Baccarat Flat Bet Only Thread

You also can think of me as a nut job but, I have believed for years that the math on banker being dominant is a scam encouraged by the casino to get you to accept willingly the commision. It encourages bets for a lose lose. Set up to grind you to nothing. Topic for another thread of course.

 

Sounds exactly like it came out of the Reading Randomness thread. I have been thumping this point since 2006. You might recall that I suggested observing the "Effectiveness States?" I congratulate you on saying this in another way, written at least 8 years ago and read by you. Nice comment. I was vilified at Gambler's Glen for suggesting this point.

This is progress. It's not easy to know what you are seeing and to also have the experience and skill to exploit it. I have discovered that practice is the best teacher. I have successfully taught others to see common characteristic that exist in the Even Chance games. I did this with a gambling forum topic thread to see if it could do the job by just reading it and practicing. I even show the expected results achieved by those that make the real effort without giving up. And that thread even tells why most people give up. They come with predisposed opinions that they firstly use to validate their expectations. So they give up if they run into that. HAHAHA LOL. Just exactly what I hope most people do. That leaves more for the rest of us that don't give up.

It's a skill baby! So is surfing PipeLine.

 

You guys have got to widen your list of characteristics. I'll try to find my list for you. The more characteristics you can identify the more chances you will have advantage conditions to exploit. These are from my EC only things that are very common occurring. This is best done using a big brain and the skill of seeing things with visual dexterity. You want to see an opportunity in less than a second without having to reassemble it in your mind like you do with a matrix.

 

Here: Let's see if you can learn visual dexterity and singles on the weak side all in one comment?

This is common place randomness:

Code:

| 1 | 2 | 3 |  | B  R | O  E | L  H |
| X |   |   |  | X    |    X | X    |
| X |   |   |  |    X |    X | X    |
|   |   | X |  | X    |    X |    X |
|   | X |   |  |    X |    X | X    |
|   | X |   |  | X    |    X |    X |
|   |   | X |  |    X |    X |    X |
| X |   |   |  | X    |    X | X    |
|   | X |   |  |    X |    X | X    |
|   | X |   |  |    X |    X | X    |
|   | X |   |  | X    | X    | X    |
| X |   |   |  | X    | X    | X    |
| X |   |   |  | X    |    X | X    |
|   | X |   |  | X    |    X |    X |
| X |   |   |  | X    |    X | X    |
|   |   | X |  |    X |    X |    X |
|   |   | X |  | X    | X    |    X |
|   | X |   |  | X    |    X |    X |
|   | X |   |  |    X | X    |    X |
|   |   | X |  |    X |    X |    X |
| X |   |   |  | X    | X    | X    |
|   |   | X |  | X    | X    |    X |
|   | X |   |  | X    | X    | X    |
| X |   |   |  | X    |    X | X    |
|   | X |   |  | X    |    X |    X |
|   | X |   |  | X    | X    | X    |
|   | X |   |  |    X | X    |    X |
|   | X |   |  | X    | X    | X    |
|   | X |   |  | X    |    X |    X |
|   | X |   |  |    X | X    |    X |
|   |   | X |  | X    | X    |    X |
| X |   |   |  |    X | X    | X    |
|   |   | X |  | X    |    X |    X |
|   |   | X |  | X    | X    |    X |
|   | X |   |  | X    |    X |    X |
|   |   | X |  |    X | X    |    X |
| X |   |   |  |    X | X    | X    |
|   |   | X |  |    X | X    |    X |
|   | X |   |  |    X |    X | X    |
| X |   |   |  |    X | X    | X    |
|   | X |   |  | X    | X    | X    |
|   |   | X |  |    X |    X |    X |
| X |   |   |  |    X |    X | X    |
| X |   |   |  |    X | X    | X    |
|   | X |   |  |    X |    X | X    |
|   |   | X |  |    X |    X |    X |
| X |   |   |  | X    |    X | X    |
|-----------------------------------|
|   | X |   |  |    X | X    |    X |
|   | X |   |  | X    |    X |    X |
| X |   |   |  | X    |    X | X    |
|   |   | X |  | X    | X    |    X |
|   | X |   |  | X    | X    | X    |
| X |   |   |  | X    |    X | X    |
|   | X |   |  | X    |    X |    X |
|   | X |   |  |    X | X    |    X |
| X |   |   |  | X    |    X | X    |
|   | X |   |  | X    | X    | X    |
|   |   | X |  |    X |    X |    X |
|-----------------------------------|

Notice that the Black / Red section, that the weak side hits as singles or an occasional double while the strong side is much stronger.

 

I'm drawing a blank on the meaning of HT TH.

Yah, I like the idea that the derived roads can give me ar least three distinct data streams.

Today's w/l:
W LLLLL W LL WWWWW L
WWWWW LL
WWW L WW L WW L
W L WWWWW L
L WW L W LL WW LLL W LL WWWWWW L W LL W.

W 39. L 27. 59% if I added correctly.

So still about 59 % strike for last 209 live wagers or 41 units if flat. I estimate that's about nine hours play. But no way I'm gonna get that long term.

I Estimate that there's a 4:1 relationship between flat bettng and my progression to earn the same $.

I do think my selection has the best of the maths but that rate can't last.

Cheers

 

Isn't it basically the same? You need to increase the win strike of player and banker about the same percentage to break even. No?

 

Let's see if you can color the wins and loses to show the W and L. Or is this a quiz?

 

I'm gonna try to parse this out. It'll take me a bit i think.

 

There is an answer in the Reading Randomness thread where I got the chart.

wow! look how the italic text in a quote of the chart above takes away the ability to use the chart for visual dexterity.

I answered the question there with another question:

Code:

| B  R |    #
|    X | -- 01
|------| -- 02
|    X | -- 03
|    X | -- 04
|    X | -- 05
| X    | -- 06
|    X | -- 07
|    X | -- 08
| X    | -- 09
|    X | -- 10
|    X | -- 11
|    X | -- 12
| X    | -- 13
|    X | -- 14
| X    | -- 15
|    X | -- 16
|    X | -- 17
|    X | -- 18
| X    | -- 19
|    X | -- 20
| X    | -- 21
|    X | -- 22
|    X | -- 23
| X    | -- 24
|    X | -- 25
| X    | -- 26
| X    | -- 27
| X    | -- 28
|    X | -- 29
| X    | -- 30
|    X | -- 31
|    X | -- 32
| X    | -- 33
| X    | -- 34
| X    | -- 35
|    X | -- 36
|    X | -- 37
| X    | -- 38
|    X | -- 39
|-----| -- 40
| X    | -- 41
| X    | -- 42
| X    | -- 43
|    X | -- 44
| X    | -- 45
|    X | -- 46
|    X | -- 47
| X    | -- 48
| X    | -- 49
|    X | -- 50
|    X | -- 51
| X    | -- 52
| X    | -- 53
|    X | -- 54
| X    | -- 55
|    X | -- 56
| X    | -- 57
| X    | -- 58
| X    | -- 59
|    X | -- 60
| X    | -- 61
|    X | -- 62
|    X | -- 63
|    X | -- 64
| X    | -- 65
| X    | -- 66
| X    | -- 67
| X    | -- 68
| X    | -- 69
|    X | -- 70
| X    | -- 71
| X    | -- 72
| X    | -- 73
| X    | -- 74
| X    | -- 75
| X    | -- 76
| X    | -- 77
|    X | -- 78
| X    | -- 79
| X    | -- 80
| X    | -- 81
| X    | -- 82
| X    | -- 83
| X    | -- 84
|    X | -- 85
| X    | -- 86
| X    | -- 87
|    X | -- 88
|    X | -- 89
|    X | -- 90
| X    | -- 91
|    X | -- 92
|    X | -- 93
| X    | -- 94
| X    | -- 95
|    X | -- 96
| X    | -- 97
| X    | -- 98
| X    | -- 99

I rewrote my online gambling app to just show the Black /Red chart and the number of that spin as a reference. Now all you can see is what I mean when I teach. Today's lesson is on seeing a common and simple characteristic. This single aspect chart could be for Baccarat, Blackjack or Craps as well as for Roulette.

From line 1 to 26 Black always hits as a single. This is a common enough formation. If it holds up for a while, and it really does, you can strike a winning blow on Red right after each Black single. This holds up long enough to win 3 net big win bets. You play it until it no longer holds up. There are variations of smaller bets to bet more on the Red domination too. But the single Black streak is a monster winner.

Now look at Black dominate from lines 65 to 87. Black is the monster while Red hits as singles only. Imagine not knowing how to exploit this. Oh, that's right, it's garbage. I've heard all the excuses in the world about how nobody can know when to jump in on this stuff. Well here is the secret. You jump in and if you are in the favorable effectiveness zone then you keep going. If you are in the losing streak zone then you stop making big bets.You win by attrition. In other words you win the session. All you need is a few more wins than losses. How much you need to win is far more important than just blazing away to be the big winner. You must hold on to your money while you wait for these opportunities. No digging deep holes.

 

Here is the order for learning RR.

1.) Learn to see characteristics in a live playing chart using visual dexterity.

2.) Learn a large list of common occurring randomness characteristics.

3.) Learn how to read the w/L list for live play and to detect the live play effectiveness results.

4.) Learn how to attack the winning condition and to minimize damage to your bankroll during any other times.

5.) Learn how to end the session on the two stop play points. In this case 3 net win big bets or 7 net lost big bets.

6.) Keep track of all session results and calculate the changes to your results as you improve. Document yourself.

That is the validation process supporting the Reading Randomness theory.

 

Did you forget that THIS thread is about flat bet? And why make any bet in the losing streak zone? Just sit and wait for the "hot" zone.

J

 

Continues todayshoes.
1. WWW LL W LLLL W LL W
2. WW L WWWWW L
3. WW LL WWWWW L...W LLLL W LLL W LL WW L W
4. LL WW LL W L W LL WWWWW L...LL W LL WWWW LL W

W 41 L 37 so 52.5%

To date W 135 L 102 or 57%

Stop loss/win. ?? My exit points are not written in stone. If things aren't going well. I would just stick it out until I recoup losses like in shoe number one. On the other hand if I do get a bunch of WIAR I will generally just quit right there and start a new shoe as in shoe number two.

So in true number three you see three dots after a loss. Generally I will just leave there. But I decided to just go ahead and see how it played out. The same thing happened in shoe number four. Even though it seemed to work out better in the end, it probably was a mistake to continue after the 5 WIAR.

My experience tells me that shoes generally don't stay the same. What goes up will generally go down, so it's time to quit after a nice run and start anew. It's a subjective decision but a good rule to follow.

Cheers

 

Total agreement with this post, has everything you need to understand how to successfully negotiate the game.
The novice, no disrespect intended to anyone that fits the category knowingly or unknowingly, will find the only thing they will find disruptive with that posted quote is the “ experience” the op has come to acquire from trial and error. The novice can circumvent a lot of losses ( bankroll death) by re reading the original post.
Good post , cheers

 

Thanks for those words, Punkcity.

Also I don't think you can overemphasize the fact that playing Stadium with multiple shoes or continuous shuffle is a huge advantage being able to come in and out any time you want.

On table I used to play every hand. After a while, I would just play part shoe and then have to sit and wait for a new shoe. Where I play I can pretty much sit for a lot of hands without getting hassled. But when I stop then I have to sit and wait for the next shoe. Push come to shove I could still do it but it's a real disadvantage.

When you see my win loss above, sometimes it's from the beginning of a shoe, sometimes it's in the middle of the shoe.

I play derived roads and yeah sometimes I don't like the signature of the big road so I won't play that shoe section but it basically doesn't matter. I don't know what's going to happen.

J

 

100% correct. It's because I must pay for the seat at the table with a minimum bet of $5. The flat bet is the big bet. It's an Native Indian casino out west typically. Some are starting to let you sit out bets. But you had better be placing bets at least once every other spin. I only mentioned this because it's not pure flat betting.

 

I started out in hunting the super win streak only. So I would allow myself to dig deep holes. I don't play that way anymore. That's why I use rigid stop loss/stop win points. I'm a master at exploiting the super win streak. But it does not happen but mostly one time in a ten hour session, that's tracking 6 unique groupings also. That's around 300 spins on a busy night.

 

I discovered stadium seating Roulette and fell in love with it. I didn't have to bet every spin. It was near El Cajon in the San Diego area. They had an 80 console seating for one active table. I watched a guy cash in with a two inch thick stack of $100 bills there one day. I took $250 and turned it into $1,400 in four days playing no more than 3 hours per day.

They asked me if I was playing a "genius" game. They gave me a player card upgrade right there at the console on the fourth day. I took the money and did some work on my RV for winter coming up and bought a new guitar and multi effects console. It's my favorite spot on the west coast, The Barona Casino. They love Roulette there and have the very best street tacos in the food court also. I was camped out in the Thousand Trails park by the Olympic Training Center at Otay Lake, Chula Vista Elite Athlete Training Center back then.

 

can you explin in more detail or pm me please

 

thats a nice perfect example. How many wins i should get with ten cents, before starting with 0,20 cents and so on

 

I've been away today my first day back. This is my fixed bet placement. One thing I've been working on. And thinking about is when to exit the shoe so I started a criteria for that. I did that here. This is my update to the original I posted. I'm not flat betting. I do consider fifty three percent the absolute minimum to even consider flat betting. I'll have to do another fifteen hundred shoes in the same manner to see what I think about the standard deviation of my bet selection.

Cheers

9.12.23
L WWWWW L WWWW LL W LL W L WW
L WWW L W LLLLL W LLL WWWW LLLL WL WW
WWW L WWW LLL W L WW L W L W LL WW
W LLLL WWW L W L W LL W LLLL W LLLL WW
WW L W L WW LLL WW L WWWWW LL WW
WWW L W L WW LLLLLL WW
W L WWW L WWW LL WW L W LWW L WW

W 84. L. 69. 54.9%
Total to date W 630 L 546 = 1176 wagers 53.5%