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Forex Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Discussion in 'Forex Forum' started by Andrea ForexMart, Oct 4, 2016.

  1. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Active Member

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    EUR/USD. October 28, 2020 – Euro fell sharply to 1.1740

    The EUR/USD pair began to decline sharply amid growing investor appetite for safe assets. The current quote for the pair is 1.1740.

    The pressure on risky assets is exerted by the widespread development of the second wave of Covid-19 and the approaching date of the US presidential election (November 3). At the same time, the dollar was supported by yesterday's data on the volume of new orders for durable goods in the United States: in September, the indicator increased by 1.9% m/m after gaining 0.4% a month earlier. Analysts had forecast an increase of 0.5% m/m.

    The indicator, excluding orders for transport and utility equipment, expanded 0.8% m/m after strengthening earlier by 1% m/m. The actual data exceeded the expectations of specialists twice.

    The euro was directly pressured by rumors that Germany plans to introduce a two-week quarantine with a stop to everything except important social facilities. In France, they are discussing the strengthening of restrictive measures for a month, and in the UK, options for a second lockdown are on the agenda.

    The economic calendar is empty for today, so the dynamics of the pair will continue to depend on the situation around the second wave of coronavirus and the expectations of tomorrow's ECB meeting.
     
  2. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Active Member

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    EUR/USD. October 29, 2020 – Euro fell to 1.1700

    On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair demonstrates a steady decline to the level of 1.1700. The euro was pressured by news of additional restrictive measures in Germany and France. In France, a nationwide quarantine is introduced from October 30 to December 1, and in Germany – from November 2.

    An additional driver of the weakening of the European currency was the news on Brexit. This week, there has been some progress in negotiations between the UK and the European Union, which has led to the strengthening of the EUR/GBP pair. This, in turn, put pressure on EUR/USD through the cross.

    Today we should pay attention to the important meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the conference of Christine Lagarde. A softer rhetoric is expected from the regulator amid the threat of a repeated recession in the economy. In addition, the ECB may adjust its economic forecasts downward.

    In the US, data will be published on the number of applications for unemployment benefits. Their total number should decrease by 510 thousand. Moreover, a decrease is expected for both initial and repeated calls. Also, attention will be drawn to the report on US GDP for the III quarter and the index of unfinished sales in the real estate market in September.

    USD/CAD. October 29, 2020 – The US dollar is growing steadily in tandem with the «Canadian»

    The USD/CAD pair has been demonstrating confident strengthening in recent days. The current quote for the pair is 1.3340.

    A meeting of the Board of the Bank of Canada took place yesterday, and the regulator, as expected, kept the key interest rate at 0.25%. In addition, it was decided to adjust the asset purchase program: now the bank will buy long-term bonds, which affect the rates on loans needed by households and businesses.

    Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Maclem previously said that the central bank is likely to keep the interest rate unchanged at 0.25% for at least two years. These plans put pressure on the Canadian dollar.

    An additional negative was brought by the decline in oil prices. Brent quotes fell to $38.30 a barrel for the first time since June 1. The driver of the decline was the data on oil reserves, which showed the strongest weekly growth since July, as well as the continued increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in the world. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), US oil inventories rose by 4.3 million barrels.

    Given the current news background, we can expect further growth in the USD/CAD quotes.
     
  3. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Active Member

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    EUR/USD. October 30, 2020 – Euro continues to trade below 1.1700

    At the end of the week, the euro continues to remain in the area of minimums below the level of 1.17. The current quote for the pair is 1.1670. The European currency was under pressure from the results of yesterday's meeting of the ECB.

    The European regulator kept the monetary policy unchanged (rate at 0%), but did not rule out the likelihood of its easing already in December. Additional pressure on the euro is exerted by the widespread withdrawal of investors from risky assets.

    At the same time, the dollar was supported by strong data from the US. A preliminary estimate of GDP for the third quarter showed economic growth by 33.1% q/q, with a forecast of an increase of 31.0%. In the second quarter, the country's economy collapsed by 31.4%. In addition, the US recorded a 40.7% rise in consumer spending in the third quarter, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell from 791 thousand to 751 thousand this week.

    Today, one should pay attention to the data on GDP of the eurozone: the indicator in the third quarter of 2020 increased by 12.7% q/q and decreased by 4.3% y/y, which turned out to be much better than forecasts (an increase of 9.4% q/q and a decrease of 7% y/y). This data will allow the euro to regain its losses somewhat.
     
  4. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Active Member

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    EUR/USD. November 2, 2020 – Euro has suspended its decline

    November began for the euro with weakening to the level of 1.1615. There are enough pressure factors on the European currency. Here and a decrease in appetite for risky assets, and lockdowns in Germany and France, and the presidential elections in the United States. Additional pressure on the euro rate is exerted by the dollar's popularity as a safe asset.

    Tomorrow will be the most significant event of the year – the US presidential election. Strong market volatility is likely from Tuesday to Thursday, as the future monetary policy of the United States is highly dependent on the new figure in the presidency.

    In Germany, from today, a soft lockdown is being introduced, which includes restrictive measures to reduce the spread of coronavirus in Europe. France also intends to introduce measures in the coming days. However, both the German and French economies look rather weak and may not withstand the second lockdown.

    Statistics on PMIs in the Eurozone and Germany were released today. Both indicators came out better than expected, which gave the euro some support and allowed it to rise to 1.1650.
     
  5. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Active Member

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    Brent. November 3, 2020 – Oil rises on US dollar weakness

    On Tuesday, Brent quotes are growing, reaching $40 per barrel. Prices are supported by the general weakening of the US dollar ahead of today's US presidential elections.

    However, despite the upward momentum, market participants fear that a decrease in demand due to an intensification of the COVID wave amid growing supply will lead to oversupply and a collapse in prices, as was the case in the I-II quarter of this year.

    In addition, the growth in oil production in the world continues to act as a factor for the weakening of Brent. The number of operating oil platforms in the US has reached its highest level since May this year, according to a Baker Hughes report. Moreover, in Libya, oil production reached 800 thousand barrels per day, and the figure could reach 1.3 million barrels by early next year.

    In such conditions, it will be quite difficult for OPEC+ to maintain a balance in the oil market. The next meeting of the organization is scheduled for the end of November, while the risks of oversupply remain the main driving force of the market.

    EUR/USD. November 3, 2020 – Dollar weakens against euro in anticipation of presidential elections

    Quotes of the EUR/USD pair on Tuesday are growing steadily, returning to the level of 1.1700. The current quote for the pair is 1.1715.

    Today is a very big day for the US dollar as America chooses its new President. And the future policy and economy of the country will depend on who will take the place of the head of the White House. The results of the voting will become known only tomorrow, therefore, during the day, the markets will experience increased trading volatility.

    It should be noted that in 2016, when Donald Trump won the presidential election, the euro appreciated by 270 pp. Trump has threatened to appeal the vote if he is defeated this year, putting pressure on the dollar amid political uncertainty.

    The American currency is under pressure, even despite strong data on business activity in the US manufacturing sector. Yesterday the business activity index for October was published: the indicator strengthened and amounted to 53.4 points against the previous value of 53.2. Today you should pay attention to the data on the volume of industrial orders in September: growth is expected from 0.7% to 1%.
     
  6. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Active Member

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    GBP/USD. November 5, 2020 – Pound rises on general US dollar weakness

    On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair is growing steadily, reaching the level of 1.3075. Today, a meeting of the Bank of England took place, following which the regulator kept the rate at 0.1%, and also announced the expansion of the purchase of government bonds by 150 billion pounds, bringing the total volume to 895 billion.

    The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank has shared economic forecasts in the IV quarter: the regulator expects a decrease in indicators, since a four-week quarantine begins in the UK from today.

    The US dollar against the pound sterling is weakening across the entire spectrum of the market after the publication of the interim results of the US presidential election. Joe Biden got 264 electoral votes and until the final victory he has to gain 6. At the same time, Donald Trump's team did not agree with such results and filed an application with the Georgia State Court to recount the voting results.

    Despite the local growth caused by the weakness of the American currency, the general background for the pound remains negative. There are risks of uncertainty about Brexit, a nationwide quarantine, and weak economic indicators. The total business activity index in October fell from 52.3 to 52.1 points. The index of business activity in the service sector fell to 51.4 points.

    EUR/USD. November 5, 2020 – Euro has reached the level of 1.18

    On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair continues to grow steadily, approaching the 1.1800 level. Markets continue to await the outcome of the US presidential election. The results are still unknown, as the vote goes through the mail and the election committee has not yet collected all the votes.

    According to preliminary data, Joe Biden collected 264 electoral votes and he lacks only 6 votes to complete victory. 214 boards voted for Trump. The team of the incumbent president has already filed lawsuits demanding a recount of the voting results in a number of states.

    The current quote for the pair is 1.1795. Uncertainty regarding the summing up of the voting results may last until the end of the week, and only then the further direction of the pair will become known.

    In addition to the election results, the meeting of the US Federal System and the subsequent comments of the regulator's representatives will be of interest. It is expected that until the passions around the elections subside and the White House does not decide on its further policy, the Fed will refrain from harsh statements and decisions. And under the current conditions, this can act as a positive factor for the dollar exchange rate. However, while the pair is growing steadily and during the day it can consolidate above the level of 1.18.
     
  7. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Active Member

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    EUR/USD. November 6, 2020 – Euro confidently moves towards 1.19

    EUR/USD maintains its upward momentum, approaching the 1.1850 level. Markets continue to monitor the US presidential elections, and the vote count is still in progress. So far, 264 electors have voted for Joe Biden, while 214 have voted for Donald Trump.

    Biden's headquarters have already announced their victory, but Trump considers himself «the winner by legal vote» and is demanding a recount in some states. Market participants expect that if Joe Biden wins, the Democrats will quickly approve a package of fiscal stimulus measures, which supports risky assets today.

    During the day, you should pay attention to the publication of the US Department of Labor report on the state of the labor market. The unemployment rate may fall from 7.9% to 7.7%. In addition, another 510 thousand new jobs can be created. If the data is confirmed, the dollar will receive some support.
     

  8. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Active Member

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    EUR/USD. November 9, 2020 – Euro consolidates near the level of 1.19

    The euro continues to strengthen against the dollar, close to the 1.1900 level. The US presidential election was won by Democratic representative Joe Biden, which put strong pressure on the dollar. The reason is that investors now expect more stimulus for the US economy, despite continuing divisions in Congress.

    Last Friday, the United States presented a block of interesting economic statistics that went unnoticed amid the elections. In particular, the unemployment rate in the country in October fell to 6.9% against the forecast of 7.7%. The number of jobs outside the agricultural sector increased by 638 thousand, while an increase of only 600 thousand was expected.

    The only thing that turned out to be worse than expected was the increase in wages. The indicator on the average hourly wages in October increased by only 0.1% against the expectation of growth by 0.2%. In general, we can say that the US labor market still maintains a positive momentum.

    The current quote for the EUR/USD pair is 1.1870. The RSI indicator moves horizontally, which signals the formation of a flat below the level of 1.19.
     
  9. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Active Member

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    Brent. November 10, 2020 – Oil shows strong upward momentum

    On Tuesday, Brent crude oil continues to rise, following the dynamics of yesterday. The current quotation of the asset is $42.88 per barrel. Experts note that such an upward trend has become the best over the past 6 months.

    The growth driver was the news from the pharmaceutical company Pfizer that the vaccine it has developed is capable of protecting in 90% of cases of COVID-19 infection. The company said that they plan to obtain permission to sell the new drug by the end of November.

    A cure for the coronavirus could significantly revive and revitalize the tourism industry, which has driven oil prices up.

    Additional support for Brent was provided by the comments of the Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia on the readiness of OPEC + to postpone the decision to revise the restrictions on oil production. According to the latest data, the total production of OPEC + countries in October increased by 210 thousand barrels per day and reached 32.27 million barrels per day. The increase in oil production was mainly due to the restoration of work in the fields of Libya.

    EUR/USD. November 10, 2020 – Euro declines after yesterday's highs

    The EUR/USD pair is showing a correctional decline today after yesterday's rise to 1.1920. The current quote is 1.1775. Yesterday was full of news that contributed to increased volatility.

    First, Joe Biden's victory in the US presidential election offers hopes for improving and strengthening America's international relations. However, buyers began to fix longs on the announcement by the head of the US General Services Administration of the refusal to recognize Joe Biden's victory, which increased political uncertainty in the country.

    On the other hand, investors were optimistic about news from pharmaceutical company Pfizer about the success of a new vaccine capable of preventing 90% of coronavirus infections.

    At the same time, the European currency was under pressure from the previously published statistics from the eurozone. Sentix investor confidence index for November deteriorated to -10.0 points against the previous value of -8.3. The data, however, turned out to be better than expected, implying a decline to -15.0 points. Additional negativity was brought by the news that the EU decided to impose reciprocal customs duties on US goods in the amount of $ 4 billion.

    Today during the day the pair will adhere to the flat dynamics in the 1.1800 area.
     
  10. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Active Member

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    EUR/USD. November 11, 2020 – Euro continues to weaken against the dollar

    On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair fluctuates weakly on both sides of the 1.1800 level, while the downward trend remains. Weak economic statistics from Germany put pressure on the euro: the ZEW economic sentiment index fell to 39.0 points, which was the lowest level since April this year. An additional negative is the worsening of the epidemiological situation in Europe.

    At the same time, participants in the foreign exchange market are concerned about Donald Trump's attempts to annul the voting results in Michigan and Pennsylvania. And his further efforts in this direction will only increase the uncertainty in the United States and suppress the demand for risky assets.

    Thus, the euro will continue to decline during the day, responding to the negative external background. The economic calendar is empty today, in the United States it is a day off in honor of the Veterans Day. Only in the evening will the speech of the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde be of interest.
     
  11. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Active Member

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    GBP/USD. November 12, 2020 – Pound falls on weak economic data

    On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair continues to decline, following the dynamics of yesterday. The current quote for the asset is 1.3145.

    Uncertainty around Brexit continues to exert pressure on the pound sterling. Under current agreements, the UK and the EU must agree on an initial draft of the deal by November 19. The final agreement of the contract should take place before the end of December 2020.

    Despite the ongoing negotiations, there is still no draft agreement, so the risks of a «hard» Brexit (without a deal) are growing every day. In this case, Britain will leave the single market and common customs space.

    A large block of statistics from the UK was published today, which also put pressure on the British currency rate, as all data turned out to be worse than forecasted.

    GDP in the III quarter increased by 15.5% in comparison with the previous quarter, which turned out to be worse than the forecast. Experts had expected growth to 15.8%. However, this growth has been a record since 1955. Industrial production data for September showed an increase of 0.5%, while experts had expected an increase of 0.8%. Manufacturing production rose 0.2% in September after rising 0.7% in August.
     
  12. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Active Member

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    GBP/USD. November 16, 2020 – Pound shows high volatility in Brexit negotiations

    The new week started with a weakening of the pound sterling to 1.3160 from 1.3240. The British currency is under pressure from news on Brexit and trade negotiations between London and Brussels.

    A spokesman for British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Friday that previous differences over equal terms of trade and fisheries remain in trade negotiations with the European Union. The politician noted that negotiations will resume this week. There is about a month and a half left until the end of the transition period, and the peak of tension in the negotiations will probably be in December.

    Today the macroeconomic calendar is empty. Attention may be drawn to the speech of the representative of the Bank of England J. Haskell.
     
  13. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Active Member

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    Brent. November 17, 2020 – Oil holds in September highs

    Yesterday, Brent quotes managed to reach the level of $44.60 per barrel, which was the highest since mid-September. The current quotation of the asset is $43.77. Prices are being supported by improved market sentiment amid reports of a new coronavirus vaccine. It became known that Moderna achieved 94.5% efficiency in trials of its drug from Covid, which strengthened investors' hopes for a global economic recovery, as well as demand for hydrocarbons.

    Additional support for Brent was provided by macroeconomic data from China: industrial production in October increased by 6.9% compared to the same period last year. Retail sales added 4.3% compared to October 2019.

    OPEC+ plans to refrain from increasing production until the oil market returns to balance are also a factor in the growth of oil prices. On the eve of the OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee announced plans to extend the current restrictions on production for another three months.

    However, the risks for the oil market are still high. The rate of spread of coronavirus infection around the world continues to grow, and the likelihood of new lockdowns remains. Which, in turn, cloud the prospects for global economic growth.
     
  14. KostiaForexMart

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    Brent. November 18, 2020 – Oil in positive territory despite negative external background

    Brent oil quotes continue to rise. Current price is $44.20 per barrel. «Bulls» were not stopped even by data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), according to which oil reserves in the United States rose by 4.2 million barrels over the week. Today you should pay attention to a similar report from the US Department of Energy.

    Yesterday, a meeting of the OPEC+ ministerial monitoring committee was held, which ended without recommendations for a production cut in 2021. Previously, market participants expected the committee to propose OPEC+ countries to extend the current level of production cuts until the end of the first quarter of 2021. The next meeting of the organization will take place only on December 16-17.

    The worsening epidemiological situation in the world can also change the current trend to a downward one. The high rates of spread of infection are forcing countries to introduce new social restrictions and quarantines, which, in turn, will inevitably lead to a decrease in economic activity and demand for hydrocarbons.

    EUR/USD. November 18, 2020 – Euro weakly hovers below 1.19 level

    The EUR/USD pair continues to feel confident and is approaching the 1.1900 level. The current quote is 1.1880.

    The dollar is still under pressure from the likelihood of a new stimulus to the US economy. Earlier it became known that the Republicans have finally approved a new stimulus package, but now they are talking about an amount of$ 500 billion, although the volume of $1-1.5 trillion was previously discussed. Another uncertainty over the stimulus issue alarmed the markets again.

    However, the data from the US released yesterday provided some support to the dollar rate today. Industrial production in the country rose 1.1% m/m in October against the forecast of 1.0% m/m increase. In annual terms, the indicator slightly improved and amounted to -5.3% (-6.7% previously). Capacity utilization in October was at 72.8%, higher than the expected 72.3%.

    Thus, today the pair will fluctuate below the level of 1.19 in an attempt to determine the further direction of movement. The released data on inflation in the eurozone did not have a visible effect on the dynamics of the pair, since the indicator remained at the level of -0.3%, as expected.
     

  15. KostiaForexMart

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    EUR/USD. November 19, 2020 – Euro shows decline

    At the end of yesterday's session, the EUR/USD pair weakened to the level of 1.1810. The current quote for the pair is 1.1835.

    The drivers of the decline were the correction of stock indices and gold, which fell in price after the news from Pfizer. The pharmaceutical company said the new COVID-19 vaccine is 95% effective, up from the previously announced 90%. And gold, as a rule, correlates positively with the European currency, therefore, the decline in the precious metal caused a correction in EUR/USD.

    The EU summit on the fight against coronavirus kicks off today. Also on the agenda is the issue of the EU budget plan, which was previously blocked by Hungary and Poland. In the evening, the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde will speak.

    In the US, data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits will be published. It is expected that the number of initial applications may be reduced from 709 thousand to 685 thousand. And the number of repeated requests should decrease from 6,786 thousand to 6,250 thousand. Also of interest will be the publication of the index of manufacturing activity from the Philadelphia Federal reserve for November and statistics on second-home sales in October.
     
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  16. KostiaForexMart

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    GBP/USD. November 20, 2020 – Unexpectedly strong retail sales data supported sterling

    Despite the growing risks of a «hard» Brexit, the GBP/USD pair continues to move to local highs in the 1.3300 area. The current quote is 1.3280.

    The dynamics of the pair was influenced by the statistics on the labor market in the UK. The number of applications for primary unemployment benefits for the week increased from 711 to 742 thousand against the forecast of 707 thousand. At the same time, investors were pleased with the reduction in secondary circulation from 6.801 million to 6.372 million against expectations of 6.47 million.

    Today you should pay attention to the publication of a report on retail sales in the country. The figure in October came out much better than forecasted: sales increased by 1.2% compared to September, when the indicator grew by 1.4%. The forecast assumed growth of only 0.1%. In annual terms, sales increased by 5.8%.

    At the same time, difficulties in negotiating Brexit continue to put pressure on the pound. Today it became known that negotiations were suspended again, now due to the discovery of Covid from one of the members of the negotiating team.
     
  17. KostiaForexMart

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    EUR/USD. November 23, 2020 – Euro reached the level 1.1900

    EUR/USD maintains upward momentum, approaching the 1.1900 level. The current quote for the asset is 1.1890.

    Emotions after the presidential elections in the United States have gradually subsided and now all the attention of the markets is shifting to negotiations in Congress on a new stimulus package for the American economy. Moreover, support for risky assets at the moment is provided by news on the vaccine. The UK is expected to approve a vaccine from Pfizer this week.

    Friday's statistics from the euro area showed that consumer confidence in November deteriorated in line with forecasts: to -18.0 points against the October value of -16.0. For the European Union, the corresponding indicator fell in November to -19.0 points from the previous -16.5. The data is not very positive, but it was quite expected.

    Today we should pay attention to the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in Germany: the indicator rose to the level of 57.9 points, which is better than the forecast of 56.5. Activity in the service sector fell slightly short of the forecast and amounted to 46.2. The composite index of business activity for the entire eurozone came out worse than expected: 45.1 points against expectations of 45.8. However, these data did not prevent the euro from continuing to strengthen.

    In the evening hours, the USA will present similar data. However, these data are unlikely to support the dollar, as experts predict a decline in absolutely all business activity indices. Thus, the weakening of the dollar will continue throughout the day.
     
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    EUR/USD. November 24, 2020 – Euro is recovering from yesterday's drop to 1.18

    Yesterday the euro rate fell sharply to the level of 1.18, but today the EUR/USD quotes returned to the 1.1880 level.

    The dollar was supported yesterday by the statistics from the US, which came out stronger than expected and somewhat reduced the fears of market participants about the downturn in the economy. In particular, the preliminary index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from Markit showed an increase in November to 56.7 points against 53.4 earlier. Business activity in the service sector in November increased to 57.7 points from the previous 56.9.

    In the eurozone, by contrast, similar indicators look less optimistic. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the region in November fell to 53.6 points from 54.8 in October. The index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector in November in the euro area deteriorated to 41.3 points from 46.9 earlier.

    At the same time, the euro receives support on the news about the productive development of vaccines against coronavirus - the third option is already known. This restrains the dollar's growth and supports interest in the euro as a risky asset.

    Today the macroeconomic calendar is almost empty, only the data on house prices in the United States will attract attention, the growth rate of which may accelerate from 5.2% to 5.5%, as well as the Conference Board consumer confidence index for November (data is forecast to deteriorate).
     
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    Brent. November 25, 2020 – Oil continues to renew highs

    The oil market continues to grow, hitting multi-month highs. Brent is currently quoted at $48.50 per barrel.

    Prices are supported by hopes for improved economic outlook and increased demand for hydrocarbons. Pharmaceutical companies continue to share positive news of the success of the Covid vaccines, boosting hopes for a fast global recovery and resumption of international travel.

    Additional support for oil was also provided by the results of the recent US presidential election, which was won by the representative of the Democratic Party, Joe Biden. The political uncertainty surrounding the elections has significantly decreased, which has given strength to risky assets, which traditionally include oil.

    EUR/USD. November 25, 2020 – Euro has renewed its maximum in early September

    On Wednesday morning, the EUR/USD pair rose to 1.1930, hitting the high of early September. The European currency is supported by hopes that the coronavirus pandemic will be defeated in the near future. Markets are in anticipation of the imminent production of the Covid vaccine and the recovery of the global economy.

    At the same time, the pressure on the dollar came from a weaker than expected value of the US consumer confidence index from the Conference Board. In November, the indicator fell to 96.1 points against the forecast of 97.7 and the previous value of 100.9 points. The current value has become the lowest in the last three months. Such data indicate that the stability of the labor market and the general state of the economy are still far from ideal.

    From such data, it can also be concluded that retail sales in December-January will be weaker than forecasts (simply due to less optimism of buyers).

    An additional influence on the dynamics of the pair is provided by the news about the readiness of the administration of US President Donald Trump to begin the process of transferring power to Joe Biden.

    Today you should pay attention to the block of statistics from the US: GDP for the III quarter, the volume of orders for durable goods in October, the balance of foreign trade in goods for October and the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in October.
     
  20. KostiaForexMart

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    EUR/USD. November 26, 2020 – Euro will continue to rally

    Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair renewed its early September high at 1.1940, later declining to 1.1900.

    The European currency is supported by optimistic investor sentiment: the markets expect that an effective Covid vaccine will appear in the near future, which can contribute to a rapid recovery of the global economy.

    The short-term strengthening of the dollar yesterday was caused by strong data on new home sales in October: the indicator rose to 999 thousand against the September value of 959 thousand. The positive statistics ended there, and the rest of the US data only disappointed the markets.

    In particular, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits rose again over the week, from 748 thousand to 778 thousand. The GDP level for the third quarter did not change against the previous figure and amounted to 33.1%, which is worse than the forecasted 33.2%. Most disappointing was the data on personal incomes of American households, which fell 0.7% m / m. At the same time, costs increased by 0.5% m / m.

    Moreover, at the end of the day, the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve System were published, which indicated that the regulator's course was maintained for further easing of monetary policy. Considering all that has been said, we can conclude that the «rally» of the euro will continue in the near future.
     

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