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What was Trump really up to?



It's no secret that Donald Trump likes to intimidate the markets; this is his favorite weapon. It is equally safe to say that all these threats cannot be taken at face value. If Washington actually introduces new duties, which Trump tweeted, then the tariff barrier between the US and China will be higher than in many developing countries.

All these emotional outbursts are more like a continuation of the game "who blinks first," rather than a change in the course of trade negotiations. In this case, a logical question arises: what did Trump actually plan?

There are suggestions that China has nothing to do with it, and Trump's tweets are part of a certain president's game with the Fed. Earlier, the pressure was on the central bank to strengthen the position of the economy, which could bear the consequences of a trade war without complications. Perhaps now Trump is trying to drive the Fed into a corner. If trade uncertainty exists, the regulator will be forced to lower rates and ensure an economic boom before the 2020 elections. By the way, expectations for a reduction in the rate have now increased, whereas a few days ago they were declining.

It is unlikely that the head of the White House plays a strategic game, but in general, events confirm this. In addition, he has to reckon with what is happening in the foreign exchange market. The Chinese yuan, most of the post-crisis era, became cheaper following the slow growth of the country's economy. Companies that are subject to Chinese risk lagged behind other stocks, the exchange rate increased the competitiveness of the state. That all changed a little over a year ago, in part because of concerns about a trade dispute with the United States. On Monday, Chinese stocks plummeted, and the yuan fell to its lowest level in more than three years.

The authorities of China continue to carefully monitor the national currency, so it will not be easy for Donald Trump to increase the competitiveness of the US economy. More precisely – it is impossible. We need the Fed to lower the rate.

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Dollar Up Slightly As Trade War Concerns Linger



The U.S. dollar was mostly subdued slightly above the unchanged line on Wednesday with traders weighing political and economic news from across the globe for direction.
The ongoing trade spat between the U.S. and China threatens to significantly impact global economic growth.

Earlier this week, the markets were reacting to news that the U.S. administration will hike tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25% from the existing 10% from this Friday.
U.S. President Donald Trump noted in a post on Twitter that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will be a part of the talks, claiming the high-ranking official is "coming to the U.S. to make a deal."
"We'll see, but I am very happy with over $100 Billion a year in Tariffs filling U.S. coffers...great for U.S., not good for China!" Trump tweeted.

Trump also claimed China is attempting to renegotiate terms of a trade deal in order to strike a new deal with a Democratic president that continues to rip off the U.S.

The U.S. dollar index, which 97.68, was last seen hovering around 97.60, up 0.06% from previous close.
Against the Euro, the dollar was $1.1192, after moving between $1.1183 and $1.1215.

The British Pound Sterling weakened to $1.3009, losing more than 0.5% against the dollar.
The Chinese yuan was down 0.2% against the greenback, extending losses to a third straight day, due to rising concerns over U.S.-China trade war.

The Aussie and loonie were lower by 0.37% and 0.04%, respectively, against the greenback. The Swiss franc was down as well, with the dollar-franc pair trading at 1.0208.

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U.S. Wholesale Inventories Unexpectedly Edge Lower In March



A report released by the Commerce Department on Thursday unexpectedly showed a modest decrease in U.S. wholesale inventories in the month of March.
The Commerce Department said wholesale inventories edged down by 0.1 percent in March after climbing by an upwardly revised 0.4 percent in February. Economists had expected inventories to come in unchanged.
The slight drop in wholesale inventories came as inventories of non-durable goods slid by 0.6 percent amid a sharp pullback in inventories of drugs.
On the other hand, the report said inventories of durable goods rose by 0.3 percent, reflecting notable increases in inventories of machinery and metals.
The Commerce Department also said wholesale sales surged up by 2.3 percent in March after rising by 0.3 percent in February.
Sales of durable goods jumped by 1.4 percent amid sharp increases in sales of electrical equipment and miscellaneous durable goods.
A spike in sales of petroleum products also contributed to a 3.1 percent leap in sales of non-durable goods.
With inventories falling and sales soaring, the inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers dropped to 1.32 in March from 1.35 in February.

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Japan Has 2,847.9 Billion Current Account Surp



Japan posted a current account surplus of 2,847.9 billion yen in March, the Ministry of Finance said on Tuesday - down 10.6 percent on year.
That missed forecasts for a surplus of 3,007.2 billion but was still up from 2,676.8 billion in February.
The trade balance showed a surplus of 700.1 billion yen, also missing expectations for 838.9 billion yen and up from 489.2 billion yen in the previous month.
Exports fell 5.2 percent on year to 7.058 trillion yen, while imports added an annual 1.5 percent to 6.358 trillion yen.

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China's Industrial Output Growth Slows



China's industrial production and retail sales growth eased in April, figures from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Wednesday.
Industrial production advanced 5.4 percent year-on-year in April, following March's 8.5 percent increase. The growth rate was forecast to slow moderately to 6.5 percent.
Likewise, annual growth in retail sales eased to 7.2 percent from 8.7 percent a month ago. Sales were forecast to expand 8.6 percent.
Data showed that fixed asset investment climbed 6.1 percent during January to April period compared to the 6.3 percent expansion logged in January to March period. Economists had forecast 6.4 percent growth.

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Australia Jobless Rate Rises To 5.2% In April



The unemployment rate in Australia came in at a seasonally adjusted 5.2 percent in April, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.
That was above forecasts for 5.0 percent and up from the upwardly revised 5.1 percent in March (originally 5.0 percent).
The Australian economy added 28,400 jobs last month - exceeding expectations for an increase of 15,000 following the gain of 25,700 a month earlier.
The participation rate ticked up to 65.8 percent, beating forecasts for 65.7 percent - which would have been unchanged from the previous month.

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The growth of China's gold reserves is breaking records



According to some analysts, Chinese authorities are showing a growing appetite for increasing the country's gold reserves. Last week, the central bank of China announced its purchase of a record amount of the precious metal. Analysts are certain that this is not the limit, and that China will continue to increase its reserves of the yellow metal.

Last week, the financial authorities of China released a statement, which confirmed the growth of the country's gold reserves by 14.9 tons, to a mark of more than 1900 tons in April of this year. According to analysts, the gold reserves of China have been growing for five months in a row. Since December 2018, the Chinese regulator has increased their volume by 58 tons. Note that from October 2016 to November last year, Chinese authorities did not disclose information about their gold reserves. Analysts believe that this indicates the absence of official purchases.
Analysts of the precious metals market are confident that the real volume of gold reserves in China is much more than official sources say. According to the World Gold Council, at the end of 2018, 1,506 tons of ferrous metal were imported into the country, and 17 tons were exported, while the precious metal production was 404 tons. Some experts have suggested that the Chinese authorities are not telling the whole truth, so as not to cause a rise in world prices for the yellow metal.

At present, China is also the main holder of US state bonds. In 2010, China's share in US government bonds was 14%. At the moment, it does not exceed 5%, although experts are confident that the trend to diversify international reserves will continue with the help of the yellow metal.

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New Zealand Performance Of Service Index Slows In April



The services sector in New Zealand continued to expand in April, albeit at a slower pace, the latest survey from BusinessNZ revealed on Monday with a Performance of Services Index score of 51.8.
That's down from 52.3 in March, although it remains above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.
The April reading was the third straight monthly decline and the lowest index reading since September 2012.
Individually, sales, supplier deliveries and new orders expanded, while stocks and employment were in contraction.

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Singapore Lowers 2019 Growth Outlook



Singapore's economic growth outlook for this year was lowered as the manufacturing sector is set to log a sharp slowdown on weak global demand.
The city-state economy is forecast to grow 1.5 to 2.5 percent in 2019 compared to previous projection of 1.5 to 3.5 percent, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said Tuesday.
The ministry said the global growth outlook remains clouded by uncertainties and downside risks. The manufacturing sector is expected to face strong headwinds on account of a sharper-than-expected downturn in the global electronics cycle, as well as uncertainties arising from the ongoing trade conflicts.
Elsewhere, Enterprise Singapore maintained its total trade growth projection for 2019 at 0 to 2 percent, while non-oil domestic exports growth forecast was downgraded to -2 to 0 percent.
In the first quarter, gross domestic product climbed 1.2 percent year-on-year, following the 1.3 percent expansion seen in the previous quarter, the MTI reported. Meanwhile, on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted annualized basis, the economy expanded 3.8 percent, a reversal from the 0.8 percent contraction in the preceding quarter.
The manufacturing sector shrank 0.5 percent as global demand for semiconductor equipment weakened. On the other hand, construction expanded 2.9 percent, a turnaround from the 1.2 percent decline in the previous three months.
The wholesale and retail trade sector shrank 1.8 percent, while the transportation and storage sector posted 0.8 percent growth. The accommodation & food services sector grew 1.8 percent.
Data showed that the information and communications sector expanded by 6.6 percent and the finance & insurance sector by 3.2 percent. Growth in the business services sector eased to 2.3 percent. The "other services industries" grew at a faster pace of 2.2 percent.

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Japan Supermarket Sales Decline In April

Japan's supermarket sales declined in April, data from the Chain Store Association showed Wednesday.

Supermarket sales dropped 1 percent year-on-year in April, reversing a 0.5 percent rise in March.

The annual drop was largely driven by clothing sales, which fell 7 percent. Meanwhile, services and household goods sales expanded from last year.

Before adjustment, sales grew 0.2 percent but slower than the 2 percent increase seen a month ago.

On a monthly basis, supermarket sales declined 1.6 percent in April.

 

Japan Manufacturing PMI Sinks Into Contraction - Nikkei



The manufacturing sector in Japan fell into contraction in May, the latest survey from Nikkei revealed on Thursday in its preliminary report - posting a manufacturing PMI score of 49.6.
That's down from 50.2 in April and it falls beneath the boom-or-bust line if 50 that separates expansion from contraction.
Individually, output and new orders fell for the fifth straight month, while the business outlook reflected pessimism for the first time more than six years.
New export orders, backlogs, stocks and quantities of purchases also were in contraction.

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China Industrial Profits Decline In April



China's industrial profits decreased in April, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Monday.
In April, profits of large industrial firms declined 3.7 percent on year in contrast to an increase of 13.9 percent growth in March.
Industrial profits fell 3.4 percent in the first four months of 2019 from the same period of last year compared to a decrease of 3.3 percent in three months to March.
Zhu Hong of the statistics bureau said the decline in profits in April was driven by the timing of Value Added Tax cut.

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Japan Producer Prices Rise 0.9% On Year In April



Producer prices in Japan were up 0.9 percent on year in April, the Bank of Japan said on Tuesday.
That was shy of expectations for an increase of 1.1 percent on year, which would have been unchanged from the March reading.

On a monthly basis, producer prices slipped 0.2 percent after advancing 0.7 percent a month earlier.
Individually, prices were up for leading and office space rental - while they were lower for transportation, employment agencies, software development, engineering, communications and advertising.

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UK Shop Price Inflation Accelerates In May



UK shop price inflation increased notably in May on non-food prices, the British Retail Consortium reported Wednesday. Shop prices inflation doubled to 0.8 percent in May from 0.4 percent in April.

Food prices climbed 1.8 percent annually and non-food prices gained 0.2 percent. Food inflation continued to slow but it remained above the 12-month average. At the same time, non-food categories such as furniture and health and beauty follow years of deep discounting.
Shop price growth in May was the second highest inflation rate seen in the last six years, though it remains well below headline inflation, Helen Dickinson, chief executive at BRC said.

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New Zealand 2019 Budget Lifts Spending



New Zealand government plans to raise spending over the forecast period and lowered its economic growth projection.

"In this first Wellbeing Budget our priorities are focused on tackling the long-term challenges facing New Zealand," Finance Minister Grant Robertson said in his budget speech on Thursday.
"The Government has delivered the critical investments needed to help address the long-term challenges facing New Zealand, while remaining in line with our self-imposed Budget Responsibility Rules," Robertson said.

The annual operating allowance in Budget 2019 was raised to NZ$3.8 billion from NZ$2.4 billion. The operating allowance for Budget 2020 has also increased to NZ$3.0 billion from NZ$2.4 billion.
The economy is forecast to grow at 2.6 percent on average over the next five years. Gross domestic product is expected to expand 3.2 percent next year from an estimated 2.1 percent this year. The projection for 2019 was lowered from 2.9 percent.

The budget forecast an operating surplus of NZ$3.5 billion for the year ending June. Government debt is expected to fall to 19.9 percent in 2022.

The unemployment currently at 4.2 percent is set to remain at around 4 percent across the forecast period, he said.

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China Manufacturing PMI Falls Into Contraction



The manufacturing sector in China turned to contraction in May, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday with a manufacturing PMI score of 49.4.
That was shy of expectations for 49.9 and down from 50.1 in April. It also fell below the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.
The non-manufacturing PMI came in at 54.3 - unchanged from the previous month and in line with expectations.
The composite index had a score of 53.3, down fractionally from 53.4 a month earlier.

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Myanmar Manufacturing Sector Accelerates In May - Nikkei



The manufacturing sector in Myanmar continued to contract in May, and at a faster rate, the latest survey from Nikkei revealed on Monday with a manufacturing PMI score of 54.2.

That's up from 53.7 in April, and it moves farther above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.
Individually, operating conditions improved at a solid rate, while there was faster growth in output and new orders. Employment expansion was the quickest in series history.

At the same time, input costs increased further in May, with the rate of inflation picking up to a six-month high

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South Korea Inflation Rises 0.2% In May



Consumer prices in South Korea were up 0.2 percent on month in May, Statistics Korea said on Tuesday - following the 0.2 percent decline in April.

On a yearly basis, inflation advanced 0.7 percent - accelerating from 0.4 percent in the previous month.
Core CPI - which excludes volatile food prices - sank 0.2 percent on month and added0.6 percent on year.

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New Zealand Q1 Volume Of Building Soars 6.2%



The overall volume of building in New Zealand climbed a seasonally adjusted 6.2 percent on quarter in the first three months of 2019, Statistics New Zealand said on Friday.
That beat forecasts for an increase of 1.1 percent and was up sharply from the upwardly revised 3.4 percent gain in the three months prior (originally 2.7 percent).
Non-residential building volume rose a seasonally adjusted 9.0 percent, the bureau said, while residential building volume rose a seasonally adjusted 4.3 percent.
The actual value of total building work was NZ$6.1 billion in the March 2019 quarter - up 16 percent from the March 2018 quarter.
By region, the actual value of total building work in the March 2019 quarter (compared with the March 2018 quarter) was: NZ$2.5 billion in Auckland - up 26 percent; NZ$595 million in Waikato - up 30 percent; NZ$474 million in Wellington - up 1.5 percent; NZ$950 million in rest of North Island - up 13 percent; NZ$931 million in Canterbury - down 1.0 percent; and NZ$618 million in rest of South Island - up 12 percent. In the year ended March 2019, the national value of residential building work rose NZ$1.1 billion (7.9 percent) when compared with the previous March year - driven by an NZ$861 million (16 percent) increase in Auckland.
In the year ended March 2019, the national value of non-residential building work rose NZ$923 million (12 percent) when compared with the previous year - driven by a NZ$672 million (25 percent) increase in Auckland.
The non-residential building types with most growth in the year ended March 2019 (compared with the March 2018 year) were: shops, restaurants, and bars (shops) - up NZ$337 million (41 percent) nationally; hotels, motels, boarding houses, and prisons (accommodation) - up NZ$248 million (40 percent) nationally; and storage buildings - up NZ$199 million (26 percent) nationally.

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