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Forex Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Discussion in 'Forex Forum' started by Andrea ForexMart, Oct 4, 2016.

  1. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Member

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    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 16, 2019

    The euro major pair continues to be subdued during the Thursday session as it stays close to 1.1210 despite the Eurogroup meeting on the eve. It shows that the pair seems to have no direction prior to the ECB official speech.

    The pair shows a good rally from 1.1183 to 1.1225 previously. The uptrend occurred when Trump announced the possibility of a delay the import tariffs on autos for six months. This supports the European automobile industry and raises the pair.

    The reports imply that the US president is hesitant to further move on trade disputes. Trump already had a hard time with the US-China trade war and prefers to avoid any simultaneous trade obstacles with other partners. Hence, a strong trade dispute between the EU and the US seems to cool off at least on the short-term.

    Although, the EUR/USD pair cannot have large movement despite increasing Italy-German bond yields. Yesterday, yields rose by 140 bp, which was the highest figure since December. The rise in bond yields happened in the background of Italian Deputy PM rhetorics, saying that the peak should be adjusted to 140% of GDP.

    Meanwhile, the retail sales figures cause the dropped of the dollar gains yesterday and the US dollar index trades close to 97.5.

    Following data are to be released today in the US: Housing in April (MoM), Building Permits, Initial Jobless Claims from period May 10 and Continuing Jobless Claims from May 3.

    In the technical perspective, the price shows to be trading below the 50- and 100-SMA, indicating a bearish trend for the day. The top resistance remains at 1.1263 and the support close to 1.1178. Of the pair rises in the future, the next target resistance will likely be around 1.1323. The pair being above the Bollinger band may mean an increase and could develop into a bullish trend from the traders. The RSI was found close to the 55th figure, which confirms active purchases of the pair.
     
  2. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Member

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    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 17, 2019

    In the beginning of today’s trading session, the euro major pair has shown less or no volatility. The euro major pair moves close to 1.1170/80 levels but there is no certain direction and moves around the weekly low levels.

    The positive associated with the delay in US car import tariffs had a transient effect on the pair. Meanwhile, the weak fundamental report pushed the pair to low levels.

    The future for the greenback looks optimistic while the index was able to recover the losses during the week. Various data on US Housing data, Unemployment figures, and Manufacturing Survey reports pushed the pair to reach high levels of 97.88. On the other hand, the Eurozone April CPI figures and US May Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index line may affect the future movements of the pair.

    The CPI data from the eurozone is anticipated to be released with a forecast of a decrease by 0.3% on MoM. On the other hand, the data on Consumer Sentiments Index in May, which is presumed to rise close to 97.5%. There will also be speeches from Fed officials today.

    On the 4-hour chart, the price will likely be lower than 50-, 100- and 200-SMA and moves in a bearish tone. Yet, the 50-SMA being above the 100-SMA may mean a chance for a bullish sentiment. The RSI was found around 40th figure that gives moderate purchases of the pair.
     
  3. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Member

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    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 20, 2019

    In today’s trading session, the euro major pair started the day close to 1.1161, hovering close the Friday low of 1.1153.

    After the release of the eurozone’s April CPI data, the pair remained quiet and met market expectations. The monthly construction data came out higher than with 6.3% figure compared to the estimate of 1.8%. However, the data optimistic figure of the US Michigan Index limited that chances for the rally of the euro major pair.

    The tension of over Italy regarding the EU Fiscal rules has managed the worries of investors amid the rising debt levels of the Italian deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini. He announced the possibility of adjusting higher the debt ceiling to 140% of the GDP, justified that the fiscal policies should adjust over time. There are still other headlines that show less-impact to the movement of the pair.

    Today, there will be an important speech from Fed chief Powell. He is expected to give some insights on the economic interests rates in the global trend, which may have an effect on the US Dollar index.

    On the 1-hour chart, the price was seen to have stayed lower than the SMA and below both the 100- and 200-SMA, indicating a short-term bullish momentum. The central line of the Bollinger band stayed higher than the pair that could mean a bearish tone.

    As for the lower boundary of the Bollinger bands, it was found close to the 1.1151 as the pair drop to the lower area of the Bollinger bands that could also give a bearish sentiment from traders. The RSI moves around 32nd figure with a notion of heavy selling.
     
  4. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Member

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    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 21, 2019

    The euro major pair had a better trading than yesterday, which means that there is a chance for a recovery of the pair. Despite the rally of the US dollar, the EUR/USD pair dropped by 0.19%. There was some fresh bids on the USD index prior to the positive data from the US.

    The US-Sino trade talks influenced the overall tone of the dollar traders to decrease. Just recently, some companies such as Huawei, Chinese Giant Telecommunication Equipment Company were blacklisted in the US, which then affected the Chinese business. After the news, Huawei clients had retreated, as well as, another chipset manufacturer from Europe. Meanwhile, updates for Android was suspended by Google.

    Investors are concerned with the backlash of China against the action of the US. At the same time, this adds pressure over dollar with the continuous uncertainty from trade talks. The EUR/USD pair gained advantage on the weakened dollar.

    For today, there is no major events from Europe today except for the Consumer Confidence Index for the month of May from the European Commission. The market perceives the pair to remain a bit bullish at the present condition.

    The dollar has already increased prior to the Housing data from the US with a rising forecast. Yet, the increase in the USD index gives a downward pressure to the pair.

    The pair has established a downward movement towards the lower boundary of the Bollinger bands. The RSI showed a trend similar to the pair with the range between 35 and 40 levels. It may mean a low momentum and weak interest from investors. At the same time, it seems that there is a low volatility to the pair given the shorter gap between bands of the pair. Resistance levels are expected around 1.1175, 1.1185, and 1.1225 and support close to 1.1136 and 1.1111 levels.
     
  5. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Member

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    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 22, 2019

    In the beginning, the euro major pair shows a high chance of recovery. Although the pair attempted for a breakout, it failed to surpass the resistance level of 1.1164. Moving forward, the pair stayed close to the level of 1.1155, showing an opposite downward curve.

    On the eve, the pair rose by 0.13% soon after the release of May’s agreement. Nonetheless, the pair could not settle gains and return to the lower level.

    With the continued uncertainty for the US-Sino trade war that seems to be moving wrongly. As well, as the damages incurred with the issue with Huawei. This adds pressure to the whole global economy.

    Any unexpected result may bring in volatility to the pair while the market presently had high hopes to Brexit, which then plunge the pair downward.

    The Fed chief has a scheduled speech for today to discuss the matter of interest rates and other economic concerns. Previously, Draghi said that there is a possibility to keep the interest rates unchanged. The FOMC minutes of the meeting is the focus for today, which will likely have a high impact on the US dollar index.

    The trend of the EUR/USD pair seems to be having a bearish tone with the price below the baseline of the Ichimoku clouds on the trend. The further it goes down, the more that it will likely sell. The RSI showed the pair’s movement staying between 50th and 40th figure. It signifies moderate buying and slight interest of investors. The price of the pair was initially at 1.1160 and then declined to 1.1153. In case of a further decline, the pair may find support at 1.1142 and oppositely, it will likely go up until the resistance of 1.1188.
     
  6. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Member

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    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 23, 2019

    The euro major pair declined on Thursday morning from 1.1155, aiming for a breakdown at the support level of 1.1149. Today, there will be the EU Parliamentary Elections which may greatly affect the pair and further be pressured.

    On the other hand, the Brexit is presumed to take place prior to the elections. Nonetheless, PM Theresa May could not finish the Brexit matter. France was allocated with a spot to the Union but the UK is still participating and everything has to have their own places.

    On the other hand, the US dollar surpasses the level of 98.12 which as more pressure to the EUR/USD pair with the USD index. The FOMC minutes of the meeting was released last night and it was unexpected for them to keep the rates the same. At the same time, the minutes have mentioned that the current economic situation is less likely to have a big impact on the currencies.

    For the Fundamental reports, data on Manufacturing PMI for Germany and the Eurozone are scheduled to be released today. These have to be monitored as it may greatly affect the pair. Moreover, German GDP, Services & the Composite PMI, German Expectations from IFO, the Business Climate, and the Current Assessment are expected as well.

    On the US side, reports on Continuing and Initial Jobless claims figures, Markit PMI for the Services, Manufacturing and the Composite of both sectors are anticipated by everyone. Aside from that, we have the New Home Sales and the Sales Change report to monitor as well.

    Traders should be mindful of the initial buying on the start of the European trading session as the candle closes on the hourly chart. The resistance above 1.1150 gives a stronger resistance, which was tested for support several times in the previous week. In case that the pair resumed a breakout, sellers may see mix strategies close to the resistance around 1.1170. There seems to be a horizontal level that limits aside from the upper line from the descending channel which restricts the price movement in mid-May. Overall, seeing a marginal breakdown close to the early May low at 1.1135 had encountered some puny stops from weak traders. It could further go down to 1.1109 in case of a continuous descent. Meanwhile, bears’ attention is on the support of 1.1135 towards 1.0975 to 1.10.
     
  7. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Member

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    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 24, 2019

    The euro meets pressure again during the Thursday session with the looming from the markets again. Presently, we cannot be certain on what pushed this trend to occur but we can just base it on the common reasons. One of which is a trade war between the US and China. Directly stating the situation, it seems there is more from what is happening. Hence, the present market reflects the standing of the US dollar.

    If we look at the price, significant support is found at 1.11, which will likely be tested during the trading session. If the price breaks lower than the daily close, it will pave its way towards the level of 1.10. However, this pair will not exactly be an easy run. Although, I’d say that it won’t be long before the buyers return in the market. Furthermore, we should also focus our attention on how the daily candle forms. If it bounces from here, the next probable target level will be 1.1150. Needless to say, this pair isn’t exactly best to trade at the moment. It is quite tight, which is usual but that makes it the latter option in gaining profit. Scalpers are primarily the ones who will gain an advantage of this and the level of 1.11 is a good level to start off as it may offer a slight jump.
     

  8. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Member

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    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 27, 2019

    The euro major pair moves close to 1.1211 on Monday morning. It looks like the pair resumes the upward trend since Friday. With ongoing European parliamentary elections and declining US dollar index, the pair was able to recover. The price opened close to 1.1203 and reach a new high at 1.1214.

    Results for the election were released on Sunday, showing the Brexit gained the majority of the votes. The head of the winning party said that they consider handling Brexit in a new parliament. Although, there is a chance for a no-deal Brexit.

    The US dollar pairs stronger against six major currency pairs at 95.78 during the Asian session. The US-China trade tension continues to influence the US dollar as it drops lower. It attempted to reach a fresh new high in the morning after a slight decline for the greenback today.

    Today, the US will celebrate the ‘Memorial day’, hence, the US market will be closed today while there are no anticipated events from the eurozone. Meanwhile, traders will keep on monitoring the results of post-election and for any significant news regarding the US-China trade deal.

    The technical level shows the reversal in the middle trading of morning hours. The indicator lines appeared close to the upper Bollinger bands moved downwards instead. It also crossed the middle line of the Bollinger bands or around the EMA close to 1.1204, which put an end to the small rally on May 23. After the pair have risen to 60 levels in the past trading session, the RSI is moving close to 50 levels. Yet, the trend stays active and trades above the important SMA. Hence, the 50-SMA crossed the 200-SMA and collide with the pair. We can expect a bearish tone in the short-term if it reaches above the 50-SMA.
     
  9. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Member

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    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 29, 2019

    There is a high probability for the EUR/USD pair to trade range-bound for this week but will less likely reach a new yearly low.

    The reason behind is that there is a minor report expected on the economic calendar this week. The ECB will have its meeting next week and the recent data on employment figure is anticipated to be released as well. These two events will kickstart the momentum needed to maintain descent.

    Data released didn’t have a big impact on the trading rates despite the less-than-expectations result on preliminary CPI. On the other hand, the quarterly GDP has increased. The consumer spending grew at a faster pace this April than expected.

    The pair seems to have maintained the closing the candle at 1.11350 on the 4-hour chart, which sets a rally to the peak in the early part of the month.

    The recent support is important and uncertain while the pair should not proceed lower in order for it to reach higher levels.

    Meanwhile, on the hourly chart, there is an intersection with the support level of 1.1150 to the lower part of the channel.

    Although the pair grew higher at the beginning of the North American session, the upper resistance at 1.1170 is less likely important. The pair has already offered twice as resistance since its breakthrough. There is also some confluence with the 200-MA close to it and the chance for a higher level is not too far.

    Thus, there is a possibility for the price to bounce higher although, we can expect the trend for short-term to decline. Sellers can push for a rally around 1.1170. However, in the case of decline lower than the support level, it is better to be careful in lowering the price without enough momentum.
     
  10. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Member

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    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 30, 2019

    The euro major pair was able to break through to different support levels without difficulty, which gives a strong sign of weakness. At the same time, the pair was able to pull back whenever it reached a fresh lows of the year, as shown on the daily chart.

    Forecast on the early weeks are the levels of 1.1170, 1.1150, and 1.1135, which induced a bounce of the pair for this week. Although the rallies for recovery from the said levels were not that high. The pair stayed at the level of 1.1135 the most and has broken below it during the North American trading on Wednesday.

    Focused on the release of the GDP data for this week, it did not really have much of an impact to the market. Moreover, there are also reports on pending home sales, unemployment claims and the speech from FOMC member Clarida.

    There is no clear breakdown lower than 1.1135 on the 4-hour chart. A sustained break would then aim for last week’s low, which is a major support in May around 1.1109. Furthermore, there is also liquidity below the area of 1.1097 and 1.1100.

    It will take a break above 1.1150 to trigger a broader recovery and to entice some of the bears this week to cover their positions. If such an event materializes, strong resistance is found at 1.1170. In addition to the horizontal level, both the 100 and 200 moving averages are close to each other.
     
  11. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Member

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    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 31, 2019

    The euro positions higher than the US dollar on Friday with a threat of recession and Fed rate cut at the later months of the year. In case of a drop down in the US Treasury yields, this will give a strong signal for a reduction in Fed interest rates. As of the moment, the Fed has been calm as their action is relative to the data. They are aware that trade disputes and tariffs have a negative influence on the economy. Assuringly, they would only act once when they know the outcome of inflation, as well as in the labor market.

    On Thursday, a report from the Commerce Department showed that U.S. inflation was much weaker than initially thought in the first quarter amid a sharp slowdown in domestic demand. On Friday, traders will get the opportunity to react to the April Core PCE Index. The report is expected to come in at 0.2%. On Friday, data on Core PCE index is scheduled to be released with a forecast of 0.2%.

    In inflation, the Fed target of 2% was reached by traders in March 2018 for the first time since April 2012. The most recent forecast will be 1.5% y-o-y. This figure will support the Fed for more rate cuts, which in turn will give a bullish sentiment for the euro.

    Looking at the numbers, the euro major pair could rise higher if buyers can break the 1.1215 mark. Overall, the trend shown a downward movement, although the momentum is rising since the price reversal as it closes at the bottom of 1.1107.

    A trade beyond 1.1107 will counter the closing price reversal and implies a continuation of the downtrend. There is a high chance for the trend to change around 1.1215.

    The minor range is 1.1107 to 1.1215. Its 50% level or pivot at 1.1161 is controlling the short-term direction of the EUR/USD.

    The main range can be found between 1.1264 and 1.1107 with the retracement zone at 1.1185. The next target will likely be at 1.1204 and long-term Fibo level at 1.1185.
     
  12. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Member

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    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 3, 2019

    The euro major pair had a sudden reversal on Friday to remove losses early in the week. The drive shows a chance for further gains. Yet, I anticipate a pullback during the trading session with some resistance levels around.

    On the 4-hour chart, it shows confluence on the resistance from the 100-MA and descending channel headed upward. The 200-MA is just above the 100-MA that could give more resistance, which is recently at 1.1193.

    During the North American session, the closing the 4-hour candle is a necessity and closing around the lows could lead to an evening star pattern, which could then prompt traders for a short position.

    The EUR/USD pair resides higher than the 200-MA on the hourly chart. A rebound could bring the price up, above the horizontal line of 1.1170.

    The level of 1.1183 offers quite a strong resistance, seeing the previous losses and the existence of the trend channel in the current situation.

    On the horizontal level of 1.1150 was seen converging to the 100-MA, which can become strong support should it go down.

    Even if the current momentum is directed upward, there is a chance for a pullback given the resistance at hand. There is also a possibility for testing of the support around 1.1150. There will likely be various stops above 1.12 and can cause volatility as the bears react to safety on the situation. Nevertheless, the pair can move higher by the end of the week and a long position can be considered if it reaches around 1.1150/1.1144.
     
  13. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Member

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    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 4, 2019

    On the daily chart, the trend shows resistance at the present levels with a downward trend that occurred for most of the year.

    The 100-MA was also tested today, which also holds the pair below. The horizontal level of 1.1259 was the major support level in February and tried to keep low twice last month.

    There are signs of reversal signal that starts to appear on the 4-hour chart. A few candlestick patterns were observed to be exhausted near resistance. The previous candle was a doji which may indicate selling pressure close to the resistance.

    On the hourly chart, the last three candles that shows evening star implies a reversal pattern. A strong reversal pattern may be the case here or a pullback after a large gain.

    Another important factor at play is the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the correction last month. In case of a decline, the pair drops as low as 1.1213, which had a rally earlier. Further support can be found below 1.1200, close to 1.1195. Moreover, both of the 100- and 200-MA are converging around the said level on both the hourly and 4-hour charts.

    Nevertheless, even if the pair have a strong upward momentum, there is a major confluence at the resistance. Yet, a downward correction is likely to happen. Meanwhile, the bulls may think twice in pushing the pair higher.
     
  14. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Member

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    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 6, 2019

    The euro major pair dropped suddenly on Wednesday trading hours, which then resulted in a reversal candle on a daily chart. This opens the possibility for a good rally. Overall, the direction of the trend will be relative to the ECB which will meet later this day.

    The current trend indicates a downward movement more than expected. Meanwhile, different central banks eased the monetary policy or at least mentioned that they are open to doing so. Draghi will probably adjust the inflation forecast downward to an extent. In case that he chose to ease the policy amid the declining economic numbers, then the common currency will highly likely decline amid a high pressure.

    Looking at the average movement, there is not a high chance for the EUR/USD pair to return above yesterday’s high. This would show as much as 86 pip rally since the opening.

    Traders are suggested to look at the level of 1.1260, the level of which traders are likely to be aware of in the current situation. This has been on the lows twice last month and possibly be the limit at the present time. Although, it may not be that relevant after looking at the present levels.

    As mentioned previously, there is also a significant resistance higher than the said level, especially considering the 100-MA and 38.2% Fibonacci from the high to low of this year. Although, it is less likely to retest the Fibonacci. Thus, I would focus my attention on the level of 1.1273, considerably that yesterday showed a strong reversal pattern.

    There is also some support found around 1.1185 in case of decline due to the ECB on the 4-hour chart. This area will likely be maintained as the 100-and 200- MA are converged at the said price unless the ECB chief will have a new trigger to spike this.

    As for the hourly chart, the price resides around 1.1185 at the 200-MA. There is some upward resistance at 1.1260 as a considered level. Yet, I would not clearly put a stake on a surge of increase beyond it.

    In general, if the meeting turns are usual as expected, the pair will likely rally. It is suggested to look into the upper resistance and short yesterday’s high.
     

  15. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Member

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    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 7, 2019

    The euro major pair move forward on Thursday amid the slight dovish less the expectation ECB meeting. It was seen to be trading in a tight range before tha Non-farm payroll data to be released later this day.

    The ECB data mentioned easing during yesterday’s meeting but not sufficient for the market, which resulted in a rally in the euro major pair.

    To be more precise, Draghi adjusted lower the expected rate increase and mentioned TLTRO III.

    Fed chair Powell mentioned the tendency for a subdued inflation in the early days of the week. A few drops in inflation would have an impact on the monetary policy if this happens in a more steady pace.

    The ECB meeting shook the market expectations on central bank. For now, inflation in the euro is expected or at least until the next meeting.

    The EUR/USD pair encounters some strong resistance as it directs its attention to the level of 1.1260. Also, the 100-MA should be given attention as their is confluence with the decline of the Fibonacci just above it.

    The euro major pair was sustained higher at the horizontal level of 1.1260 in the early European trading hours. Moreover, the NFP did not show a lot volatility recently. I anticipate for the pair to try and defend the level of 1.1294. A support level to 1.1213 is open on a drop.

    The ECB meetings stands to keep the euro firm in the short-term. Hence, it also open opportunities in cross currency pairs. A break higher than 1.1318 would confirm the upward movement.
     
  16. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Member

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    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 11, 2019

    Last week, the Fed monetary policy is anticipated to have a dovish sentiment while the ECB has a strong stance about the economic outlook on the common currency.

    The main concern of the Fed is inflation as the decline in inflation will likely have a negative impact, which will then prompt the Fed to loosen their policies.

    Weak inflation would work well with the purpose and push the strengthening of the euro. The market already anticipates and prepares for the probable Fed easing. Nonetheless, there is a risk accompanied by inflation, which is why we can expect the euro major pair to have a hard time maintaining upward momentum before the release of economic data.

    On the technical outlook, the pair looks like having a hard time in the horizontal resistance around 1.1318, which has been significant resistance in April and was a support for some time.

    Initially, the pair testing the opening of the North American session. Thus, the traders during the early European session tried to raise the price higher, however, it was a failed attempt.

    Therefore, we can consider the level of 1.1318 as psychological level in the short-term. There is a chance for an increase in a condition that the pair closes above the said level on the 4-hour chart. Otherwise, it will maintain its range-bound trading.

    Meanwhile, the pair has been moving higher during the opening on the hourly chart of the Monday North American session. There is not much momentum to raise higher and a flag pattern is not confirmed.

    On the other hand, the level of 1.1294 can become resistance and support. This just shows the 38.2 Fibonacci compared to the year’s high to low. Thus, there is a chance for the pair to drop lower than the level but there is a probability for the pair to reach around 1.1280. There is not much volatility expected prior to the publication of US inflation.
     
  17. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Member

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    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 13, 2019

    The result of CPI data yesterday did not push the EUR/USD to move higher than the 200-MA (weekly) as it was seen below prior to the release. Hence, the traders are likely to focus on the US retail report scheduled on Friday.

    The final CPI data was shown to have increased by 0.2%, meeting the expectations. The unemployment data from Italy also resulted as anticipated in the first quarter of the year. Yet, these data did not have a big impact on the exchange rates.

    For this week, the 200-MA (weekly) presents to be a difficulty. Moreover, the pair is trading importantly around the indicator for a year.

    The pair has tested the August level last year, which was seen to move above it for a few months until it broke down in March. As of recently, the sellers were successful in the rally, which can make trading quite difficult.

    The pattern gives a bearish sentiment on the hourly chart. Soon after the inflation data yesterday, the euro major pair broke lower and the pair reached 1.1260. The support level of 1.1280 also gives psychological significance. The 100-MA is also shown to be converging to the horizontal level.

    On the 4-hour chart, the price level of 1.1280 reflects significance given the ascending channel from the May low at the same area.

    Given the decline, the downturn of the price is expected to move momentarily with the psychological levels at 1.1280 and 1.1260. Given the confluence in the support region, there is a possibility not to reach the next target despite the presence of a flag pattern. Traders may have difficulty in breaking the resistance from the 200-MA.
     
  18. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Member

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    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 14, 2019

    The euro major pair dropped to a range lower than 1.1280 prior to the release of the US retail sales data. It is likely that markets will focus on the Fed more than the retail sales. There is an important shit in expectations after the analysts noted three rate cuts for the year.

    The meeting scheduled next week will determine the policymakers course of action. Meanwhile, the markets are hoping for a signal on their next move, even earlier than the July meeting. Thus, the rally of the EUR/USD was due to the shift. If this is confirmed, then there is a chance for an upward movement.

    There is a high probability that the markets will look for a chance to cell the dollar after the initial reaction in the results of the retail sales prior to the Fed meeting.

    The previous bear flag pattern in yesterday’s report is still significant with the lower target at 1.1260 as the euro major pair heads below with low momentum. Nonetheless, it is still not too far from the target.

    Yet, traders should monitor the level of 1.1280 in the US trading hours. The market tries to push it higher during the early European session but the rally was not sufficient to be sustained.

    The pair stays range-bound on the 4-hour chart. Traders should also get ready to have some volatility in the US session, although it will not be much given that its Friday.

    It is also important to note that a made a breakthrough to the target level of 1.1260 moves to a bearish confluence with a resistance level that is important last week. Hence, there is a possibility to have a retest to defend this area. A break higher than 1.1280 can open chances for an uptrend while the upcoming Fed meeting next week keep the bids for the pair at bay.
     
  19. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Member

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    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 17, 2019

    The euro major pair is consolidating close to the 200-MA on the 4-hour chart after its recent drop on Friday. Nonetheless, the pair has a possibility to bounce upward.

    There was a boost for the pair to move lower due to the US retail sales data which strengthened the dollar. It was not able to hold the level as high as 1.1343 at the beginning of the week even to 1.1200 after the release.

    The Fed meeting is anticipated to be dovish that makes the market uncertain if the rate cut will push through, although there is a chance for the price to be reduced by as much as 20% at the beginning of the European session.

    On the one hand, the futures market did not turn hawkish after the retail sales, as it simply means an extended rate cut took place earlier than anticipated. The possibility of another two rate cuts in the past meeting is still on the plate.

    There is not much expected in the economic calendar except for the speech of Draghi today and tomorrow. Even so, the previous one did not really have an impact on the market. Thus, there might also be no reaction this week.

    Although, a short surge in volatility could take place due to the expected inflation data from the euro.

    There is a horizontal support level at 1.1204 on the 4-hour chart. This level plays an important role, considering the 1.12 level and the 200-MA close to it. A bounce off may take place when the decline fades this week. There was an important rally in late May that supports the decline in the early June.

    There is a strong downward impetus on the hourly chart, considering that there was a bear pattern last week while aiming for 1.1260. When the pair reaches this figure, there is support found below on the descending channel.

    Moreover, since the pair strengthened after the release of the retail sales, it implies the strong presence of sellers and they are determined to take the lead. Hence, recovery is not far from happening at the moment.

    We can expect resistance at 1.1237 in the next trading session and a confluence with 100-MA on the 4-hour chart. If this succeeds, it opens the possibility of the pair to reach the resistance of 1.1260. Any significant changes may occur after the Fed meeting and for now, trading promotes a range-bound movement.
     
  20. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Member

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    Location:
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    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 18, 2019

    After Draghi’s speech, the euro major pair lost 50 pips immediately after an hour, which shows the markets reacted strongly to it.

    The euro major pair dropped to some significant levels. Initially, it dropped below the 100- and 200-MA on the 4-hour chart. But then, it didn’t succeed to hold above an important horizontal level of 1.1204, which confluence with the 61.8% from the June low. Moreover, the 200-MA declines close on the 4-hour chart.

    A breakout in the important levels would mean the sellers are dominating the trend. The next support level will likely drop to 1.1176, which was previously the support and the March low.

    A breakdown towards the psychological level of 1.1200 is important and opens the possibility to reach as low as 1.1176. On the other end, the resistance level will likely be at 1.1204. Fundamentally, the Fed meeting will play a major role tomorrow and could restrict the downward movement of the pair today.
     

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