Forex Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: November 22, 2016


The Japanese yen exhibited significant losses during Monday’s session following the release of a negative-leaning Merchandise Trade Balance data. Meanwhile, the USD has been subject to buying interests due to increasing expectations of an eventual Fed rate hike in December.


Although the USD/JPY pair was unable to increase further and reverted immediately after testing the 111.00 trading range, the currency pair was able to remain in the positive territory during the last trading session. As of now, the pair’s value is still in an upward direction and has somewhat shifted from its previous limit. The pair’s price went slightly higher in the USD/JPY’s 4-hour chart. Resistance levels for the currency pair can be found at 111.00 points, while support levels are expected to be at 110.00 points.


The MACD indicator for USD/JPY dropped, indicating a decrease in buyer positions. The MACD also exhibited a bearish stance for its hourly chart, while the RSI indicator for the pair was able to remain within its overbought readings. If the USD/JPY pair fails to go beyond 111.00, then this could cause the USD to drop in value and plummet to 110.00 points. If the pair breaches the 110.00 range, then this could lead to further decreases up to 109.00 points.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: November 22, 2016


The Aussie continues its decline from 0.7778 level as is expected to stayed with the 0.7310 level to 0.7460 level in the following days. However, the climb from 0.7310 level is a form of consolidation. If the resistance level remains strong, the decline will persist and could even go lower at 0.7200 mark. The decline is supported when a break is seen at its Physiological levels.

 

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: November 22, 2016


The expected deal to be made at the OPEC meeting this week helped sustain oil prices and caused the USD/CAD pair to become muted for the majority of the trading session yesterday. The USD/CAD pair experienced a slight drop to 1.3400 points, triggering a decreasing in buying for the said pair. Since the OPEC meeting had a fairly good turnout, with the possibility of a deal being struck close, oil prices rose and this is expected to help in augmenting the strength of the Canadian economy. The effect of this increase in oil prices was reflected in the increase in the value of the CAD and the drop in the value of the USD/CAD pair. The currency pair traded tightly during the Tokyo and London trading sessions but was able to break through once the New York session began, with the pair dropping to 1.3380 where buying opportunities appeared and is now trading just over the 1.3400 range.


For today's trading session, the Canadian core retail sales data is expected to be released later within the day, with the data expected to come in at 0.6%. If the data fails to make it to this particular speculation then this could cause the currency pair increase to 1.3500. However, if the data manages to come in at the expected data then this could trigger a further decrease up to 1.3200. However, the uptrend is expected to continuously dominate the USD/CAD pair so any decrease in its value can be used by traders to buy the USD/CAD pair in the short-term.

 

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 22, 2016


Both the bulls and the bears have been struggling to take control of the EUR/USD pair even though this particular currency pair exhibited little activity during the past trading sessions. However, the USD has once again extended its recent strength, indicating that other USD-related pairs could experience a temporary recovery before again going downwards, and the EUR might find it hard to extend its profits through the 1.0675 trading range.


However, there is a substantial option interest within the 1.0600-1.0659 region and this could lead to the currency pair consolidating between this particular range. The minutes of the FOMC meeting is set to be released on Wednesday, and this particular data is expected to confirm market speculations of a Fed rate hike this coming December. The market expectations for the rate hike is currently at 90%, and speeches and comments from a number of Fed officials including Janet Yellen seem to point towards a confirmation of this rate hike.


However, there is also a possibility that the Fed rate hike might not immediately translate to an added strength in the USD and could possibly weaken the currency if the Federal Reserve refuses to give hints regarding rate hikes for 2017. For today’s trading session, there are no major economic releases expected today from the eurozone and the US, so the EUR/USD pair is expected to consolidate between 1.0600 and 1.0700.

 

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 23, 2016


The GBP/USD pair spent the majority of the previous trading session consolidating within the 1.2400 range as the USD kept on alternately losing and gaining its value for the past session. The value of the USD has been significantly uncertain for the past two sessions and this is an expected effect of a bullish market last Monday.


There are no major economic news releases expected for the latter part of November, and this is why a lot of currency pairs have been directed by option expiries and flows instead of fundamentals. The strength of the USD has been mostly attributed to the recent surge in US Treasury yields which was the result of Donald Trump’s victory in the US Presidential elections, but US Treasury yields have started tapering off its strength at the start of this week, causing the USD to lose some of its gains as well.


The minutes of the FOMC meeting are scheduled to be released later today, and this is expected to lend some measure of volatility to the GBP/USD pair even though the minutes are expected to confirm market speculations of an impending Fed rate hike this coming December, as well as give a general overview of the Fed’s future interest rate hikes. However, this could also induce a drop in the value of the USD once the minutes give the opposite of the market expectations.

 

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 23, 2016


The EUR/USD pair was expected to remain within the 1.0600-1.0650 trading range due to reports of large-scale options placed within this particular region and will remain until the options expire. The options within this range are scheduled to expire within the day and the minutes of the FOMC meeting are set to be released today, and the market is expecting an increase in the volatility of the EUR/USD pair which could possibly extend for the next few days.


There has been no major economic releases from the eurozone or the US from these past few days, and options players wielded their power during this period of low activity by attempting to control the financial market in order to safeguard their option entries. Unless other market players would have a good grasp on these very recent developments in the market, they might not be able to have a full understanding of the market movements during these past trading sessions.


For today’s session, the market is expecting quite a number of economic data to be released, such as the oil inventory data and unemployment claims data from the US. However, majority of market players are now waiting for the FOMC minutes which is scheduled to come out any time during the New York session. The market has a 95% expectation percentage for the December Fed rate hike, and the minutes from the FOMC is expected to confirm this particular speculation. Aside from confirmation of the rate hike, market players are also expecting to get hints regarding future rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. If the data fails to meet market expectations, then the USD could lose its strength and drop significantly.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: November 23, 2016


The Japanese yen increased in value following the news release regarding the earthquake that hit the country, but quickly retreated after the Bank of Japan released a statement saying that the Japanese economy is still well on its way to improvement. The JPY remained within a tight trading range around multi-month highs during Tuesday’s trading session, with the pricing of the USD/JPY pair staying within the 110.00-110.50 region for the rest of the day. The currency pair was able to trade above its moving averages in its 4-hour chart, with the moving averages sustaining their bullish trend.


Resistance levels for the USD/JPY pair are expected to be at 112.00 points, while support levels for the pair are expected to come in at the 111.00 trading range. The MACD indicators for the currency pair weakened, indicating a drop in buyer positions. Meanwhile, its RSI indicators remained within the overbought territory. If the USD/JPY pair manages to sustain its bullishness, then the next short-term aim for the pair is located at 112.00 points. If the USD/JPY pair manages to go beyond this particular level, then the currency pair is expected to extend its gains towards the 113.00 trading range.

 

USD/CHF Technical Analysis: November 23, 2016


In the H4 chart, the price was seen to break at 1.01 handle that pushed the support levels higher within the 1.0155 - 1.0129 levels. The Resistance level showed a weaker stance from 1.02939 to 1.0131 levels. There are some facets to consider to sell this pair. One is the H4 handle steadied at 1.01 handle even though there are offered seen within the supply zone. Another is the uncertainty in the current daily support at 1.0086 mark.


The trend could shift downward when the price closed lower than 1.01 level while there is less volatility. However, when there is a break at 1.0037 daily Quasimodo line, the price could reach the 1.0029 level to 0.9994 and 1.0019 levels. The best stance would be the price lower by 14 pips towards the 1.01 handle then a retest within the resistance zone.


The downward trend will be validated when the price in the H4 chart reached the 1.0086 support level with a probability towards the Quasimodo line.


Major news to be declared today are the U.S. Core durable goods data and U.S. Jobless claims this afternoon while the Federal Open Market Committee minutes of the meeting will be disclosed in the evening.

 

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 24, 2016


The euro together with the greens had bounced again on Wednesday following the strengthening of the USD as it was boosted by the positive data regarding the much reinforced economy of the United States. The pair is sailing smooth during the morning session of the Asia and Europe, however, the inevitable volatility started amid the NY trading session.


The pair tested the level of 1.0600 ahead of the announcement of the Durable Goods data which has a better-than-expected result of 1%. The positive release signaled the market to begin the USD purchase again which enabled the pair to break the 1.0600 and touched 1.0525 prior to the stabilization of the pair that settled below the 1.0550 during closing day.


According to previous readings, the regions 1.0500 and 1.0600 is considered as a stable support for the pair which is also mentioned by profuse large banks, the aforesaid level will be the expected mark for the euro as the year ends.


At present, the price movement emphasized a continuous softening and the Thanksgiving celebration in the United States will not become a driving force for the euro to edged high against the dollar. Technically, the signs bring no good for the EUR, in this way the single currency is kept intact and wait for a strong support which include the 1.0500, 1.0440 and 1.0440 marks until we found a much stable support.


The latest German Ifo Business Climate caused a short period of volatility but things as of this moment remains unaffected. The price action is still on guarded and anticipates for a test within the 1.0500 level in order to recognize the final result whether this movement will progress or not.

 

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 24, 2016


The sterling pound continues to be the sole currency that has survived the far-reaching effects of the USD’s recent surges since the GBP has continuously inched higher against the US dollar even during the US elections. The GBP/USD pair consolidated and range for the majority of yesterday’s sessions but the USD further increased during the opening of the New York session as economic releases from the US such as the Durable Goods data came out exceeding initial market expectations.


The GBP/USD pair initially plummeted towards 1.2350 points but recovered immediately and broke through 1.2400 and is currently resting just below the 1.2450 region. The GBP is currently on the strong side and should the USD exhibit weakness in the coming days, then the GBP/USD is expected to rise to 1.2600 and could possibly go higher.


The FOMC meeting minutes were released yesterday and has confirmed the possibility of a Fed rate hike this coming December especially since its members talked about the urgent need to increase interest rates as soon as possible. The minutes did not add much volatility to the market since it met initial market speculations. For today’s trading session, there are no important economic releases expected from both the US and the UK, and the currency pair is expected to further consolidate with bullish biases enabling it to sustain its position over 1.2400. Market players are slowly regaining their confidence in the sterling pound, and is expected to further increase in the coming sessions.

 

EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: November 24, 2016


Yen has depreciated resulting to breaks on the top psychological levels as seen on different pairing with yen. However the most sensitive among all those pairs is euro against Japanese yen. There is a tendency for the European Quantitative Easing could further decline the Euro in the coming weeks. If this persists with the Resistance levels sitting atop the price movement, it is best for traders to be careful with their next move.


The psychological level at 120 handle is significant for this pair which is 10 pips further than the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement considered as a 16-year move for the pair. Those who are waiting to trade in higher levels, they could suspend their trading until there is a clean break seen until the bulls could push the price higher. This could become an opening to look for new psychological levels in the next move.

 

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: November 24, 2016


The Canadian dollar against greenbacks moves in a consolidated state close to low psychological levels. The next move could be a rebound to 1.3500 level as what happened yesterday. There is less volatility in the market during the Asian and Euro trading session but it there has been a high activity during the U.S. session in preparation for Thanksgiving holiday which was further supported by the strong U.S. economic data.


The pair bounced higher than 1.34 level next to 1.35 level towards 1.3525 zone. This was induced by the reports from Iraq requesting to cut output of oil producers while balancing the market supply and demand. The current demand is stable while the oil price is predicted to climbed in the next days to come. This cause the loonie to rally and strengthen yesterday and retreated at the same time. The pair moves in an uptrend reaching 1.35 handle although it moves in a slow pace.


There is no major economic news for today from U.S. or Canada area. Hence, the current trend will remain bullish and consolidated.

 

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 28, 2016


The GBP/USD exhibited a generally bullish stance last week as the sterling pound continued to counter the recent strengthening of the USD, with the GBP the lone currency that has held its ground against the ever-increasing value of the USD. The strong stance of the GBP is reflective of the currency settling as the invocation of Article 50 draws nearer and after a positive reaction from the markets after the high court has ruled that the Parliament will have to go through a debate and discussion before pushing through with the said article. This has resulted into the market receiving assurance that the UK economy will be well taken care of as the region goes through the Brexit process.


This has caused the GBP/USD pair to continuously consolidate on both sides of the 1.2500 region in spite of the added strength of the USD. The GBP did not experience much volatility for the past week as the Hammond Autumn statement predicted a somewhat negative forecast for the UK economy for the next two years, thereby meeting general market expectations.


However, for this week, the currency pair is expected to experience added volatility as currency flows are more likely to have an effect on the value of the sterling pound. The NFP employment report from the US is also expected to determine whether the Fed will be increasing the frequency of its rate hikes this coming 2017.

 

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: November 28, 2016


The USD/CAD pair was consolidating and trading in a tight range last week, with the strength of the USD being countered by equally-strong loonie. However, the currency pair briefly dropped at the 1.3380 trading range but closed down the week on a much higher note at 1.3600 points. The USD/CAD exhibited active fluctuations throughout the week but were quickly reversed after sellers and buyers both struggled to take control of the currency pair.


The USD had remarkable strength for the past three weeks ever since the results of the US elections, while the increasing value of the CAD was largely attributed to highly positive economic data from the Canadian economy, as well as the continued buoyancy of oil prices. The OPEC is set to have a meeting this coming November 30 and the organization is expected to produce a deal between oil producers with regards to production cuts, with producers expected to be in support of a production cut, which has boosted the CAD and has kept the USD/CAD pair in line.


For this week, the market is expecting the OPEC meeting and if the results of the said meeting turn out to be positive, then the USD/CAD pair could possibly go upwards to 1.3400 and could even go further at 1.3300 points. For the US, the NFP employment report is also slated to be released within the week, and if this particular data turns out to be positive, then this could be an indicator for the market as to whether the Fed would be increasing the frequency of its rate hikes for next year which could further strengthen the greenback.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: November 28, 2016


The USD has just clinched its highest trading range for eight straight months against the JPY after the US bond yields continued to surge during the Asian trading session after the US market holiday. The ascending trend for the currency pair continued, with the price of the pair extending beyond its upper limit at 114.00 points before inching lower. The downward direction of the pair caused it to lose momentum at the 113.00 trading range during the start of the London session and remained until the end of the session. The pair’s 1-hour chart encountered its barrier at the 50 EMA, lending a strong support for the currency pair.


The moving averages for the currency pair maintained its bullish stance within its set timeframe. The pair’s resistance levels are expected to be at 114.00, while its support levels are expected to be at 113.00. The MACD indicators for the currency pair weakened, indicating a decrease in buyer positions. Meanwhile, its RSI indicators have already left the overbought range.


The USD/JPY is expected to go beyond the upward channel if the pair would be able to go lower than 112.00. In order to diminish the effect of the present upward pressure, sellers will have to induce the pricing of the pair to go lower than 111.00. Or else a move towards 113.00 will cause a positive reaction and could trigger the pair to reach the 114.00 trading region.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: November 28, 2016


Base metals, ore, in particular, presented a positive outlook on Friday which supported the Aussie to strengthen. The AUDUSD were able to expand its short-term upward trajectory and made a higher high on the same day.


The AUD entered the 0.7450 level but suddenly fell flat to reclaim it. The pair tested the level, moved lower and stayed within the 0.7450 region ahead of the opening of NY session. Both Aussie and greens made a reversal from its daily high and rebounded to the area of 0.7400 amid the North American trading session.


According to in the 4-hour chart, the pair broke the bearish 50-EMA whereas the indicator’s growth appears to be sluggish. Moving averages (50, 100 and 200 EMAs) expanded its declines as shown in the same time chart. Current resistance can be found at 0.7450, support pierced the 0.7400 region. MACD arrived in the positive zone. RSI accelerated touching the overbought territory.


There is a possibility for the pair to continue an upward trajectory near the 0.7500 when it breaks the level on top of the 0.7450. Should the pair stayed down from the 0.450, the price will edged lower and reverse its gains. In light of this, sellers were able to push the price towards 0.7350 and 0.7300.

 

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: November 29, 2016


The USD further dropped in relation to the JPY due to ambiguities surrounding oncoming economic events such as the release of the Non-farm Payrolls data and the minutes of the OPEC meeting, prompting a lot of investors to clamp down on their deals. The pricing of the USD/JPY pair sustained its upward direction during Monday’s trading session but remained within its lower levels and made small reversions during the Tokyo session. However, as the European session opened, the currency pair started speeding up its increase and ultimately reverted back to 113.00 just before the start of the New York session.


The hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair showed that its pricing was able to go beyond the 100 EMA during the middle of the London session and tested the 50 EMA towards the closing of the London session. The currency pair’s 200 and 100 EMAs went up further while the 50 EMA slowly went towards the neutral territory in the same chart. The resistance levels for the USD/JPY is expected to be at 113.00, while its support levels are expected to be at 112.00.


The MACD indicators for the currency pair inched higher, indicating an added strength in buyer positions. Its RSI indicators also moved upwards. For this week, the USD/JPY is expected to make a comeback, with the first bull target slated to be at 113.00 points. If the pair manages to reach this level, then the pair could possibly extend its gains toward 114.00 points.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 29, 2016


The remarks made by Mario Draghi was the center of attraction of the market yesterday. As investors anticipated for an improvement in policy and economy, as well as other concerns related with the June 23 referendum. Meanwhile, bears became active again this time. The previous recovery loses its gains around the 1.0700 region. The pair withdrawn from its recent highs and lowered down towards 1.0650 level amid post-EU hours. Moreover, seller's maneuvered the price near the 1.0600 during the EU session. The price pushed the 200-EMA below and found a barrier within the 50 and 100 EMAs as indicated in the 1-hour chart. The 200-day moving averages headed downwards, the 100-day average has established a neutral stance and the 50-day heightened. The resistance settled at 1.0650, support entered the 1.0600 level. The MACD increased and specified weaker position for the sellers. RSI headed southwards.

 

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 29, 2016


The GBP/USD pair was subject to downward pressure during the previous trading session as monthly cash flows combined with a slight increase in the USD triggered the pair to drop from its highs of 1.2500 to just below 1.2400 points. Every month, the market always expects added selling pressure for the GBP since the UK pays its EU membership fees every month. As a result, the value of the EUR/GBP increases, and the GBP becomes subject to significant losses.


There are also some speculations that the Brexit process will be subject to a number of legal challenges which could cause the process to be delayed altogether, and the schedule of events for the Brexit process could possibly go haywire. The UK government is also questioning the decision of the High Court for a Parliament debate first before pushing through with the Brexit process, while the Parliament is already preparing for the said debate just in case that the High Court refuses to overrule its previous decision on the Brexit process. The strength of the GBP would definitely be affected by these expected delays in the Brexit process and could have an adverse effect on the UK economy in general.


For today’s trading session, there is no major economic news expected from the UK. However, the US will be releasing its Advanced GDP data and this could increase the market volatility, with a consolidation possibly happening together with a bearish stance.