Forex Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 1, 2017


The EUR/USD pair looks poised to make another attempt at reaching its current range highs as the currency pair was able to take advantage of a correction in the greenback. This upward pressure in the currency pair is expected to last well into the first few days of June, particularly the 2 most essential trading days for this month.


The dollar experienced corrections on the back of a couple of disappointing data from the US economy. The first one was the Chicago PMI data, which failed to meet its expected economic reading and the pending home sales data, which also disappointed the entirety of the market yesterday. This triggered a large-scale dollar selloff against other major currencies and has enabled the EUR/USD pair to advance towards 1.1200 and was even able to reach 1.1250 points throughout the course of the NY session. Since the Fed had previously clarified that the implementation of the June rate hike will be wholly dependent on the results of the incoming economic readings from the US, the market has become very sensitive to readings coming from the US economy, with even minor readings inducing major volatility levels on the market especially if these comes out as very disappointing for investors. Eventually, the PMI data was revised to a much higher reading and this helped to cushion the blow of the fall of the USD, although this has left an impression on the market with regards to the adverse effects of a negative reading to the value of the US dollar. Meanwhile, the USD continues to be in peril in spite of its drop in value being temporarily stalled.


For today’s trading session, there are no major news releases coming from the EU economy while the US will be releasing its unemployment claims data and its ADP Non-Farm Employment change data during the NY session, which is a precedent to the release of the NFP report on Friday. This particular bit of news is then expected to induce major volatility levels and a move of the currency pair below 1.1200 points should be a signal for the pair’s bulls to rethink their positions.

 

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: June 1, 2017


The Euro against the British pound was highly volatile during the Wednesday session. It is being in tested in the upper channel and a pullback was seen reaching the opening for the day. The market is attempting to gain sufficient impetus to break higher than the 0.88 level followed by 0.90 level.


In the long-term, this pair seems to be much stronger although there is a lot of noise found in the upper channel causing the choppiness of the market. The market might move slower especially with various major reports from the European Union and Britain. Same goes for Brussels and London which will be the center of attention and this market can be easily affected by these outside forces.


It won’t be long before this pair rallies upward and it is advisable to either buy after a breakout or be more careful and wait on the sidelines. Selling might be more difficult for this pair neither placing a short-term orde. However, a move lower than the 0.86 handle is a good thing although it seems that the buyers dominate participants but might now last in the current condition of the market.

 

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 1, 2017


The USD/CAD pair was able to advance further towards its range highs during the previous session in spite of the greenback suffering blows against other major currency pairs due to a series of disappointing economic data from the US economy. The loonie is now trading at just above 1.3500 points which is considered to be a very essential trading region for the currency pair. However, the market has yet to see whether the USD/CAD pair will indeed manage to go even higher and reclaim its bullish price action or if it will correct and return to its previous trading range.


This surge in the value of the USD/CAD pair has been mostly attributed to a string of weak economic data from Canada. As the Canadian GDP was released during yesterday’s session, the annual and quarterly readings for 2016 disappointed the market in spite of a very positive monthly reading. This was far worse than what the market had initially anticipated and has caused the loonie to correct and the USD/CAD pair to increase further in value. Oil prices also dropped while the Canadian inventory data showed a solid draw in addition to an added increase of Libyan production data. This caused both the Canadian dollar and oil prices to drop and was more than enough for the currency pair’s bulls to help prop up the value of the USD/CAD pair past 1.3500 points where it is currently sitting as of the moment.


For today’s session, the market is expecting the release of unemployment claims data and the ADP employment report from the US economy, both of which are of utmost importance since this serves as a precursor to the incoming NFP report due tomorrow. The oil inventory data is set to be released today, and this, together with the NFP report will most likely determine the short-term price action of the USD/CAD pair.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: June 2, 2017


The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar did not have a good trading session on Thursday. It breaks at the 0.74 level followed by a rebound towards the 0.7420 region. Since then, the market declined and broke to a fresh new low. Currently, the pair is depreciating and makes it more vulnerable to further decline especially since the jobs data will come out today.


If the jobs data met the expectations, then this will most likely push the currency lower towards the 0.73 handle. However, if the pair moves in the upper channel then this would open opportunities to buy this pair especially if it breaks higher than the 0.7475 region. Although, we cannot be certain of now if this would occur since the market is still undecided on which direction to choose.


The next target for this pair is 0.73 level with the tendency to move forward which makes it more favorable for selling. The market already anticipates this and it will be good to follow so.

It seems that the currency is having a difficult time while the New Zealand dollar is performing better. Even so, traders still opt for the Aussie but traders should be cautious in buying this pair in the current low levels.


Overall the pair is sold-off by traders and it is reasonable to move along with this move. However, if this pair opens for the 0.73 region, this will push the price to lower levels immediately.

 

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: June 2, 2017


The Kiwi dollar declined in the day during Thursday trade while testing the mark 0.7050. Despite the choppiness of the market, the New Zealand currency have the possibility to beat the Australian dollar. It does not mean that the market will establish an optimistic stance, rather it will become more resilient. The market will search the level below 0.70 because this holds a nice large figure, however, the release of US employment figures on Friday involves plenty of noise.

The market will found the resistance on top of the 0.71 handle and the rally will soon fade away because the mentioned region seems resistive. As indicated on the higher level of the chart, some type of channel are trying to develop.


The NZDUSD is not easy to deal with because it is the least liquid among major pair and when the announcement is made, it would likely to have a violent move. With this, it is suggested to steer clear from the commodity-linked pair as this could lead you to pain if you did not take proper caution. The ability to break down under 0.70 region would break down significantly. It signals a longer-term indicator, either way, it could toggle continually moving a gradual ascending grind.


As the market maintain a choppy stance, lots of opportunities were also offered.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: June 5, 2017


The GBPUSD declined on Friday and face through some volatility as the U.S. employment figures released with a lower than anticipated results.


The market now appeared to hover below the 1.29 handle considered as a major level. The ability to break on top of the said region would lead the market towards 1.3050 area which provided a significant resistance.


Buying on the dips remain to be the most suitable way in playing the market beneath 1.2850 that has been offering an amount of support. Meanwhile, a break over 1.29 range would trigger a continuous higher movement. In the long term, buyers will still get involved and show further strength sooner or later.


Headline risk could still remain since concerns regarding British exit keep forging ahead. This might influence the sterling in any moment. Ultimately, the pair can find a bottom upon staying beyond the level 1.2750.


Moreover, the built-in bid resumes in regards to the GBP. An attempt to move ahead the 1.3450 handle should be done. However, lots of issues and concerns surrounds the British economy, therefore it may take some time to reach the target. Selling is ruled out except when we cut through down the 1.2750 area.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: June 5, 2017


The EURUSD moved through an upward direction on Friday after the release of weak data on employment report. The U.S yields further weakened as prices ascended at a faster pace compared with the European bonds. This made the euro lure attraction of investors prior the ECB meeting scheduled next week.


The European producer price manifested stronger figures, beating expectation which paved the way for a higher rate on the pair. The pair had broken out on the back of a bull flag formation which serves as a pause to refresh higher.


The prices increased by 1.1282 region just shy of 1.1299 close to November 8 highs. The next resistance target is found at the mark 1.1365 near the highs of August 2016. The support reached 1.1206 area around the 10-day moving average.


The momentum came in neutral while the MACD histogram printed nearby the zero-index level whereas the index appeared to be in a flat trajectory suggesting for a consolidation.

 

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 6, 2017


The USD/CAD pair continues to exhibited a very tight price action as the pair’s bulls and bears continue to fight out for the control of the currency pair and is expected to remain as the pair’s dominant trend in the short-term period. The pair has been trapped in a very limited range ever since the currency pair managed to push forward past 1.3500 points with buyers dominating the 1.3400 trading range.


During the past few days, oil prices have remained stable, thereby decreasing the amount of leverage it gave to the Canadian dollar and was one of the reasons why the loonie was unable to take full advantage of the dollar weakness which was due to a series of dismal US employment reports last week. Oil prices has also continued to be very disappointing due to rising tensions in the oil-rich Middle Eastern countries and has subsequently diminished its support for the loonie. In spite of the pair making a headway towards 1.3460 for a short while, it was almost immediately met with several buys, causing the USD/CAD pair to retreat towards 1.3500 points, where it is expected to stay put at least in the coming days. The market is now preparing itself for the trading sessions on Thursday and Friday as the currency pair would most likely undergo a volatile trading session due to Comey’s testimony as well as the release of the Canadian employment report on Friday. This is why traders are advised to remain in the sidelines until such time that a break shows up on the pair’s range before inducing any kind of progress in their trades.


For today’s session, there are now major releases from both the US and the Canadian economy and the USD/CAD pair is expected to continue consolidating throughout the duration of today’s session.

 

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: June 6, 2017


The New Zealand broke in the lower channel during the Monday session. Later, the trend bounced off to fill the gap then declined again. There is massive support found in the 0.71 below which triggered the market to rise again as it reached the former break level. Currently, the market is attempting to move higher as it gains momentum to reach the 0.7150 region which would hint a bullish sentiment.


The market could also retreat from this level towards the 0.71 handle once more. Overall, there will be high volatility and persist for some time in the market since the New Zealand dollar is relative to commodities market which always changes. Hence, the currency is expected to be traded with a choppy environment.


Buying on the lows is advisable for this pair and is not surprising for them to return as the trend moves in a downtrend. However, shorting this pair may not be the best move. If the price breaks lower than the 0.71 handle, the next move would be to go downward toward the 0.7050 level.


Nevertheless, the market will be very choppy driven by geopolitical risks and in consideration of its sensitivity opting the U.S. dollars as a safety currency while the kiwi being the riskier one in this pair. Volatility is also anticipated to persist in either direction it goes.

 

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: June 7, 2017


The NZDUSD rallied amid trades on Tuesday and broke the level on top of 0.7150 smoothly. The Kiwi dollar continued to search for buyers on dips and tend to handle some pullback as an opportunity to increase rate.


The market tried to touch the region above 0.72, en route 0.75 afterwards. As shown in the chart, the area around 0.71 handle provides a lot of support and regarded to be the floor of the market in the near-term uptrend. The commodity space continues to weigh on the market and the NZD seems to be the “barometer” towards the overall sentiment of futures trading. Watch closely for the commodity because it could possibly show the way.


It could be a good move to buy dips moving forward because it suits the current status of the New Zealand currency. Selling remains impossible as far as we breach under the 0.71 mark. A successful break down prompts the market to reach the range below 0.7050 which is very supportive previously, along with the 0.70 region. In any case, the market remains to be volatile, however, the moving averages came in reliable, particularly the 48-hour MA shown in green color, hence it should offer further buying opportunities.


The volatility driven market persists, but the late impulsivity indicates that buyers begin to develop more confident as it moves ahead. Moreover, the dips will provide value which is an advantage to market participants.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: June 7, 2017


The GBPUSD had attempted to rally yesterday, however, retreated to the level 1.2950 to return underneath the 1.29 handle. In the past few sessions, the market appeared to have a little bit of overall bullish pressure, waiting for the results of UK elections expected tomorrow. In this case, the market will probably experience choppiness and unprepared to conduct a significant move yet. Short-term volatility is predicted along with some choppy spots but a general ascending momentum should also be anticipated. It does not mean that a pull cannot be accomplished, it only implies that longer-term charts and the range below 1.2750 should offer massive support that will surely lure the attention of the majority of market participants.


After the session on Friday, the long-term outlook for the pair shall be available as it could be very difficult from this moment and the next.


Buying the dips remains to be the best option for the Cable but the dips showed to be somewhat steep. You should have got small positions as of now and after the election results in order to acquire lesser damage that might suddenly arise.


Markets have lots of speculation regarding the election decision, therefore a cool level head should be maintained as this is crucial for the following sessions.


In the longer-term, the pair might break the 1.3050 mark as it allows the market move higher freely, or maybe reach its long-term target found at the region 1.3450.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: June 9, 2017



The EURUSD drove downwards as the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain the interest rates on a steady pace coupled with dropped easing bias. This further took a neutral position with regards the way they will see the monetary policy.



The schedule for quantitative easing remained unchanged while rates should be expected to retain its recent levels as reflected in the transcripts.



The pair moved near the support shown at 1.1220 mark that lies around the 10-day moving average which currently serves as the resistance in the near-term. Further resistance sits at 1.1285 region close to the weekly highs. An ascending sloping trendline is found at 1.1140 area. Meanwhile, the momentum turned towards the negative territory and the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) produced a crossover signal to sell prompted by the intersection of the spread under the 9-day moving average. The histogram shifted from positive en route the negative grounds and confirmed a sell signal.

 

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: June 9, 2017



The British pound paired against the Japanese yen had a volatile session during the Thursday session. This is not surprising because of the U.K. parliamentary elections. Although, traders are not sure what is the general attitude of the market regarding Brexit leaving uncertainty in investors.



Towards the end of the day, the pair rallies forward with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level close to the 142.75 handle. Low levels have been higher which could continue to go up. The 143 region is starting to be strongly resistive and if the market is successful in breaking this level, the price could move higher. As of now, the market is still in consolidation.



However, if the price fell down to the 142 handle, there are more buyers interested in this pair. If the market is successful to break out in the upper channel, it will suggest a “risk on/off” sentiment which is a common reaction here. Traders should be cautious to avoid losses since they could incur bigger losses if not careful. Same goes for the USD/JPY pair and position in smaller trades which is relevant for this pair.



Nevertheless, it is also a good move to buy the pair for long-term but still with some caution before posting large orders since the market is still unstable. It is safer to wait until next week or after the results of U.K. election.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: June 13, 2017


The European Central Bank decided to stabilize the apple cart and did not talk about the withdrawal of Quantitative Easing turning the focus towards the talks regarding Brexit and politics. Italian elections were delayed which helped yields from Italy to decline on the back of an extensive narrowing of spreads followed by the dovish remarks pronounced by M. Draghi.
However, lots of political challenges remain in the future.


The anti-European forces appeared to be inactive while in Catalonia, Spain threatens the stability of the Spanish country due to the independence referendum planned for October 1.


The debt relief of Greece continue to hang in the Euro region and this is the expected major topic in the EU meeting scheduled on Thursday.


The EURUSD tried to move higher but failed to reacquire its previous resistance found at 1.1227 level close to the 10-day moving average.


The exchange rate indicates the second day of the Doji formation that further shows uncertainties where the close and open levels are in the same range.


Moreover, the pair seems to generate a head and shoulder reversal pattern which starts to produce the right shoulder followed by the left and lastly the head which resistance region entered the 1.1285 area.


Prices in the previous weeks failed to break 1.1299 mark seen around the November 8 highs. The major’s near-term support holds 1.1109 near the lows of May 29.


The momentum became negative since the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) develops a sell signal to take a crossover. It emerged because the spread crosses underneath the 9-day exponential moving average. The histogram shifted to negative grounds from the positive territory establishing a sell signal. The index also prints in the read paired with a descending trajectory that points towards a lower rate of the EUR/USD.

 

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: June 13, 2017



The Euro against the British pound move sideways during the Monday session. It broke above the 0.88 handle as the market continues to sell off the currency. This is a significant move while it seems that the market is not ready to retreat. Pullbacks would then attract more buyers and the 0.88 region below continues to be supportive.



However, if the price breaks lower and the gap is filled, this could send the price lower as low as 0.8650 and lower. Some pullbacks would open buying opportunities indicating massive support below. There is still a possibility to move higher towards the 0.90 level which hints as a significant psychological level.



The British currency has depreciated which drags the pair more than the other. On the other hand, the Euro is steadily moving in the market. The impulsive action is most likely driven by the pound more than other aspects. The uncertainty persists in the market which entails the pair could climb higher.



The 0.90 region gives off a significant resistance and a break over this would provide more long-term opportunities. It may not be wise to sell this pair since there are other things to consider in selling off this pair. However, if the pair breaks in the base of the breakdown, this would significantly shift the movement which could induce selling and this is not gonna be good for the pair.

 

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 14, 2017



The EUR/USD pair merely continued its tight trading action during yesterday’s session as the market braces itself for the announcement coming from the FOMC scheduled for today. The currency pair had initially attempted to move towards the bottom if its range but was immediately met with some large-scale buys in the 1.1160-1.1180 range, prompting the currency pair to revert to its original range.



During the previous session, the most important region for the pair’s bulls and bears was the 1.1200 trading range, with the currency pair managing to close down yesterday’s session at just over this particular range. However, this would all be futile if ever the Fed decides to implement another interest rate hike and release a very hawkish statement. As of the moment, the market has priced in a 90% possibility of rate hike, with the Fed neither confirming nor denying rumors of a possible interest rate hike. The market has taken this as a positive signal from the Fed as far as the rate hike is concerned, and this is one of the reasons why the EUR/USD pair is now trading within its range lows paired with somewhat tame bounces in between as the USD continues to hold on to its current value. Now that the rate hike is already priced in, the market will now be shifting its focus towards the FOMC statement, where the central bank is expected give clues with regards to the next rate hike. The next scheduled rate hike was initially scheduled to be implemented this coming September, however a series of negative data from the US economy has caused doubts on whether the central bank will be indeed pushing through with the next rate hike.



Aside from the FOMC rate announcement, the US economy will also be releasing its retail sales data and CPI data, both of which are expected to induce volatility levels into the EUR/USD pair. However, since the market will be focusing today on the rate announcement, a volatility surge is expected right after the release of the FOMC statement.

 

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: June 15, 2017



The U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar declined during the Wednesday session. It broke lower than the 1.32 level. However, there are still concerns in betting this pair considering the possibility of a rally because of the speculations to the Bank of Canada to tighten its rates or lessen its quantitative easing.



Generally, the market is focused on various factors. One is the oil market which has an impact on the Canadian dollar. There is a chance that the central bank would have a drastic change to the price trend to support the Loonie. Currently, there is uncertainty in the oil market that the investors should closely monitor besides other economic problems.



Furthermore, what the Federal Reserve is doing would have an effect to the trading market and just recently, there was a sell-off in the pair for the past few days which could unexpectedly turn into bullishness instead of bearishness. Three handles have already been lost indicating strong moves over the last three days. This makes other currencies to be traded easier. However, if the Federal Reserve made a surprising move to raise its interest rates for the second half of the year, the market will turn into chaos and surge to the upper channel along with the Japanese yen major pair against the greenback.

 

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 16, 2017



The EUR/USD pair exhibited a correction during the past 24 hours as the US dollar regained its strength following the recent Fed rate hike. This was pretty much expected for the EUR/USD pair once the London session commenced and were able to react on this recent development from the US economy.



The market faced a slight disorientation halfway through yesterday’s NY session as the Fed mulled over whether it will still push through with its planned interest rate hike in spite of a series of disappointing economic data from the US. Luckily, the central bank decided to go ahead and push through with the said hike and even chose to shrug off the weak economic data as a mere one-off and instead kept its focus on future rate hikes as well as the overall economic health of the country. This gave off a bullish undertone to the market, and the market responded accordingly by triggering a massive dollar buying across all currencies. As a result, the EUR/USD pair sank through 1.1200 points and spent a short while at the 1.1160-1.1170 support range, and although the pair was met with some buying within this range, this buying lasted only for a brief period and the pair eventually dropped towards 1.1130 points before finally settling at just under 1.1150 points, where it continued to trade in a very weak manner, with its next short-term target located at 1.1100 points. There were some positive data coming in from the EU, while the IMF also stated that the EU economy seems to be consistently improving, but so far this has had no effect on the EUR/USD pair.



For today’s trading session, there are no major releases from the eurozone while the US economy will be releasing its building permits data. The dollar is expected to remain trading in a consistently strong manner which could put additional pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: June 19, 2017



The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen climbed higher during the Friday session. There is a massive resistance found in the 11.40 level to reverse the trend followed by a decline. A neutral candle is formed for the day although the market is trying to gain momentum as they are trying to recover following the drastic move in the upside on Thursday.



The Federal Reserve is being hawkish more than expected which is favorable for the greenback since the Bank of Japan moves contradictorily when it comes to monetary policy. The 110 region remains supportive which would most likely become the floor of the market.



For now, it is advisable to short this pair to take advantage of its short-term decline and rendering more support for every short-term credit. This is still not finite and the trend could decline anytime although the next move would most likely be in the upside reflecting the impulsiveness of the market. Hence, buying is much more practical in the current market condition.



The initial next target would be at 112 then 112.50 level. For long-term, the trend could reach as high as 115 region although it might take longer to achieve this. There is also a tendency for the pair to be volatile which is not surprising. It is good to trade this pair in the current market as it could also benefit the greenback traded against the yen since the BOJ is dovish and most likely continue for a longer period of time.

 

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 20, 2017



The USD/CAD pair continues to consolidate within its range lows as the loonie makes another attempt to recover its losses and possibly trigger a bounce in its value. Now that the Bank of Canada is more than eager to help the Canadian economy make a 360-degree turn, the pair’s bulls will be in for a hard time as it tries to induce any kind of price bounce. Should the pair manage to create a bounce, then this should be viewed as a selling opportunity and should not be taken as a trend adjustment.



On the other hand, oil prices are still trading within its bottom rungs and remains weak as of the moment, however the CAD seems to be unaffected by this and has still managed to look very positive and has remained trading in a very positive manner. The CAD will only be able to gain some measure of short-term strength if the oil prices will be able to recover in the short run, and if this happens, then the USD/CAD pair might be able to make a substantial attempt to go beyond the critical range of 1.3000 points. The currency pair has weakened significantly ever since it surpassed 1.3500, with this region signalling a trend shift. The fact that the currency pair is still doing very well in spite of a drop in oil prices and dollar strength just goes to show how much of a change has happened within the price action of the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, the economic releases from the Canadian economy has showed consistently positive readings, with the BoC announcing its plans to help keep the country’s economy on the upside.



For today’s trading session, there are no major releases from the Canadian economy, and the USD/CAD pair is expected to range and consolidate on both directions of 1.3200 points.