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Roulette For you morons that follow the tote boards

Discussion in 'Roulette Forum' started by jbs, Apr 13, 2018.

  1. Sharptracker

    Sharptracker Member

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    No i mean in their way to attack a wheel, they were playing all positive numbers if their table beats table A.

    Table A represents the number 1 table in the simulation of his rng

    What was the SD of this table A?
     
  2. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    I haven't checked it. I'll check table A right now..First I need to find table A
     
  3. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    Please give me a link to the table A that you're referring to.
     
  4. Sharptracker

    Sharptracker Member

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    Wait a minute, i give you the link on Roulette place, where i ve seen the chart
     
  5. Sharptracker

    Sharptracker Member

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  6. Bago

    Bago Active Member

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    http://www.telemadrid.es/noticias/noticia/treinta-minutos-de-profesion-jugador

    El programa ha estado con Gonzalo García-Pelayo, veterano fundador del denominado “Clan de los Pelayos”, la controvertida saga familiar que, años atrás, desarrolló un curioso método matemático para predecir los resultados de la ruleta, basándose en los pequeños defectos técnicos de las mesas de juego. Con una inversión inicial de 300.000 pesetas, este clan llegó a obtener ingresos por valor de 200 millones de las antiguas pesetas. Después de una batalla legal en los tribunales y de su veto en los casinos de España, el Supremo falló que esta familia no realizaban trampas, sino que únicamente recurría al “ingenio” para ganar en el juego. García-Pelayo explica a Treinta Minutos en qué consistía su método y recupera recuerdos de Las Vegas y Montecarlo: apuntaban cuidadosamente durante 15 días los resultados de 5000 bolas por mesa, y realizaban una estadística que les permitía lograr la “radiografía” de cada ruleta, de cada mesa, detectar las denominadas “cojeras”. García-Pelayo reconoce que, hoy día, emplea a los denominados “submarinos”, jugadores y oteadores que recorren los casinos en busca de mesas con defectos, sin vinculación familiar con el apellido del clan.
     
  7. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    I think I can tell you what it is that Lucky's attempting to do. The table represents a crude type of goodness of fit test. It's kind of like chi square.
    The table doesn't represent the number of times a number has hit, but rather how far outside of the normal the numbers are hitting for the entire wheel. That's very similar to what chi square does. Think of it as being a probability/chance of randomness for the entire wheel.

    Measuring the chance of randomness for the entire wheel can be an effective way of finding a biased wheel by blindly tracking numbers, but it can fool the player, especially if the spin sample is low, and the chi square is in a bit of a questionable range. If someone was to run enough RNG simulations, probability predicts that some of the samples would appear to mimic bias. That's why it's important to run out of sample tests, and to limit the degrees of freedom being tested by making some kind of prediction based on visible defects in advance.
    Of course there are some spin samples collected that are so far outside of the predicted range that there's no doubt that the spin samples come from a biased wheel.

    Outside of fitness testing there are other indicators of bias. The shapes of data graphs can pinpoint the cause of bias, depending on the make, model, brand of wheel. For example loose frets (found only on some models of wheels) will produce a different type of graph than a wheel with rise and fall of the pocket compartment.
     
    Last edited: Apr 15, 2018
  8. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    Goodness of fit testing has been around for a very very long time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chi-squared_test

    "In the 19th century, statistical analytic methods were mainly applied in biological data analysis and it was customary for researchers to assume that observations followed a normal distribution, such as Sir George Airy and Professor Merriman, whose works were criticized by Karl Pearson in his 1900 paper.[1]

    Until the end of 19th century, Pearson noticed the existence of significant skewness within some biological observations. In order to model the observations regardless of being normal or skewed, Pearson, in a series of articles published from 1893 to 1916,[2][3][4][5]devised the Pearson distribution, a family of continuous probability distributions, which includes the normal distribution and many skewed distributions, and proposed a method of statistical analysis consisting of using the Pearson distribution to model the observation and performing the test of goodness of fit to determine how well the model and the observation really fit." -Wiki
     
  9. Sharptracker

    Sharptracker Member

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    "apuntaban cuidadosamente durante 15 días los resultados de 5000 bolas por mesa, y realizaban una estadística que les permitía lograr la “radiografía” de cada ruleta, de cada mesa, detectar las denominadas “cojeras”."

    Right. I misunderstood because on that topic it was about 2000. 5K is a bit better yes, but variance could have "fooled" them many time, even while they winning.

    Anyone, those links seems to be very interesting, i ll take time to visit them all!
     
  10. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    Sharp,

    If you want to take a ride on a biased wheel and see what it's like at various stages along the way, then I can give you a demo.
     
  11. Bago

    Bago Active Member

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    Fortunately for them, they didn't apply your "anything is possible" theory despite their stats showing the contrary and won their Million Euros.
     
  12. Sharptracker

    Sharptracker Member

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    I admit that i laugh, but they are not the only gamblers (even pure gamblers) that won a lot of money. There are some people who hit the Slot Jackpot twice within 6 months...
    Personnally i allready seen biased numbers after 5/6K and went down after. But who know what was it or what happened...

    Sure of course i 'm interested. You know, you were talking about opportunity. where i live the law makes that it is easily possible to have a casino... there are plenty little casino everywhere where i've seen strong wobble allready.
     
  13. Bago

    Bago Active Member

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    Sure, tell to Snowman also that all his skeleton charts are pure coincidence despite a big chi-square and that his winnings are pure luck. You need an emergency appointment with a psychiatrist.
     
  14. Sharptracker

    Sharptracker Member

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    Well at first sight i'm sorry but yes it could be.

    First data helps me to form an hypothesis, then if it confirms on the next sample... i start only to give up my theory.
     
  15. Sharptracker

    Sharptracker Member

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    And you could easily be fooled (i'm talking only by consulting datas) with 5K, as i've seen personally.

    So i doubt about Pelayos, especialy when they decided to play -5.26% pure non sense
     
  16. Bago

    Bago Active Member

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    You obviously don't know that there are more biased double zero wheels than biased single zero wheels in the World.
     
  17. Sharptracker

    Sharptracker Member

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    In so far as they didn't mention to separate direction, and that they directly attack after first tracking i can seriously doubt that it was a gambler mistake. Or they simply agree to split the edge and to face more variance.

    Something fishy there...
     
    Last edited: Apr 15, 2018
  18. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    In some parts of the world the wheels don't change spin direction every other spin.
     
  19. Bago

    Bago Active Member

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    Would you rather play a double zero wheel (-5,26%) with 3 numbers having a long term hit rate of 1 in 26 or a single zero wheel (-2.7%) with 3 numbers having a 1 in 32 hit rate?
     
  20. Sharptracker

    Sharptracker Member

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    Sure a 00 but all the staging and incoherence in the way they did makes me doubt. I don't doubt they won money but i doubt about the way described. Honestly we're not far from a classic system.
     
    Last edited: Apr 15, 2018

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