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Forex Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Discussion in 'Forex Forum' started by Andrea ForexMart, Oct 4, 2016.

  1. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Member

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    GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 20, 2017


    The British pound persisted to move at a fixed rate but it is the opposite to the euro currency because of the news from German coalition talks. The pound has taken advantage of the low dollar as it rose to 1.32 level. However, it is still to be observed if this move higher.


    The latest news from Germany will most likely affect the British pound as well as other countries of the Eurozone with the ongoing Brexit talk. Thinking about it, the current situation facing Merkel in Germany may be similar with U.K. Prime minister Theresa May as she also fights her own battle. However, it should be considered that any changes to cause uncertainty would most likely affect the Brexit as well. This will not be favorable to Germany or U.K. Nevertheless, both countries would want a good transition and come to a conclusion that would be beneficial for both ends.


    Any uncertainty in Germany would slow down the talks and look forward to an agreement which could complicate more things further and be disadvantageous for the pound in long-term. Aggressive leaders are best suited in the current situation as they are looking for a conclusion. However, some domestic concerns are hampering the process which gets their attention. For short term, the British pound could have some gains because of uncertainty from Germany. However, this could have a negative impact on the U.K. for the long term if this situation is prolonged.


    For today, the British pound seems to be put under pressure as it depreciates against euro during the London session. There is no major news from the U.S. or from the U.K. in other times of the day. Consequently, the consolidation with a bearish tone is anticipated to take place today.
     
  2. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Member

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    GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 21, 2017


    The British currency had slightly whipsawed amid the daytime trading and closed the day with an unchanged position which appeared to be hardly affected by the subsequent events happened in Germany. The United Kingdom is currently dealing with ongoing issues on economy and politics, as the pound could possibly be swayed. Moreover, there are more concerns that the country needs to deal with instead of other matters related to the European region.


    The sterling could possibly get a short-term and limited benefit because of the problems in Germany. It could also soften the German position as well as the EU leaders due to Brexit talks, however, brought temporary relief for the team of PM Theresa May. Nevertheless, whatever kind of benefit they could acquire from this is expected to be short-lived due to its endless process and either side will move towards on their planned position due to domestic concerns from their countries, respectively. Eventually, the market might realize this which could be the reason that after the initial sway, the GBP was able to adjust based on reality and closed the day nearly unchanged.


    The economic data from the United Kingdom remains choppy which would likely trigger concerns for the Bank of England. Meanwhile, the struggle of PM May to deal with her political woes continues which shifted her focus from the Brexit. Considering the events in Germany, the process became dull and complicated which is unacceptable for both sides.


    Ultimately, there are no major releases from the United States but Britain will have its inflation report hearings which should be monitored in order to have a clearer picture for the economy and inflation that could possibly have a large impact towards the timeline of the next rate increase.
     
  3. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Member

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    GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 22, 2017


    The GBP/USD pair remains trading in a tight manner since yesterday, which is similar to the market’s activity. After dealing with high volatility on Monday, the traders were able to prepare themselves for a greater battle beforehand which was actually marked by the ranges that reduced over time. While the market is currently waiting for future events that will take place.

    According to projections, this week would be a busy time for pound traders due to some positive actions and sudden stabilization of the sterling amid the issues on domestic politics and other foreign concerns in the wake of uncertainties in Germany.

    None of these were able to bring an impact against the GBP so far, as the British currency continuously trading in a robust manner for this week. This is expected to be put to test for today due to some major economic releases scheduled from the United States and the United Kingdom.


    In Britain, the autumn forecast statement to be issued during the late London session will essentially provide assumptions regarding the current status of the economy and will also give future events of the economy. This data is annually published which could also possibly provide hints about the considerations of the Bank of England regarding inflation and rate increase in the first half of 2018. Hence, any signs of hawkishness within this report is expected to move the sterling to the 1.34 level.


    In the American session later will be releasing the FOMC minutes that is highly anticipated by the market in order to determine the Fed’s decision towards rate hike next month. There is high chance that the Federal Reserve will allow the raise in December, however, the markets are waiting for some confirmation signal along with the timeline of the rate increase. The pound will experience a very volatile day.
     
  4. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Member

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    EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 23, 2017


    The EUR/USD pair anticipated to have fluctuations from the market but turned as the FOMC minutes is anticipated for the incoming long weekend. There is an active trading activity in the market instead of the anticipated fewer ones. The dollar has lost its leverages and was moving slower over the course of the day. The trend only gained a better traction after the release of the

    FOMC minutes.


    The EUR/USD pair moves higher than the area of 1.1750 in a subtle manner with dimmed the activity that happens prior to the release of the FOMC minutes. There is not much anticipated from the market since the Fed is presumed to maintain its current stance, most especially that the rate hike in December will most likely push through. The euro moved slightly higher at the beginning of the day and proceed to move up during the course of the day.


    The FOMC minutes gave a dovish tone which is not surprising. The rate in December has almost already priced in the market although the market is more focused on the possibility of a further rate hike. There are some members who think that the rate hike has not reached the target mark which could lead to another rate hike but it is also unlikely unless the inflation has improved along with the incoming data. Consequently, the dovishness of the dollar resulted in an increase of the pair towards the area of 1.18 which is seen to hover steadily above this as of the moment.


    Today is the start long weekend in the US on account of Thanksgiving and there will be no economic news anticipated to be released from the U.S. as well as from the Eurozone. Traders should anticipate consolidation in the trend with a bullish tone for the rest of the day.
     
  5. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Member

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    GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 27, 2017


    The British pound is trying to make use of the situation which has been surging in the past few days as the dollar has weakened. This began after the FOMC minutes released a surprising dovish statement that supported the GBP/USD pair and rallies since then. This is yet to be observed if this rally will last.


    Most of the traders are ambivalent of this uptrend since this happened due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. After the holiday, a correction was observed given that traders are going back following a long weekend and investors are gaining some profits where it makes the minutes not a dovish sentiment. This could result in buying of the dollars which would further induce correction in trading.


    Other than that, Brexit is in a difficult situation right now and if anything happens, a massive breakthrough is anticipated in the talks in the few weeks to come. There are some investors who assume that the U.K. would choose to cancel the deal if they will not benefit from it. If this is the case, then Britain would be on a losing end for the economy. Hence, the pound would most likely continue its rally with the ongoing matter on Brexit.


    There is no major news from the U.K. or the U.S anticipated to come out today. Consequently, it is likely to have some consolidation during the first half of the day. There may be some correction for the day when traders go back to the U.S. from their holidays.
     
  6. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Member

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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 28, 2017


    The EUR/USD was reversed following its rally on Monday. It broke higher than the resistance level reached during the Friday session. Profits and losses switched back and forth for the bonds and gilts in the event that there are not much events in the economic calendar which makes the investors cautious on the next step for the U.S. tax plans. All eyes are focusing on Brexit and Political concerns in Germany where it seems that buying on the lows became natural scenarios as the end of the year approaches. The confidence data that came out from Italy remains very low but was rebounded as it became more appealing on Wednesday along with reports including the U.K. credit data and confidence figure from the Eurozone and German preliminary HICP readings for November.


    The euro major pair broke higher than the resistance line but pulled back soon after which led to a much higher high on Monday. The rate is presumed to test the resistance level close to the September high at 1.2092. There is a possibility for a breakdown in the support level at 1.1830 and the 10-day Moving Average at 1.1811. The MACD also shows positive results amid a good momentum as it prints in black with an inclined sloping trajectory which will most likely results in a higher exchange rate. On the other hand, the RSI was reversed following its climb, indicating an improving positive impetus of the pair.
     
  7. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Member

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    USD/CAD Technical Analysis: November 29, 2017


    The American dollar traded sideways during the trading session on Tuesday, however, moved above the 1.28 handle and slightly broke out on top of that area. Moreover, the market seems to pull back from that level due to the struggle at the recent high. In the past 36 hours was slightly parabolic, which could require a pullback to establish an upward momentum. This market is expected to be greatly influenced by crude oil as the oil industry rolls over a little, and caused the Canadian dollar to drop its value. With this, the market is filled with plenty of volatility which makes it complicated to hover on large positions as expected. Building a position favorable on your side is the most feasible way to advance, while the level below 1.2750 would likely the support based on the previous order flow.


    Contrarily, a cut through above the 1.2833 handle will generate a renewed high that could possibly offer the right buying opportunity. The area below 1.27 is projected be very supportive, but a breakdown underneath the 1.2675 region would be very negative which could push the market downwards until the 1.25 handle.


    It is possible for the volatility to remain as an issue, considering that the oil sector was uncertain about its views. The high volatility that surrounds the oil market consistently passes through this market. Generally, the upside seems favorable amid it is characterized by a “risk off” move that is somewhat overdue.
     
  8. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Member

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    NZD/USD Technical Analysis: December 4, 2017


    The kiwi and the greens traded sideways during the onset of the trading session last Friday, however, met decent support around the 0.6815 region to gradually increase. Nevertheless, the announcement made by General Flynn regarding his willingness to work against the White House has pushed the American dollar downwards in general. As expected, this caused wide-ranging impact throughout the world versus the major currencies, as the New Zealand dollar did not make any difference. But the level above 0.69 is resistive which extends through the 0.70 mark eventually.


    Upon breaking the 0.70 area, it seems that buying would become interesting and it remains to be seen before obtaining some advantageous type of exhaustive candle. The level below 0.68 has massive support and breaking down that area after a rollover would offer a long-term opportunity to “sell and hold”.


    As of this writing, the search for an opportunity to sell the market is ongoing, particularly, those that contain a significant amount of pessimism since the public is highly concerned on New Zealand’s Labour party expenses. Meanwhile, fixing and signing of the tax bill by the US Congress could help the American dollar. The previous rally amid the fluid-based situation would probably end as an overreaction. Moving out from the market and allowing the market to cool off could be the most preferred way to trade alternatively.
     
  9. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Member

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    EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 6, 2017


    The euro major pair declined in the past 24 hours but with unknown reason. The euro has a weak overall trend in the market and there is lesser strength in the dollar. The movement has been movings steadily which was sufficient for the pair to decline lower than yesterday’s trading. It reached the level as low as 1.18 prior to rally as it trades higher than the 1.1820 at the moment.


    The market seems to be waiting on the sidelines as traders are observing the movement, particularly of the dollar. The rate hike will happen soon that causes last-minute uncertainty whether this will be pushed through this month. Also, concerns regarding the tax reform bill are also being considered if this will passed by the Senate which could take some time and traders have to wait for the next movement.


    Being the last month of the year, traders should be patient whether this will further develop amid holidays. This adds more pressure to traders to be careful in betting large positions and better to be patient before deciding which way to go. As a result, the dollar is now moving steadily as the euro continues to decline at a slower pace since many currency pairs are attempting to maintain within the borders of the trading range that has been known in the past few months.


    There is no major news from the eurozone except for the ADP employment report from the U.S. This is prior to the release of the NFP for the week. Pressure will still be present in trading this pair as the market waits for the development of the news.
     

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