Forex Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for September 23 – 27, 2024
EUR/USD: Rate Drops, Dollar Falls

● The United States Federal Reserve System (Fed) announced its decision on the benchmark interest rate following the two-day meeting held on September 17-18. The intrigue lay in the rate cut step—whether it would be the standard 25 basis points (bps) or twice as much. On the eve of the meeting, according to market expectations, the probability of a 25 bps decrease was 45%, and a 50 bps decrease was 55%. As a result, for the first time in four years, the regulator opted to reduce the rate by half a percent immediately: from the highest in 23 years of 5.50% to 5.00%.
● It should be noted that at the beginning of the easing of monetary policy (QE), such a large rate cut was applied by the Federal Reserve relatively rarely and only in critical situations. For example, in this century, this occurred in 2001 (following the attack on the World Trade Center in New York), in 2007 (the onset of the economic crisis), and in 2020 (the COVID-19 pandemic). However, such a force majeure event is not currently observed, so why did the American central bank take this step?
Several analysts explain this by stating that the Fed was delayed in lowering the rate in July and is now striving to catch up. (Recall that several members of the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] were ready to start cutting rates as early as mid-summer.) Fed Chair Jerome Powell did not agree with the version of a delay. On the other hand, he acknowledged that if the labor market data in July had been released before rather than after the FOMC meeting, the decision could have been different.
The current September meeting was also notable because, for the first time since 2005, the Fed's decision was not unanimous. One of the 12 FOMC members, Michelle Bowman, publicly advocated for a 25 bps rate cut instead of 50 bps.
● The Fed's updated macroeconomic forecasts, following the September 17-18 meeting, suggest a faster decline in inflation and higher unemployment rates. Jerome Powell referred to this as a shift in the balance of risks.
According to the new forecast, inflation (PCE index) this year will be 2.3% (June forecast was 2.6%), next year – 2.1% (June was 2.3%), and finally in 2026, inflation will decrease to the target of 2.0% (unchanged). In 2027 and beyond, inflation rates will remain at the target level.
As for the unemployment forecast in the United States, it has been raised for 2024 from 4.0% to 4.4%, in 2025 it is expected to remain at 4.4% (June was 4.2%), and in 2026 to decrease to 4.3% (June was 4.1%). The Fed expects that starting in 2027 and onward, unemployment will hold steady at 4.2%.
The forecast for US GDP growth in 2024 has been lowered from 2.1% to 2.0%, with the same figure planned for 2025-2027, which is overall above the long-term trend of 1.8%.
● The regulator also announced that interest rate cuts will continue. However, due to changes in inflation and labor market forecasts, the rate outlook has been significantly softened. Thus, the Fed plans to see the rate at 4.5% by the end of the year (i.e., possibly two more cuts: in November and December by 25 bps each). In the one-year perspective, the rate is expected to be 3.4%, and then 2.9%.
It is important to understand that these are only forecasts, which can (and will) change depending on the geopolitical situation in the world and the internal situation in the United States. For example, experts expect a serious increase in the budget deficit in the event of Donald Trump coming to the White House. This could seriously slow the pace of QE.
● Regarding the euro, the pan-European currency has recently been supported by statements from high-ranking EU officials. For example, ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos stated last week that “we have left the door completely open, […] and in December we will have more information than in October.” These words are an obvious hint that the regulator does not intend to make any rate decisions before December. ECB Governing Council member and Governor of the Bank of Lithuania, Gediminas Šimkus, also tempered market expectations by stating on Tuesday, September 17, that “the probability of a rate cut in October is very low.” “In October, we will not have much new data. And the economy is developing according to forecasts,” he added.
Currently, the ECB's key interest rate stands at 3.65%. Thus, if the difference between the Fed's and the ECB's (and other central banks') interest rates narrows by the end of this year and throughout the next year, it will put pressure on the dollar. Meanwhile, the market reaction to the Fed's September decision was quite subdued. Of course, forecasts for further rate cuts helped risk assets. The stock indices S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq continued to rise, and leading cryptocurrencies improved their positions. Conversely, the Dollar Index (DXY) fell. The EUR/USD pair, being inversely correlated with it, first rose to 1.1188, then fell to 1.1080, showing maximum weekly volatility of 108 points. Then the fluctuations began to diminish, the waves gradually subsided, and the pair ended the workweek at 1.1162.
● Expert opinions regarding EUR/USD's behaviour in the near term are divided as follows: only 20% of analysts voted for a strengthening dollar and a decline in the pair, 65% for its growth, and another 15% took a neutral position. However, when moving to a medium-term forecast, the picture changes sharply. Here, 65% are on the side of the US currency, predicting the pair to fall below 1.1000. Supporters of the euro in this time horizon are only 20%, while 15% still remain neutral, refusing to make forecasts. In technical analysis on the D1 chart, all 100% of trend indicators and oscillators are colored green, although a quarter of the latter are signalling overbought conditions. The nearest support for the pair is located in the zone 1.1135-1.1150, then 1.1100, 1.1000-1.1025, 1.0880-1.0910, 1.0780-1.0805, 1.0725, 1.0665-1.0680, 1.0600-1.0620. Resistance zones are in the regions of 1.1185-1.1200, 1.1275, 1.1385, 1.1485-1.1505, 1.1670-1.1690, and 1.1875-1.1905.
● This upcoming week, the dynamics of major dollar pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY may be significantly influenced by the following events. On Monday, September 23, preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data will be released for various sectors of the economies of Germany, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Following a brief pause in the flow of important economic news, on Thursday, September 26, the US GDP data for the second quarter and the number of initial jobless claims in the country will be published. Additionally, scheduled for this day are the hearing of the inflation report in the UK Parliament and a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. At the very end of the workweek, on Friday, September 27, inflation data for the Tokyo region (Japan) will be released. Moreover, on this day, we will receive another set of inflation statistics from the United States in the form of the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Traders dealing with yen pairs should also note that Monday, September 23, is a holiday in Japan, as the country observes the Autumnal Equinox Day.
GBP/USD: Rate Unchanged, Pound Rises
● Last week, two more central bank meetings took place: the Bank of England (BoE) on Thursday, September 19, and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on Friday, September 20. As a result of the former, the British pound against the US dollar reached its highest level in the last 2.5 years. This occurred against the backdrop of the British regulator's decision to keep the key interest rate at the current level of 5.00% and to refrain from hasty measures to reduce it. Consequently, after the announcement of this decision, the GBP/USD pair rose to $1.3339 for the first time since March 2022.
● Despite the decline in UK government bond yields, markets have quickly adjusted their forecasts regarding further easing of monetary policy by the Bank of England (BoE). Currently, according to the median forecast, a rate reduction of 42 basis points is expected by the end of December, compared to the 50 basis points predicted before the last meeting. (Although, it is clear that this adjustment is minor and quite conditional). Macro strategists from the banking group Mizuho International believe that rate cuts will occur slowly, possibly once per quarter. In their view, against this backdrop, GBP/USD has the potential for further growth and could break the 1.3400 level as early as the beginning of October, with the pair reaching $1.4000 by the end of next year, 2025.
Thus, the pound has become the most successful currency among the G10 countries this year. Investors, although expecting a policy easing by the Bank of England in November, are confident that inflationary pressure in the country will remain sufficiently high, supporting relatively elevated interest rates compared to other economies.
USD/JPY: Rate Unchanged, Yen Falls
● Similarly to the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to keep its key interest rate at the same level during its meeting. This decision was anticipated by market participants. However, while the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England are focused on the pace of rate cuts, markets expect the Japanese regulator to do the opposite – raise rates. Nonetheless, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated during the press conference following the meeting that he does not plan to accelerate this process. Rates were already increased in March and July of this year, and now it is time to pause and assess the results achieved. Ueda emphasized that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise rates if economic and inflation indicators meet forecasts. However, the weakening of inflationary pressures due to the yen's softness provides the bank with the opportunity to adopt a more cautious approach to future decisions.
● After this statement, the Japanese yen sharply sold off, with the USD/JPY pair reaching a local high of 144.49. Futures on 10-year Japanese government bonds rose by nearly 30 basis points, and the Topix index, reflecting the state of Japan's stock market, showed a 1% increase.
Analysts around the world shared their opinions on the potential consequences of the BoJ's decisions. Experts from Saxo Markets write that “there is no sense of urgency in further normalization from the Bank of Japan. As long as Ueda maintains the same tone, Japanese stocks will enjoy the situation created by the sharp rate cut by the Fed.” In turn, Sumitomo Mitsui Bank believes that the likelihood of rate hikes in December remains low, as the weak yen supports the stock market, which stimulates wage growth.
CRYPTOCURRENCIES: "Bitcoin – the Best Buy in the World"
● Recently, Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of the crypto exchange BitMEX, compared the consequences of the Fed's interest rate cut for the US economy to the effect of a "sugar high," which can trigger a wave effect and a short-term upward rally. And the rate was cut, immediately by 50 basis points. Risk assets immediately experienced the promised high. The stock indices S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq went up, followed by digital assets. To say it was a surge, a jump, or a rally would be an exaggeration. But, according to Hayes, "this is the calm before the storm." "Usually, it goes like this," he writes, "first there is an initial reaction, and the real reaction comes by the close of traditional financial markets on Friday, after which cryptocurrencies follow them—up or down—over the weekend." However, since this review is being written on Friday, we cannot yet verify the accuracy or inaccuracy of BitMEX's co-founder’s words.
● According to Arthur Hayes, the rate cuts amid the growing issuance of US dollars and increased government spending are a mistake for the global financial system but will allow cryptocurrencies to become more sought after by investors, as their yields will rise.
At BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company, it was noted that although it is difficult for investors to analyze cryptocurrencies compared to traditional assets, Bitcoin has nevertheless become a "safe haven" for many amid rising geopolitical tensions. BlackRock strategists note that the leading cryptocurrency could become an effective tool for protection against the ongoing devaluation of the US dollar and global financial risks. Additionally, according to their forecast, as BTC is adopted "as a global monetary alternative," its correlation with US company stocks and dependence on the Fed's rate will gradually decrease.
● Investment strategist and author of the bestseller "Broken Money," Lyn Alden, believes that the adoption of cryptocurrencies in society is not just fast, but rapid. And if Bitcoin remains the leader among digital assets and is considered a reliable store of value, its price in the next ten to eleven years could reach $1 million per coin.
Alden agreed with Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood's forecast that the price of digital gold could rise to $1.5 million. However, according to the specialist, the timeframes forecasted by Wood are too aggressive. The head of Ark Invest believes that Bitcoin will reach values with six zeros as early as six years from now, by 2030. Alden, however, cites 2035 as the most likely date.
"Not buying bitcoins at this stage would be a crime," declares the author of Broken Money. According to her, "now bitcoin is the best buy on the global market, as this asset has long-term potential." Lyn Alden is confident that in the future, Bitcoin will surpass physical gold. (For reference: the market capitalization of this precious metal currently amounts to about $17 trillion, Bitcoin – $1.17 trillion, that is, 14.5 times less.)
● Let us recall that recently, Jack Dorsey, co-founder and former CEO of Twitter, made a similar statement, suggesting that BTC would reach $1 million by 2030. However, the most impressive forecast was given by MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor, who stated that Bitcoin will soon increase in price … by 70 (!) times – to $3.85 million. In the long term, according to this billionaire, digital gold could rise to $13 million. However, this is expected to happen only by 2045. By 2050, Bitcoin's market capitalization will amount to 13% of the entire global capital. (For reference: currently, this figure stands at 0.1%).
● Returning from the year 2050 to 2024, let us highlight the forecast of WeRate co-founder Quinten Francois. His data indicate the imminent start of a bull rally. “The average Bitcoin cycle begins approximately 170 days after the halving, and the peak forms after 480 days,” he writes. Based on this, there is not much time left before the rally begins—the surge, according to Quinten Francois's chart, is expected to start on Tuesday, October 8. The analyst also believes that thanks to the Fed's rate decision, there is a possibility that BTC will quickly rise above $64,500. Consequently, during October-November, the coin's price could increase by at least 46%, reaching $90,000-95,000.
● A similar forecast was given by the CIO and founder of MN Trading Consultancy Michael van de Poppe. According to him, the growth of global liquidity will become the key catalyst for the next bull cycle in the digital market. “Cryptocurrencies and commodities are extremely undervalued,” writes van de Poppe, “and it is quite likely that they will enter a 10-year bull market. I expect significant growth from these two asset classes.” According to the expert, the leading cryptocurrency is already ready to rise to $90,000.
As a key support level for Bitcoin, Michael van de Poppe named $58,000. The probability of the price falling below $55,000, according to him, is practically zero. It is worth noting that earlier in September, ARK Invest analysts identified $52,000 and $46,000 as key levels. Meanwhile, the aforementioned Quinten Francois from WeRate believes that it is important for the asset to maintain positions above the critically important zone of $59,000.
● The easing of monetary policy by the Fed and other central banks should also help altcoins. According to analyst Vladimir Cohen, liquidity began to leave this sector in April, which is why fear reigned during the summer. However, the trend has now reversed, and reaching a historical market capitalization peak of $1.1 trillion is just a matter of time. A large amount of liquidity is expected to flow into this market due to the central banks' policy loosening. Furthermore, according to the specialist, some altcoins will demonstrate growth of thousands of percent, while others will ultimately die out. Cohen believes that removing coins that do not offer practical value will play a positive role, as it will make this segment more transparent and liquid.
● Vladimir Cohen also noted that altcoin holders have currently shifted to a long-term holding strategy, ready to endure temporary declines in value while anticipating a future rally. A similar trend is being observed with bitcoin by analysts at CryptoQuant. The available supply of bitcoin is decreasing as users withdraw coins for long-term holding without intending to sell. "Selling pressure is decreasing as fewer coins are available for trading. Some traders are depositing funds into derivative platforms to open long positions, betting on price growth," write the CryptoQuant analysts. However, they also believe that the BTC price is unlikely to undergo significant changes in the short term.
● As of the time of writing, on the evening of Friday, September 20, following the US Fed meeting, the BTC/USD pair moved upwards and is trading around the $62,840 zone. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has risen slightly to $2.19 trillion (compared to $2.10 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has also increased from 32 to 54 points, moving from the Fear zone into the Neutral zone.
NordFX Analytical Group
Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

 

CryptoNews





– According to Bloomberg, the correlation between the cryptocurrency market and the US stock market has reached near-record levels. This occurred following the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower the key interest rate at its meeting on 17-18 September. The 40-day correlation coefficient between the 100 largest cryptocurrencies and the S&P 500 index stands at approximately 0.67. A higher value (0.72) was reached only once, during Q2 2022.

Following the start of the Federal Reserve’s monetary easing, US stock indices (S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq) hit new highs, and on 23 September, bitcoin reached $64,765. Such a high direct correlation indicates that cryptocurrency prices are heavily dependent on macroeconomic indicators and the actions of the Federal Reserve.

Political factors also undoubtedly influence the cryptocurrency market. For instance, the positive trend in bitcoin and leading altcoins in recent days was supported by a statement from Vice President Kamala Harris, who said that, if elected President of the United States, she would promote increased investment in AI technologies and the cryptocurrency sector. Some experts have called Harris’s statement “encouraging” and “an important event for crypto and blockchain technologies.” However, others, such as venture capitalist Nic Carter, expressed the opposite view, claiming that Harris’s words are politically motivated and “mean nothing.”


– Charles Hoskinson, the founder of Cardano and co-founder of Ethereum, believes that none of the US presidential candidates has a sufficient understanding of cryptocurrencies. For this reason, in Hoskinson's view, they will be unable to create favourable conditions for industry companies in the US. Donald Trump’s record-high staff turnover will prevent him from bringing the right people into government to foster the development of digital assets. Meanwhile, if Kamala Harris wins, she will continue Joe Biden’s anti-cryptocurrency policies. Hoskinson believes that local elections are far more important, as crypto companies can work more closely and effectively with senators.


– The Chinese government imposed a total ban on cryptocurrencies back in 2021. Beijing strictly limited the use of digital assets, prohibiting offshore exchanges from offering their services in the country. Authorities also banned all forms of cryptocurrency mining. Despite this, bitcoin miners from China still control a significant share of the global market. According to Ki Young Ju, the founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, over 55% of bitcoin’s hashrate is under the control of Chinese mining pools.

“Chinese mining pools manage 55% of the network, while American pools account for around 40%. US pools mainly serve institutional miners, whereas Chinese pools cater to smaller miners from Asia,” stated Ki Young Ju. Given this situation, the Chinese authorities’ stance on cryptocurrency could become even stricter. In 2025, the government plans to introduce amendments to its anti-money laundering (AML) regulations, extending them to cryptocurrency transactions.


– Analysts at 10x Research have identified two catalysts for a sharp rise in bitcoin. In their view, the trigger for a bull rally will be the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts and the upcoming payments to creditors of the bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX. "The expected inflow of $5-8 billion will encourage investors," the experts believe.

Moreover, they suggest that "there is a chance of a sharp, ‘juicy’ rise in cryptocurrency, as the Federal Reserve appears to have raised the S&P 500 level at which it will intervene to protect investors, signalling the potential for further rate cuts. As a result, many investors are likely to reposition their portfolios into riskier assets by 2025," states the 10x Research report.

The analysts also point out that, historically, bitcoin has shown significant growth from October to March, and a similar trend could repeat, considering the previous market cycles of 2021 and 2017.


– According to Bernstein, there are as many as five reasons behind bitcoin's growth. 1. Federal Reserve rate cuts and inflation hedging. Analysts note that, like gold, bitcoin becomes more attractive during times of fiscal excess, especially when US debt reaches $35 trillion. Since the beginning of the year, bitcoin has risen by 45%, compared to gold's 27% increase. 2. Growing bipartisan support for cryptocurrencies, accompanied by statements from Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. 3. The popularity of exchange-traded bitcoin ETFs. “Over the past 10 days, inflows into bitcoin ETFs have reached $800 million, despite volatile price movements,” Bernstein notes. The company expects that more banks, like Morgan Stanley, will also launch bitcoin ETFs, leading to further capital inflows. 4. Stability among miners after the April halving. According to Bernstein, network hashrate has recovered, indicating miner resilience, which further strengthens bitcoin's foundation. 5. Decreased selling pressure. Large sales of bitcoin by the US and German governments, as well as payments to Mt. Gox clients, have been absorbed by the market. Additionally, MicroStrategy has managed to raise $2.1 billion to purchase the leading cryptocurrency, bringing its holdings to 252,220 BTC, or 1.3% of the total supply.


– Legendary trader, analyst, and head of Factor LLC, Peter Brandt, believes that in 2025, the bitcoin-to-gold ratio could rise by more than 400%. To justify his highly optimistic forecast, Brandt refers to a classic technical model – the "inverse head and shoulders." The pattern forms below resistance, known as the neckline. In theory, when resistance is broken, accompanied by rising trading volumes, the price increases by the maximum distance between the neckline and the deepest point of the head.

Applied to the BTC/GLD chart, the price of 1 bitcoin could reach the price of 123 ounces of gold as early as 2025, which is a 400% increase compared to 24 ounces as of 22 September 2024. This means that if physical gold remains at its current level of $2,630, the price of digital gold, according to Brandt’s theory, could soar to over $323,000. Supporting the idea that bitcoin could outperform the precious metal is its rapid adoption by institutional investors, as well as the launch of exchange-traded BTC ETFs, which have strengthened the asset's presence in their portfolios.


– One of the early bitcoin developers, Jeff Garzik, has created the Hemi Network protocol to connect the Bitcoin and Ethereum blockchains through tunnels. Cross-chain protocols (bridges) already exist and also serve to transfer assets between incompatible networks. However, the Hemi team claims that tunnels create a unique environment, allowing Bitcoin and Ethereum to "coexist" while avoiding the vulnerabilities inherent to bridges. Currently, the Hemi Network test is live, with the mainnet launch scheduled for Q4 of this year.


– Speaking at the TOKEN-2049 conference in Singapore, Jess Houlgrave, CEO of fintech company Reown (formerly WalletConnect), stated that in six years, cryptocurrency wallets will completely disappear and transform into "life centres." According to her, these will become universal digital archives where users can store not only digital assets but also a wide range of documents, from medical records to educational diplomas. The company’s head noted that the security of such archives will become much more reliable in a few years, allowing users to use them without fear of hacking.


– A few days ago, UFC fighter Renato Moicano called on the public to pay more attention to the first cryptocurrency. The Brazilian has repeatedly stated that bitcoin has long-term potential, serves as an alternative to traditional money, and can protect citizens from rising inflation. Given the economic uncertainty, including concerns around the US dollar, digital gold is becoming the best option for preserving savings. "Bitcoin is not just an investment," Renato Moicano said. "It's a way of life." (It’s worth noting that after his victory at UFC 300, the fighter publicly demanded that his reward be paid in BTC.)


– Macroeconomist Raoul Pal believes that everything is aligned for bitcoin's price to soar to $200,000 or more by the beginning of next year. In a video posted on his Real Vision channel, the former Goldman Sachs executive explained that the leading cryptocurrency tends to rise and fall in tandem with global liquidity cycles. He presented a chart of the GMI (Global Macro Investor) index, which shows an increase in global liquidity over the next three months, and analysed how this will impact BTC's price.

Pal also shared another chart showing that BTC is precisely repeating its price movement from January 2023 to March 2024, when the price surged by approximately 350% from $16,500 to $74,000. According to the economist, "Bitcoin is repeating what it did last year, almost exactly. So, we have the macro overlay, the Fed will continue [easing], other central banks will get involved as well. We have seasonality and the global liquidity cycle..." "This has to happen now," Raoul Pal concludes.

 

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for September 30 – October 04, 2024
EUR/USD: Midpoint of the 'Dull Period'
● In the next part of the review, we will discuss how one crypto analyst used the term "dull period" in relation to the BTC/USD chart. The EUR/USD chart looks even more uneventful. While from 20 August until today, the pair fluctuated within the 1.1000-1.1200 range, last week it narrowed by another 50%, from 200 points to 100, settling in the 1.1100-1.1200 range. It appears the market has already priced in the forecasts for the US Federal Reserve rate cut, the actual moment of the cut on 17-18 September, and expectations regarding future monetary policy from both the US and European Central Banks.
● Of course, the pair's dynamics were influenced by events listed in the economic calendar. On Monday, 23 September, preliminary data on business activity (PMI) across various sectors of the economies of Germany, the Eurozone, and the US were released. On the European side of the Atlantic, PMI figures were uniformly in the red, indicating that business activity in both the manufacturing and services sectors is declining. The data was especially disheartening for Germany’s manufacturing sector, the engine of the European economy. Not only did it fall below the threshold of 50 points, which separates progress from regression, but it also reached a low of 40.3 points. In the US, manufacturing PMI also declined, but not as dramatically as in Germany, dropping from 47.9 to 47.0 points. As for the American services sector, it remained firmly in the green zone, standing confidently at 55.4 points.
● The data released on Thursday, 26 September, also indicated an expansion of the US economy. While GDP growth in Q1 stood at 1.6%, by the end of Q2, this figure had risen to 3.0%. Alongside GDP growth, the labour market showed a degree of stability. Instead of the forecasted rise to 224K, the number of initial jobless claims for the week actually fell from 222K to 218K. On the same day, market participants closely listened to statements by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his ECB counterpart Christine Lagarde, but nothing new or sensational was announced.
As for inflation, a key indicator such as the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which reflects price changes for a fixed basket of consumer goods and services purchased by US residents, increased year-on-year from 2.6% to 2.7%. However, on a monthly basis, it fell from 0.2% to 0.1%. These figures were released on Friday, 27 September.
● Against the backdrop of this PCE decline, the EUR/USD bulls made another attempt to push the pair to 1.1202, but once again, they failed to hold their ground. The final note of the trading week sounded in the middle of the channel at 1.1163.
● Expert opinions on the short-term behaviour of EUR/USD are divided as follows. During this "dull period," 40% of analysts are voting for a stronger dollar and a decline in the pair, while the majority (60%) have taken a neutral stance, and none are predicting growth. However, in the medium term, the number of those expecting the pair to rise increases to 30%. In terms of technical analysis on D1, 80% of trend indicators recommend buying, while 20% suggest selling. The oscillators show a more mixed picture: 25% are green, 25% are red, and the remaining 50% are in a neutral grey zone. The nearest support levels for the pair are around 1.1100, followed by 1.1000-1.1025, 1.0880-1.0910, 1.0780-1.0805, 1.0725, 1.0665-1.0680, and 1.0600-1.0620. Resistance zones are found around 1.1185-1.1210, 1.1275, 1.1385, 1.1485-1.1505, 1.1670-1.1690, and 1.1875-1.1905.
● The upcoming week promises to be quite eventful, interesting, and volatile. On Monday, 30 September, preliminary data on consumer inflation (CPI) in Germany will be released. On the same day, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to give a speech. The following day, Tuesday, 1 October, the CPI figures for the Eurozone as a whole will be announced. Additionally, on 1 and 3 October, revised data on business activity (PMI) in various sectors of the US economy will be revealed. Furthermore, from 1 to 4 October, a wave of labour market statistics from the United States will flood in. The main focus will be on Friday, 4 October, when key figures such as the unemployment rate and the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP) will be published.
CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Is the 'Dull Period' Coming to an End?

● In terms of technical analysis patterns, the launch of BTC-ETFs earlier this year led to the formation of a "flagpole" on the total cryptocurrency market capitalisation chart. Then, starting from 13 March, the flag's "body" began to take shape in the form of a fairly wide descending channel. A nearly identical pattern appeared on the BTC/USD chart. Thus, the market capitalisation peaked on 13 March at $2.77 trillion, while bitcoin recorded its all-time high (ATH) of $73,743. Six and a half months have passed since then, and the current capitalisation stands at $2.32 trillion, with bitcoin’s weekly local high reaching $66,517.
● The research firm Glassnode believes that the market is stuck in a consolidation phase due to a lack of capital. Glassnode notes that short-term speculators, holding cryptocurrency for less than 155 days, are selling more coins than they are buying. On the other hand, CryptoQuant highlights that after the early August low, when the leading cryptocurrency dropped below $49,000, even short-term holders are now "in profit." Analysts point out that the risk of large-scale bitcoin sales is currently at its lowest level since the beginning of 2024. "Over the past six months, the number of people willing to sell bitcoin has dropped to a minimum," they write. "The sell-risk ratio, which sums up all realised profits and losses on the network per day and divides this by bitcoin's realised capitalisation, is now below 20,000. For comparison, during the March peak, this figure reached nearly 80,000."
● It is worth noting that the last time such an extended consolidation period was observed in the digital gold market was four years ago. It occurred after the end of a powerful bull rally in Q2 2019 and lasted until September 2020. Following this, there was a fivefold price increase, with bitcoin reaching a new ATH of $58,783. Drawing a parallel to that period, many market participants are now hoping for a similar surge after the current accumulation phase by buyers concludes.
The analyst known by the pseudonym PlanB has stated that the current consolidation suggests that another explosive price increase is only a matter of time. He also points out that similar "dull" periods occurred not only in 2019 but also earlier. After such phases, in 2013, 2017, and 2020, we witnessed significant price movements. PlanB further emphasised that throughout bitcoin's history, spanning 162 months, only 27 of them (about 16.7%) have shown growth, yet that growth amounted to hundreds of thousands of percent.
● Analysts at 10x Research have identified two catalysts for a sharp rise in bitcoin. In their view, the triggers for a bull rally will be the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts and the upcoming payouts to creditors of the bankrupt crypto exchange FTX. "The expected influx of $5-8 billion will excite investors," the experts suggest.
Moreover, they believe there is "a likelihood of a sharp, 'juicy' rise in cryptocurrency, as the Fed appears to have raised the level of the S&P 500 at which it will intervene to protect investors, signalling the possibility of further rate cuts. As a result, many investors will likely reposition their portfolios into risk assets by 2025," according to the 10x Research report.
● According to Bloomberg, following the Fed's rate cut at the 17-18 September meeting, the correlation between the crypto market and the US stock market neared a record high. The 40-day correlation coefficient between the 100 largest cryptocurrencies and the S&P 500 index reached approximately 0.67. (A higher mark of 0.72 was only achieved once, in Q2 2022). As a result, US stock indices (S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq) reached new highs, while bitcoin approached the upper boundary of the "flag body" pattern.
● While 10x Research identified two reasons for bitcoin’s potential growth, Bernstein has counted as many as five. 1. Fed Rate Cuts and Inflation Hedging: Analysts note that bitcoin, like gold, becomes more attractive during times of fiscal excess, especially as US debt approaches $35 trillion. Since the beginning of the year, bitcoin has risen by 45%, compared to gold's 27% increase. 2. Growing Bipartisan Support for Cryptocurrencies: This is highlighted by statements from both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, reflecting the increasing acceptance of crypto across political lines.
3. Popularity of Bitcoin ETFs: "In the past 10 days, inflows into bitcoin ETFs have reached $800 million, despite volatile price dynamics," Bernstein reports. The firm expects more banks, such as Morgan Stanley, to launch bitcoin ETFs, leading to further capital inflows. 4. Miner Stability After April's Halving: According to Bernstein, the network's hash power has recovered, indicating miner resilience and further strengthening bitcoin's fundamentals. 5. Decreased Selling Pressure: Large bitcoin sales by the US and German governments, as well as payouts to Mt. Gox creditors, have been absorbed by the market. Moreover, MicroStrategy has managed to raise $2.1 billion to purchase more bitcoin, bringing its holdings to 252,220 BTC, or 1.3% of the total supply.
● Bitget Research also highlights MicroStrategy's actions and the increased inflow of funds into bitcoin ETFs following the Fed's rate cuts. "This indicates that institutional players are optimistic about the market's prospects. With steady purchases, bitcoin is likely to break through previous highs," Bitget Research experts note. Additionally, they believe that the regulatory framework in the US is likely to undergo significant changes after the presidential elections in November, creating a favourable environment for investment in the crypto industry. Investor confidence in the market will grow, which will facilitate capital inflow and accumulation.
● Undoubtedly, political factors have a significant impact on the crypto market. Recently, the positive dynamics of bitcoin and leading altcoins were supported by a statement from Vice President Kamala Harris, who said that if she wins the US presidential election, she will promote increased investment in AI technologies and the cryptocurrency sector. Some experts have called Harris’s statement "encouraging" and "an important event for crypto and blockchain technologies." However, others, such as venture capitalist Nic Carter, have expressed the opposite view, claiming that Harris's words are politically motivated and "mean nothing." Charles Hoskinson, founder of Cardano and co-founder of Ethereum, also believes that none of the US presidential candidates will be able to create favourable conditions for the industry, as they lack the necessary knowledge of cryptocurrencies.
● Macroeconomist Raoul Pal expects bitcoin's price to soar to $200,000 or more by the start of next year. He identifies the primary driver for this as the easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks. In a video posted on his Real Vision channel, the former Goldman Sachs executive explained that the leading cryptocurrency tends to rise and fall along with global liquidity cycles. He presented a chart of the GMI (Global Macro Investor) index, which reflects an increase in global liquidity over the next three months, and analysed how this would impact BTC's price.
Pal also prepared another chart showing that BTC is exactly replicating its price movement from January 2023 to March 2024, when the price surged by approximately 350%, from $16,500 to nearly $74,000. According to the economist, "bitcoin is repeating what it did last year, almost exactly. So, we have the macro-overlay, the Fed will continue [easing], other central banks will also get involved. We have seasonality and the global liquidity cycle..." "This should happen now," Raoul Pal concludes. (The seasonal factor was also noted by analysts at 10x Research, who pointed out that historically, bitcoin has shown significant growth from October to March, and this trend could repeat, considering previous market cycles).
● Returning from fundamental to technical analysis, let’s recall some of the predictions based on chart patterns that we've previously discussed. About a month ago, the analyst known as Rekt Capital predicted a surge in the value of the leading cryptocurrency in October. His forecast was based on the "bull flag" pattern, which we mentioned at the beginning of this review, where the breakout height equals the height of the flagpole’s base. Another analyst, MetaShackle, relies on the "cup and handle" pattern. This forecast, which we detailed from 2-6 September, is another bullish chart formation that has been developing over the last three years. According to MetaShackle’s calculations, this pattern should lead the BTC/USD pair to rise to $130,870.
Recently, analyst and Factor LLC head Peter Brandt also referred to chart analysis in his forecast. The Wall Street legend believes that in 2025, the bitcoin-to-gold ratio could increase by more than 400%. Justifying his highly optimistic prediction, Brandt points to a classic technical model: the "inverse head and shoulders" pattern. This pattern forms under a resistance level called the neckline. The theory states that when resistance is broken, accompanied by rising trading volumes, the price climbs by the maximum distance between the neckline and the deepest point of the head.
Applied to the BTC/XAU chart, the price of 1 bitcoin could reach the equivalent of 123 ounces of gold by 2025, which is five times higher than the current 24.6 ounces as of 27 September 2024. In other words, assuming physical gold remains at its current level of $2,670, the price of digital gold, according to Brandt’s theory, could soar to over $328,000. Supporting the idea that bitcoin could surpass the precious metal is its rapid adoption by institutional investors, as well as the launch of bitcoin ETFs, which have increased the asset's presence in their portfolios.
● At the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday, 27 September, the BTC/USD pair is trading in the $65,900 zone. The total cryptocurrency market capitalisation has increased by $220 billion, reaching $2.32 trillion (compared to $2.10 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen from 54 to 61 points, moving from the Neutral zone to Greed. This trend supports the words of UFC fighter Renato Moicano, who urged the public to pay more attention to the leading cryptocurrency. "Bitcoin is not just an investment. It's a way of life," said the Brazilian, demanding that his prize for winning UFC 300 be paid in BTC.
CRYPTOCURRENCIES: ETH is No Longer the King of Altcoins. Long Live the New King?
● Despite the "dull period," the last three months have seen significant shifts in trends within the crypto market. Metrics show that among the 15 largest altcoins, Solana (SOL) has recorded the highest inflow of funds and continues to show steady growth. SOL's price has risen to $150, with a market capitalisation of around $69 billion and a trading volume of $2.34 billion. On the other hand, Ethereum has struggled, even with the title of the #1 altcoin. It has been unable to hold above $2,650 or surpass a market capitalisation threshold of $320 billion. The well-known blockchain has ceded its position to newer networks, registering the largest capital outflow since 13 March: more than $165 billion, a 33% decrease.
Solana has also faced losses. After reaching a peak of $203 in March, its value gradually declined, now standing at about $150. However, analysts at the investment firm VanEck foresee a bright future for SOL, predicting growth to $330. They base their forecast on the fact that Solana's blockchain outperforms Ethereum’s network in three key areas: 1. Solana's blockchain can process 31 times more transactions per second; 2. SOL's network is used by 14 times more people daily; 3. The cost of processing transfers on Solana's blockchain is significantly lower.
NordFX Analytical Group
Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

 

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for October 07 – 11, 2024
EUR/USD: Dollar Breaks Through

● For seven weeks, the EUR/USD pair remained in a sideways trend, lacking strong drivers, confined within the 1.1000-1.1200 range, and on Friday, 4th October, it once again approached the lower boundary of this channel. The main factor influencing this movement was the behaviour of the US Dollar Index (DXY). Calculated by ICE, the DXY rose due to increased demand for safe-haven assets. Concerns over the escalation of the Middle East crisis led to the largest weekly rise in oil prices since 2023, and the US dollar, as a safe-haven currency, became the best-performing G10 currency over a 5-day period. The US currency was also supported by encouraging economic data from the United States. According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report, the country's Services PMI jumped from 51.5 to 54.9 points in September, marking the highest level since February 2023.
● However, the most important event of the week was expected to be the US labour market data, traditionally published on the first Friday of every month. As reported by the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) on 4th October, the number of new jobs in the non-farm sector (NFP) increased by 254K. This figure followed a rise of 159K recorded in August and significantly exceeded market expectations of 140K. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% from 4.2% (forecast 4.2%), and instead of the expected decline in annual wage inflation to 3.3%, it actually rose to 4.0% (from 3.9% in the previous month).
● When making decisions on monetary policy, the US Federal Reserve always takes two key indicators into account: the state of the labour market and inflation. The current BLS report showed: 1) the resilience of the economy (since the number of new jobs is increasing and unemployment is falling, the economy is clearly on the rise), and 2) inflation growth. Based on this, market participants concluded that the Fed may not rush with further easing of its policy (QE).
Had the employment data been poor, it would have strengthened market expectations that the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) would cut the key interest rate by 50 basis points (bps) at its November meeting. However, now this probability has sharply decreased. Moreover, during his speech at the annual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) in Nashville on Monday, 30th October, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that the FOMC is "not the kind of committee that rushes to lower rates quickly." "If the economy performs as expected, that would mean two more rate cuts this year, both by a quarter of a point," the head of the US central bank stated.
● Against this backdrop, the US Dollar Index (DXY) surged to 102.69, and the EUR/USD pair, for the first time in many days, broke through the 1.1000 support and found a local bottom at 1.0950. The final note of the week was struck at 1.0974. Expert opinions on the future behaviour of EUR/USD in the near term provided no clear direction. About 20% of analysts supported the strengthening of the dollar and the pair's decline, another 20% predicted its weakening, and the majority (60%) took a neutral stance. In the medium term, the number of votes favouring dollar growth increases to 70%. In technical analysis on D1, all 100% of oscillators are in red, though a quarter of them signal the pair is oversold. Among trend indicators, 65% recommend selling, and 35% suggest buying.
The nearest support for the pair is located in the 1.0950 zone, followed by 1.0890-1.0925, 1.0780-1.0805, 1.0725, 1.0665-1.0680, 1.0600-1.0620, 1.0520-1.0565, and 1.0450-1.0465. Resistance zones are at 1.1000-1.1010, followed by 1.1045, 1.1100, 1.1155, 1.1185-1.1210, 1.1275, 1.1385, 1.1485-1.1505, and 1.1670-1.1690, 1.1875-1.1905.
● In the upcoming week's event calendar, Monday, 7th October stands out with the release of retail sales data from the Eurozone. Wednesday, 9th October is of interest due to the publication of the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting. The second half of the week promises to be more eventful. On Thursday, 10th October, in addition to the usual US unemployment data, we will learn what is happening with consumer inflation (CPI) in the United States. On Friday, Germany's CPI figure will be published first, and by the end of the five-day workweek, we can expect the release of another important inflation indicator – the US Producer Price Index (PPI).
CRYPTOCURRENCIES: The Mystery of Satoshi Nakamoto to be Revealed on 9th October
● Graphic analysis is somewhat reminiscent of the work of artists – each one sees something different when observing the same subject. A month ago, we shared how an analyst under the nickname Rekt Capital predicted a surge in the price of the first cryptocurrency in October, identifying a "bull flag" pattern on the BTC/USD chart. Another analyst, MetaShackle, based their forecast on the "cup and handle" pattern. This prediction was also described in detail by us. Peter Brandt, head of Factor LLC, recently made a forecast based on graphic analysis as well. This well-known analyst and trader suggested that by 2025, the bitcoin-to-gold ratio could increase by more than 400%. He based his highly optimistic forecast on another classic model – the "inverse head and shoulders."
And now, the same Peter Brandt, a Wall Street legend, has spotted not a head, but... blind mice. And not just one or two, but three, which seems to have deeply unsettled him. "A distinct 'three blind mice' pattern can be seen on the bitcoin chart," Brandt wrote. "It points to a further decline in price, so don't expect a bullish rally in October." According to him, the increase in bitcoin trading volumes alongside falling prices indicates that, amidst rising geopolitical tensions, institutional investors prefer to avoid risk and are quickly exiting the market, shifting to gold (and to the dollar, we might add). Brandt noted that in just one day at the beginning of October, over $240 million was withdrawn from US spot BTC-ETFs, the largest outflow in recent months.
It's worth mentioning that the "three blind mice" pattern also implies the presence of a "piece of cheese" these creatures are aiming for. Unfortunately, Brandt didn’t reveal where this cheese might be hidden. However, one could guess it's somewhere below the $60,000 support level. But as long as this level holds, there’s still a chance the mice will regain their sight and retreat, noticing the "bull flag," the "cup and handle," and the "inverse head and shoulders." Once they retreat, the leading cryptocurrency could take off.
● Analyst and Forbes contributor Jesse Colombo, much like Peter Brandt, has concluded that bitcoin has failed to live up to its reputation as a "safe haven" during times of global turmoil. Colombo points out that amidst escalating international tensions and the conflict between Israel and Iran, bitcoin, unlike gold, has once again disappointed investors who sought to use it as a hedge against risks.
"If bitcoin were truly 'digital gold,' it should have risen during periods of geopolitical upheaval, not declined," Colombo stated. "Bitcoin behaves like a speculative, high-risk asset, similar to shares of 'hot' tech companies, rather than as a safe-haven asset. This is evident from how closely bitcoin's price chart tracks the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index. Data from the last five years shows a striking correlation coefficient between the two – 0.88 [close to the maximum of 1.00], confirming their strong connection," the Forbes analyst concluded.
● Of course, the negative forecasts of Brandt and Colombo are well-founded. However, as noted by analysts at QCP Capital, the escalation in the Middle East only caused a moderate correction in the cryptocurrency market – bitcoin fell by just 4%, without breaking through the $60,000 level. QCP Capital does not rule out that further conflict escalation could lead to a decline in the price of "digital gold" to $55,000, but the asset is expected to recover from the drop. According to the specialists, BTC is currently supported by two factors: 1) The policy of the People's Bank of China, which aims to stimulate domestic demand amidst a slowdown in the national economy; 2) The initiation of monetary easing (QE) cycles and interest rate cuts by the central banks of major developed countries, primarily the US Federal Reserve.
According to QCP Capital's forecast, bitcoin is sure to demonstrate a bull rally, although its Dominance Index may dip slightly. Historically, October has been associated with a rise in this cryptocurrency’s price. QCP Capital analysts have calculated that over the last nine years, bitcoin has risen in October eight times, with an average increase of 22.9%. If this happens again, it could push the price above $75,000, marking new all-time highs.
● Another interesting observation was made by Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research. He noted that since the summer, after the release of data on business activity (PMI) in the US manufacturing sector, the crypto market has experienced a pullback of around 10%. "Now, manufacturing activity is declining again," the analyst wrote, "and it may shrink even further due to the dockworkers' strike that began on 30th September in several of the largest ports in the US. This will negatively affect the crypto sector as well." "Forecast indicators have dropped to a level close to recessionary," Thielen predicted. "If the PMI falls below 48.0, it will trigger another bitcoin decline, while a higher figure could fuel a rally." His forecast was accurate. While the market was expecting a reading of 47.5, the September manufacturing PMI actually dropped to 47.2 points. The data was released on Tuesday, 1st October, and that very day the BTC/USD pair showed a red candle on the chart, declining by approximately 6%. Of course, this could be a coincidence. Or it could be a pattern discovered by the founder of 10x Research.
Additionally, according to him, uncertainty in the crypto market is heightened by the potential for another key interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan as part of its ongoing tightening policy (QT).
● And, of course, a major factor generating a lot of speculation around the crypto market is the US presidential election. A survey conducted in the US by Harris Poll, with financial support from Grayscale, showed that over 56% of voters are more likely to vote for a presidential candidate who supports the crypto industry. According to the survey results, nearly 40% of voters now pay attention to a candidate's stance on digital assets (in December 2023, this figure did not exceed 34%). At the same time, nearly 45% of cryptocurrency holders believe that the Democratic Party is more favourable to the industry (with Kamala Harris as the presidential candidate), while 42% pointed to the Republicans (with Donald Trump as the candidate).
A similar poll conducted by crypto exchange Coinbase and Morning Consult showed that the votes of digital asset holders are split evenly: 47% support Kamala Harris, and another 47% back Donald Trump. Despite some discrepancies with the Harris Poll data, the results of both surveys clearly indicate that crypto investors will be an important group that could influence the outcome of the US presidential election on 5th November.
● Expert and founder of Eight and MN Trading, Michael Van De Poppe, believes that by the end of 2024, the price of the leading cryptocurrency will reach a record high of $192,000. He suggests that the BTC market is currently in a "perfect storm" situation. Rising social tensions in many countries, declining trust in traditional financial institutions, and geopolitical conflicts are driving investors towards assets like bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
According to the expert, as central banks lower interest rates and increase liquidity to stimulate economic growth, price increases for assets such as physical and digital gold are inevitable in the medium term. The exponentially growing US national debt and further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will become strong catalysts for cryptocurrency price growth. Van De Poppe believes that in the next cycle, bitcoin's price could reach anywhere between $300,000 and $600,000.
● As for bitcoin's main competitor, Ethereum, in our previous review titled "ETH Is No Longer the King of Altcoins. Long Live the New King?" we provided statistics showing how Solana (SOL) is surpassing the leading altcoin in terms of capital inflow. We won't claim that our publication was the reason, but the co-founder and former CEO of the crypto exchange BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, refuted it in a recent interview, stating that "Ethereum is the unassailable king of altcoins."
"It seems that Ethereum will never stop," he wrote. "The emergence of Layer 2 solutions has reduced transaction costs and accelerated transaction processing on the network. This increases Ethereum's competitiveness and gives it advantages over other networks. [...] Therefore, no other blockchain will be able to surpass it." The ex-CEO of BitMEX praised the Solana network for its user interface and active community. However, according to him, the SOL coin significantly lags behind Ethereum in market capitalization ($67 billion versus $294.5 billion). Furthermore, Hayes believes that for any blockchain to overtake ETH, developers must introduce new and original technology beyond its network.
● According to Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, the price of ETH in October could range between $2,200 and $3,400. Among the key factors influencing the asset’s price, Lee highlighted the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. He noted that once this rate aligns with Ethereum's staking yield, currently at 3.5% per annum, ETH will once again become an attractive investment tool. Thus, a reduction in interest rates will positively impact the coin's value.
Another bullish factor is the release of EigenLayer (EIGEN) tokens and their subsequent listing on exchanges. This could trigger an influx of additional capital into the ecosystem, helping ETH outpace bitcoin and Solana (SOL) in price growth. As a third growth factor, Ryan Lee pointed to the renewed excitement around meme tokens. According to him, there is currently an increase in meme-based digital assets on the Ethereum network, such as Neiro (NEIRO). High demand for these coins will attract new users and boost the popularity of the ETH network.
● As of the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday, 4th October, the BTC/USD pair is trading around $62,400, while the ETH/USD pair is at $2,430. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has declined to $2.17 trillion (down from $2.32 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped from 61 to 41 points, swiftly moving past the Neutral zone and shifting from the Greed zone directly into the Fear zone.
● And finally, an event that promises to become a global sensation. Next week, on 8th-9th October, the American TV channel HBO will air a documentary in which the creators claim to have identified the real Satoshi Nakamoto! "The revelation could send shockwaves through global financial markets and even impact the US presidential elections, given how the Republican candidate and former president Donald Trump has gained the support of bitcoin enthusiasts," the filmmakers stated.
Well, we'll see. Don't forget to turn on your TV and have some calming pills ready – just in case it turns out to be a real information bomb!
NordFX Analytical Group
Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

 

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for October 14 – 18, 2024
EUR/USD: Doves Outplay Hawks, Score 76:24
● Last week, four key events attracted the attention of the markets. The week began on Monday, 7th October, with the release of eurozone retail sales data. According to the statistics, retail sales in August grew by 0.2% month-on-month and by 0.8% year-on-year, which was almost in line with forecasts. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had expected growth of 0.2% (m/m) and 1.0% (y/y).
● The next significant event was the release of the minutes from the September FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday, 9th October. This 13-page document provided a detailed assessment of the economic situation and the opinions of Committee members on the prospects for monetary policy. The Fed downgraded its forecast for US economic growth in 2024 from 2.1% to 2.0%, while keeping the 2025 estimate unchanged at 2.0%. The inflation forecast for the current year was lowered from 2.6% to 2.3%, and for the following year, from 2.3% to 2.1%.
According to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's statement, the regulator's baseline scenario assumes further monetary policy easing. However, he noted that the Fed is in no hurry to act. The minutes revealed that Committee members are divided into two camps regarding the expected pace and magnitude of the key interest rate cuts. Some believe that it is essential to avoid a rate reduction that is either too late or insufficient, citing risks to the labour market. Others argue that a rate cut that is too swift or too large could halt the progress made in the fight against inflation or even lead to its resurgence.
● The next meeting of the US regulator will take place on 6-7th November. Market participants expect to see two more rate cuts this year, each by 25 basis points. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 76% probability that the first of these cuts will occur next month, while the probability that the rate will remain unchanged is estimated at around 24%. Against this backdrop, the major US stock indices rallied, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones reaching record closing levels.
● The third event took place on Thursday, 10th October, with the release of US inflation data. According to the US Department of Labour, while consumer prices in September slightly exceeded forecasts, annual inflation reached its lowest level since February 2021.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained at 0.2% month-on-month, despite forecasts of 0.1%. On an annual basis, the CPI was 2.4% in September, which was higher than the forecast of 2.3% but lower than the previous value of 2.5%. Core inflation (Core CPI), which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose to 3.3% year-on-year, exceeding both the forecast and expectations of 3.2%.
These figures reinforced investors' expectations that the US Federal Reserve would proceed with another rate cut in November. The EUR/USD pair reacted to the inflation data with volatility, fluctuating within a 50-point range (1.0904-1.0954), but by the start of Friday, it had returned to where it had been at the beginning of Thursday – in the middle of the range around 1.0935.
● It is worth recalling that on 18th September, the Federal Reserve lowered the key interest rate for the first time since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, and by 50 basis points at once. According to Jerome Powell, this sharp move was necessary to protect the labour market. However, data from the US Bureau of Labour Statistics, released on 4th October, showed the largest increase in new jobs in six months and a decrease in unemployment. The number of new jobs in the non-farm sector (NFP) rose by 254K, following an increase of 159K in August, and far exceeded market expectations of 140K. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% from 4.2%. According to analysts, this confirmed the resilience of the economy, and the expectation of a gradual rate cut this year.
● The final event of the week, which had the potential to influence the dynamics of the US Dollar Index (DXY) and consequently EUR/USD quotes, was the release of another important inflation indicator on Friday, 11th October – the US Producer Price Index (PPI). According to the report from the US Bureau of Labour Statistics, the PPI rose by 1.8% year-on-year in September. This followed an increase of 1.9% in August and exceeded market expectations of 1.6%. The core PPI, on a yearly basis, grew by 2.8% (forecast 2.7%). On a monthly basis, the PPI remained unchanged, while the core index rose by 0.2%.
● Despite the fact that producer price inflation exceeded forecasts, the market barely reacted to these figures. As a result, the week's final note was struck at the same level, 1.0935. Most analysts (70%) predict a decline in the EUR/USD pair ahead of the ECB meeting. The remaining 30% have taken a neutral stance. Indicators on D1 mostly align with the analysts’ outlook. All oscillators are in red, though a third of them signal the pair is oversold. Among trend indicators, 75% point south, while 25% point north.
The nearest support for the pair is in the 1.0890-1.0905 zone, followed by 1.0780-1.0805, 1.0725, 1.0665-1.0680, 1.0600-1.0620, 1.0520-1.0565, and 1.0450-1.0465. Resistance zones are located around 1.0990-1.1010, then 1.1045, 1.1100, 1.1155, 1.1185-1.1210, 1.1275, 1.1385, 1.1485-1.1505, 1.1670-1.1690, and 1.1875-1.1905.
● The most interesting day next week is expected to be Thursday, 17th October. On this day, eurozone consumer inflation (CPI) data will be released, followed by a meeting of the European Central Bank. Some experts anticipate that the ECB might opt for another 25 basis point cut in the key interest rate. In addition to this decision, the ECB's leadership comments on monetary policy will undoubtedly attract significant interest. Moreover, on 17th October, data on US retail sales and initial jobless claims will also be released.
CRYPTOCURRENCIES: The Crypto Industry's War with the SEC Enters a 'Hot' Phase

● We will begin our review of the crypto industry by picking up where we left off last time—with the "information bomb" that was expected to explode on 8-9th October. The American television channel HBO had promised to reveal the real identity of Satoshi Nakamoto. And indeed, they did name someone, but few believed it. According to the authors of the documentary Electronic Money: The Mystery of Bitcoin, the pseudonym Nakamoto allegedly belonged to 39-year-old Canadian Peter Todd. Todd was indeed one of the early developers of Bitcoin Core, but he was never among the main suspects thought to be Nakamoto.
The filmmakers presented several arguments, including the use of British/Canadian spelling in Nakamoto's writings and a correlation between the timing of Todd’s educational schedule and Nakamoto's posts. The key "evidence" was a message posted on the Bitcoin forum in 2010, supposedly left by Todd under Nakamoto’s name. However, these arguments failed to convince most viewers. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, even called the documentary "disgusting" and expressed astonishment at how misguided the conclusions were.
● Another, more tangible, sensation could emerge from the latest round in the ongoing battle between the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and representatives of the crypto industry. Speaking at New York University’s School of Law, SEC Chair Gary Gensler stated that cryptocurrencies are unlikely to ever be widely used as a payment method and will continue to be viewed primarily as a store of value. Gensler also praised his agency’s approach to enforcing regulations on crypto companies through legal action. "Sometimes we need to take enforcement actions to bring people back to the right side," he said.
Under Gensler’s leadership, the SEC has filed numerous lawsuits against crypto companies for violating securities laws. Defendants include major centralized exchanges such as Coinbase, Binance, and Kraken, as well as the fintech company Ripple, the issuer of the XRP token. The SEC, however, has refused to establish clearer regulatory guidelines or criteria for determining whether a cryptocurrency falls into one of two categories: a security or a commodity. In assessing the future of cryptocurrencies, Gensler struck a blow to the digital industry by citing Gresham's Law: "Bad money drives out good."
● It's certainly disheartening when cryptocurrencies are labelled as "the worst," and crypto advocates are described as being on "the wrong side." However, in the US, it's not only authorities that can file lawsuits against commercial organisations— the reverse is also possible. And they can even call the SEC an "illegal entity." In a bold move, the cryptocurrency exchange Crypto.com has filed a lawsuit against the SEC, accusing the agency of overstepping its authority in regulating the crypto industry. This was announced by the co-founder and CEO of the platform, Kris Marszalek.
"This unprecedented action by our company against a federal agency is a justified response to the SEC's enforcement measures, which have harmed more than 50 million American cryptocurrency holders," he wrote on his social media page. According to Marszalek, the Commission has overreached its legal boundaries and now operates as an unlawful entity, labelling almost all cryptocurrencies as securities. The Crypto.com CEO also promised that the company would use "all available regulatory tools" to bring clarity to the industry and protect the future of the crypto sector in the US through legal means.
● Continuing with the topic of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), here's another development. Following in the footsteps of Bitwise, the crypto investment firm Canary Capital has filed an application with the SEC to launch a spot XRP-ETF based on Ripple. The idea behind this exchange-traded fund is to give investors access to one of the largest altcoins through a traditional brokerage account, without the risks associated with directly buying and storing cryptocurrency. And this is good news.
The application was submitted using Form S-1, which means there are no specific deadlines by which the regulator must make a decision. And that's the bad news: knowing Gary Gensler’s stance, the review process could range from "just a long time" to "endlessly long." Additionally, a second mandatory step in launching the ETF is the submission of another application—this time by the stock exchange where the new product will be listed. As of now, the SEC has not received such a filing from any exchange.
● The outcome of the US presidential elections could significantly impact the crypto industry. Geoff Kendrick, Head of Crypto Research at Standard Chartered Bank, predicts that if Donald Trump is elected, the price of bitcoin could triple by the end of 2025, and Solana could rise fivefold. Kendrick believes that the Trump administration would be more favourable towards the Solana ecosystem compared to a Harris administration. Therefore, if Kamala Harris becomes the occupant of the White House, bitcoin is expected to outpace Ethereum in growth, while Ethereum would surpass Solana and reach $7,000. Kendrick also suggests that bitcoin could rise to $200,000 by the end of 2025, regardless of the election results on 5th November.
● Currently, both bitcoin and Ethereum are under pressure. Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency, faces speculation about a potential sale of a large number of tokens held by the US government, although no decision has been made yet. According to analysts at QCP Capital, the rising demand for meme coins is also hindering BTC's growth. As for Ethereum, its price could be negatively impacted by the Chinese authorities, who are reportedly preparing to sell $1.3 billion worth of Ethereum seized from employees of the cryptocurrency company PlusToken.
● At the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday, 10th October, the BTC/USD pair is trading around $63,080, the ETH/USD pair at $2,460, and SOL/USD at $146.0. The total cryptocurrency market capitalisation has remained relatively unchanged, standing at $2.20 trillion (compared to $2.17 trillion a week ago). The Bitcoin Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped from 41 to 32 points, placing it in the Fear zone.
● And finally, an event that could turn into another global sensation. Renowned economist Tyler Cowen has nominated Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin for the Nobel Prize in Economics. This initiative was supported by another prominent expert, Professor Alexander Tabarrok. Both economists praised Buterin for his significant contributions to the monetary economics of cryptocurrencies, emphasising that his work has far surpassed that of any other economist. According to Tyler, Vitalik built the brilliant Ethereum platform and created a digital currency that challenges Mises' Regression Theorem. This theorem asserts that the value of money can be traced back ("regressed") to the value of the goods and services it represents.
Cowen and his colleague also commended Buterin's continued efforts to develop the Ethereum network and highlighted that he would make an excellent speaker at the Nobel Prize ceremony (if he is approved), noting his politeness and good communication skills.
For reference: Vitalik Buterin was born near Moscow in 1994, meaning he is currently 30 years old. At the age of 6, he moved with his parents from Russia to Canada. He is the co-founder and former editor of *Bitcoin Magazine* and the co-founder of the Ethereum project, for which he won the World Technology Award in 2014, beating out Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg and other contenders. In 2021, Buterin became the youngest cryptocurrency billionaire in the world. American *Forbes* estimated Buterin's net worth at $1.3 billion.
NordFX Analytical Group
Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

 

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for November 04 – 08, 2024
In October 2024, the U.S. labor market saw limited movement, with total nonfarm payroll employment rising by only 12,000 jobs, keeping the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%. Health care and government sectors saw continued job growth, while temporary help services and manufacturing experienced declines, the latter impacted by strike activity. Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which caused significant damage and evacuations in the southeastern U.S., may have influenced employment figures and data collection, potentially skewing labor data.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics noted, however, that it cannot quantify the hurricanes' impact on employment shifts. Moreover, the storms did not visibly affect the unemployment rate. After the data release, the dollar fell sharply by 0.35%, while stock indices and cryptocurrencies saw a recovery. Markets are now anticipating rate cuts in 2025, with expectations of a 25 basis point reduction at the November and December Federal Reserve meetings.
The U.S. presidential election on November 5th will be a major focal point for the markets next week, likely driving significant volatility around that date.
EUR/USD
The Euro saw a slight increase over the week, though it appears to be struggling to hold onto those gains. Currently, the market seems likely to remain volatile and move sideways, with prices hovering around the 50-Week EMA.
If the price breaks above the top of previous week’s candlestick, it could face resistance at the 1.10 level. Conversely, the 1.0750 level offers strong support and is worth monitoring closely. Should the price fall below this point, it may target the 1.05 level, which has consistently served as a major support zone over the past few years. Overall, the market appears to lack clear direction at this stage.

XAU/USD
Escalating geopolitical tensions have led investors to turn to safe-haven assets like gold, fueled by heightened risk aversion and worries about global market stability. Gold has repeatedly set new records this year, climbing over 30% amid expectations of further central bank rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. According to LSEG data, this marks its strongest annual growth since 1979.
Gold had a bullish run past week, but momentum appears to be slowing. The weekly candlestick reflects some hesitation, indicating that a phase of profit-taking might be near. The $2800 mark, a significant psychological level, has drawn substantial market interest. Traders should monitor any pullbacks closely, as these may present buying opportunities, particularly around the $2600 level.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin (BTC) saw a gain of over 2% this week until Friday, with a strong start bringing it close to a new all-time high, followed by a notable decline as signs of profit-taking emerged.
Analysts suggest that Bitcoin might experience a pullback in the coming days ahead of the U.S. presidential election, a critical event that could shape the regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies. The continuation of Bitcoin’s recent rally in the short term is closely tied to the election results, with many traders believing that a victory for former President Donald Trump could result in more favorable regulatory conditions for the crypto market.
If BTC continues its decline and closes below the $69,500 mark, it could potentially fall over 5% to test the next key support at $66,000, aligning closely with the breakout point of the downward-sloping parallel channel pattern near $65,800 on the weekly chart. However, if Bitcoin stays above $69,500, it may attempt to retest and possibly break through its all-time high of $73,777.
NordFX Analytical Group
Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

 

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for November 18 – 22, 2024
The financial markets enter the week of November 18–22, 2024, amid significant economic and political developments shaping currency, commodity, and cryptocurrency movements. The recent re-election of Donald Trump has boosted market confidence in a pro-business and deregulation-focused administration, strengthening the US dollar. This has been further supported by robust US economic data, including low unemployment and resilient consumer spending, which reinforce expectations of continued monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve.
Globally, the eurozone remains under pressure due to sluggish growth and political uncertainties, which weigh on the euro. Gold prices are responding to the dollar’s strength, as investors weigh the prospects of higher interest rates against the metal's role as a safe-haven asset. Meanwhile, bitcoin is seeing record highs, driven by optimism about regulatory clarity and increased institutional adoption. These factors will be key drivers of market dynamics for EUR/USD, XAU/USD, and BTC/USD in the upcoming week.
EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is expected to test the support area near 1.0450, with a potential rebound signalling further growth towards the target level of 1.0875. An additional signal supporting this bullish scenario is a test of the support line on the RSI indicator.
The key level to watch for invalidating this growth outlook is 1.0365. A breakout below this level would indicate further bearish momentum, with the pair likely continuing to decline towards the target of 0.9945. Conversely, confirmation of sustained growth would require a breakout above the 1.0665 level, signalling a breach of the descending channel and opening the path for further upward movement.
This outlook considers the interplay of technical signals and critical support and resistance levels, which traders should monitor closely in the coming week.
XAU/USD
Gold ended the week near 2568, with XAU/USD moving within a bullish channel. Moving averages suggest a bullish trend, with prices testing key signal lines, indicating buyer pressure and potential growth. A decline towards the 2455 support level is expected, followed by a rebound targeting 2675.
A rebound from the RSI support line and the lower border of the bullish channel supports the growth scenario. However, a breakout below 2385 would invalidate this outlook, signalling a decline towards 2315. Confirmation of continued growth would require a breakout above 2625, indicating further bullish momentum.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) closed the week at 89,337, moving within a bullish channel that suggests a continued upward trend. The moving averages and recent upward breakout through signal lines support this bullish momentum. However, a short-term correction towards the 76,505 support level is possible, from which a rebound could lead to further gains, targeting levels above 112,605.
Key signals for the week include a bounce from the bullish channel’s lower boundary and the RSI support line. A drop below 73,605 would invalidate the bullish outlook, potentially leading to a decline towards 65,605. Conversely, a breakout above 99,905 would confirm further upward movement in line with the channel’s width.
NordFX Analytical Group
Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

 

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for November 25 – 29, 2024
As we step into the last week of November, global financial markets are grappling with a mix of challenges and opportunities. Geopolitical developments, including the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are intensifying risk aversion among investors, driving demand for traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and the US dollar. At the same time, market participants are closely watching the U.S. Federal Reserve, where speculation about a potential rate cut is gaining traction due to softening inflation and mixed economic data. In Europe, the ECB's cautious approach and persistent economic sluggishness are keeping the euro under pressure, while cryptocurrencies continue to attract attention amid growing institutional interest, even as regulatory uncertainties persist.
Against this backdrop, major trading instruments like EUR/USD, XAU/USD, and BTC/USD are exhibiting distinctive trends. The interplay of macroeconomic forces and technical patterns in these instruments suggests both opportunities and risks for traders in the week ahead. Below is a detailed analysis of their forecasted movements.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD currency pair is trading around 1.0400, navigating a broader sideways channel that has dominated its trend in recent months. Despite the current bearish momentum, the pair remains in a state of consolidation, with significant resistance at 1.0685 and support at 1.0345. Moving averages reinforce the bearish sentiment, showing downward pressure as prices have broken below key signal lines. However, a potential rebound from the 1.0345 level could serve as a catalyst for recovery, targeting the upper boundary of the range near 1.0685.
This week's forecast suggests a retest of the 1.0345 support zone, where a rebound is likely. A breakout above 1.0535 would confirm bullish momentum and signal a move towards 1.0685. Conversely, a sustained break below 1.0045 could invalidate this recovery scenario and pave the way for a deeper decline towards 0.9865. Technical indicators, including the relative strength index (RSI), provide additional signals, with a rebound from oversold levels potentially supporting the upside case.
XAU/USD
Gold prices remain robust, currently trading near $2,700 per ounce, underpinned by heightened geopolitical tensions and speculation about a softer U.S. monetary policy. The precious metal has been moving within a strong bullish channel, with prices breaking above the area between key signal lines on moving averages, signalling robust demand. While the long-term trend points to continued upward movement, a short-term corrective pullback toward the $2,485 support level may occur before another leg higher.
The forecast for the week suggests that gold will test $2,485, followed by a rebound targeting $3,125. The RSI indicator and the bullish channel's lower boundary are expected to act as key support zones. However, a break below $2,435 would invalidate the bullish scenario, indicating a shift in momentum and opening the door for further declines to $2,345. A confirmed breakout above $2,755 would reinforce bullish sentiment and signal a resumption of the upward trend.
BTC/USD

Bitcoin continues its impressive rally, closing last week near $98,790 and maintaining its trajectory within a well-defined ascending channel. The cryptocurrency is benefiting from increased demand as a hedge against inflation and fiat currency instability. Moving averages indicate a sustained bullish trend, though short-term corrections are likely as the asset consolidates its recent gains.
This week, a pullback toward $91,305 is expected, followed by a potential bounce targeting $116,505. A breakout above the resistance level of $102,505 would confirm the bullish continuation, while a drop below $80,505 would invalidate this outlook and signal a deeper correction towards $72,605. Technical indicators, such as RSI, show potential support for an upward rebound, but traders should remain vigilant for sudden shifts, which are typical in the cryptocurrency market.
NordFX Analytical Group
Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

 

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for December 02 – 06, 2024
As November draws to a close and December begins, financial markets remain dynamic, shaped by a mix of geopolitical events, monetary policy updates, and investor sentiment shifts. The Eurozone faces persistent economic challenges, weighing on the euro, while gold continues to shine as a safe haven amidst global uncertainty. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market, led by bitcoin, is riding a wave of optimism as regulatory developments and institutional interest bolster its upward momentum.
Here’s a detailed analysis of the key instruments,EUR/USD, BTC/USD, and XAU/USD,as we head into the first trading week of December 2024.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair concluded the previous week at 1.0544, remaining within a long-term descending channel. Indicators, including moving averages, confirm a prevailing bearish trend as prices recently broke below key signal levels. However, the potential for a rebound remains.
Early in the week, the pair is expected to test the support level around 1.0345. If this level holds, the pair may see a recovery, with a potential rise toward the resistance area above 1.0735. Such movement could gain support from technical signals, including a test of the RSI support line or a bounce from the channel's lower boundary. On the downside, a decisive break below the 1.0125 level would invalidate the recovery scenario, opening the door for further declines toward 0.9825.
XAU/USD

Gold closed the week at $2,658, continuing its upward movement within an ascending channel. Indicators such as moving averages confirm the strength of the bullish trend, with prices breaching key resistance levels. Despite the positive outlook, a short-term decline may emerge before further growth.
The price is likely to test the $2,525 support level at the beginning of the week. If this level holds, gold could rebound and climb towards $3,005. Signals from the RSI and a bounce from the ascending channel's lower boundary would further support this movement. Conversely, a drop below $2,445 would undermine the bullish scenario, potentially driving prices toward $2,375.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin ended last week at $97,047, maintaining its upward trajectory within a bullish channel. The cryptocurrency's performance remains underpinned by moving averages and a breakout above key signal areas. While the broader trend is bullish, a short-term correction may precede further gains.
A pullback to the support area near $90,405 could occur early in the week. Following this, bitcoin is expected to resume its ascent, targeting levels above $120,505. Indicators such as a rebound from the bullish channel's lower boundary and RSI trendline support could validate this growth. However, a fall below the $80,505 level would signal a breakdown in the bullish structure and suggest a decline toward $72,665.
The first week of December is set to be a pivotal period for the markets. While EUR/USD remains under bearish pressure, there are opportunities for rebounds if support levels hold. Bitcoin's bullish trend appears intact, though traders should anticipate and prepare for short-term corrections. Gold, as a safe-haven asset, shows strong potential for growth, provided its critical support areas remain unbroken. In light of these dynamics, traders should carefully monitor the markets and adapt their strategies accordingly.
NordFX Analytical Group
Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

 

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for December 09 – 13, 2024
The past week exhibited varying trends across major markets. The euro managed to hold its ground against the dollar, albeit within a persistent long-term descending channel. Gold and bitcoin extended their upward momentum, supported by strong technical indicators. Looking ahead, the EUR/USD pair appears poised to test critical support and resistance levels, gold may encounter a temporary correction before resuming its upward trajectory, and bitcoin shows signs of strength within its established bullish channel. Below is a detailed forecast for the week ahead.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair closed the previous week near 1.0551, reflecting moderate growth while remaining within its long-term descending channel. Although moving averages point to a bearish trend, a potential reversal could emerge from the "Head and Shoulders" pattern taking shape. The pair shows signs of downward pressure from buyers, with prices previously breaking through signal lines. A short-term correction to the 1.0505 support level is expected, followed by a rebound that could push the pair toward the 1.0925 mark. Supporting this view is a test of the RSI's support line, alongside a rebound from the "Neck" line of the reversal model. However, a breakout below 1.0245 would negate the bullish scenario, signalling a continuation of the decline, potentially targeting the 0.9805 level. On the other hand, sustained movement above 1.0695 would confirm further growth, indicating a breakout of the descending channel's upper boundary.
XAU/USD
Gold ended last week near the 2637 level, continuing its progress within a bullish channel. Prices show strength, having breached resistance levels under the influence of buyers. However, the short term may bring a decline toward the 2545 support zone, where a rebound is anticipated. Such a move would pave the way for gold to target the 2965 level in the coming sessions. A supportive signal for further growth is a rebound from the RSI trend line and the lower boundary of the ascending channel. Should prices break below the 2435 mark, the bullish outlook would be invalidated, opening the door for further declines to 2365. Conversely, a breakout above 2745 would confirm continued bullish momentum for the metal.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin closed the previous week at 99,301, maintaining its trajectory within a well-defined bullish channel. The asset remains under strong buyer pressure, reflected in its upward movement above key resistance areas. A short-term correction is anticipated, with the price likely to test the 92,505 support level. From there, a rebound could push bitcoin toward a new high at 123,605. Additional bullish confirmation comes from rebounds off the RSI support line and the lower boundary of the bullish channel. A breakdown below 80,505, however, would invalidate this outlook, potentially leading to a deeper decline toward 72,005. On the flip side, a breakout above 106,025 would affirm the bullish case, further strengthening the asset's growth prospects.

The week of December 9–13, 2024, is set to be pivotal for forex and cryptocurrency markets. The EUR/USD pair will likely fluctuate between correction and growth, while gold and bitcoin, despite possible near-term corrections, remain in bullish formations. Traders should monitor critical levels closely to navigate potential opportunities and risks effectively.
NordFX Analytical Group
Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.