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Forex Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Discussion in 'Forex Forum' started by Andrea ForexMart, Oct 4, 2016.

  1. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Member

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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: May 24, 2018


    The euro had a significant decline during the Wednesday session and broke the area below 1.17. It seems that the market will proceed to lower, which could lead to the downfall of the euro. There are other problems with the European Union, as well as, Italian concerns.


    The euro has broken lower as mentioned earlier and it seems that it goes down much lower. The major support level below would be the 1.15 level and will likely remain to be the goal. Short-term rallies could offer opportunities in selling this market against the greenback. The level of 1.1825 is slightly a ceiling although, it seems difficult to see a situation where there is a continuous short-term rally and lead to exhaustion later on.


    If the pair breaks below the area of 1.15, the market could take out quite a bit of a value in there. I suggest to be careful about relying on the rally with a lot of negativity from the European Union as a whole. As the interest rates in the United States increases, it seems that greenback will gain more attention and have an effect on the forex market. There is a tendency for the market to look for the bottom as the euro declines importantly that could easily deceive new traders. The downtrend may be significant but it seems difficult to be sustained in longer-term and at least try to reach the level of 1.15.



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  2. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Member

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    GBP/USD Technical Analysis: May 28, 2018


    The British pound against the U.S. dollar is moving higher towards the area of 1.3350 in a calm manner during the Monday session. Hence, we can expect a muted Monday session since the Memorial Day and the U.K. has also extended their Spring Bank holiday. Since most major pairs are not active at the beginning of the week, there is very low volatility for the week and less economic calendar for most of the week. The first data to be released will be on Wednesday, followed by Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. Investors will monitor carefully for any signs that could induce volatility for the week.


    The British major pair is trading close to the cyclical lows of 1.3305 at the last week of May after scheduled data for the week failed to support against the greenback. The macroeconomic of U.K. is influenced by two significant headlines including sluggish economic growth and decelerating inflation. The inflation target of 2 percent by the central bank is moving at a faster rate in line with the bank rate. This is due to the inflation-adjusted real wage amid the stale growth in the first quarter of the year. Both actions support the argument of the Bank of England following the bank rate with the forecast of Bank rate hike by 0.25% in February next year referring to the efficiency of money market rates.


    Sluggish inflation of the Sterling is not so good as it gives them more time for the BoE before acting on the interest rates. The Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, and the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) external member, Gertjan Vlieghe, have the same sentiment when it comes to the monetary policy where they deem the interest rates to go up gradually in the next few years. The bearish trend resumed as exhibited on the daily chart after a period of consolidation at the beginning of the month, but has not yet found a bottom following the previous decline where the indicators showed moderate easing. We should anticipate the support level at 1.3280 / 1.3245 and resistance level at 1.3365 / 1.3400.



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  3. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Member

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    USD/JPY Technical Analysis: June 5, 2018


    Yesterday, the U.S. dollar swayed sideways and reached the level of 109.50. The next target will probably be the 110 handle given a large whole number. It has shown some amount of resistance recently.


    The greenback moved sideways against the Japanese yen during the Monday session, which was highly bullish in the past few days. As expected, the pair formed a hammer pattern on the weekly chart and the pair is likely to rise higher when it breaks the level above. It would probably reach the level of 110 and until it does, I would be cautious before placing a lot of money on it. If the pair declines from here, it would not be easy to short this pair since there is a lot of support found below.


    The market will probably be sensitive in regards to trading the pair, given the rising concern on the trade war with the United States. If the market becomes anxious on the trade war, this is likely to affect the market with the greenback have a hard time in general. I think short-term pullbacks would offer a lot of opportunities, which can be seen in the present time. Thus, I would think twice before placing trades at least until a successful breakout on the said level of 110. We should bear in mind that the pair movements will be relative to the risk appetite that is why we should give attention to the stock market especially the S&P 500. Thus, it won’t be easy to work on this pair. If it rallies on the market, then this pair will probably rise higher as well.
     
  4. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Member

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    GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 6, 2018


    The British pound is being traded above the 1.3400 level prior to the upcoming London market session driven by better risk sentiment. The currency has reached new highs this month after reaching as low as 1.3204 on 29th of May. It reached the levels higher than 1.3400. The dollar has further weakened amid better market sentiment which has a big impact on the Sterling Pound. The news on amenability to discuss the possibility of tapering the QE by the central bank could support the currency, yet this still remains on the hopeful list. Nonetheless, traders will probably opt to buy across the Eurozone that could push the pound higher as a consequence. There is a positive action in the previous two trading session in major macro data releases and the U.S. greenback could be on advantage today if the pound falls behind or the macro data from the U.K. turns out bearish.


    Traders are looking out for Brexit related news, yet, Prime Minister may delays the publication of the government’s plan until the leader’s summit this month. Let along the upcoming GBP data on London is insufficient to induce momentum, except for a correction to the lower boundary of the channel.


    There are speeches expected from the BOE Monetary Policy Committee member Silvana Tenreyro at 10:40 GMT and MPC member Ian McCafferty speaking at 16:00 GMT. Meanwhile, traders will center their attention to the US Trade Balance figures alongside Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs for the first quarter to be released at 12.30 GMT. On a technical note, the pair will rise higher and a major breakout is yet to happen. Readings for short-term will give more gains in the future. We can expect the resistance level to be at 1.3420 / 1.3460 and support level at 1.3370 / 1.3335.



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  5. Deborin

    Deborin New Member

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    Interest rates in the United States are growing and it is possible that the dollar will receive more attention and will affect the forex market. There is a tendency that the market will look for a new site.
     
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  6. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Member

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    Interesting. Thank you for sharing your thoughts Deborin. Kindly follow this thread for more fresh analytics daily. Have a nice trading day ahead!
     
  7. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Member

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    GBP/USD Technical Analysis: June 7, 2018


    Yesterday, the British pound rose significantly after breaking the level of 1.34. It seems that there are signs of continuing the current trend. There is a massive support found at 1.33, at least in the short-term, which has been an important level more than once.


    The British currency shows signs of strength a bit of a relief given the uptrend. The initial target would be above the level of 1.35 but if it can break higher then there is a chance for the price to reach 1.3650. Short-term pullbacks would offer a lot buying opportunities below and it seems that the market is trying to turn around for short-term. There are speculation of dollar shortage because of global liquidity that makes it unstable to be considered for long-term. Yet for short-term, it seems that buyers are leading the trend.


    If it successfully turns around then we could break the level below 1.33 to test the level of 1.3250 and potentially reach 1.30. Choppiness would still be a problem that makes it ideal to trade in small positions. Then, once the market adjusted to how we want it to be, we can increase our trades. If the price break above 1.3650, this would be highly bullish and allows the price to further move. In the given rate, I am looking for a “buy-and-hold” strategy. For now, we can expect volatility at the very least in the next few days. The market will probably continue to give emphasis on short-term trades.



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  8. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Member

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    GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 11, 2018


    The pound/dollar pair continued to trade around the 1.3430 region on the back of the failure to create bullish momentum in the previous week, as it was beaten by the major handle and the markets are waiting for further progress in Brexit this week. Due to the scheduled FOMC rate hike in the upcoming week, the interest rate differential of the GBP and the USD is predicted to move in different directions which could hold the Pound on its starting position and push the British currency into the recent lows. Following the recently rejected Irish border solution, market participants await for further news within this week while the United Kingdom continue to negotiate in looking for the middle ground for the hard-line Brexiteers and the EU leadership in Brussels. Nevertheless, Prime Minister Theresa May was caught in between and trying to find fair solutions for both sides.


    The upcoming week is projected to be really busy for the Sterling pound since 4 out of 5 trading session this week brought extreme impact to the UK calendar that could support a high level of volatility for market players. Today has plenty of data for Britain which will be all published at 08:30 GMT, however, the focus will be on the Manufacturing Industrial Production data which is expected to remain unchanged at 2.9%. The US session today appears to be in smooth sailing according to the economic calendar, but traders might deal with the G7 summit blowout, wherein US President Donald Trump leave the summit earlier and depart the US’ support of the G7 communiqué, following a Tweet from POTUS aboard Air Force One heads to Singapore for the Trump-Kim summit.


    At the same time, the figures for Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Apr), Claimant Count Change (May), Core CPI & PPI input and Core retail sales in the next three consecutive trading sessions. Moreover, the daily chart indicates that the GBP/USD currency pair corrected higher from the lows of 1.3205 alongside the diverging technical oscillators. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) had an unexpected move towards the oversold area and bounced back to the GBP, which descends to the levels of the beginning of last week. The Slow Stochastic resumed moving in an upward trajectory. The daily chart of the 50-day and 100-day moving average formed a death star crossover, this means that there is an initial downside potential of the Cable pair to break the 1.3300 region prior attacking the area of 1.3200. The upside of the pair is necessary to break back above the 1.3380 to the 1.3450 target, which is the last week’s high.


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  9. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Member

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    GBP/USD Technical Analysis: June 18, 2018


    The British pound was able to dodge the immediate impact of the rise of the dollar while the euro dropped by two significant points that dominate the market in the previous week. The dollar gained from the rate hike which started by the Fed and the positive outlook of the Fed in the economy.


    The hawkish sentiments gave t chance to the dollar to rise and the dollar bulls to plan ahead with two more rate hikes to look forward to. The Fed gives similar signals which still yet to be seen if they would continue the process and they would implement this in a specific period of time later on. We have witnessed that the rate hike would have minimal impact on the market, especially on the pound.


    It seems that everything is going smoothly in the UK as the Brexit negotiation starts to advance and there are no signs of risks yet. Hence, the pound maintained its position in the support area despite the strengthening of the dollar and activities in the eurozone. The European Central Bank decided to extend the easing program which in turn, weakened the euro. Although, these things did not really affect the pound as it continues to trade close to the area of 1.32.


    There are some strong purchasing in this area, as well as at the level of 1.30. Once this is achieved, the lead will be in the hands of the bulls which is likely to be maintained in short term. It seems that there is also no major event to affect the movements and we can say that the price is in consolidation and persists to be within the range for the day.


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  10. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Member

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    USD/JPY Technical Analysis: June 21, 2018


    The USD/JPY pair closed higher inside day during the Wednesday session, reflecting uncertainty and expected volatility with a tendency to move up.


    The Forex pair also underwent a transition period after the momentum changed to a downturn at the beginning of the week. However, even if the momentum changed, the main uptrend remains solid.


    On the other side, there was a short-rally to cover after sellers moved below after a sharp sell-off on Tuesday.


    The Japanese yen major pair moved higher on early Thursday with a strong compulsion in purchases from the Wednesday and Thursday highs. Hence, this northward sentiment induces the market to move their positions in the attempt to test the psychological level of 110.859 and the main top at 110.905.


    Higher demand for risky assets drove the price action of the pair and losing the Japanese Yen as a safe-haven. On a deeper perspective, the tension on trade war between the U.S. and China is the main impetus of the trend.


    The pair is being traded 110.559 and increased by +0.19% or 0.215 at 2.04GMT. It is likely to uphold its positions taking into account rising of stocks and unsettled trade war between the two big nations continues to advance peacefully.


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  11. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Member

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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: June 26, 2018


    The euro has slightly rebounded during the Monday session. However, breaking higher than the resistance level gives a strong indication. If the quotation rises much higher and even more if it breaks above the level of 1.17, the market will proceed to move towards 1.18. Short-term pullbacks could open opportunities that we should remember that as well.


    There is a massive support found below, around the level of 1.1625 which could continue to attract buyers at the current price value. Considering also that there is also a turnaround in the overall momentum. The market has probably overreacted to the ECB announcement and correction is likely to be behind schedule. Other than that, we should keep in mind that the greenback is having a difficulty because of the potential escalating trade war, which in turn, favors the euro considering that it opposes the dollar.


    If the price breaks above the level of 1.18, the market will probably continue towards 1.20 level. Nonetheless, I anticipated a lot of noise in the pair which is already expected. Hence, I would seek for longer-term trades at the moment and consider “buying the dips” in short-term basis to be the ideal strategy.


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  12. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Member

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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 2, 2018


    The euro major pair began the day at a muted note to slower decline across the Asian session. Yet the downtrend seems to be above the 1.16 as it lacks headlines to drive the price change in the background of political conflicts in Germany. There is an issue on the disagreement between Horst Seehofer and German Chancellor Angela Merkel concerning migration related deal secured in the EU summit. Although the government is steadfast on Horst Seehofer’s offer to resign from office, CSU hardliners are deemed to have attempted to talk with the assertive interior minister to stay.


    Traders wait for the official result of a press conference scheduled later this day to find out if both parties will proceed and in case the Horst Seehofer resigns, the CSU would offer a replacement to the support the coalition government. Investors will also wait for Eurozone Manufacturing PMI & Unemployment rate data, at the same time, the ISM Manufacturing employment and ISM Manufacturing PMI data from the U.S. are expected to be published. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD is anticipated to trade within the range between 1.16 and 1.17 during the European session as traders wait for the news on updates from the official press conference and the end result to support Merkel and coalition government that could induce the euro major pair to go back to the level of 1.18. The resistance of the pair would be at 1.1690 / 1.1720 and the support will be on the area of 1.1620 / 1.1600.


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  13. Obasi FXMart

    Obasi FXMart Member

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    GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: July 25, 2018

    The sterling pound moved sideways amid trading session yesterday, with an exception for a slight reversal and bullish pressure. As of this writing, the ¥146 level above was unable to break. While the previous ascending trend line was broken through which stimulate a little bit of resistance. In case of a slice above the ¥147 region will prove the strength of the recovery. On the contrary, we can expect for a lot of sideways action in the near term.

    There are forecasts that the area under the ¥145 will be supportive which would likely require some pressure to cut through that region. Generally, the market will contain plenty of noise with a slightly downward proclivity as to the concerns about trade battles and the like.

    It should be noted that the GBP/JPY currency pair is very sensitive to global risk appetite alongside the added issue of political chaos in Great Britain, which slightly puts off this market downwards. The presence of some reversal is very difficult to deal with but if we reach higher than the ¥147 level, then new profits will pour in the trading place and would accelerate further. While a break down underneath the ¥145 level would probably open a way through the ¥142.50 region.
     
  14. Obasi FXMart

    Obasi FXMart Member

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    GBP/USD Technical Analysis: July 26, 2018


    The British currency drove higher amid trading course yesterday and attempt to grind above the 1.32 level. Generally, we can expect for the resumption of short-term pullbacks which may act as buying opportunities with a slower motion. In this case, shorting this market is not recommended due to the recent formation of some “basing pattern”. Also, there is a possibility of a move through the 1.32 region or 1.3250 eventually.

    Traders should take note about the headlines which could possibly trigger issues with the sterling pound aside from the conflict between the Conservative Party and Theresa May, which argues for the common ground of the Brexit. Forecasts show that the market will begin searching for the level below 1.30 as the “absolute floor” of the GBP, hence, longer-term traders will buy the dips based on its value.

    For some time, the pound became quite oversold and the “buy-and-hold” traders in the longer-term will return to the market to acquire benefits from lower prices. Ultimately, the dips can be seen turning around with impulsive trends and the top of 1.33 handle would likely be broken but may require a series of attempt to overcome that level.
     
  15. Obasi FXMart

    Obasi FXMart Member

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    GBP/USD Technical Analysis: July 27, 2018


    The British currency had initially rallied yesterday but the 1.32 region appears to be slightly expensive. Moreover, the level around 1.3150 would likely have a lot of support underneath. It may take some time prior the buyers to return and push this market higher. Upon clearing the 1.32 zone, it is possible to trail through the 1.3250 area. This market appears to be bullish in general, however, the political issues with Great Britain may cause problems for the sterling pound. In the longer-term, there will be some resolution to the political theater which could help to resume an upward trend.

    According to forecasts, the level below 1.30 is massively supportive since the figure is characterized as large, round, and psychologically significant. As expected, the weekly charts showed that it rebounded, indicating a higher possibility of buying pressure in that region. That area could be the “floor” of this market and considered as the most appropriate zone to begin purchases if there is any intention to move back there.
     
  16. Obasi FXMart

    Obasi FXMart Member

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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 31, 2018

    The single European currency paired with the US dollar and reach higher than the 1.17 region. But, we can see plenty of supply above that level which makes it interesting to break on top of the 1.1730 handle. With that, it indicates a move through the area of 1.1750 but it is hard to break higher until the release of news from the central banks as well as employment figures this week. It is believed that the market will extend to the upside while players search for some short-term selling opportunity in the past.

    Aside from that, the market was in a symmetrical triangle and the jobs figure could possibly break out that triangle and we expect a longer-term trade play on Friday. Apparently, the entire scenario might change because of geopolitical issue or some kind of news, however, the market would likely continue to be noisy in the near term while it will be difficult to stay in the longer-term condition. A break above the 1.1750 zone will push the market on top of the 1.1850 region, which is the highest point of the overall consolidation in the longer term.
     
  17. Obasi FXMart

    Obasi FXMart Member

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    GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 1, 2018


    The sterling pound rallied throughout the day on Tuesday until the American hours, because the British currency takes advantage of the rally ahead which is expected to be an increase in the rate. Forecasts show that the market will resume to be very noisy or continue the “buy the rumor, sell the news.” The level 1.32 would likely be resistive as well as the area of 1.33.

    Meanwhile, short-term pullbacks have high chance to happen and in case that the Bank of England will not lift its rates tomorrow, then we can expect for a decline. Generally, the market establishes some kind of “floor” around the 1.30 zone but when the BOE will do something negligent, then a lot of support can be seen.

    The buyers of dips anticipate moving over the 1.35 mark in the longer-term. Nevertheless, we should clarify such scenario with the Brexit prior making that move. Indecision might prevail over this market, so traders should keep their trading positions approximately small.

    A break down underneath the 1.30 zone will test the 1.29 region consequently, hence, a break down to the downside will be extremely negative. The slightly positive bias range bound system is believed to be the best way to deal with this market.
     
  18. Obasi FXMart

    Obasi FXMart Member

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    GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 2, 2018

    The British currency had a pullback earlier amid trading course yesterday, however, the level below 1.31 seems to be supportive and rebounded within 30 pips through the American session. According to forecast, the 1.31 region will continue to have support with the involvement of the Bank of England, since such large moves are impossible with this market. Moreover, the short-term pullbacks would likely open doors for buying opportunities, but the next scenario will be determined by the statement from London. Interest rate hike is further anticipated, making the statement more attractive to the traders’ attention.

    When the UK’s central bank lifted its rates in the future, the British pound will gain optimism but it seems to be some kind of “one and done” scenario and may result to some selloff. The 1.32 region above will be the resistance, but a cut through on top of that level would push a move higher.

    While a gap lower than the 1.31 mark would search for a significant support around 1.30 zone. An area that is considered to be supportive in the longer term and could offer a lot of opportunities to acquire major value.
     
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  19. Obasi FXMart

    Obasi FXMart Member

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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 3, 2018


    At the beginning of Tuesday session, the euro dropped sharply with the support level found at 1.16, which is the bottom of the symmetrical triangle as a large round psychological number. Hereinafter, it won’t be long before the market attempts to break out of the symmetrical triangle since the jobs data will reach it. If the pair breaks the level of 1.16, the market could slide down towards 1.15 where there is an important support. Moving around, the pair breaks higher than 1.1750 that offers resistance and breakthrough on this level would push the price towards 1.1850.

    It is not unexpected that the pair will move in the middle of the symmetrical triangle after the trading session with the release of jobs data. There is a lot of noise in the market amid the subdued month of August that slowed things down. It seems that there is a massive support at 1.15 and it will be a significant event for a break lower. It is likely for the price to consolidate in the next few weeks. In this case, a breakout on the symmetrical triangle will dismiss it.
     
  20. Obasi FXMart

    Obasi FXMart Member

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    USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: August 6, 2018


    The USD/JPY currency pair trades slightly lower on Monday morning, however, the pair was able to keep its position above the Friday’s low. The market lost its entire gains after accelerating to 112.152 level and followed by the Bank of Japan’s decision on monetary policy last week.

    While both monetary policy decisions of the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan neutralized each other last week and much of the price activity favored safe haven purchases linked with the increasing trade battle between China and the United States.

    Another factor that contributed to the weakening of the USDJPY was the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report that came mixed on Friday. The US labor growth further declined than predicted in July, but the weak jobless rate indicates that the job market conditions tighten. The traders of the dollar/yen pair continue to observe the U.S. Treasury yields as it dropped on Friday after the labor report. Also, the insufficient economic data on Monday allowed the USDJPY investors to focus on the U.S. Treasury yields and such developments with the trading relationships of the US and China.

    Moreover, the expected direction of the USD/JPY for today can be identified by the trader's respond towards the 50% to 61.8% retracement zone at 111.459 to 111.295 in the near term. A sustained move at 111.459 would likely create the required impetus for an upside bias, while a sustained trend below 111.295 indicates the existence of sellers.
     

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