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Craps Different Approach to Betting on the Come-Out Roll

Discussion in 'Craps Forum' started by David Medansky, Feb 6, 2015.

  1. David Medansky

    David Medansky Member Founding Member

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    I thought I would share my approach to betting on the Come-out Roll. As many of my students are aware I do not make a Pass Line bet unless I am the shooter. The reason being that once the point is established I lose control over my money. The Pass Line bet is a contract bet - - I can only win or lose. I cannot take the bet down or turn it off. That being said, I can still make a bet on the Come-out roll if I choose to do so.

    [Admin Edit (27 Feb 2015): The 2 paragraphs below were modified and 1 paragraph was removed for legal reasons at request of OP because he did not have authorization to post it.]

    I will bet $1 on the "Yo," $2 on Any Craps and $2 on any 7. If a shooter rolls an 11 I win $10 net. If a shooter rolls a 2, 3 or 12 I win $11 net. If the shooter rolls a 7 I win $5 net. Any other number then becomes the point and I lose my $5 bet.

    Compared to a $5 Pass Line bet, here are the differences: If the shooter rolls a 2, 3 or 12 the Pass Line loses $5, while I make $11. If the shooter rolls a 7, the Pass Line is paid $5, while I am paid $5 too. If a shooter rolls an 11 the pass Line is paid $5 and I make $10 net (twice as much for same amount at risk).

    Now I am sure some of you will argue that if a point is established I lose my bet while the Pass Line bet remains. That is absolutely correct. However, we will not know if you will win or lose the Pass Line bet until the shooter finishes his roll. The other advantage I have is that if I feel (think or believe) the shooter will make his point, I have the option to make a Place bet on the point.

    I am not saying this is the best way to bet, I am only providing an alternative. To my knowledge most dealers in Vegas have never heard or seen this type of bet.

    I am also sure some of you will rightfully argue that by not making a Pass Line bet I cannot get behind the line "true" odds. You are also correct. Again, I am not saying this bet is right or wrong, good or bad, I am only providing an alternative way to bet on the Come-out roll.

    [Admin Edit (25 Feb 2015): 2 paragraphs on math behind the bet removed for legal reasons at request of OP because he did not have authorization to post it.]

    If you have any questions, I am glad to do my best to answer them.

    Thank you.
    David Medansky
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 27, 2015
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  2. Grafstein_disciple

    Grafstein_disciple Member Founding Member

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    David,

    Thanks for taking the time to post this - nice to read an intelligent post on Craps ...definitely give it some thought on how your bet would impact me on the OPENING ROLL.

    I think the one thing I've noticed over the years is how few people actually play the OPENING ROLL....they basically flat bet the pass line, and some take the hit on the C/E bet - but rarely take the tact that the opening roll is indeed an advantage play ... 2 to 1 to hit the 7-11 as well as 1 in 12 to hit the Horn bet ... meaning a "quick decision" on your money 33% of the time - (4 ways to Horn plus 8 ways to Natural = 12/36 possible decisions)

    The only question I have for you is when you say

    I would think Hop Betting has major VIG (16.6%) so your losing that amount in every WIN ... losing while winning....then add the VIG on the HORN bets are 11.1% the other side of your equation ... and again your losing while winning.

    It strikes me as a nice alternative to try - but at first glance too much house edge ... I prefer to give my money a fair gamble and will take my chances on a straight bet on the Pass Line ... while boring ... the house is only grinding 1.4% off me.
     
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  3. David Medansky

    David Medansky Member Founding Member

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    Fair enough. As I stated, I am not advocating that this bet is right or wrong, good or bad, just giving some information.
    David Medansky
     
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  4. $nakeEye$

    $nakeEye$ Active Member Founding Member

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    I totally concur that the Come-Out roll wagering potential is UNDER utilized -

    The most prevalent number is a ' front line winner ' -

    IF one ' sets for the 7's ' on the come-out - lays across - then stacks the pass line wins -

    THAT in my opinion would be a more lucrative alternative than just making a simple pass line wager -

    Regards the VIG - that is the price one must pay to do ' effective business ' -

    I am also a believer of ' hopping the 7's ' on the C/O -

    AND hopping the last point number that fell to the 7-out !

    $...eE..$
     
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  5. Grafstein_disciple

    Grafstein_disciple Member Founding Member

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    Thanks Snake Eyes, and thank you David, like I said an intelligent post.

    It is quite interesting that on a roll where you are a favorite at 2-1 I rarely see anyone try anything remotely different that passline/horn ... and never increase pass line bets...it's rare.

    I had a dealer tell someone bet the pure minimum and maximum odds - that is the way to beat craps!

    I like your post David - it is definitely worth considering as well your play Snake Eyes. Of all of the DI sets, I think the all Seven set is the one I've seen have the most success.

    I'll pass the pure numbers along when I get the chance....
     
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  6. Alan Shank

    Alan Shank Member Founding Member

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    I ran some numbers on this strategy, comparing it to betting $6 on the pass line, since you are betting a total of $6 on these three bets. (I am assuming totally random dice throws, BTW.)

    Correct me if I am wrong, but I find that you have 12 ways of winning $10 (2 for 11, 4 for any carps, 2 each for the hopping sevens) and 24 ways of losing the $6. This works out to an ev of -$.67 per comeout, an HA of 11.11% and a standard deviation of $7.54. If you make 60 of these, the expectation is -$40.00, standard deviation $58.42, which means you have about a 25% chance of breaking even or better.

    For a $6 passline bet (yes, nobody bets $6, but I want to keep the bet handles the same), 60 bets, the ev is -$5.09, SD $46.47, which gives you about a 45% chance of breaking even or better.

    I ran a couple of sims, using 60 bets, a $360 bankroll (so no busts) and a $100 win goal. I ran 20,000 sessions of each.
    The Medansky comeout strategy reached the $100 goal 2.46% of the time, and had an average net outcome of -$39.40, SD $58.75. 5023 sessions won, 11 broke even and 14966 lost. The $6 pass reached the goal 2.67% of the time, with an average net outcome of -$7.45, SD $43.99. 8595 sessions won, 1344 broke even and 10061 lost.

    It seems clear that the high edge on these bets is a serious handicap, and the fact that they work against each other lowers the volatility so that you need to be quite lucky to overcome the negative ev. For me, the allure of the prop bets is the high variance and the possibility, although unlikely, of a nice payoff. If you make 30 bets on the 12, for example, if you win once you win $1, but if you win twice you win $32, and there is a .202 probability of winning two OR MORE. I always bet most of my money on pass/odds, but now and then I like to take a shot at a 30-to-1 bet. The house does not like high variance much, and that is why these bets carry high edges.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
     
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  7. David Medansky

    David Medansky Member Founding Member

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    Hi Alan:
    Thank you for taking the time to do some analysis of the alternative come-out roll bet. It is appreciated. However, you made a few assumptions that are not exactly true. The first assumption is that I bet on every shooter on every come-out roll. I do not. I watch the table to see if any horn numbers or sevens are being rolled on come-out rolls. If they aren't, I simply don't make the bet. The other issue (which I intentionally omitted) is that it can be a bet for dice influencers, if they choose. I do not want to get into a discussion on dice influencing. That is not my specialty and I prefer to keep my opinions to myself. We can all agree that craps is a negative expectation game. And if someone made the same bet every roll, they will lose. All I was doing was trying to make a suggestion for craps players to think about. Again, I am not saying it is a good bet or bad bet, that it is right or wrong. All I am saying is that based on my experience (not simulations) it has been profitable for me. I'm certain there are other craps players who have the opposite experience. On another note, I will sometimes make this $6 bet if a horn number is rolled, instead of a World bet. Again, based on my experience, sometimes horn numbers repeat, or will skip a number and then repeat. For me, it is worth taking the risk to make this bet. I usually win about 60% of the time when I make this bet. It is not perfect and there are times when I do lose money. Just something for craps players to think about.
    Personally, it doesn't matter to me how a person bets. All that matters for me is if they are winning. Whatever works for a craps player to make money, they should keep doing it.
    Again, thank you for the reply and taking the time to do the analysis - - it is much appreciated.
    David
     
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  8. Alan Shank

    Alan Shank Member Founding Member

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    So, you assume that if horn numbers or sevens are "being rolled" that they will continue to do so, right? Of course, this flies in the face of the idea that dice produce independent, random outcomes.

    Of course, dice influencing is the only support for following a trend at the table. If a shooter is actually changing the probability matrix of outcomes, then betting with a trend makes sense, but I am extremely skeptical that anyone can do this.

    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
     
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  9. superrick

    superrick Active Member Founding Member

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    There is a thing that happens on craps tables and that is clumping of numbers, that is what everybody is hoping for on those come out rolls. Where they will see the 7's and 11. well the same thing can and does happen for the crap numbers, where you will see them clump together.

    If you are not shooting the worst bet on the table as far as I'm concerned is the pass-line bet. That bet will lose more then any other bet on the table, that is the reason for those so-called free odds they have. The casinos want you to bet the pass-line and they came up with the so-called free odds to get you to bet it. Now your all going to say that I'm nuts after all you read every book there is on the subject and the math of the game can't be wrong.

    So I will give you a different way of looking at the pass-line bet. If that bet was so good why is it that so many players lose money by betting it?
    Just about everybody will have a pass line bet and just about everybody will walk away from the craps table broke. Is there something wrong with the picture that all the books paint, that just by betting the pass-line and taking those so-called free odds, you will have a chance of winning at craps?

    When asked about how often some of our guys that post a lot on some of these boards are playing craps, you find out that they are very good at math, but they never play craps.
    They are lucky if they have played in the last year! You can run all of the sims you want to but you have to play craps in the real world not on some computer to see if what you are doing will work. There is no way that you can program a computer to do the same thing that is really happening on a live craps table.

    If I played craps by the math of the game I would be broke. Sorry to tell all of you that. Thinking that the table is going to conform perfectly to the math of the game is a joke. Craps is a game of risk and rewards and return on investment. If you are only getting even money on any of the bets you make you can never win, because of all of your losing bets, that are going to eat up your return on investment up!
     
  10. Alan Shank

    Alan Shank Member Founding Member

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    Of course, all sorts of patterns can occur, and are expected to occur, from random, independent events; however, they are not predictable.

    Why is it not the worst bet if you are shooting?

    Of course, you do not understand that the table IS conforming to the math of the game, which does not say you will see the "perfect 36" or the "perfect 1980" reflected in small samples.

    Questions: Do you believe that you can alter the probability matrix as a shooter?
    Do you believe that "clumping" of some outcomes indicates that the probabilities are not constant, even with "random" shooters?
     
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  11. superrick

    superrick Active Member Founding Member

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    Alan nothing is 100% predictable, but if you stand there and let a winning pattern go by, where will you be when you walk away from the craps table,..at The ATM?


    The way I look at it,. is, If I drive nothing else home to you, let it be this. It's a even money bet that locks you into a bet that is a contract bet that you the player can not take down, but guess what the casinos will break that contract if you are winning and they want to get rid of you! Yes they can take the dice off you and if that happens they are breaking their contract with you.


    I understand it all to well, it looks to me that you don,t. You seem to think that by playing by the math of the game you stand a better chance of winning,....You don't!


    Clumping is a fact on a craps table, if it wasn't your math could never after 10,000 rolls of the dice come somewhere close to what the math of the game says should happen.


    The word “should” is one word that is missed understood by just about every player out there.

    Now Alan I know that I shouldn't have to give you the many definitions of should. So I will leave you with just one:


    should
    ought to

    1. expectation

    You use should or ought to to say that you expect something to happen.

    Yes,... we are expecting something to happen, but it doesn't mean that it will happen.


    That is where the math of the game is thrown out the door, and hopefully you are on the right side of the table.


    Now not to long ago, I ask you how often you play the game, you gave me a very honest answer, when you said not to many times a year, actually it was very few times.


    Now I love guys like you that spend all your time on the math of the game, we do need guys like you, but when it comes to saying that if you don't play by the math of the game you are going to be a loser. That just doesn't hold water. I think that you know that, by will not admit it to everybody here on this board or any other one you post on , because you have so much fun playing at home with the math of the game.


    You do not have to go to the casinos to get your kicks, you do that by running every type of sims that you can trying to figure out if there is a magic bullet to bet the game of craps,..when there is none! I like many here do appreciate what you do. But when it come right down to it and you are playing craps the math of the game means nothing at all. The only thing that means anything thing to you the player is having your chips on the numbers that are being rolled.


    By now you and the other members of this and many others boards, it should be quite evident that if it wasn't for deviation we wouldn't have craps in the casinos. The players need it to win at craps and at the same time the casinos need it to get the players to keep coming back and playing. They are hoping to win when they play. The one thing about craps is there are so many bets that will allow some to win even when others are losing. That is one reason we all play the game.


    I rely on what I see happening on the tables in real live casino play, you on the other hand rely on what your computer is telling you, after running a sim on it, the one thing you don't get is that none of us will be there for the 10,000 rolls of the dice that it takes for your sim to run in a real casino. We are only there for a very short time, and the worst possible scenario could be happening to us when we are there.


    Does understanding the math of the game help you when you are playing craps,.. Of course it does, if you don't play by it 100% of the time and can realize that you need your chips on what numbers are being rolled.


    No,.... I can not predict the future, but the one thing I do know is if I don't have chips on the numbers that are being rolled I will be a loser when I leave the table! It works both ways, I could be on what we call a cold table and if I wasn't on the darkside I would walk away a loser!


    Again I would love to see you putting all your research to work in a live casino, so you could get a different perspective on what really happens when you have your money on the line!
     
  12. Alan Shank

    Alan Shank Member Founding Member

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    Not, I, not ever.

    This has nothing to do with me. I am not a DI. It's an even money bet, because the probability of winning it is almost .5.

    Well, you can use the math of the game to get a better chance of winning any given session. You can use the math of the game to figure a way to bet that maximizes your chances of being ahead for a long time, but always be aware of the other side of the coin -- better chance of losing lots. When you are standing at the table, the math of the game does not help you win, and I have never suggested it does.

    Clumping occurs in computer simulations, too, of course, because they produce pseudo-random numbers that are just as good as dice numbers, as has been demonstrated many times. Random does not mean "spread out evenly".

    Actually, I have never, on this forum, on the Craps Forum, on the Wizard of Vegas or in the old rec.gambling.craps news group, said that. You keep putting words in people's mouths that were never there, which is really dishonest of you.

    I never thought there was a "magic bullet", and my years of both play and programming and sims have established that, too. "Chips on numbers that are being rolled" -- IOW, if you win bets, you will win. Brilliant analysis.

    I have been saying that for years and years. Variance gives us a chance. Variance is part of the "math of the game", despite what you say.

    Once again, you mis-represent the way I do sims. I do them in multiple, short sessions, just like I play, maybe two hours' worth. Do you ever read my posts? It doesn't sound like it. You just keep repeating that when we go to the casino we are playing in the short term. Duh!

    There's that penetrating analysis again. If I win bets, I win!

    So, I ask again. When you see that a table is "cold", however you define that, do you believe that the probabilities are different?

    Well, it's not like I haven't played, you know. I started playing back in about 1979 or so. I hope to go to Reno soon for some "intensive craps action".
     
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  13. superrick

    superrick Active Member Founding Member

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    When you hit the tables I wish you all the luck in the world, let us know how you do.
     
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  14. Alan Shank

    Alan Shank Member Founding Member

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    Thank you. I usually post a trip report.
     

  15. David Medansky

    David Medansky Member Founding Member

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  16. Alan Shank

    Alan Shank Member Founding Member

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    Huh? None what?
     
  17. David Medansky

    David Medansky Member Founding Member

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    Sorry, I wasn't trying to post. It was done in error. My apologies.
     
  18. Linaway

    Linaway New Member Lineage to Founders

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    David, I'm not admin, but seems like I saw a msg asking how to edit a post. I think you must have java script activated or it will not be allowed.

    Linaway
     
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  19. David Medansky

    David Medansky Member Founding Member

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    Thank you but admin said they do not allow post to be edited once there is a reply. They want to be able to keep the integrity of the sight.
     

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