Forex Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: June 21, 2017



The Australian currency attempted to initiate a rally amid the day and reversed to sell off. The 0.7575 mark was being tested due Aussie’s actions, hence, it provides a significant amount of support. In case that a breakdown occurred beyond that point, the market will be pushed down through 0.7550 region which is an interesting area in the past.



The market will keep on reaching the 0.765 handle when a bounce happen and when it break into the upside will drove near the region 0.7750.



At the end of the day, the market will continue following its risk appetite and traders should watch closely what will happen within that point. The central bank of New Zealand is expected to release a statement about interest rates scheduled today while the Aussie dollar will seek the same path.



Moreover, gold markets remain to be in a downbeat which can be felt by the AUD as well. With this, players should search for a support below prior the rebound. As the market still have challenging nature to deal with because of the many bits and pieces moving around, particularly the plan of the Fed Reserve to increase rates.



Above all, the pressure brought by the precious metal, gold paired with the general outlook on risk tolerance is projected to wrought a chaotic situation over the market.



In this event, it is complicated to determine where to go next as the consolidation is anticipated to keep going.

 

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 23, 2017



The USD/CAD pair has returned to its downtrodden price action as the Canadian economy released some very dismal data on the back of a steadily dropping oil prices. The currency pair was unable to surpass the very critical trading range of 1.3300-1.3330 points, thus stopping it from making any advancements towards 1.3500 and instead caused the currency pair to return to its downtrending price direction.



With the present state of the currency pair, it is now evident that the USD/CAD pair will be unable to make any decisive rebounds at least for the time being. The Canadian economy continues to throw some consistently good economic data, signaling that the country’s economic outlook remains on the positive. All this, including a highly positive retail sales data from the region could increase the chances of the Bank of Canada implementing an interest rate hike before the end of 2017. The central bank had previously hinted of this possibility a few weeks ago, and this further added to the downward pressure on the loonie. Oil prices have also managed to hold their ground in spite of its continuously weak outlook, with this oil prices the only thing stopping the USD/CAD pair to go full on with regards to completing its downturn. As of now, the USD/CAD pair is still continuing with its downtrend and if this further progresses, then the loonie will possibly reach 1.3100-1.3000 in the short term period.



For today’s trading session, the Canadian economy will be releasing its CPI data, and if this turns out to be positive as well, then this could enable the USD/CAD to drop further towards 1.3100 points.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: June 27, 2017


The EURUSD is trading sideways during Monday’s session, however, met the resistance level at 1.12. A breakdown below that point and touched under the region 1.1175, then spotted a slightly bullish pressure. A cut through on top of the 1.12 handle and a pulled back from that point will see for another support.


With this, the pair is inclined to continue its ascending trend or maybe tried to touch the 1.13 mark in the longer term.


Volatility is still high in the market which would likely cause the single European currency to remain a market that is not easy to trade with, therefore, buying is our only choice.

The “fair value” is found at the 1.12 area and this point should be maintained. Buyers are starting to dominate the market, and there is no reason to stop moving near the 1.13 mark again.


It is possible that the market will continue to provide lots of buying opportunities on the dips in the short-term at least.


The market appeared to be crucial when imposing a sell signal unless we break the region under 1.1170. Ability to breakdown will lead the market towards 1.1125 handle.


A cut through over 1.13 mark, the market will drive going to the top of 1.15 range which is a strong barrier as indicated on the longer-term charts. As consolidation between the bottom of 1.05 and top of 1.15 continues in the past three years.

 

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 28, 2017


The EUR/USD was able to jump higher due to hawkish remarks of ECB head, Draghi coupled with the events happened in the United States that caused the greenbacks to weaken in general during Wednesday’s trading. The pair gained more than 160 pips in the past 24 hours and ultimately, the bullishness lasted in the past few weeks become apparent.


During the first part of the day, the pair had a usual day spending time under the 1.12 level consolidating. Followed by the statement of Draghi, who frequently not discuss monetary policy on his speeches, however, this happened yesterday that moved that market.


The European Central Bank is regarded to have a bearish stance but the strong data in the previous months that forced the bank to change their stand. Recently, M. Draghi mentioned his best indication regarding changes in track and stated that there is a likelihood that the central bank would start the tapering of QE very soon. This seems to be very hawkish for the European currency and the underlying strength aided the pair in pushing higher touching the 1.1250 level above.


A short interruption occurred prior the 1.13 area that acts like a wall in the past months and has the potential to stop the pair within that point and conduct another reversal. Nonetheless, there are reports about the delay in the US healthcare reform bill due to diverging ideas coming from the Republicans per se. This event caused the USD to lose its strength in general due to worries regarding the policy paralysis in the US that was triggered once again. It further leads the pair across the region 1.13 above and trading comfortably as of this writing.


Previous forecasts say that every last week of the each month will probably witness high volatility and this has been proven right.


We expect today for another statement from the head of ECB with an anticipation to talk about fiscal policy again and if he does not mention this or anything that contradicts his comments, the pair will remain to move upwards as it was far away from the 1.13 resistance.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: June 30, 2017



The currency pair EUR/USD had broken out and expected to resume its upward movement while inflation data appeared to be stronger than anticipated that lead the European yields higher.


The yield differential currently moves to the side of EU yields that paved the way for the single European currency to gain higher.


Confidence further surges on its renewed decade highs while consumer lending also increased. Most of the headlines from the United States came in better than expected, however, American yields are following its EU counterparts that put pressure to USD.


The pair broke out through its fresh 1-year peaks over the resistance at 1.1365 around highs of August 2016 while trying to test 1.1616 level near May 2016 peaks.


The support reached 1.1365 mark which is a previous resistance, followed by the 10-day moving average seen at 1.1148 region.


The pair’s momentum became positive when the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) produced a crossover buy signal. It was generated due to spread that crosses on top of the 9-day moving average. The histogram shifted from negative to positive zone and confirmed a buy signal. The index prints in the black with an ascending trajectory indicating a higher exchange rate.

 

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: June 30, 2017



The New Zealand currency experienced a volatile session during Wednesday's trading reaching the downtrend line shown in the weekly timeframe, and eventually, break down.


A position under the 0.73 handle indicates a slightly bearish tone, but, the longer-term market attempts to establish an adequate pressure to accomplish a breakout.


The downtrend line is important as the commodity markets do not offer any help towards the NZD. Having said that, performing a breakout might be difficult however when doing so, it should be massive as it touches the level 0.75 in short order.


Alternatively, it is also possible to breakdown but it requires a gap under the 0.7250 region to be conference since that area is considered to be a “lower low”


The NZDUSD pair endured an extreme volatility in the last few sessions suggests the previous situation within the Forex market in general.


The Kiwi dollar is known to be the least liquid among major pair that’s why we normally see lots of noise.


The current level of 0.73 is basically a “fair value” for the pair, hence, short-term traders would likely resume moving from side to side around that territory.


In the longer-term, a confirmation in order to complete the breakout is necessary even for bullish traders, as a means to put money to play within a really choppy market.


In case that, agricultural futures gained higher value this would mean that the NZ dollar will receive some support. But it appeared that traders’ attention is focused on the current situation of the interest rate.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: July 03, 2017



The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen moved laterally during the Friday session. It proceed to grind close to the 112 level and if the market is successful in breaking higher than the peak of the range for the day, the next move of the market would be towards 113 handle. Buyers continue to jump in the market following the dovish decision of the Bank of Japan regarding its monetary policy. Any pullback cannot be a telltale sign of a downtrend, not until a break lower than the 110 region has been achieved to determine if the potential uptrend has ended.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 5, 2017



The euro-dollar pair resumed its downfall while the U.S. yields were able to make further progress on the back of the stronger-than-expected result of the ISM Manufacturing report issued on Monday. The US market was closed on Tuesday due to Independence Day holiday, however, there are few catalysts that stimulate the EURUSD amid balance of the week which includes the United States’ Payroll report on Friday.



The pair headed lower and bound to test the support close to the 10-day moving average found at 1.129. The exchange rate eased from the 1.14 handle which is considered the 1-year high and stayed around 1.1350 region near the peaks of August 2016.



The resistance highlighted the 1.1444 mark. Momentum came in neutral while the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram prints in the black linked with a flat trajectory which suggests some consolidation.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 6, 2017


The EURUSD rebounded from its session lows after the release of FOMC minutes which indicates rising concerns of Fed officials regarding the drop in inflation accelerating.


The pair buoyed due to stronger data showed by the EU PMI and Retail Sales.


Peter Praet from the European Central Bank strongly suggests to be leery and patient and take it slow in changing the monetary policy.


The pair further bounced around the support level 1.1318 close to the 10-day moving average.


The resistance approached the 1.1444 region around the June highs. The momentum on the euro-dollar pair came in neutral while the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram prints near the zero index level. The index constitutes a flat trajectory pointing towards consolidation.

 

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 7, 2017


The EUR/USD climb higher on the positive news for the single European currency and brought negative news for the US dollar, hence, this helped the pair to return towards the range of its highs where it previously existed.


The euro-dollar pair appeared to be very bullish as of this time while traders and euro bulls will cheer up due to the fact that a major portion of this is from the existing strength of the EUR. This not the same during the earlier times wherein the pair trailed upwards following the dollar’s weakness.


As mentioned in the earlier forecast, the bullish run will remain intact within this pair and it appeared that will take some time prior the euro recovery. This happened yesterday due to the release of ECB minutes which clearly indicates that officials talked about preserving the QE tapering. However, decided to hold back until the inflation data support this move. It further shows that the ECB is very serious in considering the tapering as this also wrought a large increase for the EUR. In case that it lacks steam to push the EURUSD higher, we could rely on the ADP employment report which presented lower than expected value of 158K versus projections of 185K.


As the ADP served as a precursor to the NFP scheduled to be released later this day, it further acts as a reminder for the dollar bulls that they are not yet far from that critical phase and that other challenges and struggle continues in the near-term. With this, the trend of sluggish US data resumed in the past couple of days. This questioned the Fed’s decision on ignoring the weak data after they implemented rate hike in the previous month. Ultimately, the focus is on the NFP along with the wages report and should be keenly monitored. Any hints of weakness in this report will only need some stimulant in order for the euro bulls to support the pair to 1.05 level.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: July 10, 2017


The main trend of the AUD/USD pair in the daily swing chart is moving in an uptrend. However, the momentum is pushing it to go lower. When the trade exceeds the .7712, this will shift the main trend to move up.


A trade at the .7571 level indicates the continuation of the downtrend and possibly towards the minor base at .7535 region. A breakdown to this level will shift the course of the minor trend to go down.


The main trend range between .7372 and .7712 with a retracement level at .7542 and .7502 as the next lower target. With the uptrend of the market, the buyers will most likely return to the test zone. For short-term, the range is between .7712 and .7571 with the retracement area at .7642 and .7658 which is the next upside target. Sellers might counter the trend belligerently and attempt to create a secondary lower top in the next test.


The closing during Friday was positioned at .7600, similar to the price movement this morning. The direction of the AUD/USD pair highly depends on the trader’s sentiment to the downtrend angle at .7592.


When the .7592 is held, this signifies the presence of buyers in the market and could further go up with the potential targets at .7632, .7642, .7632 and .7658 levels. On the other hand, when the .7592 level is kept steady, this indicates the presence of sellers. The target level when the price moves to the downside with the initial target at .7571 then .7542 to .7535 levels.


Traders should monitor the angle at .7592. The reaction of traders will determine if buyers will enter the market or sellers will put in a selling pressure instead.

 

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: July 11, 2017


The British pound attempted to soar against the Japanese yen but failed as it pulled back to the 147 level. The market has been advancing in the long term more like grinding and gain from small increments.


It seems that the market is going to decline for any particular period of time since the Bank of Japan will most likely maintain its low borrowing rates for long-term. Whilst the Bank of England might increase its rates in near-term and after some time, the price could break towards the 150 level. Currently, it is a little bit over extended laterally that makes grinding a way to gain impetus and proceed to the upper channel for long-term.


Buying dips would be an ideal to gain in short-term but restricted to not so good moves (20 to 30 pips is attainable). However, if it breaks lower than the 146 level then this could proceed lower towards the 145 handle which can be more supportive compared to the areas being tested as of the moment.


It may be a bit difficult to trade the GBP/JPY pair yet the market signals that they favor the uptrend. Hence, it is best to hold shorting this pair especially since the 150 is being strongly resistive. However, if this has been gapped, the market could rally much higher for an extended period.


For now, the short-term profits in the market could get bigger once it gains momentum but it still requires more patience to trade this pair in the market.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: July 18, 2017


The U.S. dollar surged during the Monday session following a drop in trading. Although the 113 level will become resistive while the 112 region is offering as support of the trend. It is possible that there will be a swaying to and fro of stock traders globally as the earnings data from the U.S. will be released soon.


This would have a strong impact on the pair as the stronger stock market will push the pair higher. A “wait-and-see” sentiment would be the current condition but a breakdown lower than the 112 level would further impel the pair to go down close to the 110 region. On the other hand, if the pair breaks out of the 113 level, this could propel the market towards 114.50 level which was the previous high.


For now, there will be a short-term move up and down which would be beneficial to short traders in the upcoming trading sessions. However, a breakover or below from its previous level that psychological levels are an indication of a gain in momentum which is notable in the current movement.


The market will find its pace and resolve which direction to go and there will be more choppiness more than other things. Short-term traders who rely on Stochastics will benefit in the current condition as it moves in small augmentation.

 

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 21, 2017


The Euro against the U.S. dollar pair rallied despite the ECB President Draghi rhetorics that could not control euro on its lows longer. It cannot be concluded what will happen to euro for it to breakdown for now. The movement of euro raises concerns while the dollar is performing fine for the U.S. whereby the Fed is not doing anything to curb the fall.


Somehow the weakness of the dollar and the strengthening of euro offsets each other that reverses the correction for the EUR/USD pair and pushed it to higher levels more than what the Bulls have expected. In the morning, the pair had a minor correction and declined lower than 1.15 for a shorter period of time before the headlines that have influenced euro to move.


The rate announcement came in, diverted the focus to Draghi's press conference. There was a hint of bearishness but the market situation has been clearly described that the euro economy is going on strong and pushing down the euro won’t do good. The market understood the situation and pushed the EUR/USD pair to climb higher.


In the start of the U.S. session, part of the headlines is the investigation of Trump’s businesses which would add more pressure to the dollar.There is sufficient signal from the dollar to take place that drove the EUR/USD higher towards 1.16. There was a strong selling observed close to the 1.1640 region but if a breakout occurs, the next target will be at 1.18.


For today, there is no major news to be released from the Eurozone or from the U.S. Thus, the market sentiment yesterday will be continued today as long as the pair sustained below the 1.1640 level, there will most likely be a correction.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 25, 2017


The yields across the eurozone weakened while the US dollar make further progress and the 10-year bund yields moved lower at 0.50% as the spreads of the euro area narrowed, following the sluggish results of the PMI readings based on the doubts of M.Draghi to get involve with the QE tapering.


The fresh dip in long yields influenced the EURUSD, however, the remarks from Mersch yesterday verified the postponement and not the cancellation of the QE. Moreover, the ECB will reduce the volume of its asset-buying program which is expected to start earlier in 2018.


The euro-dollar pair rallied to its renewed 23-month high around 1.1694 level and headed lower amid the balance of the trading hours to close the day.


The support for the pair entered the 1.1523 region that is near the 10-day moving average. The resistance reached the 1.1717 mark near the highs of August 2015.


The momentum is still positive as the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) index prints in the black linked with an ascending trajectory and seen pointing to a higher exchange rate.

 

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: July 31, 2017


The Euro against the British pound surged during the Friday session although there some resistance found close to the 0.8960 level. The market had a roll over for the few hours but was limited by the resistance level. There is much support found below that proceeds to market higher.


The next target would the 0.90 level and if the price breaks more and pushes the price towards 0.92 level for long-term. The 0.89 level below persists to be supportive that makes a breakdown far to happen. As shown in the weekly chart, the market sees the 0.89 level to be the support level.


Traders proceed to buy on the lows as it persists in supporting the euro currency. A breakout of both currencies occurred against the U.S. dollar although the market favors the euro more which is reflected in the pair. After some time, there is a lot of volatility in the market directed upward.


Shorting this pair may not be ideal but the once the price breaks higher than the 0.90 level. Buyers will turn more hostile as the psychological level of resistance. However, if the price gaps below the 0.89 level which is extraordinarily bearish that would adjust the short-term trend.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 2, 2017


There is high volatility during the Tuesday session as it reached the 1.3250 level but was reversed later on. It seems that the 1.32 level is being supportive as the trend proceed moving higher.


A break lower would push the market for a support towards 1.3150 level then to 1.31 level. The British pound is going to be sensitive to a lot of noise which is anticipated as amid the negotiations from the European Union and the United Kingdom. Hence, traders should be cautious of the of any abrupt changes in this pair.


The bullishness could persist for the long term. Although, this has been quite extended in the present time. A pullback opens more opportunity to make use of the current value. The market could target for a 1.3450 level above which the peak of the consolidation for the past few months.


However, if the market successfully gaps higher than the 1.3450 level, the next retest would be at 1.35 handle. A breakout would mean large bullish tone but it will not be long before the currency starts to rally once again. There will be high volatility from the start until this period ends.

 

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: August 3, 2017


The main focus for today will be on the sterling pound as there are an expected economic releases and other data from the United Kingdom for this day. We await for the UK inflation hearings along with the rate announcement of the Bank of England to be issued. Also, BOE Governor Mark Carney will conduct his speech, therefore these events would likely cause high volatility for the GBP/USD.


The central bank of England was hawkish during their last meeting which led few markets to think that rate hike is possible sooner or later. There are three BOE members who agreed for a rate increase which triggered confidence for some markets, however, this only accounts a small portion of the market because the majority still believes that the bank will maintain its benchmark.


This is considered a logical approach regarding the continuous financial circles of Britain which could be a turmoil caused by the Brexit procedures. Moreover, a lot of things remain unclear, particularly the results of the referendum process in determining if it will a soft or hard Brexit. Due to many uncertainties, it is absurd for the BOE to make an increase and most likely, they want to see first the effect of the Brexit negotiations prior making such decisions.


The pound-dollar resume to consolidate yesterday and the range near the highs of its range are expected for this very important day. In case that the BOE decided to kept rates steady, the Cable is anticipated for further correction. The 1.3250 level serves as the ceiling at this moment.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 4, 2017


The results of the European yields were mixed as it restricted the uptrend of the euro which signifies that Draghi has successfully kept the rates low. The ECB sees the need for the continuous support because of the less than expected result of the PMI. The European retail sales set in stronger than anticipated but this was countered by high jobless claims.


The EUR/USD was not able to surpass yesterday’s range but was able to increase the support level. Nevertheless, the trend persists to be positive with the support close to the 10-day Moving Average at 1.1747. The resistance level is seen close to the weekly highs at 1.1910.


Overall, the momentum is optimistic with the MACD histogram shown a black indicator with an upward sloping direction that could lead to a higher exchange rate. The RSI positioned higher with the price indicating a positive momentum upward. Currently, the price is set at 77 which is higher than the trigger level 70 to enter the overbought area. Hence, a correction is possible to occur.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 10, 2017


The Euro against the U.S. dollar moved sideways during the Wednesday session and consolidates higher than the 1.17 level. If a breakout occurs higher than the 1.1765 level, the trend goes climb higher.


For long-term, the trend has not successfully declined enough to sustain the level. There have been two impulsive moves headed downward and there is a chance for this to further decline. If a breaks down lower than the 1.1680 level, the price could further go down towards 1.16 level.

There is significant volatility in the market as it abruptly moves sideways and adjusted higher or lower as traders have made an unexpected move. During this time of the year, there is usually low liquidity since most senior is a holiday in big trading desks. Hence, this leaves the market a bit dormant.