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UK Car Production Rises For First Time In 15 Months



UK car production increased for the first time in 15 months in August, data released by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders showed on Thursday.
Car production grew 3.3 percent on a yearly basis in August as factories kept production lines rolling throughout the month after they brought forward planned summer shutdowns to April in preparation for the original Brexit deadline.
The increase in August couldn't offset the substantial losses posted in April. Only 2,903 more cars were produced in August 2019 than in the same month last year, the agency noted.
Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive, said, "While growth is always welcome, today's figures mask the underlying downward trend and strengthening global headwinds facing the sector, including international trade tensions, massive technological upheaval and, in the UK, political and economic uncertainty."
Production for the domestic market advanced 15.2 percent in August. Meanwhile, output for exports grew marginally by 0.6 percent.
This disguised ongoing weakness in major global markets with production for China down 43.8 percent, exports to the US falling 9.1 percent and those to the EU dropped 13.7 percent in the first eight months.
The year-to-date production plunged 17 percent. Output failed to reach one million units by August for the first time in five years, the lobby noted.
The SMMT repeatedly called for Brexit deal to maintain competitiveness and safeguard jobs.
SMMT Chief Executive Hawes said the mere threat of no deal has undermined investment and the potential imposition of tariffs, border delays and additional administrative burdens would damage competitiveness.
"We now need parliament and government to redouble efforts to get a deal that maintains free and frictionless trade," said Hawes.

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UK Consumer Confidence Improves In September



UK consumer confidence improved in September, survey results from the market research group GfK showed Friday.
The consumer confidence index rose to -12 in September from -14 in August. "Since the Brexit referendum we have witnessed a long succession of negative Overall Index scores with the overall trend downwards," Joe Staton, client strategy director at GfK, said. "This month, British consumers appear to be treading water during this wait-and-see run-up to October 31st."
The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last 12 months climbed three points to +2. Likewise, the forecast for personal finances over the coming year gained two points to +4.
The measure for the general economic situation over the last year also increased two points, to -32. At the same time, expectations for the general economic situation rose three points to -35.
Further, the major purchase index improved two points to +3. The savings index also rose two points to +23.

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Japan Corporate Inflation Expectations Remain Stable



Japanese firms' inflation expectations held steady in the third quarter, the Tankan summary of "Inflation Outlook of Enterprises" from Bank of Japan showed Wednesday.
Companies expect annual inflation of 0.9 percent in the year ahead, unchanged from the previous outlook.
Similarly, the three-year ahead inflation is seen at 1 percent, the same rate as estimated in June. The projection for next five years was retained at 1.1 percent.
The central bank aims at achieving price stability of 2 percent since 2013. Although the bank unveiled various quantitative and qualitative easing, inflation still remains well below the target.
The Tankan survey results published on Tuesday showed that the business conditions for large manufacturers declined moderately to 5 in the third quarter from 7 in the second quarter.
Likewise, the business conditions index for non-manufactures dropped to 21 from 23.

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Japan Services PMI Falls To 52.8 In September - Jibun



Japanese firms' inflation expectations held steady in the third quarter, the Tankan The services sector in Japan continued to expand in September, albeit at a slower rate, the latest survey from Jibun Bank revealed on Friday with a PMI score of 52.8.
That's down from the 22-month high of 53.3 in August, although it remains well above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.
Individually, output was up solidly in September, although new orders grew at a pace below trend for 2019. Selling charges increased only fractionally.
The survey also showed that the composite index came in at 51.5, down from 51.9 in August.

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UK Economic Conditions Deteriorate On Weak Manufacturing Activity: BCC



The UK economic conditions weakened in the third quarter reflecting a marked deterioration in manufacturing sector activity, survey results from the British Chambers of Commerce showed Friday.
According to Quarterly?Economic?Survey, manufacturing firms reporting increased domestic sales fell to zero. The domestic order balance entered negative territory for the first time in seven years, to -7 in the third quarter. Both are at their weakest since the fourth quarter of 2011.
The balance of manufacturing firms reporting increased export sales dropped to +3, the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2015 and the balance for export orders went negative and came in at its weakest level since the third quarter of 2009.
The dominant services sector reported a decrease in the balance of firms reporting increased domestic sales and orders, and export orders, the survey showed. The domestic sales balance of service providers slid to 15 and the balance for domestic orders dropped marginally to 9 in the third quarter.
Manufacturers' cashflow position - a key indicator of the financial health of a business, deteriorated. In the services sector, cashflow held steady at a low level.
"A stuttering services sector coupled with a worrying downturn in manufacturing activity indicates that any bounce back in UK GDP growth from the contraction in the second quarter is likely to be underwhelming at best," Suren?Thiru, Head of Economics at the BCC, said.
"This is a reality check, not scaremongering or politicking. These are some of the worst figures we've seen in a decade - and jobs, businesses, and the future success of our communities are on the line," Adam Marshall, Director General of the BCC, said.

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China's Forex Reserves Decline In September



China's foreign exchange reserves declined in September, figures from the People's Bank of China showed over the weekend.
Forex reserves totaled $3.092 trillion at the end of September compared to $3.107 trillion in August. The expected level was $3.105 trillion.
The currency exchange rate and changes in asset prices affected the level of foreign exchange reserves.
Martin Lynge Rasmussen, an economist at Capital Economics, said the central bank relied on state banks during August to contain forex volatility, but the latest forex reserves figures suggests that last month this may have been either replaced with, or supplemented by, direct forex sales by the PBoC.

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#USDX vs USD / JPY vs EUR / JPY vs GBP / JPY - H4. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from October 09, 2019 APLs & ZUP analysis
We would like to bring to your attention a comprehensive analysis of the development options for the movement of the cross-instruments EUR / JPY and GBP / JPY , as well as the dollar index #USDX and the currency of the "land of the rising sun" USD / JPY currency from October 09, 2019.
Minuette (H4 timeframe)
____________________
US dollar Index
The development of the USDX dollar index movement will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of 1/2 Median Line channel (99.15 - 98.95 - 98.75) Minuette operational scale fork. The details are shown in the animated chart.
The breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (resistance level 99.15) of the Minuette operational scale fork - the development of the #USDX movement will continue to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (99.25 - 99.40 - 99.55) with the prospect of reaching the equilibrium zone (99.60 - 99.75 - 99.95) of the Minuette operational scale fork.
On the contrary, if the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (support level 98.75), equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork is broken, the downward movement of the dollar index can continue to the local minimum 98.64 - the upper boundary of ISL38.2 (98.45) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork.
The details of the #USDX movement are presented in the animated chart.

____________________ US dollar vs Japanese yen
The currency of the "country of the rising sun" in the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork, respectively, further development of the USD / JPY movement from October 9, 2019 will be due to the development and direction of the breakdown of boundaries (107.00 - 106.80 - 106.55) of this equilibrium zones. The movement markup is shown in the animated chart.
In case of breakdown of the upper boundary of ISL38.2 (resistance level of 107.00), of the Minuette operational scale fork, then the upward movement USD / JPY will be directed to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (107.55 - 107.72 - 107.90) and the UTL control line (108.15) of the Minuette operational scale fork.
The breakdown of support level 106.55 on the lower boundary of ISL61.8 of the Minuette operational scale fork together with support level of 106.45 will determine the development of the currency of the country of the rising sun inside the 1/2 Median Line channel (106.45 - 105.90 - 105.40) of the Minuette operational scale fork.
The details of the USD / JPY movement, depending on the breakdown direction of the above equilibrium zone, are shown in the animated chart.

____________________
Euro vs Japanese yen
The development of the cross-instrument movement EUR / JPY from October 9, 2019 will continue in the equilibrium zone (117.95 - 117.30 - 116.70) of the Minuette operational scale fork. The markup of this movement is shown in the animated chart..
The breakdown of the lower boundary of ISL61.8 (support level of 116.70) of the Minuette operational scale fork will direct the EUR / JPY movement to the local minimum 115.84 and the boundaries of 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (115.10 - 114.70 - 114.30).
In case of breakdown of the upper boundary of ISL38.2 (resistance level of 117.95) of the Minuette operational scale fork, the upward movement of this cross-instrument will continue to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (118.65 - 119.10 - 119.55) of the Minuette operational scale fork.
The details of the EUR / JPY movement depending on the development of the Minuette equilibrium zone are presented in the animated chart.

___________________
Great Britain pound vs Japanese yen
Meanwhile, the development of the GBP / JPY cross-instrument movement from October 9, 2019 will be determined by the direction of the breakdown of the range :
resistance level of 130.90 (lower boundary of the ISL61.8 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork); support level of 129.97 (upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale fork).
The breakdown of support level of 129.97 will confirm that further movement of the cross-instrument will be developed inside the 1/2 Median Line channel (129.97 - 128.50 - 127.00) and the equilibrium zones (128.75 - 127.00 - 125.40) of the Minuette operational scale fork.
If you return above ISL61.8 Minuette (resistance level of 130.90), the development of the GBP / JPY movement will begin to occur again in the equilibrium zone (130.90 - 131.95 - 133.00) of the Minuette operational scale fork with the prospect of reaching the initial SSL (133.85) and control UTL (134.50) lines of the Minuette operational scale fork.
The movement options, depending on the breakdown direction of the above range, are shown in the animated chart.

____________________
The review is made without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").
The formula for calculating the dollar index:
USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.
where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:
Euro - 57.6%;
Yen - 13.6% ;
Pound Sterling - 11.9%;
Canadian dollar - 9.1%;
Swedish Krona - 4.2%;
Swiss franc - 3.6%.
The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.
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Australia Consumer Sentiment Weakest Since Mid-2015

Australia's consumer confidence weakened to the lowest level in more than four years in October despite interest rate reductions, survey results from Westpac showed Wednesday.
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped to 92.8 in October from 98.2 in September. This was the lowest score since July 2015.
Typically, an interest rate cut boosts confidence particularly around consumers' expectations for and assessments of their own finances.
However, in this survey the indicator measuring assessment of current family finances dropped 4.9 percent to 80.2 and that for future family finances slid 3.7 percent to a five-year low of 93.3.
Despite the rate cut, assessment for the economy for the next year plunged by 6 percent to 87.1 and the five-year outlook declined 9.1 percent to 88.9.
Consumer attitudes towards spending also deteriorated in October. The 'time to buy a major household item' sub-index declined 4.2 percent to 114.5.
Global events also contributed to the weak result in October with the deterioration in US-China trade relations weighing on the global economy amid speculation of a recession in the US, Bill Evans, chief economist at Westpac, said.
Evans noted that the board of the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to take some time to assess the impact of the three rate cuts before deciding to move again.
Westpac expects that next move will be a further cut in the cash rate to 0.5 percent in February next year.
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Australia Home Loans Climb 3.2% In August



The total number of home loans in Australia was up a seasonally adjusted 3.2 percent on month in August, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - coming in at 33,468.
That exceeded expectations for an increase of 2.3 percent following the upwardly revised 4.3 percent increase in July (originally 4.2 percent).

Personal finance commitments fell 2.2 percent in August following a 3.8 percent fall in July and was down 12.9 percent on August 2018.

The value of new lending commitments for owner occupier dwellings rose 1.9 per cent nationally in August, with rises in all states and territories apart from the Northern Territory.

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Sri Lanka Central Bank Keeps Rates Unchanged



Sri Lanka's central bank left its key interest rates unchanged despite weak economic growth and higher inflation.
The monetary board of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka decided to keep the Standing Deposit Facility Rate and the Standing Lending Facility Rate steady at 7.00 percent and 8.00 percent, respectively, the bank said in a statement on Friday.
The bank had reduced the rate by 50 basis points each in May and August.
The economic growth eased to 1.6 percent in the second quarter as the Easter Sunday attacks weighed heavily on the service sector activity. The central bank forecast economic growth to remain subdued this year but a gradual recovery is expected over the medium term.
Further, the bank expects inflation to stabilize well within the desired range of 4-6 percent with transitory supply side price pressures easing.
The vulnerability of the currency is likely to be a key barrier to looser policy in the near term, Alex Holmes, an economist at Capital Economics, said.
Global sentiment should start to improve around the middle of next year, and this could allow the central bank to cut interest rates further, Holmes noted. The economist expects a 50 basis point reduction in the second half of next year.

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New Zealand Services Sector Slows In September - BusinessNZ



The services sector in New Zealand continued to expand in September, albeit at a slower rate, the latest survey from BusinessNZ showed on Monday with a Performance of Services Index score of 54.4.
That's down from 54.6 in August, although it remains well above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.
Among the individual components of the survey, sales (54.4), supplier deliveries (50.5), stocks (51.8), employment (52.7) and new orders (59.3) all continued to expand last month.
"The fact that new orders/business (59.3) improved to its highest result since January should assist with general business activity going forward. However, looking more broadly the gap in performance between the services and manufacturing sectors persists. With other key economic data showing a general trend decline, the question becomes to what degree will the services sector be affected by slowing influences elsewhere in the months ahead," BusinessNZ chief executive Kirk Hope said.

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China Consumer Prices Climb 3.0% On Year In September



Consumer prices in China were up 3.0 percent on year in September, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday.

That exceeded expectations for 2.9 percent and was up from 2.8 percent in August.
On a monthly basis, inflation rose 0.9 percent - accelerating from 0.7 percent in the previous month.
The bureau also said that producer prices contracted 1.2 percent on year, matching expectations following the 0.8 percent decline a month earlier.

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New Zealand CPI Climbs 0.7% In Q3



Consumer prices in New Zealand were up 0.7 percent on quarter in the third quarter of 2019, Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday - surpassing expectations for an increase of 0.6 percent, which would have been unchanged from the previous three months.

Housing and household utilities rose 1.2 percent on quarter, influenced by higher prices for property rates and related services (up 4.9 percent).

Food prices rose 1.3 percent, influenced by higher prices for meat, poultry, and fish (up 3.4 percent).
On a yearly basis, consumer prices advanced 1.5 percent - again exceeding expectations for 1.4 percent and down from 1.7 percent in the three months prior.

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Australia Unemployment Data Due On Thursday



Australia will on Thursday release jobless numbers for September, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 5.3 percent, with the addition of 15,000 jobs following the gain of 34,700 jobs in August. The participation rate is called unchanged at 66.2 percent.
Singapore will provide September numbers for imports, exports and trade balance. In August, imports were worth SGD41.00 billion and exports were at SGD45.18 billion for a trade surplus of SGD4.18 billion.

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Chinese Data Due On Friday



China is scheduled to release a raft of data on Friday, headlining a busy day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. On tap are Q3 numbers for gross domestic product and September figures for industrial production, retail sale, fixed asset investment and unemployment.

GDP is expected to rise 1.5 percent on quarter and 6.1 percent on year, slowing from 1.6 percent on quarter and 6.2 percent on year in the three months prior.

Industrial production is tipped to add 5.0 percent on year, up from 4.4 percent in August. Retail sales are expected to add an annual 7.8 percent, up from 7.5 percent in the previous month.

Fixed asset investment is called steady at 5.5 percent, while the jobless rate is predicted to be unchanged at 5.2 percent.

Japan will see September data for nationwide consumer prices, with forecasts suggesting an increase of 0.2 percent on year - slowing from 0.3 percent in August. Core CPI is pegged at an annual 0.3 percent, down from 0.5 percent in the previous month.

Hong Kong will release unemployment numbers for September; in August, the jobless rate was 2.9 percent.

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Hong Kong Inflation Data Due On Tuesday



Hong Kong is on Tuesday scheduled to release September figures for consumer prices, highlighting an extremely light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

In August, inflation was up 3.5 percent on year.

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New Zealand Trade Deficit NZ$1.242 Billion In September



New Zealand posted a merchandise trade deficit of NZ$1.242 billion in September, Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday.
That exceeded expectations for a shortfall of NZ$1.375 billion following the NZ$1.565 billion deficit in August.
Exports were up 5.1 percent on year to NZ$4.47 billion, beating forecasts for NZ$4.30 billion and up from NZ$4.13 billion in the previous month.
Imports fell an annual 2.1 percent to NZ$5.71 billion versus expectations for NZ$5.70 billion and up from NZ$5.69 billion a month earlier.

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Japan Machine Tool Order Data Due On Friday

Japan will on Friday see final September numbers for machine tool orders, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. The previous reading suggested a decline of 35.5 percent on year.
Singapore will release September numbers for industrial production; in August, industrial production was down 7.5 percent on month and 8.0 percent on year.
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Japan Producer Prices Hold Steady At 0.5%



Producer prices in Japan were up 0.5 percent on year in September, the Bank of Japan said on Monday - in line with expectations and unchanged from the August reading following a downward revision from 0.6 percent.
On a monthly basis, producer prices were flat following the 0.1 percent decline in the previous month.
Excluding international transportation, producer prices were up an annual 0.6 percent after gaining 0.5 percent a month earlier.
Among the individual components, prices were up for transportation, communications and leasing and rental. Prices were down for advertising and architectural services.

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Tokyo Overall Inflation Steady At 0.4% On Year



Overall consumer prices in the Tokyo region of Japan were up 0.4 percent on year in October, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Tuesday.
That was unchanged from the September reading, although it was well shy of forecasts for an increase of 0.7 percent.
Core consumer prices, which exclude volatile food prices, rose an annual 0.5 percent. That also was unchanged and shy of expect6ations for an increase of 0.7 percent.
On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, overall Tokyo inflation was flat and core CPI was up 0.2 percent.

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