Forex Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

The main events by the morning: January 21

Upon assuming the office of President of the United States, Donald Trump signed a number of decrees that marked fundamental changes in the country's political course. Among his first decisions are the cancellation of 78 decrees issued by his predecessor Joe Biden, as well as the US withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement.

The President-elect of the United States immediately took action after taking office. One of Trump's first steps was to pardon 1,500 people convicted of participating in the storming of the Capitol in January 2021. He also temporarily suspended all U.S. foreign aid programs for 90 days and announced the country's withdrawal from the World Health Organization (WHO).

Trump has announced a number of initiatives that will determine the future economic and foreign policy of the United States. He announced the introduction of 100% trade duties for the BRICS countries, as well as 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, which will take effect on February 1. In addition, the president announced the cessation of oil purchases from Venezuela and demanded that NATO countries increase defense spending to 5% of their GDP.

About Russia and Ukraine: «We will try to put an end to the Ukrainian conflict as soon as possible.» Trump noted that he would understand the possible timing of the end of the conflict in Ukraine only after a conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. When asked about the prospect of maintaining sanctions, Trump said he considered tariffs to be more effective. He also promised an early conversation with Putin and reiterated that Zelensky is ready for a deal with the Russian Federation.

Bitcoin has fallen from record peaks amid the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies. The cryptocurrency markets were waiting for some decrees from Trump, but in his speech, the president did not mention either the industry or bitcoin. As a result, BTC fell from yesterday's high of $109,000 to an area near $100,000. The TRUMP and MELANIA memecoins, which caused a stir in the crypto market in recent days, also lost most of their growth.
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The main events by the morning: January 22

Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin had a video conversation. The leaders of Russia and China noted that by the end of 2024, the countries' trade turnover reached a record high of $245 billion, an increase of 7%. Xi and Putin again called each other «dear friends,» and the Chinese president expressed his willingness to take the countries' relations to a new level.

India will buy more oil from the United States after anti-Russian sanctions, and payments for Russian oil are delayed. India is now one of the 2 largest buyers of Russian oil. Sanctions against Russian tankers are hindering supplies, and restrictions on payments are causing Indian banks to question their interpretation.

The Bank of Russia has been asked to oblige banks to compensate citizens for monetary losses caused by fraudsters. «A Just Russia – For Truth» has made a corresponding request to the regulator. The faction believes that against the background of an increase in the volume of embezzlement from Russians, it is necessary to introduce additional mechanisms to protect and support the population.

Trump is destroying all the Democrats' efforts to protect inclusivity. The new president's administration will send all employees of the federal services for diversity, equality and inclusivity on leave. Among other things, agencies must stop employee training related to DEI, as well as terminate contracts related to it.

The United States will begin to develop artificial intelligence at the state level. Trump announced the creation of Stargate, a joint venture between OpenAI, SoftBank and Oracle. The firm is investing at least $500 billion in AI development, and the president has promised to support the company with emergency orders.
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The main events by the morning: January 23

Trump called on Russia to end its war immediately. He noted that there are two ways to end the conflict in Ukraine: easy and difficult. The US president would have chosen the easy way. However, if the conflict cannot be resolved, Trump intends to strengthen sanctions against Russia. At the same time, he added that «he does not pursue the goal of harming Russia and loves the Russian people.»

Ukraine expects the cessation of hostilities in 2025. This was stated by the First Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Economy of Ukraine Yulia Sviridenko. According to her, Kiev will enter into negotiations only when the country increases «defense production and is strong enough.» The Deputy Prime Minister also hopes for Trump's active participation in the negotiation process.

Saudi Arabia has promised to increase investment and trade with the United States. Yesterday, Donald Trump and the Prince of Saudi Arabia had a phone call. During the conversation, the Crown Prince of the kingdom confirmed his intention to increase investment and trade with the United States by $600 billion over four years and possibly beyond this amount. Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud also congratulated Trump on his re-election and conveyed congratulations from the king.

Trump has closed the southern border of the United States to illegal immigrants. US President Donald Trump has signed a decree suspending the entry of illegal migrants across the southern border and expelling them. He also restricted the right of migrants who entered the country through the southern border to stay there under the pretext of seeking asylum.

The United States is increasing its military presence on the border with Mexico. As part of Trump's orders, 1,500 military personnel, helicopters and intelligence analysts have already been sent to the southern border. In the near future, another 10,000 soldiers will go to the border. The Pentagon says that the announced measures are just the beginning.
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Telegram has chosen TON as the only blockchain platform for its ecosystem

TON will become the only blockchain infrastructure for Telegram thanks to a new agreement between the messenger and the TON Foundation. Pavel Durov, the founder of Telegram, said that this would ensure the stable operation of the platform and increase protection against fraudsters.

According to the agreements, all mini-applications using cryptocurrency are required to switch to TON by February 21, 2025. TON Connect will become an exclusive protocol for wallet integration. In addition, Telegram plans to develop new projects using TON, such as asset tokenization and the creation of NFT stickers.

To simplify the transition of projects from other blockchains, the TON Foundation offers grants of up to $50,000, available to developers who have not previously received payments from the fund and will transfer their projects within 30 days.

The centralization of blockchain activities in TON is probably related to the need to strengthen security. According to the data, since November 2024, the number of phishing attacks on crypto investors has increased by 2000%. This solution will allow the messenger to reduce the risks of fraud and establish uniform standards for cryptocurrency applications.

At the moment, the Toncoin price is holding at around $5,147.
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The main events by the morning: January 27

The United States imposed 25% duties on all goods from Colombia in response to the country's refusal to accept deported illegal immigrants. This was stated by President Donald Trump, calling the new measures «just the beginning.» In addition to the tariffs, the United States suspended the admission of Colombian officials and increased checks on Colombian citizens. These steps are part of Trump's updated migration policy, which provides expanded powers to deportation services. In recent days, there have been mass expulsions of illegal migrants to Brazil, Mexico and Guatemala.

Colombia is losing ground to the United States under pressure from tariffs. After the introduction of 25% duties, Colombia agreed to accept flights with deported migrants. The Trump administration has said it is ready to lift all restrictions, including visa sanctions, as soon as the first plane carrying the deportees lands in Colombia.

Ratings drop: Macron and Starmer lose support. French President Emmanuel Macron's rating has dropped to a record low of 21%, according to Le Journal du Dimanche. The decline in popularity among pensioners, a key group of his constituents, is especially noticeable due to the unpopular pension reform. In the UK, the situation is no better: Prime Minister Keir Starmer has only 20% support.

The Moscow Exchange returns morning trading. Starting today, the Moscow Stock Exchange resumes its morning session on the stock market. Now the auction will be held from 6:50 to 23:50 Moscow time, which will provide 17 hours of work per day. In the morning, investors will be able to trade the most liquid stocks and OFZs. The change in the index level at this time will be reflected through a special index of the additional session – IRUS2.

Hungary is looking forward to a new stage in relations with the United States. Hungary is preparing for a «golden age» in relations with the United States after Donald Trump came to power. This was stated by Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto after talks with new Secretary of State Marco Rubio. U.S. representatives assured Hungary that the system of bilateral political relations would be reformed. According to Szijjarto, the two countries' positions coincide on key policy areas, which creates the basis for strengthening cooperation.
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WTI Oil Holds Its Ground, Fearing a Collapse

The hydrocarbon markets are under pressure, trying to cope with the current volatility. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices, which have already declined, are facing additional pressure. However, WTI is attempting to stabilize and avoid dropping to lower levels.

On Tuesday, January 28, WTI, the benchmark crude oil in the U.S., was trading near $73.00 per barrel. Futures for this light crude saw a considerable decline. On the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), WTI crude oil futures for March delivery were priced at $73.16 per barrel, with American crude briefly dipping by 0.01%. Despite this, support was observed near $73.08, while resistance was established at $76.00 per barrel.

In contrast, Brent crude futures for April delivery on ICE saw a slight increase of 0.01%, reaching $76.19 per barrel. The price difference between Brent and WTI contracts was recorded at $3.03 per barrel. Additionally, the USD Index futures, which track the dollar's performance against a basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.49%, reaching a value of $107.69, as noted by experts.

Analysts report that WTI crude prices are facing pressure due to uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans. Weak economic data from China is further complicating the situation.

Over the weekend, Trump unsettled the markets by threatening to impose tariffs on goods from Colombia and indicated he may take similar actions against China, Canada, Mexico, and the European Union. Additionally, he expressed his intention to pressure Saudi Arabia and OPEC to reduce oil prices. This uncertainty regarding the effects of Trump's proposed tariffs is heavily affecting WTI prices.

Adding to the complexity is the new administration's energy policy, which could significantly destabilize WTI prices in the near future. Financial analyst David Eng points out that WTI and Brent prices were already volatile and are now under added pressure as the market reacts to recent developments in U.S. trade policy. Eng noted, "While the tariffs that the Trump administration threatened against Colombia were short-lived, similar trade actions could trigger unrest in global markets."

The emergence of the Chinese startup DeepSeek has added fuel to the fire, as it has surpassed ChatGPT in both popularity and market capitalization. DeepSeek's disruptive entry into the market has shocked investors, leading to a decline in most stock prices. Additionally, this low-cost artificial intelligence (AI) model has raised concerns about the energy demand of data centers.

This week, market participants are closely watching the Federal Reserve's meeting scheduled for Wednesday, January 29. The Fed is expected to announce its decision regarding interest rates. Experts believe that, given the current uncertainty, the U.S. central bank will likely keep the key interest rate unchanged.

Oil traders are particularly focused on the January FOMC meeting for insight on future monetary policy. A hawkish stance from the Fed could pressure economic growth and diminish expectations for WTI oil demand. Conversely, a dovish approach from the central bank could support oil prices in the near term.
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The main events by the morning: January 29

The European Union plans to abandon Russian aluminum within a year. The EU intends to introduce a phased ban on imports of Russian aluminum as part of the 16th package of sanctions. Also, in accordance with the future package of measures, 15 more Russian banks may be disconnected from SWIFT and sanctions may be imposed affecting 70 Russian vessels.

The Czech Republic may become the first European country with cryptocurrency in reserves. The head of the Czech National Bank, Ales Michl, plans to invest part of the country's reserves in bitcoins, which could make the bank the first central bank in the West with crypto assets. He intends to propose to the board of directors to invest up to 5% of the reserves, estimated at $140 billion, in cryptocurrency.

Trump is still aiming to impose trade duties on Canada and Mexico from the beginning of February. This was announced by White House press Secretary Carolyn Levitt. According to her, the president confirmed that the date of February 1 is still considered as the deadline for the introduction of these restrictive measures. In addition, Levitt clarified that similar steps could be taken against China.

Scott Bessent, an American financier, became the 79th Secretary of the Treasury of the United States. He will have to fulfill key tasks: to maintain the stability of the national economy, promote its growth and create new jobs for citizens. Previously, he headed the British division of Soros Fund Management, founded the funds Bessent Capital and Key Square Group. Bessent's fortune is estimated at 700 million.

Protests organized by the Alliance for Preventive Economic Day will be held in Germany. Actions in large cities are designed to draw attention to the crisis and demand reforms: lower taxes, bureaucracy, and energy prices. Protests will start in Berlin at the Brandenburg Gate. The Alliance warns that the German economy is experiencing stagnation, accompanied by an outflow of domestic companies and a reduction in interest from international investors.
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AI Race Heats Up: China Advances, Nvidia Loses 4%, Markets Fall

US Stocks End in the Red: Fed, Chinese Tech Impact
US stock indexes closed lower on Wednesday, but were able to recover some of their losses after encouraging remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. As expected, the Fed left its key interest rate unchanged, giving the market a signal of continued stability.

Tech Sector Under Pressure
Tech giants took the brunt of the blow. The S&P 500 index felt pressure from the high-tech sector (.SPLRCT), and Nvidia (NVDA.O) shares lost 4.1% of their value. Microsoft (MSFT.O) shares also fell by 1.1%, continuing a downward trend that began after the emergence of Chinese company DeepSeek, which presented its own artificial intelligence models. The new developments turned out to be more economical and efficient even on less powerful chips than those used by OpenAI, which worried investors.

Market reaction to the Fed's statement
After the publication of the Fed's decision, the stock market showed an additional decline: the Nasdaq index fell by more than 1% during trading. The US central bank changed its rhetoric on inflation, no longer declaring progress in reducing it, but only noting that price growth remains at a high level. At the same time, the decision to keep the rate at the current level did not come as a surprise to investors. Earlier in 2024, the regulator cut the interest rate three times, reducing it by a total of one percentage point. However, now the Fed is signaling a more cautious approach, leaving markets waiting for further steps.

Markets cut losses: Powell confidently guides investors
US stock indices managed to partially recover from the decline, when the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, began his speech at a press conference. His restrained but confident statements helped to reduce panic among investors. He noted that the regulator does not need to rush to revise monetary policy, and the current course remains flexible enough to manage economic risks.

Financial analysts note Powell's confidence
"Powell is a master at calming the markets," said Jake Dollarhide, CEO of Longbow Asset Management. According to him, a strong economy gives the Federal Reserve room to make balanced decisions, which has a positive effect on investor sentiment.

However, despite this, leading stock indices closed the session in the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 136.83 points (-0.31%) to close at 44,713.52. The S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 28.39 points (-0.47%) to close at 6,039.31, and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) fell 101.26 points (-0.51%) to close at 19,632.32.

Fed Stays on Track
The Federal Reserve hasn't thrown any surprises at the market, Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities, confirmed. He said the lack of surprises in the Fed's rhetoric was expected, and the markets have taken it in stride. However, Powell refrained from making predictions about Donald Trump's economic policies, noting that it is too early to talk about their consequences. The central bank intends to take a wait-and-see approach to assess the possible impact of new initiatives on the economy.

Investors are concerned about US trade policy
The main concerns of market participants are related to the tariffs proposed by Trump. Economists believe that these measures could increase inflation and create additional obstacles to lowering interest rates. At the same time, the Fed has not given clear signals about when exactly the next reduction in borrowing costs might occur, which leaves markets in a state of uncertainty.

In the coming weeks, investors will continue to closely monitor macroeconomic indicators and statements from the regulator in order to better understand the possible further steps of the Federal Reserve.

Markets await an important inflation indicator
A key event for the further direction of the market will be the publication of the consumer price expenditure index (PCE), which is scheduled for Friday. This indicator is considered one of the most important indicators of inflation, which the Fed uses when making decisions on monetary policy. Investors are hoping the data will provide more clarity on future rate dynamics.

F5 shares soar on upbeat outlook
Amid a broader market decline, shares of cloud services company F5 (FFIV.O) soared 11.4%. The surge came after the company gave an upbeat second-quarter revenue forecast and beat expectations for its first-quarter profit. The strong gains suggest that demand for cloud technology is continuing despite the turbulence in the tech sector.

Microsoft loses ground on weak cloud outlook
Meanwhile, Microsoft (MSFT.O) shares were under pressure. The company's shares fell 4.5% in over-the-counter trading after giving a disappointing outlook for its cloud business. Investors are concerned about the high costs of developing artificial intelligence, uncertainty about future revenue from the technology, and growing competition from Chinese AI developers offering cheaper solutions.

The decline was another sign that even tech giants are struggling in a competitive and uncertain global marketplace.

Azure growth forecast disappoints investors
Microsoft CFO Amy Hood said Azure could grow in the 31% to 32% range in its fiscal third quarter, below the 33% forecast. The numbers were a disappointment to the market, as analysts had expected stronger momentum in cloud computing, a key driver of the company's future growth.

Azure revenue increased 31% in the quarter, but fell short of the 31.8% forecast by Visible Alpha. At the same time, Microsoft's capital expenditures reached $22.6 billion, beating analysts' average forecast of $20.95 billion.

Satya Nadella: Microsoft Makes AI Services More Affordable
At a conference with analysts, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella emphasized that the company continues to invest in building powerful data centers needed to develop and scale artificial intelligence models. According to him, the priority remains not only technological progress, but also reducing the cost of AI solutions for customers.

"We are actively working on software optimization," Nadella said. "This applies not only to the technologies presented by DeepSeek, but also to many years of efforts to reduce the cost of GPT models in partnership with OpenAI." The head of the company also noted that significant improvements in algorithms have made it possible to significantly increase the efficiency of data processing, which is critical for the further implementation of AI in cloud services.

Microsoft remains the flagship of AI, but lags behind competitors in growth dynamics
Despite high investments in the AI sector, Microsoft shares have added only 8% over the past year. This is significantly lower than the 29% growth of Alphabet and the 50% increase in the value of Amazon. However, investors still view the company as a key player in the AI industry.

According to LSEG, Microsoft trades at about 32 times expected earnings, slightly above its five-year average of 30 times. This indicates that the market has elevated expectations for future profits from the company's AI developments.

Financial performance exceeds analysts' estimates
Despite pressure from competitors, Microsoft was able to beat market estimates. The company's revenue for the second fiscal quarter (ending in December) increased by 12%, reaching $ 69.6 billion, which is higher than the average analyst estimate of $ 68.78 billion.

In addition, earnings per share were $ 3.23, which was also higher than the forecast of $ 3.11 per share.
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Gold has updated the record, reaching $2,800 per ounce

The price of gold reached an all-time high on Friday, capping its best month since March 2024. Investors are actively switching to this protective asset amid concerns about tariffs in the United States. Traders' attention is focused on the key report on inflation in the United States, expected later.

The spot price of gold was $2,793 per ounce, an increase of more than 6% in a month. Earlier, quotes reached the level of $2,800. Futures are trading at $2,843, retreating from the record of $2,859 recorded in the Asian session. Trading activity remained low due to the closure of Chinese markets in connection with the celebration of the Lunar New Year.

US President Trump has confirmed plans to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada. Analysts note that such threats have increased the demand for gold as a safe asset. Inflation data may show the flexibility of the Fed's policy, which will accelerate expectations of a rate cut and support gold.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the softness of further policy will depend on inflation and the labor market.
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"Golden" Steps: Is Gold Rising Higher and Higher?

Gold prices are poised for further gains as they capitalize on heightened geopolitical tensions. In the current environment, gold continues to climb, reaching new highs and overcoming various obstacles.

Investors are increasingly turning to gold as a safe-haven asset, driven by fears of an escalating trade war. Additional support for gold prices comes from expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates and the persistently low U.S. Treasury yields.

After a minor dip on Thursday, February 6, gold regained positive momentum and remained near its historical peak on Friday, February 7. Earlier this week, gold reached a record high of $2,882 per ounce, fueled by uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies. On Friday, February 7, gold was trading at $2,861, trying to push even higher.

Geopolitical and Economic Drivers Supporting Gold
The escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China, along with concerns about the potential negative consequences of Trump's aggressive trade policies, are increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold. This demand has pushed gold prices closer to record highs, gaining momentum ahead of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

Market expectations that the Fed will continue cutting rates in 2025 are keeping U.S. Treasury yields at low levels. However, rather than attracting large buyers for the dollar, this low yield environment has provided further support for gold prices. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has dropped to its lowest level since December 12, 2024, amid anticipations that the Fed will implement two rate cuts by the end of 2025. This sentiment remains favorable for gold.

Technical Outlook: Gold (XAU/USD)
The technical chart indicates that the recent overnight rebound and subsequent price increase confirm a short-term bullish outlook for gold. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that the market is slightly overbought, which advises bullish traders to proceed with caution. Experts recommend waiting for a period of short-term consolidation before expecting a continuation of the uptrend.

According to the technical chart, the $2855 horizontal zone, along with the overnight low near $2834, will serve as short-term support for gold. Below this, the $2815-$2714 range is also a key area to watch. Additionally, the $2800 mark is significant; a breakthrough could trigger technical selling. In such a scenario, the XAU/USD pair may pull back to the resistance breakout point at $2773-$2772. This level coincides with the weekly low, and a strong breakout could lead to a more significant correction.

Citi Research Raises Gold Price Forecasts for 2025
Amid the current market conditions, Citi Research has improved its short- and medium-term gold price forecasts for 2025, citing trade wars and geopolitical tensions linked to Trump's administration. Additionally, central bank gold purchases have also contributed to the revised outlook.

In their latest report, Citi analysts raised their three-month gold price forecast from $2,800 to $3,000 per ounce. For 2025, analysts expect gold to reach $2,900 per ounce.

"It appears that under Trump 2.0, the gold bull market will gain momentum as trade wars and geopolitical uncertainty drive further reserve diversification and dedollarization. Additionally, these factors support gold demand in the official sector across emerging markets," Citi Research emphasized.

U.S. Jobs Data Could Impact Gold and Dollar Demand
Market participants are waiting for the release of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Preliminary forecasts indicate that 170,000 jobs were added in January, a decline from 256,000 in the previous month. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to remain around 4.1%. These figures are crucial for shaping the Fed's monetary policy outlook and influencing both dollar demand and gold price dynamics.

The ongoing trade conflict also significantly affects gold prices. This week, former President Trump imposed an additional 10% tariff on all Chinese imports. In response, China quickly implemented retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports, effectively reigniting the trade war between the world's two largest economies. Beijing introduced tariffs on specific U.S. goods, indicating a new phase in the trade conflict, which further supports elevated gold prices.

 

Bitcoin still far away from bottom?

The leading digital asset has slightly declined over the past few days but remains afloat. Bitcoin is striving to recover lost ground. Analysts say that BTC is succeeding.

On Monday, February 10, Bitcoin opened with a drop followed by a recovery. The asset traded at $96,752 in the morning before rising to $97,650.

Over the past 24 hours, the BTC market saw minor recovery after a bearish trading week. Following a sharp drop to $91,000 on Monday, February 3, analysts and market participants feared that Bitcoin had reached a local bottom. However, historically, a rebound follows such declines. There is no consensus on BTC's near-term trajectory, but many believe that the flagship asset is far from reaching a true bottom.

According to crypto expert Ali Martinez, now is an ideal time to buy Bitcoin. Using CryptoQuant data, Martinez analyzed optimal entry points for investors. The realized price of all BTC purchased in the last three months is $97,354, indicating that the market's total loss is less than 1%, given that Bitcoin is currently trading at $97,000.

However, Martinez notes that the most favorable buying conditions have historically occurred when traders were down 12%. With Bitcoin's average market loss under 1%, conditions may not yet be ideal for new buyers, as there is significant potential for further correction. Martinez's estimates suggests that Bitcoin is far from a local bottom despite the recent decline.

Preliminary forecasts indicate the next local bottom for BTC could be $85,600, which would create an optimal accumulation zone for investors looking for higher returns.

However, new variables—such as strong institutional interest and corporate accumulation via spot ETFs—could prevent Bitcoin from reaching these lows and instead spark the next bullish cycle.

Miners' actions could lead to Bitcoin weakness

For the past four days, Bitcoin has traded near $96,500, showing no significant movement. A potential concern is a sell-off from Bitcoin miners, which could exert downward pressure on BTC's price.

Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, believes that the current stagnation in Bitcoin's price could be driven by miners offloading their holdings.

BTC dropped 2.70% over the past week, but monthly returns remain positive at 3.76%. Despite strong buyer support near $96,000, a breakout above $97,000 remains elusive—a sign that Bitcoin could reverse if bearish pressure intensifies.

Bitcoin faces challenges amid macro turbulence

Bitcoin's sluggish performance in February is partly due to unfavorable macroeconomic factors. Global market turbulence intensified due to US tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump and escalating trade tensions between Washington and Beijing. The initial sharp market reaction led to over $2 billion in liquidations across digital assets, but crypto markets have since stabilized.

Bitcoin is now holding steady around its $96,000 support level.

Market sentiment & Bitcoin forecast

According to CoinCodex analysts, investors remain uncertain, with the Fear and Greed Index currently at 44 ("Fear"). Despite current stagnation, CoinCodex experts believe Bitcoin will soon enter a bullish phase.

Short-term BTC projections: In five days, Bitcoin is expected to reach $106,613. In one month, BTC could trade at $129,434.

Long-term BTC forecasts (3 months): Bitcoin could rise to $158,992, according to some analysts.

With a market capitalization of $1.92 trillion, Bitcoin remains the largest digital asset, dominating 60.6% of the crypto market.

Bearish miner data signals potential downtrend

IntoTheBlock's miner reserves indicator presents a bearish outlook for Bitcoin. The reason? A sharp decline in BTC reserves among mining companies. This metric tracks daily BTC balance changes in wallets controlled by major miners and mining pools. Between February 4 and February 8, miner reserves dropped from 1.94 million BTC to 1.91 million BTC. This resulted in an outflow of approximately 30,000 BTC (~$3 billion), increasing short-term BTC supply and intensifying selling pressure. If miners continue offloading BTC reserves at this rate, Bitcoin may struggle to stay above its $96,000 support level. The current trend raises the risk of BTC falling to $94,500 or lower.

Bitcoin at crossroads: bullish rebound or further decline?

The short-term outlook for Bitcoin remains uncertain. If miners reduce selling pressure and Bitcoin breaks above $97,000, a new bullish trend could emerge.

However, if the opposite scenario unfolds, BTC could remain stagnant or enter a short-term bearish phase.

Bitcoin is currently at a pivotal moment, experts say. Traders and investors are closely monitoring miners' activity and macroeconomic developments to respond swiftly to any market shifts.
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The main events by the morning: February 11

US President Donald Trump has approved duties of 25% on steel and aluminum imports, including shipments from Canada and Mexico. The new tariffs will take effect on March 12 and will cover all imports of these metals. According to Trump, the measures are designed to stimulate domestic production and increase employment in the country, and duty rates may be increased in the future.

Gold prices set a new record, reaching $2,942 per ounce, amid the imposition of US tariffs. Futures rose to $2,949, briefly rising to $2,968. Trump's measures increased concerns about inflation and trade conflicts. Investors are waiting for CPI and PPI data in the United States, as well as a speech by Fed Chairman Powell.

Elon Musk and a consortium of investors have offered $97.4 billion to buy the non-profit organization that runs OpenAI. Musk, through a lawyer, stated the need to return OpenAI to the original idea of open source. Sam Altman, the head of OpenAI, replied on the social network X: «No thanks, but we can buy Twitter for $9.74 billion.» In 2022, Musk acquired Twitter, renamed X, for $44 billion.

The volume of Ethereum shorts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), increased by 40% in a week, and by 500% since November 2024. This is no longer similar to classic hedging through futures. There are two possible scenarios: either the market is waiting for a powerful short squeeze, or the funds are preparing in advance for a serious fall. The data is provided by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Shares of China's largest steel companies, including Baoshan Iron and Steel, HBIS Co and Angang Steel, fell amid new U.S. tariffs that increased uncertainty in steel exports. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, steel prices also declined by more than 1%. Despite the limited impact on exports to the United States, overall trade tensions continue to rise.

According to the results of 2024, Russia turned out to be the country with the lowest unemployment among the G20. The figure was only 2.3%. The unemployment rate rose the most in Canada, and decreased in Brazil.

 

Jerome Powell's Speech Fails to Impress Currency Traders

The euro and pound responded in a rather unusual way to yesterday's comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who stated that the central bank sees no need to rush with interest rate adjustments. This reaffirmed the view that Fed policymakers will exercise patience before further cutting borrowing costs.Despite Powell's caution, the euro and pound strengthened, while the dollar lost ground. This could be due to today's inflation data, which many forecasts suggest may show weaker price pressures than previously expected.
"Since our policy position is now significantly less restrictive than it was before, and the economy remains strong, we do not need to rush to adjust our policy position," Powell said on Tuesday at a meeting of the Senate Banking Committee. "We know that cutting rates too quickly or too much can hinder progress in the fight against inflation," he said. "At the same time, reducing policy constraints too slowly or too little may unduly weaken economic activity and employment."

Traders mostly kept their rate expectations unchanged, suggesting Powell's remarks did not shift the outlook significantly. Powell's statements closely resembled his January comments, following the Fed's decision to leave rates unchanged.

In 2024, the Fed cut rates at three consecutive meetings, but policymakers have since signaled a pause until inflation declines further. The labor market remains a key factor in the Fed's cautious approach. Powell described the job market as "broadly balanced" and not a significant source of inflationary pressure. When asked whether the U.S. economy is experiencing a "soft landing," Powell declined to make a judgment.

The latest employment data painted a picture of a slowing but solid labor market. Employers added 143,000 jobs in January, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4%. Inflation, as measured by the Fed, remained above the 2.6% target for the end of 2024. Powell said inflation was "slightly higher" than the Central bank's 2% target.

Today's CPI report will be crucial for the dollar's next move. If inflation growth slows, the dollar could decline further. Powell hinted that inflation expectations remain anchored, but also acknowledged risks from Trump's new trade tariffs. The recent tariff hikes on Chinese goods, steel, and aluminum imports—as well as threats of additional tariffs on Canada and Mexico—could put upward pressure on inflation.

These measures could impact economic growth and labor market conditions.

As for the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers need to break above 1.0380 to target 1.0410. A move beyond 1.0410 could extend gains to 1.0440, but this would require support from large market players. The ultimate bullish target is 1.0470. 1.0340 is a crucial support level where large buyers may step in. If no buying interest appears, further declines could lead to a retest of 1.0310 or even 1.0280 for potential long positions.

As for the current technical picture of GBP/USD, pound buyers need to break above 1.2460 to aim for 1.2505. A breakout beyond 1.2505 will be challenging, but the next target would be 1.2545. Bears will attempt to regain control at 1.2415. A break below 1.2415 could seriously weaken bullish momentum, leading GBP/USD toward 1.2375 and possibly 1.2330.
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The main events by the morning: February 13

The UK economy grew by 0.1% in the fourth quarter. This exceeded forecasts for a 0.1% reduction. Growth was zero in the third quarter. The Bank of England lowered its base rate to 4.5% amid weak growth and lower inflation. Inflation is expected to increase to 3.7% by the end of 2025, but a return to the 2% target is projected by 2027. The GDP growth forecast for 2023 has been lowered to 0.75%.

In January, the US budget deficit increased by $128.64 billion, while in December it increased by $86.732 billion. Analysts had expected an increase of $88.1 billion. In the first third of the fiscal year, the deficit reached a record $840 billion due to increased spending on healthcare, social security, payments to veterans and interest on the national debt.

After the conversation with Putin, Trump hinted at the possibility of a meeting between the leaders of the two countries. He noted that a personal meeting with the Russian president could take place «in the not too distant future.» However, the exact date has not yet been determined. Trump also stated that he did not consider it appropriate for Ukraine to join NATO.

OPEC adjusted its forecast for non-OPEC+ oil production for 2025 to 54.21 million barrels per day from the previous 54.28 million. In 2024, production amounted to 53.2 million, and in 2026 it is expected to increase to 55.21 million. The forecast of global demand has been maintained: in 2025 it will reach 105.2 million barrels per day, compared with 103.75 million in 2024, and in 2026 it will grow to 106.63 million.

Trump allowed American businessmen to bribe foreign officials. He signed a decree temporarily suspending the Law on Combating Corruption Abroad, which has been in force for almost 50 years. The Ministry of Justice has been instructed to review cases related to the law and prepare new instructions in 180 days. The decision is explained by the desire to strengthen the position of American companies in the global market and increase their competitiveness.
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The main events by the morning: February 17

Japan's economy is showing signs of stagnation. By the end of 2024, the country's GDP growth was only 0.1%, which is significantly lower than in 2023, when the economy grew by 1.5%. Nominal GDP, reflecting the size of the economy at current prices, reached 609.29 trillion yen (about $4 trillion), exceeding the 600 trillion yen mark for the first time in history.

The telephone conversation between Putin and Trump on February 12 had a positive impact on the stock markets of Russia and Europe. Following the results of the week that ended on the day of the negotiations, European equity funds raised a record $2.5 billion, the highest volume in the last two years. The Russian market also showed growth on the back of this news.

Electronics imports to Russia showed a decrease for the first time in two years. According to market participants, the reduction was up to 3%. Previously, a similar trend was observed only in 2014 and 2022. Experts attribute this to difficulties in making payments to China and the high key interest rate. Experts predict that in 2025, the reduction in imports will continue, especially in the segment of household appliances, where the drop may reach 30%.

The reforms initiated by Donald Trump and Elon Musk have led to a sharp increase in unemployment in the US capital. Since the Republicans came to power, about 4,000 Washington residents, which is about 0.5% of the city's population, have applied for unemployment benefits. The reason was the reduction of the government staff and the introduction of an early retirement program through a «buyout.»

The United States and Belarus are preparing a «grand bargain» that will include the lifting of sanctions. According to the terms of the deal, Minsk releases «a large number of political prisoners» and Washington lifts sanctions. In recent months, Lukashenko has already granted amnesty to more than 200 people who were convicted after the protests in Belarus in 2020.

 

Gold prices rise amid escalating trade disputes

On Monday, gold prices rose slightly after a sharp decline at the end of last week. The current quote for spot gold is $2,898 per ounce. Despite the local weakening, the asset is still near record highs in the area of $2,960.

Interest in the precious metal remains due to its status as a «safe haven» amid ongoing uncertainty around trade tariffs and interest rate changes in the United States.

Over the past two weeks, gold has repeatedly updated its record values. The rise in prices for the precious metal was the result of increased interest from investors seeking to minimize risks. This happened after Donald Trump imposed 25% duties on steel and aluminum imports into the United States.

In addition, the head of the White House announced his intention to introduce additional tariffs in response to the actions of the country's leading economic partners. Despite this, such measures are expected no earlier than April.

 

Where Have Dollar Buyers Gone?

Yesterday, President Donald Trump's statements about new trade tariffs were largely ignored by dollar buyers. However, risk-asset sellers were also notably absent.

During his speech, Trump announced that he would likely impose tariffs on imported cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceutical products, with rates expected to be around 25%. These tariffs are likely to take effect on April 2. While such a move would escalate the ongoing trade war, the market showed little reaction.

It is worth recalling that Trump had previously announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, set to take effect in March. "I'll probably tell you on April 2, but it's going to be somewhere around 25%," Trump told reporters at his Mar-a-Lago club when asked about the planned auto tariffs.

Regarding tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, Trump stated: "The tariffs will be 25% or higher, and they will increase significantly over the year." He explained that he wants to give companies time to adjust before introducing new import taxes. "Let companies come to the United States and open their factories here, and then there won't be any tariffs," Trump added.

Impact on the Auto Industry
Experts warn that new auto tariffs could have widespread consequences for the industry. Last year, around 8 million cars and light trucks were imported into the US, accounting for nearly half of all car sales.

Major European automakers, including Volkswagen AG, as well as Asian manufacturers like Hyundai Motor Co., will likely be among the hardest hit.

Trump did not specify whether these measures would target specific countries or apply to all imported vehicles. It is also unclear whether cars produced under free trade agreements with Canada and Mexico would be exempt.

For Mexico and South Korea, where auto exports to the US make up 2.4% and 1.8% of GDP, respectively, Trump's new tariffs pose a serious economic challenge.

Impact on the Semiconductor Sector
In the semiconductor sector, Malaysia and Singapore are expected to be among the hardest-hit nations. Malaysia, the sixth-largest exporter of semiconductors, recorded $136 billion in semiconductor exports in 2024.

Representatives from Samsung Electronics Co. and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. declined to comment on the new tariffs.

Potential Retaliatory Measures
Recently, US trading partners have vowed to respond swiftly to Trump's tariffs, warning that they will target politically sensitive US-made goods.

A top European Union trade official is expected to travel to Washington this week for last-ditch talks aimed at avoiding the April tariffs. However, Trump has made it clear that no country will be able to negotiate its way out of the tariffs if he considers trade relations to be imbalanced.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook
Right now, EUR/USD buyers need to push the price above 1.0475. This will open the way for a test of 1.0510. Breaking above this level could lead to an advance toward 1.0554, though achieving this without support from major players will be challenging. The long-term target remains 1.0590.

If the pair declines, serious buying interest is expected around 1.0430. If buyers fail to emerge at that level, a drop to 1.0400 or even 1.0370 could be on the horizon.

GBP/USD Technical Outlook
For GBP/USD buyers, the key level to break is 1.2630. Successfully overcoming this resistance could lead to a test of 1.2665, though further gains beyond this point would be difficult. The final target stands at 1.2690.

If the pair falls, bears will attempt to regain control at 1.2590. A break below this range would seriously weaken bullish positions, pushing GBP/USD toward 1.2550, with a potential move down to 1.2515.

 

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold continues its strong upward momentum, reaching a new all-time high above $2,950. The surge is driven by concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump's proposed tariffs could lead to a global trade war, increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, the decline in U.S. Treasury yields is further supporting bullish sentiment in the gold market.

The FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday confirmed expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its policy pause for an extended period. While this could deter traders from opening new positions, potentially limiting gold's gains, the overall fundamental backdrop remains bullish, suggesting that the path of least resistance for XAU/USD is still upward.

Technical Outlook for Gold (XAU/USD)

From a technical perspective, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trading above 70, indicating overbought conditions and calling for caution among bulls. This suggests that gold prices could consolidate within a weekly range before attempting another move higher.

The short-term trend remains bullish, and a sustained break above the $2,945–2,950 resistance zone could pave the way for further gains.

Key Support and Resistance Levels:

Immediate support is located at $2,930, followed by yesterday's low at $2,918 and the psychological level of $2,900.

A break below $2,900 could lead to deeper corrective declines towards $2,880, with further downward potential extending to the $2,860–2,855 region and the $2,834 support level.

If selling pressure intensifies, gold could drop toward $2,815, followed by $2,800 and the critical support zone at $2,785–2,784.

On the other hand, a clear breakout above $2,950 would confirm bullish momentum, potentially driving gold prices toward $3,000 and beyond in the coming sessions.

 

The main events by the morning: February 21

Under the chancellorship of Olaf Scholz, Germany's share in world trade dropped to a record 6.3%. The indicator fell even despite the growth of exports to 1.59 trillion euros in 2022. The trade turnover in 2023 amounted to 2.87 trillion euros, becoming the lowest during his reign. The political crisis and the collapse of the coalition have increased economic uncertainty. Polls predict the victory of the opposition in the elections.

Trump said his administration has implemented a policy of reciprocal duties, protecting American manufacturers and reducing the trade deficit. According to him, these measures will bring billions of dollars to the budget. He also noted the economic successes in the first weeks of work and stressed the importance of protecting workers and combating illegal migration to strengthen the US economy.

The G7 countries have changed their decision regarding the tightening of the ceiling on Russian oil prices. The original version of the communique, timed to coincide with three years since the beginning of the CBO, was significantly softened. The final document stresses that «reliable security guarantees and Ukraine's integration into the EU will be crucial to ensure lasting peace that prevents future aggression.» In addition, the G7 no longer qualifies Russia's actions as «illegal.»

Secretary of State Rubio noted that the United States should maintain relations with Russia, regardless of whether they agree with its actions. He criticized the Biden administration for losing contact with Russia, which, according to him, was not observed even at the height of the 20th century Cold War. Rubio also added that the future meeting between Putin and Trump will depend on the settlement process at lower levels.

The return of foreign automakers to Russia should not cause great difficulties. According to sources, Renault, Nissan, Hyundai, Mercedes and Ford retained the buyback option, which will allow them to easily restore their representative offices in the country. Nevertheless, it is expected that companies wishing to return will be subject to strict localization requirements and the creation of new production facilities.

 

Bitcoin takes its time: new records still ahead?

According to analysts, Bitcoin is currently in a relatively stable state but is in no hurry to reach new highs. This has caused concern among market participants, though some experts see no reason for alarm.

In previous growth cycles, major news events and market anticipation played a key role in BTC rise. In 2023–2024, the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the upcoming halving fueled optimism among traders and investors. Experts at Crypto Summit said that Bitcoin needed a trigger for a new bull rally.

At the moment, however, there are no major events that could spark a rapid surge. As a result, the market remains cautious, trading within a wide range while waiting for the next significant catalyst. Experts predict that in the first half of 2025, BTC is likely to continue fluctuating between $90,000 and $110,000, with a new all-time high not expected before the second half of the year.

On January 20, BTC hit its first peak of the year at $109,114. However, it is currently experiencing some challenges. On February 24, it opened with a decline, trading around $95,360. Over the past 24 hours, BTC reached a low of $95,270 and a high of $96,594.

Last week, BTC had reason to celebrate a milestone. On February 19, 2021, BTC's market capitalization surpassed $1 trillion for the first time. Since then, it has nearly doubled, now standing at $1.9 trillion. However, these past achievements have had little effect on Bitcoin's current performance, as the leading digital asset remains below $100,000.

Late on Wednesday, February 19, Bitcoin continued trading sideways. A balance between bullish and bearish pressure has been keeping it in a tight range since early February 2025. Over the past two weeks, BTC has been hovering below $100,000. Technical and on-chain data suggests that it may stay below this key level for a while.

The BTC technical chart indicates a strengthening bearish scenario. The relative strength index (RSI) also signals downward pressure. Currently, the RSI is at 44.29, below the neutral 50-point mark.

An RSI reading of 44.29 suggests that selling pressure is stronger than buying interest but has not yet reached oversold territory (30 points). This leaves room for a deeper decline or potential consolidation before a trend reversal.

BTC at crossroads: drop to $90,000 or break above $100,000?

Bitcoin is now trading slightly below the $99,805 resistance level. If selling pressure increases, BTC risks breaking out of its narrow range to the downside, potentially falling below $90,000 and touching $89,434.

On the other hand, renewed bullish momentum could reverse the bearish trend. In that case, BTC may break through $99,805 and surpass the barrier of $100,000. If the currency gains momentum from this level, it could reach its all-time high of $109,350.

However, for a breakout to happen, Bitcoin needs a strong catalyst, which is currently lacking. Many traders agree that the cryptocurrency needs a major event or a high-profile development to attract investors again.

US monetary policy is one more key factor for BTC. Analysts believe that a Federal Reserve rate cut would increase the appeal of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Experts at TEHNOBIT note that a moderate BTC rally could follow an interest rate cut by the Fed but believe this is unlikely before the regulator's June meeting.

Experts have differing opinions on the timing of the Fed's next moves. Some expect a significant rate cut by the end of 2025, while others anticipate the first changes by summer. If monetary easing coincides with major institutional deals or government initiatives, Bitcoin's growth could accelerate.

Analysts also highlight the connection between the tech sector and the crypto market. Any major developments—especially in artificial intelligence—could boost the entire industry. TEHNOBIT emphasizes that if investors identify a rapidly growing niche in AI, the entire sector will gain momentum, and cryptocurrencies will follow.

Preliminary forecasts suggest that BTC will remain in a broad trading range until mid-2025 without setting new all-time highs. However, market participants are waiting for potential catalysts: major crypto industry news, Fed policy shifts, and technological breakthroughs. If all these factors align, BTC could reach a new record high in the second half of 2025.