the USD and affect the EUR/USD pair. The currency pair is expected to continue consolidating with bullish undertones for today.

 

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: February 28, 2017


The USD/CAD had a strong bullish trade during the previous session after the bulls were able to regain its dominance over this particular currency pair. The bulls had previously attempted last week to gain control over the pair after the release of a dismal retail sales data from the Canadian economy but was eventually unable to do so after the release of a very strong CPI data. The bulls had also attempted to break through yesterday but has failed from last week’s range highs.


The currency pair’s strong resistance and support barriers of 1.3060 and 1.3000 respectively has led the market to believe that the USD/CAD pair is in for some major uptrend and is evident of the importance of the support barrier with regards to the struggle between the pair’s bulls and bears. Since the bears have constantly failed to break through this pair, the pair’s bears are currently in full dominance of the USD/CAD. The USD/CAD was previously consolidating within the 1.3100 barrier but a surge in the value of the USD helped in boosting the currency pair following’s Trump’s statement that he will be adding up the country’s infrastructure spending. The pair eventually increased in value after oil prices somewhat dropped in value.


This drop in oil prices could cause trouble for the USD/CAD pair in the short and medium term since Canada is very reliant on oil prices. The pair’s bears could become seriously affected once the dollar strength and weak oil prices come together since this could trigger the pair to move significantly upwards.


There are no major news coming from the Canadian economy today but the pair could get some volatility from the US consumer confidence data and Preliminary GDP which will be released today. The USD/CAD could possibly consolidate within 1.3100-1.3200 points with a bullish undertone.

 

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 28, 2017


The GBP/USD took a heavy hitting during the previous session as the pair’s bulls were unable to create a continuously good run for the pair since every time a bounce in the pair manifests, the pair immediately drops as it is met with major selloffs. There are still overshadowing concerns with the currency pair since the Brexit process is still ongoing, and this ensures that the GBP/USD pair will be unable to go higher for quite some time.


The GBP/USD pair was hit even more harder yesterday after rumors that Scotland is currently planning to implement another referendum in their favor in order to discern whether it would still be beneficial for them to continue becoming part of the UK. If this happens, then this would be disastrous for the UK economy since other parts of the UK might also be encouraged to do the same. This is probably the worst that could happen to the UK, especially since Scotland had initially voted to remain part of the European Union but was outvoted by the majority of UK members. But then further confirmation of this particular rumor never happened, and this caused the GBP/USD pair to bounce back from 1.2400 and is currently trading at just under 1.2450 points.


There are no major news releases expected from the UK today but the US will be releasing its Preliminary GDP data and consumer confidence data. The currency pair would most likely remain under pressure for today, with the 1.2500 barrier presenting a possibly limit to any kind of uptrend in the pair.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: March 1, 2017


The consumer price index of France inched up, however, it was unable to meet the projected level. While Italy’s rate of inflation remained consistent despite the forecasts about its potential decline. Moreover, the jobless rate in Germany is expected to decrease as mentioned by analysts and the German’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index is assumed to remain steady.


The single currency was not able to make some reversal on Monday. Buyers touched the 1.0631 region by which the spot eyed some renewed offers. The price turned back under the 1.0600 level and posted its session lows near 1.0567 area amid Asian session.


The EURUSD attempted to break the barrier in the European hours. The EUR made a slight recovery few of its losses during the night upon approaching 1.0600 in the mid-EU trades.

The price is close to the 50-EMA as it positioned in the neutral zone during the earlier trading while the 100-EMA preserved a bearish pattern and the 200-EMA drove downwards.

Resistance settled at 1.0600, support plunge towards 1.0550.


The MACD is situated at the centerline. When the indicator pierced the positive region, the strength of the buyers will grow while an entry in the negative territory will signal sellers to dominate the market. The RSI appeared to be neutral.


Furthermore, bullish momentum is possible to reclaim. The next target of the pair is 1.0630. The EUR/USD may resume its ascending movement to 1.0650.

 

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 3, 2017


The GBP/USD pair has been nursing its wounds during the past trading session as the currency pair is still at a loss on what it needs to do in order to propel its value higher up the chart. The sterling pound has been experience a lot of pressure this week, with the shadows of the ongoing Brexit process hanging over the currency, especially since it is still uncertain whether the impending talks between EU and UK leaders would go smoothly or otherwise. The invocation of Article 50 is drawing nearer and once the line is drawn, there will be no returning for both the European Union and the UK.


In addition to the pressure brought about by the Brexit, there have been also additional concerns that Scotland is planning to relieve itself from the UK, and though this has been nothing more than a rumor, it does not look like it’s going to die down any soon, and the USD is also undergoing a consistent rallying streak, another cause of trouble for the GBP/USD pair. The main reason behind the dollar strength is that the market is slowly getting used to Trump’s various eccentricities, and the Federal Reserve has also become increasingly hawkish, thereby cementing speculations that an interest rate hike is in the works.


The GBP/USD pair is expected to remain under pressure during today’s session. The UK is scheduled to release its services PMI data today but the market’s main focus would be Yellen’s speech at the New York session. The market will be monitoring whether Yellen will be giving out indications of a March rate hike, and if this is the case, then the dollar would possibly continue rallying and send the GBP/USD pair towards 1.2200 points.

 

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: March 6, 2017


The US dollar made some minor adjustments on Fridays as it moves close to its seven-week high versus other majors. The growing expectations of US rate increase within this month provided support for the greenbacks. The focus was turned to the testimony of Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Moreover, the greens were able to maintain its winning position on Friday.

The major came in green posting renewed highs during the onset of EU session.


Buyers demonstrated an active movement this morning subsequent to the flat Asian trading as they drove the price upwards and gapped the level 1.3400. The USDCAD preserved a bid tone, touching its renewed highs eventually.


The 4-hour chart presented the price extend its development on top of the moving averages while the MAs sustained a bullish pattern. The 100 and 50-EMA executed an upward crossover towards the 200-EMA. Resistance is at 1.3470, support entered 1.3400.


The MACD increased which confirmed a buy signal. RSI have seen consolidated around the positive readings.


In case that buyers dominate the market, the next target is 1.3470. In turn, the USD would likely pull back near 1.3330 mark.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: March 6, 2017


The downbeat data of UK non-manufacturing PMI coupled with the growing expectation for the rate increase in US occurred on the back of British currency’s 6-week low recovery versus the greenbacks. Moreover, the sterling resumed its period of consolidation during the Asian trades took place on Friday. The price traded range-bound lower in a tight range of 50 pips. The sellers were able to push the GBP towards 1.2200 as it became active throughout the morning EU trades.


The 4-hour chart continued its development under the moving averages while the 50, 100 and 200-EMAs drove lower. Meanwhile, the 100 and 50-EMA made a downward crossover to the 200-EMA. Resistance is seen at 1.2300, support highlighted 1.2200.


The MACD histogram weakened which indicates seller’s strength. RSI came in the oversold territory, en route south.


Technicals are expected to support a downward extension to 1.2200 level. The final break would suggest further weakness at 1.2150 region. The possible minor correction still predicted to happen if the spot appeared to be oversold. In order to ease the downward pressure, buyers may push the price through the mark 1.2300.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: March 7, 2017


The common European currency strengthened on the back of the dollar retracement since investors did some profit-taking subsequent to the rally that occurred last week. The greenbacks continued to gain strength amid growing expectations about rate hike in line with the Fed meeting scheduled on March 14-15. All eyes are now turned to French presidential elections.


The EURUSD stayed in a downward channel yesterday. Failure to break beyond the level 1.0550 would pull back some buying interest which could lead the spot upwards. Meanwhile, a soft tone near the USD provided an opportunity for Euro’s recovery.


The EUR have rallied into certain regions till it touched the upper limit of 1.0650 range. The barrier stalled bull’s activity as they initiated period of consolidation. The renewed selling pressure crop up during the late of Europe and push the major below the marks 1.0600 to 1.0580.

As outlined in the 4-hour chart, the 100-EMA were being tested by euro in the morning.

Moreover, the 100-EMA moved lower while the 50-EMA headed upwards and the 200-EMA maintained a mild bearish tone. Resistance lies at 1.0600, support entered 1.0550.


The MACD decreased confirming a sell signal. RSI oscillator is confined in the oversold readings and favoring a downtrend.


Maintaining a level under 1.0600 may regain the 1.0550 support level.

 

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 8, 2017


The EUR/USD pair continued with its ranging and consolidation movement for the second consecutive day, with this current trend expected to continue for the subsequent trading session as well. There are no major economic news releases happening within the international market which might influence the movement of the EUR/USD pair, and this is why the market has been incessantly seeing this ranging and consolidation.


However, this particular movement coming from the currency pair is also part of the pair’s preparation for the onslaught of important economic data which are expected to be released in the middle of this week, especially since these economic data would most likely induce a lot of unprecedented volatility in the EUR/USD pair. So until these data gets released in the market, it is highly likely that the currency pair would continue consolidating. The USD experienced some minor corrections throughout the course of yesterday’s trading session, and this has become evident in the state of the EUR/USD pair after the currency pair dropped slightly in value and is now trading at just over 1.0550 points. The pair is expected to maintain its hold on this particular barrier as more buys are expected to come in at this region. This could also cause the currency pair to move towards 1.0600 points and will continue consolidating for the rest of the trading session.


There are no major news releases expected from the European Union for today but the US will be releasing its ADP employment data later today. This employment data is usually touted as a precursor to the NFP report and although its importance is now being overlooked, it still serves as a necessary gauge on how the the NFP report would eventually pan out. Any fluctuations in this particular data are most likely to show in the NFP report as well.

 

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 8, 2017


The GBP/USD pair continues to trade very weakly during the previous trading session. This could be initially attributed to the strengthening of the USD which was reflected across the board, but what has really affected the pound here is the fundamentals underlying the UK economy, as well as various uncertainties which is constantly putting pressure on the value of the GBP/USD pair.


Once the Article 50 gets invoked, the Brexit process is pretty much locked in, and this means that there would be several negotiations between EU and UK leaders immediately after the invocation. UK leaders are expected to be stricter with regards to EU trade access since the majority of them would like the UK to realize the several benefits that it would lose once the country finally becomes a separate nation from the European Union. This uncertainty as well as the tediousness of the Brexit process is likely to take its toll on the GBP/USD pair and this is starting to become more evident as the currency pair continues its weak trading stance, with the currency pair just hovering over 1.2200 points.


The UK will be releasing its yearly budget release today, and the country is expected to paint a pretty picture of their economy in order to boost public sentiment. This might give temporary resolve for the sterling pound but would eventually fizzle out as the fundamentals continue to put downward pressure on the state of the GBP/USD pair.

 

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: March 8, 2017


The USD/CAD pair continues trading within a limited trading range near its range highs, which is the pair’s current trend ever since the start of the week. The stability of oil prices has helped the Canadian dollar maintain its current stance, but since the USD has been consistently regaining its strength, the bears are having difficulty in exceeding the bulls’ progress and this is why the currency pair is firmly in control, with the bulls dominating the USD/CAD pair.


The Canadian trade balance data was released yesterday which came in at a value of 0.8 billion CAD which is very good news for the economy. The trade balance data from the US was als released yesterday and this reading somewhat fell short of initial market expectations/ However, neither of these data had a significant impact on the value of the USD/CAD even though the US dollar is now bracing itself for the onslaught of economic data releases later this week. Both the US and Canada will be releasing its employment data this coming Friday and market players are now preparing for the expected increase in volatility once the data gets released into the market.


For today’s trading session, there no major news releases from the Canadian economy although the US will be releasing its ADP employment data and unless this shows a drastic shift in its economic readings, the USD/CAD pair would most likely continue its ranging and consolidation.

 

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: March 9, 2017


The Canadian dollar was able to preserve its stance compared with the US dollar yesterday. The loonie received some support from the positive figures of Trade Balance a few days ago. Investors wait with expectation for the statistics of US labor market which could establish a route for the USD/CAD.


The pair was trading flat and toggled in the middle of the Wednesday night session. The price is positioned in tight channels of 1.3400 - 1.3430 all throughout the night.

Moreover, the USD resumed its short-term bullish trajectory during the earlier trades. The major further pulled out from the 1.3400 region and rallied higher heading to 1.3470.


As rolled out from the 4-hour chart, the price was developing beyond the moving averages. It further mentioned the 100 and 50-EMAs preserved its bullish pattern while 200-EMA move over the neutral grounds. Resistance touched 1.3470 mark, support hit 1.3400.


The MACD histogram is positioned within the same level confirming buyer’s strength. RSI oscillator hovered near the overbought readings and expected to support a fresh upward movement


The bullish market structure is expected to remain in its place in the short-term. Bulls’ next target is at 1.3470.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: March 9, 2017


The House of Lords decided to allow the Parliament to exercise a veto with regards to the management of the Prime Minister towards the European Union. This resolution made some impact to the British currency. Moreover, Theresa May has to face another difficulty with the Brexit negations.


The sterling remained flat during the Asian hours. The sellers spend the whole night accumulating strength for another support and pushed the price lower in the morning.


The spot was removed from the region 1.2200 and progress lower prior to the opening of London session. The Cable was able to hold 1.2150 amid noon trades. As mentioned in 4-hour chart, the price resumed its development under the moving averages. The 50, 100 and 200-EMAs headed downwards. Resistance is seen at 1.220, support highlighted 1.2100.


The MACD indicator decline as the sellers gained strength. RSI belong in the undervalued zone and expected to favor for a new lower trend.


Based on the current flow, a scenario where a downward movement at 1.2100 is considered.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: March 9, 2017


The trend of EURUSD made little changes prior to the onset of ECB monetary policy meeting. The German Industrial Production came in green which provided minor support for the European currency.


The bears continued to dominate the market on Wednesday. During the whole night of trading, the sellers persist in pushing the major lower and touching 1.0550 level in the earlier trades. While European traders struggled to break the mentioned handle.


The 4-hour chart showed the pair cut through the 50-EMA towards a lower point. The timeframe also outlined the price was situated under the moving averages and directed downwards.


Resistances landed at 1.0600, support is at 1.0500.


The MACD histogram has its seat in the centerline. An entry towards the negative zone will signal increasing strength for the sellers. The positive territory, on the other side, will indicate buyer’s control within the market. RSI hovered around the neutral territory.

Any action under the 1.0550 region would trigger bearishness to 1.0500 mark.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: March 13, 2017


The single European currency was able to remain in the driver’s seat following the hawkish remarks from ECB President, Mario Draghi. Moreover, the broad-based retracement of the greens open doors for the euro to recover few of its losses.


The current rebound from region 1.0525 that pulled away the euro from the red. The EUR have sustained its winning position on Friday. The buyers were able to push 1.0600 during EU opening and advanced towards 1.0615 during the latter part of the day.


The 4-hour chart presented the 100 and 50-EMA to ascend and come nearer to the 200-EMA. Moreover, the 50-EMA shifted towards the upper level, 100-EMA appeared neutral and the 200-EMA preserved a bearish trend. Resistance touched 1.0650, support is at 1.0600.


The MACD histogram came in the positive territory. Upon maintaining this grounds, buyers will gain more strength. RSI headed north indicating an upward impetus.


The euro indicated an overbought condition. Forecasts say that pullback is expected within the market in the near-term. The next focus is at 1.0550 mark.

 

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: March 14, 2017


The USD/CAD pair spent most of yesterday’s trading session on a mostly ranging and consolidating manner, with the currency pair consolidating within the 1.3400-1.3500 region due to the lack of significant economic events from both the US and the Canadian economy. The market is now on a monitoring stance particularly on the USD and this has been reflected in the lack of any kind of activity in the USD/CAD pair.


The market is currently waiting for the onslaught of the release of several economic data from the US tomorrow, with the most important release being the FOMC announcement where the central bank is expected to implement its first interest rate hike for the year. Aside from the FOMC announcement, the CPI data as well as the retail sales data will also be released tomorrow. The high expectations for an interest rate hike tomorrow has helped keep the USD/CAD pair to remain within its range highs. However, the market is not yet sure as to how much hawkishness will be needed for the USD bulls, and this has become somewhat problematic for the USD/CAD pair as the pair has difficulty calculating its move immediately after the FOMC data release.


If the statement from the central bank comes out as satisfyingly hawkish, then the USD could boost its strength and could help the USD/CAD bulls to challenge the sells located at the pair’s 1.3500 barrier. If the data comes out otherwise, then the USD/CAD pair could possibly retreat to its previous trading range. For today’s session, the US economy is expected to release its PPI data which is not expected to induce added volatility into the pair.

 

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 14, 2017


Although the UK economy saw a lot of events and developments during yesterday’s trading session, this has done practically nothing to induce added activity into the GBP/USD pair. A slight bounce occurred in the pair during the previous session but this was automatically met with a selloff, especially since the bounce was somewhat thin and was unable to hold on and prevent the said selloff from occurring. The GBP/USD pair has however managed to surpass 1.2200 points and even managed to reach 1.2250 following market rumors that Theresa May might not be invoking Article 50 within the week. However, since there was no actual confirmation that the invocation would indeed be happening this week, the market became initially confused on the British pound’s rally and the lack of basis to this particular assumption has caused this bounce to eventually die out.


In addition, there have been rumors swirling around that the British government might not accept Scotland’s request to hold an independence referendum, especially since the UK is already neck-deep in uncertainties and another referendum would only cause more disaster for the country’s economy. These series of events has caused the GBP/USD pair to retreat towards 1.2200, where it is currently trading.


For today’s trading session, there are no expected data releases from the UK economy, while the US economy will be releasing its PPI data. However, all eyes will be on the FOMC rate announcement which is set to be released tomorrow. This, in addition to the impending invocation of Article 50, are both expected to keep the GBP/USD pair under pressure in the short term.

 

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 15, 2017


The USD increased in value as the market anticipates the release of the FOMC rate announcement later today. As a result, the EUR/USD consistently weakened yesterday and has managed to break through 1.0650 points and is currently situated at just above 1.0600 points. A lot of analysts have been saying that the currency pair could possibly consolidate within the 1.0600-1.0700 barrier during the week of the FOMC statement and could possibly maintain its place within the region up until the end of this week.


The expected rate hike this coming March is pretty much secured and what the market will be focusing now is the amount of hawkishness of this particular announcement, and this is where the uncertainty lies. The majority of market players have no idea on just how hawkish the statement should be in order to push the value of the dollar further. Nonetheless, the market expects that there would be some sort of clue on the Federal Reserve’s next move and if possible, hints on the next scheduled interest rate hike from the central bank. Of course, it would definitely be good news for the market if the statement outwardly gives out clues of the next rate hike, but then again the central bank is not known for such moves and could possibly state that the schedule of the subsequent rate hikes would depend on the status of various economic data in the future.


The volatility of the EUR/USD pair could possibly be increased by the release of the CPI index data and the retail sales data. The currency pair could possibly drop to 1.0600 points and could even reach 1.0580 for a short period if the data comes out as positive.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: March 17, 2017


The market mainly focused on the meeting of the Bank of England about its monetary policy decision. Investors anticipate that regulator will keep an unchanged rate and does not assume any other surprising events.


The market became bearish yesterday. Investors believe that the sterling should be lifted on top of 1.2300. The major stayed near the barrier and moved downwards during the first part of the day. The Cable preserved an ask tone throughout the day.


According to the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD broke the 50-EMA and tested 100-EMA afterwards. At the same, the 100 and 200-EMAs drove lower while the 50-EMA came in neutral.

Resistance is found at 1.2300 level, support is at 1.2200.


The histogram made its entry to the positive territory. Upon maintaining this position the buyer’s strength will increase. The RSI consolidated alongside the overbought readings.

Moving downwards near the 1.2200 level would the be the next possible scenario.