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Forex Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Discussion in 'Forex Forum' started by Andrea ForexMart, Oct 4, 2016.

  1. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Active Member

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    EUR/USD. March 30, 2021 | Euro continues to decline to multi-month lows

    The main currency pair continues to update its lows, reaching 1.1725. Sales of the European currency continue due to the deterioration of the situation with the coronavirus in the euro area, as well as against the background of the strengthening of the dollar, which is in demand due to the growing interest in «safe» assets.

    On Tuesday, the economic calendar is not of particular interest, but the rest of the week will be quite informative. Today it is worth paying attention only to the important release on the consumer confidence index from the Conference Board for March. Analysts do not exclude an increase in the indicator from 91.3 to 97.0 points, which is very positive for the US dollar.

    Tomorrow, President Biden will unveil his $3 trillion infrastructure project, and a key US non-farm employment report will be released on Good Friday (although markets in many countries, including the US, will be closed). Investors are preparing for the strongest payrolls in the last 5 months.

    However, there are risks: Biden's infrastructure project could be financed by raising taxes, and these are new taxes in the amount of $1 to $3 trillion, and the higher the real figure, the stronger the pressure on the stock market will be.
     
  2. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Active Member

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    GBP/USD. March 31, 2021 | Pound sterling is corrected after the release of GDP data

    The British pound is showing some strengthening today against the dollar after the publication of a block of economic statistics. The current quote for the GBP/USD pair is 1.3766.

    UK GDP in the IV quarter of 2020, according to the final data, grew by 1.3% q/q, while the forecast of an increase of 1.0% q/q. By the end of 2020, the British economy fell by 7.4% y/y against the forecast of a failure of 7.8% y/y. Such indicators can be considered positive, since by the end of a rather difficult year, the British economy was still able to show good results.

    At the same time, the property price index in Great Britain in March fell by 0.2% m/m after an increase in February by 0.7% m/m. This is worse than forecasted, but it can be explained by the cold weather this spring and the continued lockdown. In-store prices continued to fall in March and fell 2.4% y/y due to massive discounts, special offers and discounts.

    In the evening, you should also pay attention to the data from the United States. The dollar may receive strong support from the ADP statistics, which should show an increase in employment by 380 thousand. And this is a very good result, indicating a confident recovery of the labor market in the United States. If the forecasts are confirmed, the dollar will continue to rise to the area of local highs near 1.3660.

    EUR/USD. 31.03 | Euro recovers after falling to 1.1700

    Yesterday, the euro slipped even more, falling to the level of 1.1700. The fall was again driven by a jump in Treasury yields amid successful US vaccinations and a faster economic recovery. Back in early January, rates on 10-year bonds were 0.91%, and in March the figure reached 1.77%. The widening yield spread between US and German securities is also an additional negative factor for the European currency.

    However, on Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair is showing some correction: the asset quotes rose to the 1.1735 area. The entire spectrum of risky assets was supported by the publication of China PMI indices. The index of business activity in the service sector in March rose to 56, points against the forecast of growth to 51.9. In the industrial sector, the indicator was 51.9 against expectations of 51.3 points.

    Additional support for the pair was provided by the data on employment in Germany. The indicator came out better than the forecast, showing a decrease in the number of unemployed by 8 thousand.

    Tonight, attention should be paid to the speech of US President Joe Biden, during which the head of the White House will present a new program of economic assistance in the amount of $1.5-3 trillion.
     
  3. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Active Member

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    GBP/USD. April 01, 2021 | British sterling is moderately recovering

    The GBP/USD pair continues to trade in the range of 1.37-1.38. The current quote for the pair is 1.3775.

    Sterling received support yesterday after the publication of UK GDP data, according to which the economy grew by 1.3% in the 4th quarter of last year. The actual numbers beat analysts' forecasts for a 1.0% q/q rise in GDP. By the end of 2020, the British economy fell by 7.4% y/y against the forecast of a failure of 7.8% y/y.

    The pound received additional support today from the data on business activity in the manufacturing sector in Britain in March: the indicator rose to 58.9 against the forecast of growth to 57.9 points. In February, the index was fixed at 55.1 points.

    On the side of buyers is also the corrective weakening of the US dollar against the background of fixing positions on the eve of Good Friday and on the eve of Friday's Non-farm Payrolls. Labor market statistics from ADP were released yesterday. According to the report, the number of new jobs in March increased by 517 thousand, which fell short of the forecast of 525 thousand.

    The position of the British currency is also supported by the high rates of vaccination of the UK population and the related reduction in restrictive measures in the country.
     
  4. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Active Member

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    Brent. April 02, 2021| Oil starts to grow after the OPEC+ meeting

    The price of Brent oil started to rise after the announcement of the results of the meeting of the heads of the OPEC+ countries. At the moment, the quotes rose to the level of $65.03 per barrel, the current price of the asset is $64.70.

    The alliance, contrary to expectations, decided to gradually increase oil production within three months, starting in May. In particular, the collective increase in the current production level in May will amount to 350 thousand barrels per day, in June – 350 thousand barrels per day, and in July production will grow by 450 thousand barrels per day. Thus, the OPEC+ countries will increase production by more than 1 million barrels in three months.

    Saudi Arabia may also cut some of its previously voluntarily assumed additional production limit of 1 million barrels per day. It is noted that the majority of OPEC+ members initially supported the extension of the existing cuts, but the general sentiment changed after Saudi Arabia (the actual leader of OPEC) offered to increase production.

    April 05 | EUR / USD technical analysis: H4 chart, Pivot levels

    The euro / dollar pair opened today directly above the weekly pivot level, then after a small upward wave broke it from top to bottom, testing the DS1 resistance, turned sharply and moved to growth.

    Now buyers of EUR / USD are testing the DR1 level, if successful, one can expect further growth to the 1.1800 level, to the DR2 and WR1 lines, to the area of weekly highs.

    When planning new deals, do not forget that trades today are held in small volumes and unexpected bursts of volatility and false breakouts of levels are possible.

    Daily Pivot - 1.1765;
    Daily Resistance 1 - 1.1782, DR2 - 1.1802, DR3 - 1.1819;
    Daily Support 1 - 1.1744, DS2 - 1.1727, DS3 - 1.1707.

    Weekly Pivot - 1.1752;
    Weekly Resistance 1 - 1.1802, WR2 - 1.1842, WR3 - 1.1891;
    Weekly Support 1 - 1.1712, WS2 - 1.1663, WS3 - 1.1622.
     
  5. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Active Member

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    April 06 | USD / JPY technical analysis: H4 chart, Pivot levels

    The pair US dollar against the Japanese yen started today trading under the daily and weekly pivot levels, then crossed them from the bottom up, but then turned around and moved to a decline.

    The price of USD / JPY rewritten the low since March 29 at 109.666, having tested the DS1 and WS1 levels.

    The pair is decreasing due to the general weakening of the American currency amid rising yields on government securities and US stock markets.

    Daily Pivot - 110.289;
    Daily Resistance 1 - 110.621, DR2 - 111.078, DR3 - 111.410;
    Daily Support 1 - 109.832, DS2 - 109.500, DS3 - 109.043.

    Weekly Pivot - 110.324;
    Weekly Resistance 1 - 111.278, WR2 - 111.915, WR3 - 112.869;
    Weekly Support 1 - 109.687, WS2 - 108.733, WS3 - 108.096.
     
  6. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Active Member

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    USD / CHF. 07.04 | Correction to line EMA 21

    The US Dollar / Swiss currency pair dropped by about 600 points in yesterday's trading, to the 0.9300 resistance level, reinforced by the 21-day exponential moving average line - EMA 21.

    Today, the USD / CHF price has renewed its minimum since March 23, 2020 at 0.9282, trying to gain a foothold below the 0.9300 level. If sellers push through the indicated resistance, I expect a further decline to the level of 0.9200 and below, to the point of convergence of the EMA 60 and EMA 200 lines. In case of a rebound, a new upward wave.

    I will watch the price for the appearance of the key level 0.9300 and the appearance of additional signals to enter the market.

    GBP / USD. 07.04 | "Rails" from the level 1.3900

    The Pound Sterling / US Dollar currency pair formed a "rails" pattern on the chart with yesterday's daily candlestick, based on the resistance level of 1.3900, giving a signal to sell.

    The price of GBP / USD has renewed its maximum since March 19 at 1.3918, after which it turned around and moved to a decline. Perhaps we saw a false breakout of the 1.3900 level and the pair will return to the movement within the downtrend.

    It makes sense to take a closer look at sales according to the specified pattern, while it is safer to wait for the price to fix below the 60-day exponential moving average line - EMA 60.
     
  7. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Active Member

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    EUR / USD. 08.04 | "Pin bar" from the level 1.1900

    The EUR / USD currency pair has formed a pin-bar reversal pattern on the daily chart, rebounding from the resistance level of 1.1900, giving a signal to sell.

    At yesterday's trading, the EUR / USD price has renewed its maximum since March 23, 2020 at 1.1914. This week, the US dollar is under pressure, which allowed the pair to correct to the previously broken level of 1.1900.

    Apparently, the correction is coming to an end and the pair is ready to continue moving within the downtrend. It makes sense to take a closer look at the sales according to the specified pattern, while it is safer to wait for the breakdown of the EMA 21 and EMA 200 lines on the daily chart.

    April 08 | GBP / USD technical analysis: H4 chart, Pivot levels

    The pound to the US dollar at today's trading has rewritten the minimum since March 31 at around 1.3718.

    The price of GBP / USD has been moving in a sideways channel between the WS1 levels and the daily pivot level all day. Over the past two days, the pair has dropped by 1600 points, and today it went into correction.

    It is more likely that the downward trend will continue. A signal to enter the market can be the price fixing below the WS1 level.

    Daily Pivot - 1.3766;
    Daily Resistance 1 - 1.3809, DR2 - 1.3882, DR3 - 1.3925;
    Daily Support 1 - 1.3694, DS2 - 1.3651, DS3 - 1.3578.

    Weekly Pivot - 1.3794;
    Weekly Resistance 1 - 1.3882, WR2 - 1.3940, WR3 - 1.4029;
    Weekly Support 1 - 1.3736, WS2 - 1.3647, WS3 - 1.3589.

    Monthly Pivot - 1.3821.
     

  8. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Active Member

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    Brent. April 12, 2021 | Oil rises moderately at the start of a new trading week

    Brent crude oil continues to trade above $63 per barrel. The current quotation of the asset is $63.80 per barrel.

    Today, oil prices have started to rise on optimism about the recovery of the US economy, but the new wave of Covid-19 in Asia is limiting the rise in quotations. In the United States, about 70 million people have already been vaccinated, and in Europe, after tightening restrictions, the number of new cases of the disease has declined. At the same time, a record number of cases are recorded in India and other Asian countries, which will prevent the restoration of world tourism in the near future.

    This week, traders will be presented with monthly reports from OPEC and the International Energy Agency. They are expected to report on the growing demand from the global economy. Against this background, Brent crude oil may resume its upward movement and go above $64 per barrel.

    Last week, the IMF released a forecast that global GDP will grow by 6% this year, which is the fastest pace in 40 years. Traders predict that in the 2nd half of 2021, demand for hydrocarbons will increase and be able to offset the latest OPEC + decision to increase oil production by 2 million barrels between May and July.

    EUR/USD. April 12, 2021 | Euro rebounds on strong retail sales data

    The European currency is growing on Monday, breaking above the level of 1.1900. The current quote for the EUR/USD pair is 1.1915.

    The euro was supported by data on retail sales in Europe. The index in February increased by 3% compared to January, while the expected growth of 1.5%. Earlier last week, a report on industrial production for February was released, which put pressure on the euro. The indicator fell 1.6% m/m, while the market was expecting a 1.6% m/m gain. A month earlier, the index was down 2.0%.

    The USA on Friday presented the March producer price index, which rose 0.7% against the forecast of a rise of 0.2% m/m. In January, the indicator grew by 0.2% m/m.

    Today, the US is to release statistics on the execution of the federal budget in March, but this data is not reflected in any way on the exchange volatility. But the comments of the chairman of the US Federal Reserve System Jerome Powell may attract attention.
     

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