Forex Daily Technical Analysis

Technical Overview of AUD/USD Currency Pair

AUD USD

AUD traded higher against USD and closed at 0.6963.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), as was widely expected, decided to cut interest rates for the second month in a row to a historic low level of 1.0% at its July monetary policy meeting held this Tuesday.

The decision was on expected lines and hence, did little to prompt any fresh selling around the Australian Dollar, with the AUD/USD pair holding steady above mid-0.6900s.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.69344 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.69057. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.70132, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.70633.

Major Economic Events of the Day

Mark Carney is Governor of the Bank of England and Chairman of the Monetary Policy Committee, Financial Policy Committee and the Board of the Prudential Regulation Authority. His appointment as Governor was approved by Her Majesty the Queen on 26 November 2012. The Governor joined the Bank on 1 July 2013.

Philip Lowe replaced Glenn Stevens as governor of Australia’s central bank. Lowe was the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, a position he held since February 2012.

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Technical Overview of GBP/USD and EUR/JPY Currency Pair


GBP USD

GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.2527.

GBP/USD - Charts Suggest the 2019 Low Is Vulnerable.
D1 and H4 200 EMA Heads to south.
Broke D1 Ib towards the down side.
Broke the Quarter Support and Month Support.
Series of Lower Lows and Lower Highs.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.24759 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.24252. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.25822, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.26378.

EUR JPY

EUR traded lower against JPY and closed at 121.779.

EUR/JPY: Scope for Retesting 120.82.
D1 and H4 200 EMA Heads to south.
Broke D1 Ib towards the down side.
It's in range but projects towards the down side.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 121.596 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 121.414. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 121.943, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 122.108.

Major Economic Events of the Day

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will hold a press conference about monetary policies in Tokyo. Mr Kuroda exercises general control over the Bank's business. He is in charge of the Internal Auditors' Office.

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Technical Overview of EUR/USD and AUD/USD and GBP/NZD Currency Pair

EUR USD

EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1208.

EUR is expected to trade sideways, likely within a 1.1190/1.1230 range.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.11943 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.11810. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.12198, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.12320.

AUD USD

AUD traded lower against USD and closed at 0.6926.

AUD/USD - Edges Lower After Weak Consumer Confidence
Bears Seem Confident Ahead Of Fed

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.69059 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.68858. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.69604, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.69948.

GBP NZD

GBP traded lower against NZD and closed at 1.8856.

Overnight NZD was struck by a massive selling order. It was almost 34 pips in Asian session.

UK Manufacturing Production today

We can see that the expected 2.1 is way lot better than previous –3.9
if we have a positive tone from GBP then the Technical and fundamental bounce from the lows will be supported.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.88115 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.87673. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.88989, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.89421.


Major Economic Events of the Day

• CAD: BOC Tone On Wed Likely A Bit More Optimistic Than Markets Assuming – CIBC
• “While not a stunner for markets, the tone will tend to be a bit more optimistic than what markets are now assuming.”
• The Consumer Price Index is released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China.Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CNY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish) for the CNY.
• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress, providing a broad overview of the economy and monetary policy. Powell's prepared remarks are published ahead of the appearance on Capitol Hill.

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Technical Overview of USD/CAD and USD/JPY Currency Pair

USD CAD

USD traded lower against CAD and closed at 1.3069.

Trades near the yearly-low (1.3037) even though the Bank of Canada (BoC) endorses a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy, and recent price action keeps the downside targets on the radar as the exchange rate fails to break out of the monthly opening range.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.30436 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.30179. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.30931, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.31169.

USD JPY

USD traded lower against JPY and closed at 108.487.

USD/JPY to find support from yields may face resistance above 109.00.
Its approaching resistance level and fundamentally the weakness of USD may drive the pair lower.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 108.053 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 107.618. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 108.726, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 108.964.

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Technical Overview of AUD/USD and USD/JPY Currency Pair

AUD USD

AUD traded higher against USD and closed at 0.7022.

Maintain a bullish data; Staying Long is more favorable as compared to short. Daily chart has a break above close above 10 EMA. Targets may be 0.73, Daily High and Weekly High has also been breached over night. Looking for a break meaningfully above resistance earlier this week at 0.7036 and remain long AUD USD targeting 0.7300.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.69868 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.69515. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.70409, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.70597.

USD JPY

USD traded higher against JPY and closed at 107.885.

3 - Bearish Days for the Dollar, Expectations are the Rate cut by end of July.
Bearish sentiment leads the currency against the basket of CHF and JPY.
Selling rallies may be a positive approach in trading the safe-heaven. The basket trades below Quarterly and Yearly Pivots.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 107.589 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 107.292. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 108.394, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 108.902.

Major Events of the Day

NZD: Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Q2)

Consumer Price Index released by the Statistics New Zealand is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services . The purchase power of NZD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while a low reading is seen as negative.

CNY: Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q2)

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China studies the gross value of all goods and services produced by China. The indicator presents the pace at which the Chinese economy is growing or decreasing. As the Chinese economy has influence on the global economy, this economic event would have an impact on the Forex market. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CNY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

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Technical Overview of AUD/USD and EUR/JPY Currency Pair

AUD USD

AUD traded higher against USD and closed at 0.7008.

• Higher After Post-Aus Jobs Short-Covering
• AUD/NZD rallied from a 4-month low at 1.0404 to 1.0435.
• AUD/USD rally was short-covering as it doesn't change RBA expectations.
• Resistance at 0.7045 while 10-day MA at 0.6991 is support.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.69948 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.69811. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.70233, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.70381.


EUR JPY

EUR traded lower against JPY and closed at 121.15.

• JPY breaking its lows on daily candle as well as weekly candle.
• The losers against the JPY are USD and EUR for now.
• Pretty decent Harmonic patterns found on H4 charts that are in confluence with the Fundamental expects.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 121.038 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 120.926. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 121.371, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 121.592.

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Technical Overview of EUR/USD, AUD/NZD and EUR/JPY Currency Pair

EUR USD

EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1220.

Below 200 and 50 EMA with the trend towards the down side.
Making a series of Lower Highs and Lower Lows.
Stalling in the Weekly Inside bar Pattern.
Break on either side may lead the trend.
The most important factor is the Fed rate cut.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1214 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1207. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1226, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1231.

AUD NZD

AUD traded lower against NZD and closed at 1.0401.

Below 200 and 50 EMA with the trend towards the down side.
Making a series of Lower Highs and Lower Lows.
Broke the Weekly inside Bar Pattern to the down side.
Broke the low of Monthly candle,
Any Selling opportunity may be good option.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.0383 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0376. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0396, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0402.

EUR JPY

EUR traded lower against JPY and closed at 120.77.

Bears in control as they broke the Weekly In sidebar and are to target the bearish ABCD Pattern, heading towards minimum 127 extension.

ECB steers the market towards more easing later in the year.
Quantitative Easing and Further rate cut by 10 Basis Points will weaken the EURO.
This rate cut may occur in September.
Until then EURO may remain sideways.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 120.94 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 120.86. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 121.10, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 121.20.

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Technical Overview of EUR/USD and GBP/CHF Currency Pair

EUR USD

EUR traded lower against USD and closed at 1.1208.

EUR/USD - Bears get clear signals ahead of ECB Meet.
We have break below close below of Daily Ib and Weekly Ib.
Bollinger bands facing towards south.
EUR/USD near-term downside limited to channel base 1.1158
Quiet Trading Expected Ahead Of Key Event Risks
ECB meeting Thursday and FOMC next week likely be catalysts for breakout.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.12013 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.11941. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.12204, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.12323.

GBP CHF

GBP traded higher against CHF and closed at 1.225.

The GBP/CHF continued to trade downwards, targeting the lower area located @1.2000.

Given that the currency pair is pressured by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour moving averages and has breached low of Monthly candle currently located in the 1.2285/1.2325 range, it is expected, that the British Pound could continue to depreciate against the Swiss Franc.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.22173 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.21845. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.22931, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.23361.

Fundamentals of the Day

1) Dollar rises as fears of a 50 point interest-rate cut fade
The U.S. dollar rose in afternoon trade on Friday as fears of a larger-than-expected 50-basis-point interest rate cut in July abated after the New York Federal Reserve walked back dovish comments from its president the prior day.

2) ECB Bank Lending Survey
The bank lending survey (BLS) for the euro area was launched in 2003. Its main objective is to enhance the Eurosystem’s knowledge of financing conditions in the euro area. The BLS provides input to the ECB Governing Council’s assessment of monetary and economic developments, on which it bases its monetary policy decisions.

3) FPC Meeting Minutes
Bank of England Financial Policy Committee Minutes is a detailed record of the FPC's most recent meeting. The report, which is released quarterly, provides in-depth insights into the financial conditions and decisions towards financial stability.

4) Tory Leadership Contest Result Announcement
The UK Conservative Party is set to announce the results of the vote for its new leadership. UK tories have been voting for weeks and the race has been trimmed to two candidates: Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt. The winner of the contest will become the new British Prime Minister, succeeding Theresa May at the Number 10 Downing Street office.

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Technical Overview of EUR/USD and GBP/USD Currency Pair

EUR USD

EUR traded lower against USD and closed at 1.1121.

Staying Tactically Bearish For 1.1050; A 50bp Fed Cut Would Be A Game Changer.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.12150 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.11543. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.14118, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.14725.

GBP USD

GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.2343.

To New 2019 Low As EU Affirms No Reopening Of Brexit Deal.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.25558 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.24902. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.27682, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.28338.

COT Report for Different Currencies this week

COT Report for Swisse
Swissie Net Commercials volume is above the 0 mark and in a positive side showing Net Long positions in strength.
Its a wise decision to remain Long on swissie.

COT Report for Canadian Dollar
Here In Canadian Dollar Net Commercials we see that from the 11th June- 18th June.
The Canadian Dollar has weighted towards a Net Commercial Short Position.
Means that Shorting Canadian Will be a wise decision, Alternatively Going Long on the retracements can also be entertained.

COT Report for US Dollar
US Dollar Net Commercial Positions Weighs towards the Net Short side.
It can be clearly seen that from the Year start , the commercials have been interested in shorting the US Dollar.

COT Report for GBP
After facing turbulance from 19 March to almost a month ,GBP Net commercials weigh towards the Long Net Positions.
GBP may show some reaction to the COT Report this week.

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Technical Overview of EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD Currency Pair

EUR USD

EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1107.

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) today shows business conditions in the US non-manufacturing sector. It is worth noting that the non-manufacturing sector does not influence, either positively or negatively, the GDP as much as the ISM Manufacturing does. A result above 50 is positive (or bullish) for the USD.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1121 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1117. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1130 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1135.

AUD USD

AUD traded lower against USD and closed at 0.6799.

• AUD/USD down 0.5% in sympathy with a weakening Yuan as China fights back.
• USD/CNY blasts through pivotal 7.00 as US-China trade tensions escalate.
• Leads to risk aversion in Asia as risk/EM assets sold across board.
• Havens JPY, XAU +0.5%, US-10 year yield hits 1.7890, lowest since Nov 9, 2016.
• Risk barometer AUD/JPY -1% to a new 2019 low; RBA to sound more dovish Tues?

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.6776 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6768. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6789, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6794.

NZD USD

NZD traded lower against USD and closed at 0.6540

• A number of downward slopping trend lines indicate weakness of NZD/USD.
• 10-week old support-line grabs bears’ attention.
• In addition to a two-day long descending trend-line, the NZD/USD pair’s sustained trading below a resistance-line stretched since late-July also portrays its weakness as the quote seesaws near 0.6510 during early Monday.

The Employment Change released by the Statistics New Zealand is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in New Zealand. Generally speaking, today a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZ dollar, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.6521 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6513. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6533, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6537.

 

Technical Overview of AUD/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY Currency Pair

AUD USD

AUD traded lower against USD and closed at 0.6756.

• AUD/USD remains upbeat as the RBA renounce from the policy change.
• The central bank stepped back from suggesting further rate cuts.
• Trade/political news will be followed for fresh impulse.

According to the report of The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), there will be no change in the monetary policy, offers a 1.0% interest rate. The central bank avoid from supporting further rate cuts while leaving the door open based on future growth conditions. Earlier during the day, upbeat trade balance data for June also pleased Aussie buyers.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.678 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.677. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6797 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6803.

GBP USD

GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.2143.

· GBP/USD stays on defensive 100 hour exponential moving average.
· 4-day old support-line seems immediate rest ahead of 1.2080.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.2101 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2057. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2189, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2233.

USD JPY

USD traded higher against JPY and closed at 105.9500.

The Gross Domestic Product released by the Cabinet Office shows the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced in Japan within a given period of time. GDP is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which the Japanese economy is growing or decreasing. A high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the JPY, while a low reading is negative.

Previous reading for Gross Domestic Product was 0.6%.
Expected GDP is 0.1%.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 106.43 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 106.17. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 107.02, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 107.36.

 

Technical Overview of NZD/USD, EUR/USD and USD/CNY Currency Pair

NZD USD

NZD traded lower against USD and closed at 0.6446.

· Lower than expected USD/CNY fix and comments from RBNZ calming markets.
· RBNZ asst Governor Hawkes by is confident inflation will rise after 50 BP cut.
· Hawkes by said unconventional tools an option only if inflation tanks.
· NZD/USD resistance at former support at 0.6480/90 where sellers are tipped.

The Gross Domestic Product released by the Cabinet Office shows the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced in Japan within a given period of time. GDP is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which the Japanese economy is growing or decreasing. A high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the JPY, while a low reading is negative. According To consensus GDP rate is expected to be lower than previous rate.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.6455 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6452. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6461 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6463.

EUR USD

EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1199.

Danske Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and expects a dip back towards 1.10 in EUR/USD on 1-3M on yet another Fed disappointment in September.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1211 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1209. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1214, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1216.

USD CNY

USD traded lower against CNY and closed at 7.0602.

USD/CNY fix at 7.0039, which was below market estimates.

The Consumer Price Index is released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. It is a measure of retail price variations within a representative basket of goods and services. The result is a comprehensive summary of the results extracted from the urban consumer price index and rural consumer price index. The purchase power of the CNY is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. A substantial consumer price index increase would indicate that inflation has become a destabilizing factor in the economy, potentially prompting The People’s Bank of China to tighten monetary policy and fiscal policy risk. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CNY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish) for the CNY.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 7.0359 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 7.0116. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 7.0749, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 7.0896.

 

Technical Overview of AUD/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CAD Currency Pair

AUD USD

AUD traded lower against USD and closed at 0.6802.

· RBA quarterly SOMP just released is in line with dovish market assumptions
· RBA notes the downside risks posed by US-China trade war escalation
· AUD/USD off early high (0.6822), but still holding above 0.6800

The RBA Monetary Policy Statement released by the Reserve bank of Australia reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. It is considered as a clear guide to the future RBA interest rate policy. Any changes in this report affect the AUD volatility. If the RBA statement shows a hawkish outlook, that is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a dovish outlook is seen as negative (or bearish).

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.6713 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6666. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6789 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6818.

GBP USD

GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.2133.

The Gross Domestic Product released by the National Statistics is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the UK. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the UK economic activity. Generally speaking, a rising trend has a positive effect on the GBP, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.2113 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2082. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2182, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2221.

USD CAD

USD traded lower against CAD and closed at 1.3227.

The employment Change released by the Statistics Canada is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Canada. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the CAD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.

The Unemployment Rate released by the Statistics Canada is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. It is a leading indicator for the Canadian Economy. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the Canadian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Canadian economy. Normally, a decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CAD, while an increase is seen as negative or bearish.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.3279 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3251. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.334, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3373.

 

Technical Overview of USD/JPY, NZD/USD and USD/CHF Currency Pair

USD JPY

USD traded lower against JPY and closed at 105.6900.

· USD/JPY: Bears staying in control in the Asian session.
· USD/JPY4-hour chart: The pair is also at risk of extending its decline,

USD/JPY has lost some ground as the yen takes up another bid while geopolitics keep the yen bulls in business ahead of a key week on the US calendar.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 105.3 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 104.92. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 106.04 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 106.39.

NZD USD

NZD traded lower against USD and closed at 0.6468.

· NZD/USD jumps 20 pips on comments by New Zealand's Treasury that QE is less appealing.
· Treasury feels RBNZ could cut rates to the negative territory if required.

NZD/USD is recovering lost ground on comments by New Zealand's Treasury that asset purchases or quantitative easing (QE) are a less appealing tool of monetary easing.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.6402 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6359. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6478, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6512.

USD CHF

USD traded lower against CHF and closed at 0.9727.

· USD/CHF's 4-hour and daily charts are showing signs of seller exhaustion.
· The pair could rise to the 10-day moving average resistance during the day ahead.

USD/CHF could see a corrective bounce to the 10-day moving average (MA) of 1.0938 during the day ahead as technical charts are flashing early signs of a bearish-to-bullish trend change.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.9703 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9680. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9755, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9784.

 

Technical Overview of EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD Currency Pair

EUR USD

EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1169.

· EUR/USD aims to revisit 4H 100MA after taking another U-turn from near-term resistance-line.

· While 1.1283/87 can please buyers during upside break, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement can lure during post-1.1158 declines.

The Gross Domestic Product released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by Germany. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the German economic activity and health. A high reading or a better than expected number has a positive effect on the EUR, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).

The Gross Domestic Product released by the Eurostat is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the Eurozone. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the Eurozone economic activity and health. Usually, a rising trend has a positive effect on the EUR, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).

The Gross Domestic Product released by the Eurostat is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the Eurozone. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the Eurozone economic activity and health. Usually, a rising trend has a positive effect on the EUR, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1170 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1156. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1214 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1228.

GBP USD

GBP traded lower against USD and closed at 1.2058.

· GBP/USD remains on a back foot amid recent UK political news.
· Rebel MPs readying for early-September action.
· UK CPI, trade/political news in the spotlight.


The Consumer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of GBP is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.2046 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2033. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2090, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2103.


AUD USD

AUD traded lower against USD and closed at 0.6800.

· AUD/USD drops to the intra-day low after China’s July month Retail Sales and Industrial Production lagged behind market consensus and prior.
· Cautious trading and a lack of fresh clues confined the pair’s moves during the early morning.
· The US-China trade news, speech from RBA’s Debelle will provide fresh impulse.

The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

The Unemployment Rate release by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate hikes, indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Australian economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.6760 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6743. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6814, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6831.

 

Technical Overview of AUD/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF Currency Pair

AUD USD

AUD traded higher against USD and closed at 0.6747.

· AUD/USD maintaining bid tone as markets send mixed signals regarding risk.
· US yields hitting historic lows in Asia with 30-year yield below 2.0%.
· Bond market is pricing in strong chance of recession nL4N25B0GG.
· Despite moves in US Treasuries. S&P futures up over 0.40%.
· AUD/USD steady around 0.6775 - up 0.41% after better than expected Aus jobsnAZN0QH300.
· Unless bond market wrong, AUD/USD should struggle on global growth concerns.
· AUD/USD resistance at 0.6820/35 where daily highs converge with 38.2 fibo.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.6738 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6721. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6794 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6811.

USD JPY

USD traded lower against JPY and closed at 105.89.

Retail Sales m/m reflect a change in the US retail sails in the reported month compared to the previous one. The indicator is calculated based on statistics received from 5,000 retail stores of different types and sizes, and the data are then extrapolated to the whole country.
The indicator is used for estimating inflation. Its growth may have a positive effect on dollar quotes.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 105.70 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 105.48. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 106.44, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 106.66.

USD CHF

USD traded higher against CHF and closed at 0.9732.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.9712 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9697. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9762, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9777.

According to Citi Research report "With risk sentiment continuing to deteriorate by the week, investors may look to extend risk aversion trades into 2020 as:

(1) Worsening US – China trade tensions risk a disinflationary impulse from CNY heading towards 7.25 - 50;
(2) Possible risk of USD intervention by the US;
(3) Rising odds of a “No Deal” Brexit;
(4) Re-emergence of Italy political risk;
(5) Slowing global growth leading to central bank policy responses and a “race to the bottom” in rates sparking a currency war;
(6) Potential damage to US – Japan/ Europe trade relations should Trump impose tariffs on auto imports;
(7) 2020 - US presidential election year leaves scope for a more aggressive Trump;
(8) Tensions in HK, Iran, North Korea, now Argentina and India – Pakistan,"

 

Technical Overview of USD/CAD, USD/JPY and EUR/USD Currency Pair

USD CAD

USD traded lower against CAD and closed at 1.3323.

Consumer Price Index Core is released by the Bank of Canada. “Core” CPI excludes fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transportation, and tobacco products. These volatile core 8 are considered as the key indicator for inflation in Canada. Generally speaking, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude by the BoC, and that is said to be positive (or bullish) for the CAD.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.3270 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3250. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3304 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3338.

USD JPY

USD traded lower against JPY and closed at 106.62.

FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 106.36 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 106.25. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 106.70, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 106.81.

EUR USD

EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1087.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1075 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1066. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1105, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1114.

 

Technical Overview of EUR/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD Currency Pair

EUR USD

EUR traded lower against USD and closed at 1.1102.

EUR/USD failed to confirm a bullish reversal with a close above 1.1153 on Monday.
German GDP is expected to have contracted by 0.1% in the second quarter.

HICP is an index of consumer prices calculated and published by Destatis, the Statistical Office of the European Union, on the basis of a statistical methodology that has been harmonized across all EU member states. HICP is a measure of prices used by Governing Council of EU to define and assess price stability in the euro area as a whole in quantitative terms.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1079 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1057. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1138 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1175.

USD CAD

USD traded lower against CAD and closed at 1.3254.

The Gross Domestic Product Annualized released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis shows the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced within a country in a given period of time. GDP Annualized is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.3229 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3203. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3298, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3342.

AUD USD

AUD traded higher against CAD and closed at 0.6775.

The Aussie ignored upbeat Chinese data and risk-on trades on the Asian stocks. Focus remains on trade and US data.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.6732 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6713. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6774, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6797.

 

Technical Overview of NZD/USD and USD/CHF Currency Pair

NZD USD

NZD traded lower against USD and closed at 0.6362.

• NZD/USD's daily chart indicators are reporting early signs of a bullish reversal.
• Trend reversal would be confirmed above Monday's high.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.6351 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6340. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6379 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6369.

USD CHF

USD traded higher against CHF and closed at 0.9815.

• USD/CHF again confronts 50-DMA while seeking a downward resistance-line since August 01.
• 23.6% of Fibonacci retracement can offer immediate support.
• Swiss ZEW Survey – Expectations in the spotlight.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.9780 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9747. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9841, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9869.

 

Technical Overview of EUR/CNY, USD/JPY and USD/CAD Currency Pair

EUR CNY

EUR traded higher against CNY and closed at 7.9029.

The core Consumer Price Index released by Eurostat is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services excluding the volatile components like food, energy, alcohol and tobacco. The core CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive or bullish for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative.

The Euro Zone CPI released by the Eurostat captures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI is a significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the Euro Zone. Generally, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude which will be positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI™, released by Market Economics, is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questionnaires sent to purchasing executives in over 400 private manufacturing sector companies.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 7.881 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 7.860. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 7.934 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 7.967.

USD JPY

USD traded lower against JPY and closed at 106.5200.

Retail Sales m/m show the total volume of retail sales of goods and services in the past month compared with the previous one. This is a highly volatile indicator, it is seasonally adjusted.

The index allows evaluating consumer spending which is an important indicator of the national inflation.
The indicator growth can have a positive effect on yen quotes.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 105.55 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 105.33. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 106.03, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 106.29.

USD CAD

USD traded higher against CAD and closed at 1.3287.

The Gross Domestic Product released by the Statistics Canada is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by Canada. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of Canadian economic activity and health. A rising trend has a positive effect on the CAD, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish) for the CAD.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.3239 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3194. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3315, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3346.