Forex Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: March 20, 2017


There is no expected economic release scheduled from the Australian dollar on Friday. Investors were in a wait-and-see mode for the RBA Meeting minutes scheduled on Tuesday. Moreover, the offered tone near the greenbacks provided strength for the Aussie.


Buyers found a hurdle around 0.7700 but needed to leave off their gains.The major rebounded and stalled on top of 0.7660.


A bout of renewed buying pressure came up during Friday’s Asian session. The AUD/USD were pulled back by the buyers towards 0.7700 removing its current losses.


The 4-hour chart determines the price continuously develop above the moving averages as the 200 and 50-EMA directed higher while 100-EMA seems neutral. Resistance entered 0.7700 level, support holds 0.7650 mark.


The histogram preserved in the same region favoring buyer’s strength. RSI indicator is situated close to the overvalued area which confirms another move lower.


After making a gap on top of 0.7700, the next will be 0.7750. Failure to post its fresh gains could possibly occur some profit taking. The AUD would likely weaken reaching 0.7600-0.7620.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: March 20, 2017


The upside bias continued to exist until Friday. Buyers stalled its activity during the night. Moreover, the night correction was considered as a profit-taking action of buyers who failure to hold its place.


Bulls became active in the morning trades pushing the major near 1.2400 region and slowed down further. In line with the presentation of the 4-hour chart, the price cross above the 100-EMA and confined under the 200-EMA. Meanwhile, the 200 and 100-EMAs remained to be in a bearish pattern, 50-EMA directed up as mentioned in the chart. Resistance highlighted 1.2400, support entered 1.2300.


MACD indicator strengthened confirming for a buy signal. The RSI consolidated around the positive area.


Should the GBP/USD pair accomplish to breakout from the 1.2400 mark, the next focus is 1.2500 resistance region. However, there is an outside chance for a move on top of 1.2400 due to an overbought condition. Due to this probable scenario, the Cable is expected to reverse at 1.2300.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: March 20, 2017


The Eurozone Trade Balance, particularly in Italy, presented negative results. While the greenbacks sentiment remained to be a major driver of the markets. The US dollar kept its stance near its lows on the back of slightly hawkish remarks of J. Yellen.


The common European currency spiked amid the post session of New York last Thursday. The buyers lead the price higher and broke the level 1.0750. On one side, bulls successfully edged higher towards 1.0770 in the latter part of the day and decided to stop.


The spot kept intact in a narrow range over the 1.0750 region. The neutral position was preserved amid morning session.


The 4-hour chart presented the price to develop beyond the moving averages, as the 50-EMA showed an upward crossover to the 200-EMA. The 50 and 100-EMAs advanced upwards while 200-EMA is found neutral. Resistance is at 1.0800, support lies at 1.0750.


The MACD histogram increased which suggested a buy signal. RSI have seen consolidated within the positive zone.


It is expected that the outlook, in general, will remain to be bullish due to ascending trend en route 1.0800. Nevertheless, there still a possibility of reversal towards 1.0720-1.0700.

 

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 22, 2017


The EUR/USD pair was able to move towards 1.0800 points, with the currency pair managing to stay at over 1.0800 for a brief period. However, since the pair has not yet managed to make a clean breakthrough at this very tough barrier since it only momentarily peeked over this level, the pair’s surge was eventually met with large selling and had no choice but to retreat at just under 1.0800 points.


However, in spite of this particular occurrence, the EUR/USD pair is still trading on a somewhat stronger note, thanks to the pair’s bulls who continue to trade on a strong streak. The EUR/USD pair’s move at under 1.0800 now seems as just more of a correction as the pair’s price are still well-maintained within its range highs. This is why the currency pair might give another shot at surpassing the 1.0800 barrier for today, especially since the forthcoming French polls might have Macron as its next President after all. This is a sigh of relief especially for the EUR currency, since Le Pen, Macron’s opponent, is a widely-known critic of the euro currency. In addition, the pairs bulls are getting a lot of encouragement from the very bullish stance of the ECB, who recently stated that the strength of the euro can be mostly attributed to an improvement in the EU economy. The USD has also been struggling to make significant gains in spite of the recent rate hike and there is a very definite possibility that the pair could possibly move towards 1.1000 points once makes a clean break through 1.0850 points.


There are no major news from both the EU and the US economy for today, and this is why the EUR/USD pair might again attempt to break through its barrier. Traders could opt to wait whether the currency pair is able to surpass 1.0850 during the course of the day.

 

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 22, 2017


The GBP/USD pair has been consistently making its way towards 1.2500 points and it looks like the pair’s bulls are more determined than ever to break through this particular range. As of the moment, the GBP/USD pair is now trading at just beneath 1.2500 points and is bracing itself once the currency pair pushes past 1.2500 points, where it is expected to be met with a lot of sells. The bulls must be able to weather these large-scale selloffs in order for the currency pair to go past this particular barrier.


The UK economy released its inflation data yesterday with a reading of 2.3% going well beyond the initial market expectations. This, along with one of the BoE officials voting for a rate hike just goes to show that the Bank of England’s data and policy seem to be in sync, thereby causing the sterling pound to increase in value. However, now that the GBP/USD pair as well as the euro are both in a very critical situation, the market is waiting whether the currency bulls would be able to break through these respective regions.


However, the positive bearing of the sterling pound does not mean that the currency does not run any risks. We still have the nearing invocation of Article 50 as well as Scotland’s recent demand for an independence referendum, although the market has chosen not to focus on these and instead focus on the weakness of the USD. There are no major news releases coming from both the US and UK economy for today and so the market will be focusing instead on the battle at the 1.2500 barrier, with the market focusing on whether the currency pair will be finally making it through this section or weaken eventually and resort to some more consolidation for the rest of the trading day.

 

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: March 22, 2017


The price action of the USD/CAD pair during the previous session was mostly dictated by the Canadian retail sales data, which came out better than expected. However, one downside to this is that the positivity of the data was somewhat offset by the data last month, which was revised on a much lower level. This correction has then helped remove some of the pressure off of the currency pair and enabled it to move towards 1.3350 before finally settling at just under this particular range. The pair eventually dropped towards 1.3260 where it is currently situated.


The pair was met with a lot of buying and this has helped the pair to slowly recover towards 1.3300 points, and the correction in the country’s retail sales data enabled the pair to go even higher. The Canadian dollar has also weakened as a reaction to the repeated failed attempts of oil prices to recover from its recent slump, causing the USD/CAD pair to recover towards 1.3350 points and even surpassed this particular barrier.


For today’s session, there are no major news releases from the US economy aside from the oil inventory data, which is expected to affect the status of the CAD based on the currency’s previous price action. Expect the Canadian dollar to drop in value as a reaction to this particular data and consolidate within 1.3300-1.3400 points for the duration of today’s trading session.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: March 23, 2017


The risk-off market sentiment alongside the softening of copper and other commodities affected the Australian dollar on Wednesday.


On Wednesday, the AUDUSD was neutral following the sell-off occurred on Tuesday. The sellers found a hurdle around 0.7650 mark. The handle slowed down the seller’s movement and the price was rejected. The spot was confined near the region as its progresses in an aimless manner.


The commodity-linked pair tested the 50 and 200-EMA while the 50-EMA crossed on top of the 100-EMA touching the 200-EMA as shown in the 4-hour chart. Also, the 50-EMA preserved a bullish pattern while the 100-EMA shifted downwards while the 200-EMA showed signs of being neutral.


Resistance entered 0.7700, support is at 0.7650.


The MACD declined which confirmed the weak position of the buyers. RSI oscillator en route downwards.


A break to 0.7600 region will pass the attention to the level 0.7550.

 

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: March 27, 2017


The Canadian currency was unable to sustain its upside momentum as it currently endures the continuous weakening following the weak prices of crude oil.

The greenbacks rebounded 1.3330 and reversed towards 1.3375 in which the buying impetus seems short-lived. The price headed back in the mid-session of Asia and begin to retreat afterward.


The pair continued to decline amid early European trades and attempted to cut through the 50-EMA, nevertheless, failed to do so which caused it to reenter under the moving averages. Furthermore, the 50-EMA remain to move lower, 100-EMA appeared neutral and the 200-EMA headed upwards.


Resistance covered 1.3400, support is at 1.3330.


The MACD histogram was spotted at the centerline. On one side, an entry in the positive territory will favor buyers’ strength and on the negative grounds will allow sellers seize the control within the market. RSI was confined in the neutral area.


A break under 1.3330 mark would indicate further weakening towards support level 1.3260.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: March 27, 2017


The recovery of the greenbacks coupled with the BBA Mortgage Approvals of UK place pressure towards the British currency on Friday.


The Cable secured its bullish market position on Friday. The spot leaves the upper limit of the channel in the night and slowed down near its lower limit during the morning session of Europe. The GBPUSD kept steady amid the day maintaining its seat close to the 1.2500 region.


The 4-hour timeframe illustrated the major stayed aloft moving averages, seeing the 100 and 50-EMAs to drive higher while 200-EMA turned neutral.


Resistance touched 1.2500, support hit 1.2400.


The MACD indicator grew less presenting weak position of the buyers. RSI oscillator sits next to the overbought grounds, confirming for a higher move.


A move over the 1.2500 level would likely take an advance move towards 1.2600 mark.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: March 27, 2017


The positive figures of Manufacturing and Composite PMI from the countries, France, Europe and Germany offered some strength to the single European currency. Particularly, German index which attained the strongest level for almost six years. Meanwhile, the greenbacks obtained a weaker position after the treasury yields inch lower in which provided further support for euro.


The EURUSD continued to stay in the hands of the bulls on Friday. The EUR reached its lower limit in the ascending channel over the night and jumped higher. The price also spiked from the mark 1.0760 towards 1.0800 amid EU morning sessions and sit still in the New York trades.


The 4-hour chart determined that the pair resumed its development on top of the moving averages as the 100 and 50-EMA preserved a bullish pattern while 200-EMA came in neutral.


Resistance entered 1.0800, support touched 1.0750 region.


MACD indicator strengthened which showed a buy signal. RSI oscillator edged upwards.


In case the level 1.0800 broke, the next level would possibly be at 1.0850.

 

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 28, 2017


The EUR/USD pair crashed during the previous session as the pair corrected its current upmove which has been the pair’s trend for the past few weeks. The USD finally recovered across the board, resulting to sellers taking advantage of this occurrence and selling the EUR. The dollar strength has helped to propel the pair’s value towards 1.0800 points, therefore eradicating the pair’s previous gains which was made last Monday.


Because of this, traders are now mulling over the fact that the EUR/USD pair could be in for more corrections as the sessions progresses. However, the market has no choice but to wait and see how the pair’s price action turns out in the next few days, particularly if whether the pair would continue its current trend of correction or if the pair backs down as it approaches its support barrier at 1.0800, where the currency pair is situated as of the moment. The USD remained weak last Friday up until Monday due to the repeated failed attempts of the Trump administration to pass the healthcare bill. However, the White House is now trying to make another attempt at passing the said bill after Republicans reached out to like-minded Democrats. In addition, the US economy continues to release a slew of strong economic data and this has caused the EUR/USD pair to fall further during the US trading session.


For today’s session, there are no expected releases coming from both the EU and the US economy. However, the month-end flows are expected to come anytime soon as March comes to a close, and since the USD’s strength is expected to persist today, the EUR/USD pair would continue to remain under pressure with the 1.0800 range remaining the essential barrier for the currency pair.

 

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 29, 2017


The GBP/USD had a very disastrous trading day yesterday as the currency pair crashed by over 200 pips following the USD’s recovery, as well as the nearing invocation of Article 50. A lot of market players have been saying that today will be a very interesting day for the GBP/USD pair as the Article 50 will be invoked later today, which will mark the start of the Brexit process and basically a point of no return for the British economy.


The GBP/USD pair has seen a consistent buildup of shorts during the past week as the market awaits a very large drop today. However, the value of the GBP/USD pair is also consistently moving higher and increasing towards 1.2600 points. This is a potentially very risky combination and the effect of this combo manifested yesterday, wherein both the USD’s strength and Brexit-related concerns caused the currency pair to drop from its range highs of 1.2600 towards 1.2400 points, where the pair is currently trading. The USD recovered amid possibilities that the Trump admin might again try to pass the healthcare bill by seeking help from like-minded Democrats. Theresa May will also be signing the order for Article 50, and it will be interesting to see how the sterling pound will react to this most recent development in the UK economy.


For today’s session, there are no major releases from both the US and the UK economy and this is why the market will be mostly focusing on the invocation of Article 50 and the subsequent reaction of the GBP/USD pair following the said invocation.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: March 29, 2017


The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar declined in the beginning of Tuesday trading but turned around and found significant support level at 0.7587 with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. A bullish candle was seen and the market tries to move to higher towards the .7750 level and above.


Later on, the market was able to break higher than the 0.7648 resistance level completing the downtrend from 0.7749 to 0.7587 level. It is more favorable to buy this pair with chances for a breakout in the gold market which traders are trying to attain and if they are successful in doing so higher than $1262 level, this would give higher returns to the traders.


The current price could further go up towards the next target at 0.7700 zone while a break lower than the support level at 0.7587 could follow downtrend towards 0.7500 mark.

 

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: March 30, 2017


The USD/JPY pair dropped in value during the previous session in spite of the US dollar’s strong outlook against other major currencies. The ambiguity in the US equity markets, as well as weak Treasury yields might have contributed to the weakness in the currency pair. A lot of investors are now going back to the safety of the Japanese yen, mostly because of the alarming concerns with regards to the French elections, Brexit negotiations, and Trump’s frustrated attempts to fulfill his campaign promises. The USD/JPY closed down the previous session at 111.042 points after decreasing by 0.083 points or-0.07%.


For Thursday’s session, investors will be waiting for the release of the US GDP data as well as jobless claims data, in addition to comments from Fed officials including Kaplan, Dudley, Williams, and Mester. But of these four officials, the statement coming from Dudley is touted as the most interesting due to his position in the FOMC as a permanent voter. Dudley is expected to discuss topics such as the Fed’s monetary policy and the present financial climate of the US economy.


For the meantime, it seems as if the Fed and bond investors have contrasting views with regards to the path of US interest rates. This could be partly attributed to bond investors overvaluing the Trump administration’s ability to help prop up the economy by way of highly-aggressive economic policies. The USD/JPY pair could receive additional support if the Republicans would manage to convince investors that they can actually turn Trump’s proposals into actual laws. However, any additional doubts with regards to Trump’s ability to fulfill his role as President could induce additional selling pressure.

 

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: March 30, 2017


The commodity-linked pair is confined to a familiar range yesterday. The price was positioned in the middle points of 1.3400 and 1.3350 within the day.

The overnight recovery slowed down in the earlier trades as the spot attained the channel’s upper limit.


The morning session triggered renewed bearish tone. The greenbacks dropped sharply near the lower limit eliminating its gains throughout the night. Sellers unsuccessfully move downwards and hovered in the range.


In the 4-hour chart, the spot was sandwiched in the 100 and 50-EMA during the first part of the day. Meanwhile, the 50-EMA drove higher, 100-EMA shifted down and the 200-EMA preserved a bullish pattern.


Resistance is at 1.3400, support holds 1.3330 mark.


The MAcd indicator stayed on its previous level, favoring strength for the buyers. The RSI oscillator descended.


As mentioned in the same timeframe, technicals confirm a downwards continuation to 1.3330.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: April 3, 2017


The US dollar is positioned near its weekly highs on Tuesday but the bullish tone of German jobless rate stalled its advancement which offered another leg to the common European currency.


Furthermore, the price maintained a bearish sentiment last Friday, however, the bears did not hold its stance longer favoring the bull to reversed few of its ground.


The price bounced towards the area of 1.0675 amid Asian session on Friday. The EURUSD made a reversal to the mark 1.0700 throughout the European trades.


The 4-hour chart showed the EUR/USD cut through the 100-EMA downwards while 100 and 200-EMAs directed upwards, showing the 50-EMA to drove downwards.


Resistance was seen at 1.0700, support entered at 1.0650.


The MACD histogram grew less which indicates a sell signal. RSI indicator spent the day around the oversold territory, confirming a renewed higher move.


Forecasts say a move on top of the immediate resistance involves higher chance of testing the region 1.0750. Alternatively, a sell-off has a probability to occur towards mark 1.0650.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: April 3, 2017


The renewed figures of British Gross Domestic Product saddened the investors as it presented lower than expected results. The report stalled the current recovery which pushed the spot downwards.


The Cable started the day with a bullish tone. Traders successfully lead the price near the resistance level 1.2500 where the spot met new offers. The GBP/USD stirred away from the barrier in the mid-session of Asian hours and sustained a downward sentiment amid European trades.


The price moved close the mark 1.2450 in the middle part of the day in which the sterling lost its selling impetus.


The 4-hour chart pointed out the 50-EMA being tested by the major. Meanwhile, the 50 and 100-EMAs preserved its bullish pattern, alongside the 200-EMA to appear neutral.


Resistance touched 1.2500, support entered 1.2400.


The MACD histogram increased indicating weak seller’s position. The RSI maintained its position within the neutral grounds.


The major is seen struggling with an aim to build towards the recovery gains. A break over the region 1.2500, the next focus would probably the 1.2600 mark.

 

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: April 4, 2017


The USD/CAD pair had a fairly good trading session yesterday as it tested its range highs and is now trading at just under its range highs. The USD/CAD is expected to remain within the 1.3300-1.3400 region as of the moment and this was very evident during yesterday’s session. The market is now waiting for the string of economic data set to be released within this week. The market is now in a ranging and consolidation mood as traders prepare themselves for the possible repercussions of this said release of various economic data.


Oil prices dropped a bit below $51 yesterday, which is one of the main reasons behind the sudden weakness in the Canadian dollar. The Canadian economy is highly dependent on oil prices and as such, an increase in oil prices would mean an increase in the CAD and vice versa. And since oil prices dropped yesterday, this resulted to a weak CAD as well and caused the USD/CAD pair to go above 1.3350 points before moving towards its range highs of 1.3400 points. The currency pair was then met with a lot of selloffs, and although yesterday was a generally very dismal trading session, volatility levels are expected to increase today as several economic data are scheduled to be released within the week.


The Canadian Trade Balance Data will be released today, and the market will be monitoring this reading since this is a very essential economic basis for the Canadian economy especially due to its trade relationship with US. This is expected to increase volatility in the pair and could cause the USD/CAD to break through 1.3400 and could even reach 1.3500 points.

 

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 5, 2017


The EUR/USD pair is still trading within a very limited range, although the pair’s bulls have somewhat managed to maintain its hold on the currency pair in spite of the pair’s inability to move in any definite direction for quite a while now. The pair’s bulls were initially expected to surrender its gains in order to enable the EUR to advance towards 1.0500 points at least prior to the FOMC meeting, but so far this has not yet occurred and it is possible that the minutes will be released with the EUR/USD pair still trapped within its current trading range.


The market was taken by surprise yesterday as Fed member Lacker tendered his resignation after admitting that he had leaked top-secret information with regards to the 2012 FOMC meeting to a certain financial institution. Lacker has also stated that the firm’s analysts had the said information but regardless of Lacker’s manipulation of the said statement, it remains clear that he has illegally leaked confidential information and subsequently resigned when the said scheme was revealed. The USD had surprisingly no reaction to to this particular news once it was released.


However, during today’s session, the USD backtracked across the board as the EUR/USD pair surged from 1.0650 points and traded very near its range highs of 1.0680 points. As of the moment, the market is now in a consolidating move as a lot of economic data are expected to be released later today. The ADP Employment Change data will be released today, which is an important piece of economic news since this is largely considered as a basis for the result of the NFP report. The US Manufacturing PMI data will also be released, followed by the FOMC minutes towards the close of the NY session. A volatility surge is expected prior to the release of the FOMC minutes and as such, traders are advised to tread very carefully with regards to trading with the EUR/USD pair. The pair’s bulls are most likely to dominate the pair and could enable the EUR/USD pair to inch higher during today’s series of sessions.

 

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: April 5, 2017


The USD/CAD pair briefly made it towards 1.3400 points and even managed to surpass this region following a series of very dismal economic readings from the Canadian economy. However, the advancement of the Canadian dollar was almost immediately met with tremendous pressure from sellers, causing the CAD to retreat towards 1.3400 points. Analysts are now saying that unless the USD/CAD pair manages to surpass the large-scale selling at 1.3500 points, then the currency pair would be unable to make any significant progress as of now. But the pair’s bulls have yet to reveal how they plan to handle this dilemma in the pair as the USD is expected to be more level in the next few days on the back of an increase in oil prices.


The 1.3500 region has proven to be very crucial for the USD/CAD pair since the currency pair has been unable to overcome this pair for several times in a row. The currency pair would have to have large-scale buys in order to push past through this region and reach 1.4000 points. As of the moment, the Canadian economy has been throwing up some fairly decent economic data, although the Canadian trade balance data had somewhat paled and could be a precursor to a dismal future for the country’s economy. The trade balance data was at a negative while the market was expecting a positive reading, and this basically means that the country’s imports and exports are most likely to suffer in the long run.


However, the increase in oil prices could possibly provide a short-term breather for the Canadian economy, and since the USD is expected to experience short-term consolidations, the USD/CAD pair would most likely follow this particular trend and consolidate within 1.3300-1.3500 points. However, the pair is still not strong enough to surpass 1.3500 in the near future.


For today’s session, there are no releases from the Canadian economy but the US will be releasing several economic readings, such as the ADP employment change data and the FOMC meeting minutes. The NY session could possibly be met by a significant amount of volatility and if the pair’s price touches the 1.3500 range, then this could be a great opportunity for a stop loss.