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Forex ForexMart's Forex News

Discussion in 'Forex Forum' started by Andrea ForexMart, Jan 18, 2018.

  1. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Member

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    Sluggish Q1 Growth Breaks The Longest Growth Since 1991


    The largest economy cooled down sharply in the first quarter despite the onset of flu and strikes, which occurs simultaneously for the region that affecting negatively good growth rates.

    The annualized growth rate of Germany slowed down to 1.2% from 2.5% in the fourth quarter of 2017, according to the record of the Federal Statistics Office on Tuesday. Although, a sharp slowdown is already anticipated as it did not meet expectations on the U.S. growth rate of 2.3% in the same period.


    However, various factors such as the strike of flu and numerous strikes on metals and engineering sectors, which causes slow down and most of the private sectors anticipate the recovery of economic activities in the second quarter or more.


    Since 1991, Germany undergoes the longest growth recorded for the fifteenth consecutive quarter, according to the Statistics office. The momentum on investment spending has overshadowed the economic growth in the first three months of the year. On the other hand, exports slid down in the fourth quarter in the previous year.


    A calm activity for the first quarter due to the more sickly staff at a higher level in ten years in February in reference to the BKK association of company health-insurance funds in Germany. A recorded of 500,000 workers in the metals and electrical engineering sectors contributed to the warning strikes in the latter weeks of January and early February, as stated by the IG Metall labor union of Germany. They were able to get a solid pay deal from the members.


    However, economic indicators reflect that other European economies are also affected by the cold diseases and strikes. Later this Tuesday, the European Union's statistics agency will release the eurozone gross domestic product, which measures the economic output of goods and services. An increase was seen in the first quarter with 1.7% at an annualized rate, which is less than the 2.7% growth in the last quarter of 2017.


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  2. Andrea ForexMart

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    NZ Retail Sales Recorded Slowest Growth in Q1


    The retail sales volume in New Zealand had expanded during Jan-Mar period but also recorded its slowest rate after five years, this further indicates the possible slackening of economic growth in the following years. On an annual basis, the official data showed that retail sales volume grew by 3 percent on Monday, which also imply a sharp decline versus the 5.4 percent rise in the previous quarter and the weakest growth from July-September 2012.


    Sales gained 0.1 percent only based on a quarterly growth, which is lower than the rough estimate of 1 percent increase projected by the economists. Footwear and clothing had decreased by 5.1 percent while motor vehicles are down to 1.1 percent. The figures led to speed-bumps in the economy, whereas, many developed countries in the past years envied but it begins to deal with some headwinds due to weak immigration and expansion in the housing market.


    The administration was able to secure strong economic growth because of immigration levels and stable price of dairy products at 3 percent per year despite the slight decline to 2.9 percent in 2017.


    New Zealand's new Labour-led government took control in October and pledged to settle the housing crisis in the country along with some plans to improve property investment tax and officially ban foreigners to purchase residential properties in NZ. On Thursday, the expanded government investment declared in the annual budget would likely negate the sluggish consumption expenditure, with the 3.8 percent GDP growth outlook from the Treasury forecast in 2019. In addition to it, the GDP data for the first quarter is scheduled on June 21.


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  3. Andrea ForexMart

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    German’s Strong Economic Upswing Despite Weak Growth in Q1, says Finance Ministry


    Germany’s economy had a strong growth amid weak data from the largest economy in Europe earlier in 2018, according to the finance ministry on Tuesday. Moreover, economic output expanded by 0.3 percent in Q1 after the 0.6 percent growth in the last quarter of 2017. The finance ministry also mentioned that the downturn was caused by temporary factors such as ill-health conditions and strikes that affect industrial output alongside the above-average number of public holidays during the quarter.


    In addition to it, the ministry stated that industrial orders continued to be at an extremely high level and that export activity at German companies could take advantage of the strong development of the world economy.


    Reportedly, the combination of moderate inflation, agreed raise in pensions, robust labor market and wage hikes led to the possible solid income development and continuous support in private consumption. The government of Germany believes that the economy will grow by 2.3 percent this year.


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  4. Andrea ForexMart

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    EU Bloc Negotiates with Australia and New Zealand


    The European bloc confirmed yesterday the start of free trade negotiations with Australia and New Zealand in order to establish new relations against the increasing trade tensions with the United States. The European Commission represents the 28 EU countries and negotiates about its plans and agreement towards the AU and NZ despite the warnings on opening the EU markets to generate farm products like beef and butter.


    According to forecasts from EU, its exports towards Australia and New Zealand may expand by a third in case that trade agreements were finalized. Considering the fact that its trade partnership with the US was suspended by the presidential election victory of Donald Trump, the EU shifted its focus to build allies with open markets and struck agreements with countries on the same mind.


    The bloc also deals with the result of steel and aluminum tariffs set by the US and the sanctions they would impose against Iran, which could lead to restriction of certain foreign businesses. The EU closed the deal with Japan, Mexico and Singapore and currently working with the Mercosur bloc of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay.


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  5. Andrea ForexMart

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    PBOC Increased the 28-repo rates by 2.85 percent


    The People’s Bank of China adjusted their rates higher on the 28-day reverse bond repurchase agreements to keep with the pace on previous increases in tenors for the past two months.


    According to the report from the online site of the PBOC, the 28-day reverse repos raised from 2.80 percent to 2.85 percent.


    This move was enacted after the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank had also raised their rates on March 21 which signifies that Beijing is keeping up with the global market trends despite all of the financial risks in their homeland.


    Moreover, the central bank added 30 billion yuan into money markets, particularly on their 7-day and 28-day rates on Monday, where the seven-day was set at 2.55 percent based on their given statements.


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  6. Andrea ForexMart

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    EU’s Malmström Against Trump’s Tariffs


    The European Union is trying to convince the countries Canada, Japan, and Mexico to work together against the aggressive trade policies imposed by US President Donald Trump, according to European Commissioner for Trade Cecilia Malmström today.


    Malmström further stated that EU is reaching out various countries to form alliances and arrange a trade union who believe in international laws. Last week, the EU announced levying retaliatory tariffs up to €2.8 billion-worth of U.S. exports, which includes peanut butter and motorboats. While Canada, India, Japan, and Mexico will do the same thing. The European Commissioner described Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum as “not legitimate” The Swedish Commissioner also cautioned regarding the potential risk towards the global economy.


    Both the United States and Europe set up the international policy and organizations to govern trade, but the US broke the rules that is why the EU has to take necessary action, Malmström said.



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  7. Andrea ForexMart

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    U.S. Consumer Prices Rose to a Record High of 2.8 Percent Over Six Years


    The consumer price of the U.S. increased slightly in May despite the slower growth of gasoline costs, implying moderate inflation in the economy.


    The inflation report of the Labor Department was released prior to the two-day policy meeting on Tuesday. With the steady growth of inflation and anticipated tightening of the labor market, the Federal Reserve is motivated to raise interest rates for the second time this year on Wednesday.


    The CPI data rise by 0.2 percent in the previous month while the cost of food remains the same. A similar increase of CPI was seen in April. After a year in May, the CPI gained 2.8 percent, which has been the biggest growth since February 2012, following its increase of 2.5 percent in April.


    Gaining 0.2 percent of the CPI, excluding volatile food and energy components, was due to the rebound of new motor vehicle prices and a pickup in the cost of health care, after rising to 0.1 percent in April. In turn, this raised the year-on-year gain of the core CPI by 2.2 percent from 2.1 percent in April. It was the largest growth since February last year.


    After the weak reading last week, the annual inflation measures are adjusting higher. Both the CPI and core CPI growth in the previous month met the expectations of economists.


    The Federal Reserve moves on a different inflation measure which is just lower than the two percent target. Economists have different perspectives on whether policymakers will implement more rate hikes in the statement following the rate decision on Wednesday.


    Meanwhile, the dollar is moving steadily against a basket of currency which is immediately after the data fell slightly than the U.S. Treasury yields, which is trading lower compared a slightly higher U.S. stock index futures.



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  8. Andrea ForexMart

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    SNB Keeps an Ultra Loose Monetary Policies


    The Swiss National Bank announced the decision to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy on Thursday and analysts expectations matched from the survey by Reuters giving a unanimous answer.


    They reiterated the fragility or exchange rates after the strengthening of the Swiss franc in the past few weeks and began low this year.


    At the same time, Chairman Thomas Jordan said that it would be too early to raise rates in Switzerland amid low inflation.


    Another issue is the political uncertainty in Italy which will affect the eurozone in the future and it is important for the central bank to be heedful in this situation, according to an analyst.

    Forty experts expect the SNB to maintain the target range to be 1.25 percent to minus 0.25 percent in three months on the offered rate of London Interbank, which has been the ongoing target for the past three-and-a-half years.


    Also, they expect a negative interest rate of 0.75 percent deposits to be sustained where the commercial bank held a certain value as one of the important tools used by the bank.


    Changes in the LIBOR target range is anticipated to happen soonest at the end of the year based on the UBS, while the median consensus deems to set at the end of next year.


    Analyst of Credit Suisse initially thought the central bank to raise their rates as early as 2019 based on the economic strength of Switzerland, with a forecast growth of 2.2 percent this year.


    The Global Head of Investment Strategy & Research at Credit Suisse Group AG, Nannette Hechler-Fayd’herbe said, “Our base case scenario is where the ECB is considering a first interest rate increase themselves by mid-2019, and the SNB could move a quarter before.” Connoting the reaffirmation of central bank’s decision. However, she added that these two would move together as they are ‘economically interlinked’.


    Her expectation is a gradual increase of rates until it reached around 1.20 against the euro in a year.


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  9. Andrea ForexMart

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    France’s Economic Growth Sharp Decline in 2018


    The economy of France dropped from 2.3 percent to 1.7 percent this year, according to the forecast of National statistics, which is another financial problem of President Emmanuel Macron in reducing costs of the government.


    Macron’s administration aims to reduce spending and maintain the deficit targets of the European Union with 2.0 percent target growth for 2018.


    Growth has been steady and there are no particular concerns, remarked by Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire on Monday.


    However, statistics agency through that the government would fail to meet the target as it would be pulled lower by a strong euro and increasing oil prices as some of the influential factors.


    Gross Domestic Product increased by 0.3 percent in the second quarter, higher than the previous quarter’s rate of 0.2 percent. Further increased by 0.4 percent in both the remaining two factors in twelve months with 1.7 percent.


    The Central bank of France revised lower their target growth of 1.8 percent in a year, following a bright year in 2017. It has changed as if covered by clouds in France and the eurozone as described by the head of Insee's economic outlook division Frederic Tallet.


    This includes external factors over which the nation has less control such as global trade war, higher costs of oil prices, a strong euro, as well as, political uncertainties in Europe, notwithstanding the new far right-eurosceptic coalition in power in Italy.


    Moreover, domestic concerns including sluggish household consumption and nearly three months of unabating train strikes that will likely bring down the second-quarter growth by 0.1 percentage points.


    The forecast says that the corporate investment will slow down from 4.4 percent to 3.1 percent over the year, while household investment would decline from 5.6 percent in 2017 to 1.6 percent.


    On a brighter side, good progress was seen on the trade and unemployment concerns. Unemployment will only decline slightly which is currently twice the value of Germany or Britain. The forecast rate is 8.8 percent at the end of the year from 9.0 9.0 percent at the end of last year.


    A slow start of exports in 2018 is expected to change in the second quarter with the help of large demand in the aviation and shipbuilding sectors, according to the agency. On the other hand, households will gain from the reduction in both of the residency and payroll taxes.


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  10. Andrea ForexMart

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    IMF Review Support NZ Economic Plan


    The latest annual review by the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) to the New Zealand economy reported that NZ’s economic plan will reinforce growth as well as to manage the infrastructure and social deficits that began in the previous years, according to Finance Minister Grant Robertson on Wednesday.


    The “Article IV” of the showed government’s support to the country’s economic strategy while presenting autonomous forecasts which hinted an annual growth about 3 percent for the next five years amid new and growth-friendly programs, added Robertson.


    Further policies include fees-free post-secondary training, KiwiBuild and the Review of the Reserve Bank Act, which received positive feedbacks. The Washington-based organization also stated that New Zealand’s plan to increase the minimum wage is expected to have a slight impact on the economy during the present economic environment, however, this will help balance out income inequality.


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  11. PALM FXMart

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    India Becomes 6th Largest Economy and Beat France

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    The World Bank issued the updated economic figures for previous year which showed that India held the sixth rank for the world’s largest economy and pushed France lower into the seventh spot. The gross domestic product (GDP) of India reached $2.597 trillion at the end of 2017 while France’s GDP amounted to $2.582 trillion.

    The Indian economy had a strong rebound since July last year following the declines in the past quarters due to economic policies imposed by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration. There are about 1.34 billion Indian citizens which would likely make India the world’s highest population against 67 million French inhabitants. This explains that India’s per capita GDP remains a portion of France which is approximately 20 times higher according to the World Bank.

    The consumer and manufacturing expenditure served as the main drivers for India’s economy in 2017 after Modi’s demonetization program of large banknotes way back in 2016 as well as the unorganized new tax system of the country.

    India was able to double its GDP in a span of a decade and anticipated to power ahead as Asia’s economic engine as China wind down. The International Monetary Fund stated that India is predicted to grow by 7.4 percent in the current year and 7.8 percent in 2019, supported by tax reform and household spending. This was compared to the world’s forecast average expansion of 3.9 percent.

    The Centre for Economics and Business Research mentioned that India would likely beat the GDP of France and the United Kingdom at the end of 2017. The London-based consultancy further told that there is a modest chance for the Indian economy hit the third place for the world’s largest economy by 2032.

    Last year, Britain was regarded to be the fifth biggest economy in the world with a GDP worth $2.622 trillion. Meanwhile, the United States hailed as the number one economy followed by China, Japan, and Germany.
     

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  12. PALM FXMart

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    Irish Economy to Reach Highest Growth in 2018

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    The economy of Ireland is projected to reach its highest record in 2018 based on the latest outlook of the European Commission. Ireland’s gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to expand by 5.6 percent this year and 4 percent in 2018, supported mainly by domestic demand.

    Meanwhile, the estimate of the EU executive shows that eurozone GDP has the potential to increase by 2.1 percent, which is below the 2.3 percent forecast according to its May report.

    Since Ireland is a very open economy, the country is potential to have revisions in the international taxation and trade environment. While the activities of multinational corporations could affect the headline GDP growth. In the near term, the commission expects that the domestic economic activity could possibly grow at a strong momentum.

    In general, the commission reduced its predictions for the EU economic growth for this year because of trade adjustments due to increasing oil prices and tensions with the United States which drove the EU inflation higher.
    There is an optimistic outlook for the whole year despite better trade with the United States. Forecasts were mostly taken prior to the United States raising their stakes through 10 percent tariffs on an extra $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, announced on Tuesday.

    The worsening trade war has added uncertainty on the outlook that also affected the Chinese financial markets in the past few weeks.

    With sluggish credit expansion and domestic demand ranging from government-funded infrastructure investment to consumer spending, China’s economy seems to be showing signs of struggle and weakening.

    The huge export sector may add impact on tariffs with the U.S. giving 25 percent tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese imports on Friday, which then triggered Beijing for rapid retaliatory measures on the same amount of U.S. Chinese exports to China.

    Moreover, the uncertainty caused by trade war pushed the corporate borrowing costs higher in reaction to soften the economic effect of a multi-year easing on riskier lending. More cash were accumulated through lesser reserve requirements for lenders three times this year.
     

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  13. PALM FXMart

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    Drop in Inflation Rate of Malaysia

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    The Annual inflation rate of Malaysia declined to 1.3 percent in June from 1.8 percent the month earlier due to the withdrawal of a goods and services tax based on the poll by Reuters.

    A survey of ten analysts by Reuters forecast for June ranged from 0.6 percent to 1.9 percent. The central bank of Malaysia kept the interest rates at 3.25 percent at a policy meeting on July 11 despite sluggish inflation and steady growth.

    The new government by Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad starting May 9 general election abolished the consumption tax of 6 percent on June 1, which was implemented for three years.

    According to economists, the elimination of goods and services tax affect the inflation and pushed it lower in June, despite the higher cost of transportation and food during the month of fasting in Ramadan and subsequent Eid al-Fitr celebrations.
     

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  14. PALM FXMart

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    South Korea to Unite with Asean and India

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    The 1950-53 Korean War ended under the Presidency of South Korean leader Moon Jae-in and successfully settled regional programs for economic, political, security, social and cultural. While the previous presidents including Kim Dae-Jung, Roh Moo-hyun, Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-Hye attempted to fix similar issues but failed to do so.

    Whenever the country’s leaders turned their attention to Southeast and South Asia, problems will always come up within the Northeast especially in the Korean Peninsula, which causes immediate distraction and inconsistency.

    However, President Moon tried a new method instead of using the same strategy, he positioned South Korea within the ongoing alliance with the Indo-Pacific region. Mr. Moon travels within and outside the country and promised to take a visit on Asean nations on the first two years of his leadership.
     

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  15. PALM FXMart

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    South Korea to Unite with Asean and India

    afdca3ee92ac88a985c74393425640078850ece2.jpg

    The 1950-53 Korean War ended under the Presidency of South Korean leader Moon Jae-in and successfully settled regional programs for economic, political, security, social and cultural. While the previous presidents including Kim Dae-Jung, Roh Moo-hyun, Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-Hye attempted to fix similar issues but failed to do so.

    Whenever the country’s leaders turned their attention to Southeast and South Asia, problems will always come up within the Northeast especially in the Korean Peninsula, which causes immediate distraction and inconsistency.

    However, President Moon tried a new method instead of using the same strategy, he positioned South Korea within the ongoing alliance with the Indo-Pacific region. Mr. Moon travels within and outside the country and promised to take a visit on Asean nations on the first two years of his leadership.
     

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  16. PALM FXMart

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    Weak Income Growth In UK Despite High Employment

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    Income growth in Britain showed down at its weakest rate in six months despite positive figures in record employment. This further adds concerns whether interest rates will be raised since the global financial crisis.

    Average weekly earnings grew by 2.5 percent on the year between the period of March and May at a lesser rate with 2.6 percent at three months earlier which was the lowest since September last year based on the report by the Office of National Statistics.

    Momentum picks up in the British economy after a sluggish first three months of the year due to heavy snow downfall and the central bank is considering being affected by the speed limit that would begin to raise the inflation rate.

    The BoE Governor Mark Carney mentioned that the economy as a whole, as well as, the pay is rising similar to the forecast in May that paves the way for a rate hike in August.

    Yet, a central bank deputy said that rising figure did not exceed the recent values of .5-3.0 percent range with the purpose of 3 percent growth rate by the end of the year.

    Also, according to him, there have been multiple ‘false dawns’ regarding the growth rate of the income where there could still be a spare storage in the labor market than the initial estimate of the central bank.


    There is also another record employment rate and the number of job openings has also reached a record new. Thus, it can be said the labor market is progressing steadfastly based on the reports, as described by the ONS statistician Matt Hughes.
     

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  17. PALM FXMart

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    NZ Economy Driven by Rural-Based Firms

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    The provincial economies of New Zealand were able to drive economic growth, reinforcing the price recovery in the dairy products as mentioned by Infometrics chief forecast Gareth Kiernan on Wednesday. The regional spending activity was able to improve faster than the activity in the main centers. While prices for exports commodity remained at high levels.


    Moreover, the government’s simulatory fiscal policy also ease down the decline. Prior to the approval of the May Budget, the NZ expenditure options was restrained by the said policy which includes fees-free courses in tertiary education as well as the Families Package.


    Forecasts from the Treasury shows surplus growth by $7.3billion in 2022, with an expected increase in government revenue and the administration projected for a further boost in spending while keeping its records written.


    On the other hand, the lack of workers (skilled and unskilled) continue to hold back the NZ economic growth. Wage inflation expanded in the previous quarter and was able to trigger price pressure across the board for the next few years.


    In the provincial areas, issues about the lack of labor and effects of Mycoplasma bovis are the most critical problem in the main centers, as the world economy would likely weaken because of the trade dispute between the US and China.


    Low business reliance indicates that those companies who are domestically-centered were uncertain to hire or invest. Meanwhile, households were careful on their expenses due to higher oil prices and sluggish housing market.
     

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  18. PALM FXMart

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    US Leading Indicators Grew by 0.5% in June

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    The Leading Economic Index by the Conference Board was able to expand by a half percent this month, showing a higher than expected figures. The indicator had increased by 0.5 percent in June which beat the forecast of 0.4 percent growth based on the Reuters’ poll. The boost marks the eighth consecutive month of improvement for the index.

    Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board, stated that the US LEI rose due to the continued stable growth in the American economy. He added that the overall strengthening in leading indicators, except the housing permits which decreased again, does not indicate any significant slowdown in the near-term.

    The flat reading in the month of May suggested that the economic performance will remain strong but will not move higher as shown in the Conference Board's report. The measurement evaluates the US economic conditions and the outlook of world economic trends. Furthermore, the Conference Board imposed a composite value based on 10 key metrics which includes the average weekly unemployment claims, producers’ new orders and stock prices.
     

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  19. PALM FXMart

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    Germany Imposed Export Limit Against Turkey

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    Germany increased its economic sanctions against Turkey and eased down its travel advisory as Ankara’s two-year state of emergency ended. The report from the newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung confirmed that the export limit worth 1.5 billion-euro ($1.7bn) ensures Turkey cannot be renewed for this year according to the German economy ministry.

    The assessment was introduced in July 2017 in order to constraint Turkey due to the arrest of five German activists and a German human rights campaigner which further includes the leader of Amnesty International in Turkey. The opposing blocs in Germany denounce that the limit was too weak since the value of export guarantees boosted from 1.1bn euros in 2016 to 1.46bn euros next year.
     

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    Eurozone’s Steady Growth of Consumer Confidence in July

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    Consumer confidence in the eurozone remained the same in July, signifying steadfast growth in the third quarter based on the data published on Monday.

    According to the European Commission, the flash estimate of the eurozone consumer morale was kept unchanged at -0.6 points in July. Meanwhile, the data for June was adjusted lower from the earlier figure of -0.5 to 0.6.

    As for the general consumer sentiment in the European Union, a significant increase in the result to -0.7 with 0.6 points difference from the previous data.

    Yet, economists are still optimistic of growth to continue by the second half of the year amid the weakened status in the second quarter. Forecast of the European Central Bank says growth will be 2.1 percent this year in the whole eurozone.
     

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