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POUND LITTLE CHANGED AFTER U.K. HALIFAX HOUSE PRICE DATA



UK Halifax house price data for September has been released at 2.00 am ET Thursday. The pound changed little against its major rivals after the data.

The pound was trading at 1.3577 against the greenback, 151.36 against the yen, 1.2598 against the franc and 0.8507 against the euro around 2:04 am ET.

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EURO MIXED AHEAD OF GERMAN TRADE DATA



At 2.00 am ET Friday, Destatis is slated to issue Germany's foreign trade data for August. Exports are forecast to grow 0.5 percent on month, the same rate as posted in July.

Ahead of the data, the euro traded mixed against its major rivals. While it rose against the pound and the franc, it fell against the greenback. Against the yen, it held steady.

The euro was worth 1.1549 against the greenback, 129.22 against the yen, 0.8488 against the pound and 1.0738 against the franc at 1:55 am ET.

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EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: ITALY INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT DATA DUE



Industrial production data from Italy is due on Monday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Statistics Norway releases consumer and producer prices for September. Inflation is forecast to rise to 4 percent from 3.4 percent in August. In the meantime, foreign trade and GDP figures are due.

At 3.00 am ET, the Czech Statistical Office is scheduled to issue consumer prices for September. Economists expect inflation to advance to 4.5 percent from 4.1 percent in August.

In the meantime, unemployment and current account figures are due from Turkey.

At 4.00 am ET, Italy's Istat is slated to issue industrial production for August. Output is expected to fall 0.3 percent on month, in contrast to the 0.8 percent rise in July.

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POUND LITTLE CHANGED AFTER UK UNEMPLOYMENT DATA



At 2.00 am ET Tuesday, the Office for National Statistics has released UK unemployment data. The pound changed little against its major rivals after the data.

The pound was trading at 1.3607 against the greenback, 154.12 against the yen, 1.2617 against the franc and 0.8497 against the euro around 2.05 am ET.

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POUND LITTLE CHANGED AFTER U.K. GDP DATA



At 2.00 am ET Wednesday, the Office for National Statistics has released UK GDP, industrial and construction output and foreign trade figures. The pound changed little against its major counterparts after the data.

The pound was trading at 1.3608 against the greenback, 154.37 against the yen, 1.2649 against the franc and 0.8487 against the euro around 2:01 am ET.

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AUSTRALIA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE CLIMBS TO 4.6% IN SEPTEMBER



The jobless rate in Australia came in at a seasonally adjusted 4.6 percent in September, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.

That was up from 4.5 percent in August, although it was shy of expectations for 4.8 percent.

The Australian economy lost 138,000 jobs last month, slightly worse than forecasts for the loss of 137,500 jobs following the loss of 146,300 jobs in August.

The participation rate tumbled to 64.5 percent, missing forecasts for 64.7 percent and down sharply from 65.2 percent in the previous month.

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NEW ZEALAND MANUFACTURING INDEX DUE ON FRIDAY



New Zealand will on Friday see September results for the Performance of Manufacturing Index from BusinessNZ, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity, In August, the PMI score was 40.1.

Indonesia will release September numbers for imports, exports and trade balance. Imports are expected to surge 50 percent on year, down from 55.26 percent in August. Exports are called higher by an annual 51.57 percent, slowing from 64.1 percent in the previous month. The trade surplus is pegged at $3.84 billion, down from $4.74 billion a month earlier.

Japan will provide August figures for its tertiary industry index; in July, the index was down 0.6 percent on month.

China will see September numbers for foreign direct investment; in August, FDI jumped 22.3 percent on year.

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SINGAPORE NON-OIL DOMESTIC EXPORTS RISE JUST 1.2% IN SEPTEMBER



The total value of Singapore's non-oil domestic exports was up a seasonally adjusted 1.2 percent on month in September, the Singapore Department of Statistics said on Monday.

That was shy of expectations for an increase of 2.4 percent following the upwardly revised 3.5 percent decline in August (originally -3.6 percent).
On a yearly basis, non-oil domestic exports jumped 12.3 percent - exceeding forecasts for a gain of 9.6 percent following the 2.7 percent gain in the previous month.

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RBA MINUTES ON TAP FOR TUESDAY



The Reserve Bank of Australia will on Tuesday release the minutes from its monetary policy meeting on October 5, headlining a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

At the meeting, the RBA kept its monetary policy unchanged, leaving its benchmark lending rate steady at the record low of 0.10 percent. The board also voted to continue with the purchase of government securities at the rate of A$4 billion a week until at least mid-February 2022.

The central bank in Indonesia will wrap up its monetary policy meeting and then announce its decision on interest rates; the central bank is widely expected to keep its benchmark lending rate steady at 3.50 percent.

Finally, the markets in Malaysia and Indonesia are closed on Tuesday to honor the birthday of the Prophet Muhammad; they will return to action on Wednesday.

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ESTONIA PRODUCER PRICES RISE IN SEPTEMBER



Estonia's producer prices increased in September, data from Statistics Estonia showed on Wednesday.

The producer price index grew 19.2 percent year-on-year in September.

On a month-on-month basis, producer prices rose 2.8 percent in September.

"Compared to August, the index was mostly affected by price increases in electricity production and in the manufacture of wood products," Eveli Sokman, leading analyst at Statistics Estonia, said.

Import prices rose 2.3 percent monthly in September and gained 17.8 percent from a year ago.

Export prices grew 1.8 percent monthly in September and increased 18.2 percent yearly.

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UK BUDGET LOGS SECOND BIGGEST SEPTEMBER DEFICIT ON RECORD



The UK budget registered its second biggest deficit for the month of September since the records began in 1993, the Office for National Statistics said on Thursday.

Public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks was GBP 21.8 billion in September, the second-highest September borrowing since monthly records began in 1993. This was GBP 7.0 billion less than in September 2020.

In the financial year-to-September 2021, PSNB excluding banks totaled GBP 108.1 billion 2021. This was also the second largest financial year-to-September borrowing on record and was GBP 101.2 billion less than in the same period last year.

Further, data showed that public sector net debt excluding public sector banks came in at GBP 2.218 trillion at the end of September, or around 95.5 percent of gross domestic product, the highest ratio since the 98.3 percent recorded in March 1963.

The ONS said the extra funding required by government coronavirus support schemes, combined with reduced cash receipts and a fall in GDP, have all helped to push public sector net debt to the current level.

In September, central government receipts grew 11 percent annually and expenditure dropped 1.6 percent.

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POUND LITTLE CHANGED AFTER U.K. RETAIL SALES DATA



At 2.00 am ET Friday, the Office for National Statistics has released UK retail sales data for September. The pound changed little against its major rivals after the data.

The pound was trading at 1.3795 against the greenback, 157.28 against the yen, 1.2663 against the franc and 0.8428 against the euro around 2:05 am ET.

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FINLAND PRODUCER PRICE INFLATION ACCELERATES IN SEPTEMBER



Finland's producer price inflation increased in September, data from Statistics Finland showed on Monday. Producer prices increased 19.1 percent year-on-year in September, after a 15.5 percent rise in August.

The increase in the producer prices for manufactured products was particularly attributable to risen prices of oil products, basic metals and timber from September last year.

Import prices grew 18.6 percent annually in September and export prices rose by 20.9 percent. On a month-on-month basis, producer prices rose 2.3 percent in September, following a 1.4 percent increase in the prior month.

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FINLAND JOBLESS RATE FALLS IN SEPTEMBER



Finland's jobless rate decreased in September, figures from Statistics Finland showed on Tuesday.

The unemployment rate for the 15 to 74 age group fell to 7.0 percent in September from 7.5 percent in the same month last year. In August, jobless rate was 6.5 percent.

The number of unemployed persons decreased to 191,000 in September from 203,000 in the last year.

The employment rate rose to 71.7 percent in September from 71.3 percent in the same month last year. The number of employed persons grew by 17,000 from a year ago to 2.52 million.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment rate fell to 7.6 percent in September from 7.7 percent in August.

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AUSTRALIA INFLATION DATA DUE ON WEDNESDAY



Australia will on Wednesday release Q3 numbers for consumer prices, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. Inflation is tipped to rise 0.8 percent on quarter and 3.1 percent on year after gaining 0.8 percent on quarter and 3.8 percent on year in the three months prior.

Australia also will see October results for the business confidence index from ANZ; in September, the index score was -7.2.

New Zealand will provide September figures for imports, exports and trade balance. In August, imports were worth NZ$6.49 billion and exports were at NZ$4.35 billion for a trade deficit of NZ$2.144 billion.

China will see September numbers for industrial profits; in August, profits surged 49.5 percent on year.

Thailand will release September data for industrial production; in August, production was down 4.15 percent on year.

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AUSTRALIA EXPORT PRICES CLIMB 6.2% ON QUARTER IN Q2



Export prices in Australia were up 6.2 percent on quarter in the third quarter of 2021, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - slowing from the 13.2 percent jump in Q2.

Import prices rose 5.4 percent on quarter, accelerating from 1.9 percent in the three months prior.

On a yearly basis, export prices skyrocketed 41.0 percent and import prices jumped 6.4 percent.

The main contributors to the jump in export prices included coal, coke and briquettes; gas, natural and manufactured goods; non-ferrous metals; meat and meat preparations; and petroleum, petroleum products and related materials.

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AUSTRALIA PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT GAINS 0.6% IN SEPTEMBER



Private sector credit in Australia was up 0.6 percent on month in September, the Reserve Bank of Australia said on Friday - matching expectations and unchanged from the August reading.

On a yearly basis, credit jumped 5.3 percent - accelerating from 4.7 percent in the previous month.

Housing credit rose 0.6 percent on month and 6.5 percent on year, while personal credit fell 0.6 percent on month and 5.3 percent on year and business credit gained 0.7 percent on month and 4.6 percent on year.

Broad money gained 1.3 percent on month and 7.9 percent on year.

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AUSTRALIA NEW HOME LOANS SINK 2.7% IN SEPTEMBER



The total value of owner-occupied home loans in Australia was down a seasonally adjusted 2.7 percent on month in September, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Monday - coming in at A$20.69 billion.

That missed expectations for a decline of 2.0 percent following the 6.6 percent plunge in August.

Investment lending was up 1.4 percent on month at A$9.62 billion and overall home loans fell 1.4 percent on month to A$30.31 billion.

On a yearly basis, owner-occupied home loans gained 20.8 percent, while investment lending skyrocketed 83.2 percent and overall home loans jumped 35.5 percent.

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SOUTH KOREA INFLATION RISES IN OCTOBER



South Korea's consumer prices increased in October, figures from Statistics Korea showed on Tuesday.

The consumer price index rose 3.2 percent year-on-year in October, after a 2.5 percent increase in September. This was in line with economists' expectation.

Excluding food and energy, core consumer prices increased 2.4 percent in October, following a 1.5 percent rise in the preceding month.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.1 percent in October, after a 0.5 percent increase in the previous month.

The core CPI grew 0.3 percent monthly in October, after a 0.1 percent fall in the prior month.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Is the Bank of England ready for a rate hike? What will happen to the pound



The central event of the week, which will determine the further movement of the dollar in pairs with other major currencies, not only in the short term, but also in the long term, is the Federal Reserve meeting. If we talk about GBP/USD, then another important catalyst for the movement is the Bank of England meeting. The central bank will announce its verdict on further monetary policy on Thursday.

If the Fed initially said that the rate hike is still far away, then the British central bank is more determined here. There are suggestions that the BoE will become the first central bank from developed countries to tighten policy. Such forecasts are not taken out of thin air, but dictated by representatives of the central bank. So, how big are the chances of a rate hike by the BoE?

The main reason for the abrupt change in the tone of the head of the Bank of England and the signals for tightening policy that have appeared is, of course, accelerating inflation. The indicator exceeded the target almost twice. The goal is 2%, the actual value is 3.1%. At the same time, all economists' forecasts agree that this is far from the final result, the indicator will exceed 4%, and by the end of the year it will reach 4.4%.

Customs regulations due to Brexit, an energy crisis, a shortage of truck drivers are just some of the reasons that are causing inflation to accelerate in the country. Local authorities are adding fuel to the fire. The country's chief treasurer, Rishi Sunak, last week announced tax cuts for pubs and restaurants and an additional £75bn for infrastructure, skills development and support for the poor. Meanwhile, previous statements were about tax increases. This step had to be taken due to the correction of the assessment of economic growth and damage from the pandemic.

Pro-inflationary forces are looming over England and the government is increasing spending. This means that the likelihood of a rate hike by the end of this year increases significantly. Investors estimate this step at 85%. As soon as the BoE begins the process of tightening policy, the pound will receive an impetus for growth. It is possible that this will happen on November 4. If the tone of the minutes is soft, the pound will drop.

Since BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has already signaled to the markets about a possible tightening of policy, this will not come as a surprise and a big surprise. For a more tangible growth of the pound, it is necessary for the central bank to act more harshly than market players now assume.

Three high-ranking representatives of the central bank, apparently, are ready to vote for a rate hike. However, the volume of the quantitative easing program is likely to remain at the same level - 875 billion pounds. This means that there are no strong drivers for the growth of the British currency at the moment.

Technical picture

The growth of the GBP/USD pair has slowed down. As confirmation that bullish sentiment for the pound will prevail in Forex again, it will be possible to consider a breakdown of the mirror level of 1.3641. Further, the road to the levels of 1.3686, 1.3723 and 1.3758 will open for bulls.

Otherwise, the bears will have the initiative and the level of severity, pulling the pound to 1.3594, 1.3568 and 1.3546.

Scotiabank believes that the central bank at its November meeting will nevertheless leave its policy unchanged. A rate hike this year may still occur, but the BoE, analysts say, will want to limit expectations for next year's rate. It is rather difficult to do this at the same time as the rate hike.

A downward test of the GBP/USD pair at 1.3600 is possible, but it can act as a strong support, and the next one is located at 1.3585. The breakthrough will make it possible to retest the level of the end of September - 1.3450.

The pound will be completely under the influence of the dollar until the BoE meeting.

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