Baccarat Finally figured out something that keeps working!

There are 2 selection method in my strategy. Whenever i lose twice in a row i will switch to the other one. One method is simply house way, meaning I’ll bet on same side as the side that win in the last deal. The other method is against house, meaning I’ll bet on opposite side from the side that win in the last deal. Basically I’m trying to catch dragons or chops and get profit by following these patterns.
For example, BBB, I will bet on B. If win I’ll still bet on B until lose. Then BBBBBP, I’ll be betting on P on my next bet as I lost only one time so I’m still betting house way. If it’s turns out to be BBBBBPPP, I’m winning quite good (win 5 times). Or in another case BPB, my next bet will be P (against house), then BPBPBP, i’ll be winning 3 times, and if BPBPBB which i lost in the last bet as i would bet on P, my next bet is P (still against house as i lost only one time). Then BPBPBBPBP, i’ll still be winning 3 more times. Hopes this can explain better.

But it is still not a good bet selection especially using flat betting. It give me less than 50% win rate but still manage some gains most of the time thanks to the oscar’s grind progression method. But this oscar’s grind has a major drawback is that there is still a chance to keep losing and hit the stop loss limit which can be quite large. And sometimes can spend a long time just to win 1 unit.

I still believe that one should bet in every deal, skipping deals only due to taking breaks or interrupted by life events. As every deal is independent from previous results, waiting for trigger point or a certain pattern to place a bet is just wasting time. The reason I still need a bet selection method is I do not want to have any guesswork but to have automatic selection method that i can easily implement and just accept whatever gains or loses it finally turns out to be. So luck is still a major factor.

 

Thanks a lots Lucky John!!

 

I have come out with a new bet selection method that seems working better than my previous one. It goes like this. Bet on the side that win on the 3rd last deal. Eg if last 3 deals were BPP, i will bet on B, or if last 3 deals were PPP, i will bet on P. Then whenever see BP or BP, bet on opposite side of the last deal, otherwise always bet on the side that win on the 3rd last deal. I tested on more than 20 shoes on simulator and have very good results. Going to try this in casino tomorrow

 

I’ve also done some simulation and find that flat betting using higher wager give better results than using progression with lower wager. I’ve watched videos or read articles where people are saying progression is better and they have results to show. But i think they did their evaluation wrong. When comparing between flat bet and progression, we cannot use the same unit size. Because say one unit is $10, progression will at times be betting with $50-$100 or more per wager, and this is not a fair comparison with flat bet of $10. We should compare with same bankroll amount. A progression using $10 per unit usually needs a bankroll of $300 while flat betting using $25 per unit can have bankroll of $300 also. Then when you compare progression ($10) vs flat bet ($25) using simulations, the flat bet ($25) wins big time more than the progression ($10).
And i find flat betting is more fun as i don’t need to be mindful of the wager size management and can just focus on trying to improve my win rate.

 

Just wonderin what the logic is behind this bets selection style you propose, hey hey.

 

no logic. Just want to have a betting method that can leave out any guesswork at each deal but the method should bet as randomly as possible between banker and player. Then i will test run the procedure on simulation and this by far is better than betting all one sided.

 

Hi Jae... Do you bet every single hand per shoe or just waiting for a trigger?

 

Mathematically, betting Banker only is the best bet selection, since it loses the least. Betting Banker only loses 1.06% and betting Player only loses 1.24%. All other bet selections will lose between -1.06% and -1.24%, depending on how many bets your bet selection makes on Banker and how many on Player. Assuming, your bet selection makes 50% on Banker and 50% on Player, your bet selection will lose 1.15%.

Betting Banker only is marginally better than any other bet selection. No mechanical bet selection will give positive expectation, flat betting.

 

People, I have the betting sekectiinbw

You’re absolutely right, but gamblers being gamblers will, in the majority, swear blind that the fortunate outcome they experienced “last time” proves that their lucky system works above all others... probability and mathematics are the rulers of this game, my friends... exceptions always cloud the issue for the superstitious and the greedy...

 

Hi, Lucky John
I understand 3rd last deal.
But I don't understand this statement "whenever see BP or BP, bet on opposite side of the last deal" ???

Please explain more detail....
Thanks

 

Oh sorry it’s a typo. I meant BP or PB.

 

I’m now trying this new method I’ve come out with and seems giving better results than before. Btw i’m playing the baccarat version where banker win has no commission but when win on banker 6 the house will take 50% commission. This type of baccarat increase the house edge on banker to about 1.5%, more than the edge on player. So betting on Player is the lower house edge for this type of version. I always play in a casino.

 

This is my new strategy:
Using X and O, where both can mean banker or player, I will always bet on X when last hands are XO or XX. But when the last 5 hands are OXXOO or OXXOOX, I will bet on X.
I will do flat betting of $25 per wager and bet at every hand. If I win $100, I stop and take a short break. Later I can return to the same table or go to another table. If I lose $250 in a session, I’ll stop and go home. I’ve tried these for past 7 days and I haven’t lost. Each day i win only $50-$100 but yesterday was the biggest win for me, winning $500 in just one hour using the above strategy. But I foresee this strategy can still lose money. It’s still didn’t improve any edge. I’m just lucky so far. Each day i only spend about 2 hours in the casino.

 

Playing Player in this version is the right play. I like your money management. You will win 4 units on 10 days and lose 10 units on 4 days approximately. 10 days win will be slightly less due to house edge. This strategy does not give you edge, but a good way to play.

You won $500 on one day. This means you won 20 units or 5 consecutive sessions of 4 units win. The probability of this happening is (10/14)^5=18.6% or 1 in 5.4. There seems to be a typo. Is it XXOOX?

Keep winning. Nothing beats success.

 

Yes i was very lucky. There is one session i was down 6 units and then as i bet in every hand, the tide turned and become favourable and return to breakeven and then up by 4 units and i took a break. Then when i return to the same table the trend becomes bad right after i left, and if i didn’t stopped at 4 units profit i would have lost.
It’s no typo. I am also trying to ride on this trend: XXOOXXOOXXOOXXOO. But so far failed to. Most of my wins come from extended chops and dragons.

 

Thanks for sharing your thoughts about winning strategy lucky John, appreciate it!

 

You are welcome. Just an update, I had lost $250 in a session. Then I change my strategy and seems to be doing better so far. This time I’m using randomness to beat randomness. haha. For each hand, I’ll make a decision on what to bet, no more having a fixed bet selection system. This is how I make the bet out of these 4 choices: 1) Bet on X when last 2 hands are XA, where A is any side, and X can be banker or player. This will be my default choice. This bet will catch extended chops and dragons well. 2) Bet on O when last 2 hands are XA, means opposite to whatever X is. This is just by gut feel. 3) Follow the majority. I play at table so when all other gamblers are betting on banker I may follow and bet on banker. At least if i lose it’s can be comforting to know others also lose with me. 4) Follow a certain player who seems to be getting correct most of the time.
Most of the time my bet selection will be on option (1) and occasionally on options 2, 3 , 4. Have tried for several sessions in past few days and have been making small profits and not hit my stop loss yet. Seems promising for now but will see how this goes for my future sessions.

 

Hello,

In your 16 years of playing. Have you ever come across a winning system? I`ve got drawn to Baccarat from Tony Robbins I've been to 1 of his seminars where he talks about a client that e has which made 80% of his fortune playing baccarat. This is where my interest is so peaked.

 

Hi, yes I believed such winning systems do exist but will never be revealed in public or sold to anyone. So all systems sellers are confirmed scammers and they never have any winning system. Now if a person discovered a winning system, he naturally will never reveal to anyone. And he will also limit his winnings to be enough to have a very good life and not trying to be billionaire from playing baccarat. Why is this so? If he wins too much or he revealed his strategy to some people, then more people will use the winning strategy, the casino will go burst and he will lose his source of income as well. Also people who knows his strategy will try to sell as if it’s theirs.
A person who can win consistently from gambling in casino will see casino as business partner, not an opponent. Casino’s revenue only comes from gamblers who lose money. So the person will just take a small portion of the revenue by having consistent wins, so the casino can still be around and he can still derived good income from casino.

 

I agree. I hope we can work on somethng that keeps winning.