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The dollar's share in world reserves has updated its 30-year low

The dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves in the third quarter reached its lowest level in almost 30 years.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the indicator decreased by 0.85 percentage points, amounting to 57.4%. This is the lowest value since 1995, as there are no earlier statistics.

The decrease in the dollar's share is due to an increase in investments in euros: its share increased to 20.02% from 19.75% in the second quarter.

Investments in the Japanese yen and non-foreign currencies also increased, reaching 5.82% and 4.46%, respectively. For the yen, this was the highest since the end of March 2021.

The Swiss franc, like the dollar, reduced its share of reserves to 0.17%, which was the lowest since the end of 2021.

On the contrary, interest in the yuan began to recover: after nine quarters of decline, its share in reserves increased to 2.17% in the third quarter of 2025.
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What awaits the U.S. economy in 2025?

The U.S. economy enters 2025 with positive forecasts, despite the risks associated with high interest rates, a possible weakening of the labor market and political instability.

Consumption remains steady, corporate profits are growing, and businesses are investing in technology and preparing for the AI revolution.

According to forecasts, GDP growth in 2025 will be 2.5%, which is only slightly below the level of 2024. The S&P 500 index is also expected to grow by 12% due to successful corporate performance.

However, challenges remain: the labor market is showing a slowdown in hiring, and the number of long-term unemployed is increasing. The Fed raised its inflation forecast to 2.5% for 2025 and is likely to limit further rate cuts, which will put pressure on corporate and government debt.

Investments in equipment and technology continue to grow, which supports economic dynamics. Nevertheless, Donald Trump's program, which includes tariffs and reforms, may pose risks to inflation and market stability in the long term.

In general, experts remain optimistic: consumption, business investment and technological innovation will be the drivers of growth.
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Oil continues to rise in price after rising the day before

Oil prices continue to rise, reaching their highest levels since October. Brent futures for March delivery rose to $77.85 per barrel.

The day before, this grade rose by $0.75 (+1%), closing at $77.05. WTI futures for February delivery added $0.41 (+0.55%) and reached $74.66 per barrel, after rising by $0.69 (+0.9%) a day earlier. Both brands ended the previous session at their highest levels since October.

Growth factors:

-Seasonal demand. The good travel figures during the holiday period supported the optimism.
-Chinese incentives. Expectations of economic support in China are pushing the quotes up.

Inventory data:

The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a decrease in oil reserves in the United States by 4 million barrels per week, which was the fifth decline in a row. If the official data of the Ministry of Energy confirms this assessment, it will strengthen the market. Analysts predict a decrease in stocks by 250 thousand barrels.
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The Fed expects further interest rate cuts in 2025

Christopher Waller, a member of the Fed's Board of Governors, expressed confidence that inflation in the United States will continue to decline in 2025, which will create conditions for further interest rate cuts.

Although inflation remained above the Fed's 2% target at the end of 2024, market estimates and short-term indicators point to a slowing trend.

At an OECD event in Paris, Waller stressed that further rate cuts would be possible with a steady decline in inflation and stability in the labor market. He noted that the Fed has already cut the key rate by 1 percentage point over the last three meetings, but at the next meeting in January, the rate is expected to remain in the range of 4.25-4.5%. According to him, opinions within the Fed are divided: from assumptions about the absence of a rate cut to expectations of a reduction of 1.25 percentage points in 2025.

Waller added that the U.S. economy remains strong, with rising hiring and wages supporting consumer spending. New data on the labor market, which will be published in the coming days, may confirm this stability.
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The pound continues to fall

The British pound continues to lose ground, showing a noticeable lag behind the trajectory of UK government bond yields. Deutsche Bank analysts recommend selling the pound based on data from a broad trade-weighted index.

The current quote of the GBP/USD pair is 1.2213. Today, the currency has plummeted from 1.2318. Analysts note that since the beginning of the year, the pound sterling has shown the worst results among world currencies, comparable to the decline recorded after the announcement of the UK budget in November last year.

In its analysis, Deutsche Bank points to no signs of improvement in the country's current account deficit, as well as the risk of further deterioration in volatility-adjusted yields.

The bank's report pays special attention to the dependence of the pound on capital inflows through the carry trade, which is now under threat. After taking profits on long positions in December, Deutsche Bank analysts revised their strategy and switched to selling recommendations.

Since the beginning of the year, the pound has lost just over 1% in the trade-weighted index. Although this has not historically been a significant decline, the recent weakness of the pound is particularly noticeable against the backdrop of the strengthening US dollar, against which most world currencies have reached multi-month or even multi-year lows.

 

A strong US economy strengthens the dollar to a two-year high

On Monday, the US dollar strengthened, forcing other currencies to reach multi-year lows. Its growth was supported by strong employment data, confirming the resilience of the US economy and complicating the prospects for a Fed rate cut.

The dollar index, reflecting its exchange rate against a basket of currencies, reached 110.17, the highest in more than two years. This happened against the background of Friday's statistics, which showed an acceleration in job creation in December and a decrease in unemployment to 4.1%. These data have dampened expectations for a rate cut, and markets are now ruling out the possibility of even one cut in 2025.

The publication of US inflation data on Wednesday could further strengthen the dollar if the CPI rises. Statements from the Fed's representatives are also expected this week, which may clarify their further actions.

The US economy is demonstrating resilience, which supports a high dollar exchange rate. According to analysts, the labor market has coped with any signs of weakness. Plans for import tariffs, tax cuts, and tougher immigration may also have an impact on inflation.

The euro fell to $1.0177, reaching its lowest level since November 2022, while the pound sterling fell 0.7%, dropping to a 14-month low of $1.21.
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Japanese bond yields reached record levels

The yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds has reached a record high since they entered the market. This happened against the backdrop of a global sell-off of debt assets and expectations of higher interest rates from the Bank of Japan in the coming months.

The indicator increased by 3 basis points, reaching 2.755%, the highest level in the last 16 years. At the same time, Japan's 20-year bond yields have also reached a peak not seen since May 2011.

Rising yields are recorded around the world, which is associated with increasing concerns about inflation, increasing budget deficits and stable data on the US economy. Such factors force market participants to reconsider their expectations regarding the Fed's interest rate cuts. In addition, investors are gradually putting into their forecasts the probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan, estimating this scenario at 60% in the coming week and at 83% by March.

The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Ryozo Himino, noted that the possibility of changing the current interest rate policy will be discussed at the upcoming meeting of the central bank. Experts believe that a rate hike may take place in the coming days if market conditions turn out to be favorable for such a decision.
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Oil tanker freight prices skyrocketed amid US sanctions

The cost of oil transportation is showing a noticeable increase, which is associated with forecasts of a decrease in the availability of tankers on the global market. The reason for this is the expansion of US sanctions measures against the Russian navy. The introduction of these restrictions affected freight rates, which increased between 15-35%, depending on the shipping route.

It is separately noted that yesterday the Shell oil Corporation leased three large tankers, each of which is capable of transporting up to 2 million barrels of oil. The rental rate was Worldscale 70. The Chinese company Shenghong Petrochemical has also concluded deals for the charter of two vessels at a similar price. Deliveries are expected to be completed in early February.

According to ship brokers, the increased demand for oil tankers has caused a significant increase in tariffs on the Middle East–China route. In just a day, the indicator increased by WS10.75, reaching WS70.45 by January 15.

In addition, a similar trend has been recorded in other areas. For example, the fare on the Middle East-Singapore route increased by WS10.45, reaching WS71.80, and on the West Africa-China route, the increase was WS9.23, raising the rate to WS70.67.
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China's GDP growth in 2024 reached the target 5%

China's GDP grew by 5.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024, exceeding the projected 5% and figures from previous quarters (5.3%, 4.7% and 4.6%). This made it possible to achieve annual economic growth of 5%, which corresponds to the official target.

Increased economic activity was due to a policy change in September last year, but large-scale incentives are needed for further recovery. At the same time, the statistical bureau warned of weak domestic demand and the impact of external factors, calling for an active macroeconomic policy.

Positive data strengthened the CSI 300 index by 0.15%, the yuan exchange rate to 7.3398 per dollar, and the yield on 10-year bonds decreased by 2 basis points to 1.638. December growth in retail sales was 3.7%, industrial production – 6.2%, but investments in fixed assets increased by only 3.2% over the year. Investments in real estate decreased by 10.6%. The unemployment rate rose to 5.1%.

Incomes of urban residents increased by 4.4%, in rural areas – by 6.3%. The representative of the statistical bureau noted weak consumer activity and a possible increase in external pressure in 2025. Inflation in the country remains low, and wholesale prices continue to decline for the 27th month in a row.
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Trump's Inauguration and the Crypto Market: the beginning of an era of change

Bitcoin exceeded $109,000 for the first time in history, reaching $109,112 during trading. The growth is explained by the expectations of the inauguration of Donald Trump, who supports cryptocurrencies and plans to make bitcoin a national priority.

Moreover, on the eve of his inauguration, Trump launched the TRUMP meme token on the Solana blockchain, which caused an unprecedented stir. The capitalization of the token has reached $5 billion, and leading exchanges are adding it through futures. The project is linked to CIC Digital, which previously produced Trump's NFT. 80% of TRUMP tokens are blocked for three years, which highlights the long-term plans. The launch of TRUMP coincided with the expectation of the crypto reforms that Trump is going to initiate.

Against the background of the launch of TRUMP, Solana has significantly increased in price. According to Coin Metrics, the value of SOL increased by 12%, reaching $247.76, although previously the growth was almost 23%. TRUMP, with a capitalization of more than $5 billion, became the largest meme coin on the Solana network, which provoked an increase in interest in the platform. Against this background, large companies are applying to create ETFs related to Solana. Decisions on the applications are expected before January 25. Analysts predict that the approved ETFs will attract significant investments.

Also, Donald Trump's wife, Melania, announced the launch of her own cryptocurrency, called $MELANIA. The price of the token has reached over $5, and its market capitalization has exceeded $5 billion. In her message, Melania strongly recommended subscribers to think about investing in her project, which immediately received approval from participants in the cryptocurrency market.
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Bitcoin is losing ground amid expectations of Trump's actions

The collapse of bitcoin from record heights recorded on Monday is related to traders' expectations regarding President Donald Trump's actions in the field of cryptocurrencies. After signing key decrees on the first day of his presidency, the market was hoping for signals about his position on crypto policy.

Previously, digital assets showed steady growth against the backdrop of Trump's inauguration. The optimism of market participants was caused by hopes for possible initiatives that could support the crypto industry. However, the president focused on other campaign promises, including issues related to TikTok, trade, and energy, without mentioning cryptocurrencies.

Against the background of this uncertainty, bitcoin lost ground, falling from a historical high of over $109,000. The uncertainty of Trump's trade policy increased the risk in the market, which was reflected in a decrease in the value of the main cryptocurrency to $102,240.

Additionally, the market was destabilized by Trump's release of the $TRUMP and $MELANIA memecoins, which led to increased volatility. Solana, Cardano and Polygon fell by 3.8-7%, while Dogecoin lost 6.1% among meme tokens.
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Central banks of Sweden and Norway prepare to lower rates

Experts from Nordea Bank Abp predict the completion of the current cycle of monetary policy easing by the central banks of Sweden and Norway over the next six months. This development is attributed to the expected revival of domestic demand in the Scandinavian countries.

Riksbank in Sweden and Norges Bank in Norway are projected to reach their target rates by mid-summer, setting them at 2% and 4%, respectively. These indicators suggest a decrease of 50 basis points relative to current values, which is reflected in the latest economic forecast of the key financial institution of Northern Europe, published on Wednesday.

The forecasts for Sweden proposed by Nordea completely coincide with the consensus opinion of economists. Previously, the bank assumed that the level of the Riksbank key rate would reach 2% by the end of the year.

At the same time, Nordea's assessment of Norway differs markedly from the median forecasts. According to the latest data, Norges Bank's key interest rate is expected to gradually decrease to 2.9% over the next year.

For comparison, in the September forecast, Nordea experts assumed three consecutive rate cuts of 0.25 points, which could lead to a decrease in the level to 3.75% by the end of next year.
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Saudi Arabia invests $600 billion in the U.S. economy

Saudi Arabia has expressed its willingness to increase investment and trade with the United States to the tune of $600 billion over the next four years. At the same time, the possibility of additional investments exceeding the declared volume is allowed.

This was announced by Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud during a telephone conversation with US President Donald Trump, which took place on January 22.

During the conversation, prospects for cooperation between Saudi Arabia and the United States aimed at strengthening peace, security and stability in the Middle East region were discussed. In addition, special attention was paid to strengthening cooperation between the two countries in the framework of joint efforts to combat international terrorism.

The increased investment is expected to have a significant impact on the economic development of both countries, as well as be an important step in strengthening their strategic partnership.
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The Bank of Japan raised rates to the highest since 2008

On Friday, the Bank of Japan increased interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them to 0.5%. This was the highest discount rate level since 2008. This decision is due to the regulator's desire to normalize monetary policy against the background of persistent signs of inflation and rising wages.

Against the background of this decision, the Japanese yen strengthened its position, adding 0.6% and reaching 155.12 against the dollar. At the same time, the country's main stock index, Nikkei 225, showed a slight increase.

The yield on ten-year Japanese government bonds also rose, adding 2.5 basis points and reaching 1.23%.

Previously, the regulator has repeatedly stressed that in order to raise interest rates, it is necessary to have a so-called «beneficial cycle» in which rising wages contribute to higher prices.
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Bitcoin sank below $100 thousand: the market reacts to the initiatives of the White House

On Monday, the cost of bitcoin dropped below the $100,000 mark for the first time in a week, despite the beginning of the presidential term of Donald Trump, known for his support of cryptocurrencies.

The adjustment of the bitcoin exchange rate occurred against the background of an order by the American president to create a special working group designed to advise the White House on issues related to the regulation of digital assets.

According to the instruction, a team of experts should develop recommendations for creating a regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency market in the United States within six months, as well as analyze the possibility of introducing a national crypto reserve. However, the document did not mention any intentions to create a reserve in bitcoins.

After a number of favorable events, including regulatory support for cryptocurrencies, the launch of new ETF products, and government initiatives, experts note the beginning of market stabilization.

At Monday morning's trading, the cost of bitcoin reached a low of $99,694.7 per token, but by noon it had risen to $99,291.
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$108 billion per day: how DeepSeek's success brought down the fortunes of billionaires

The fortune of the 500 richest people in the world decreased by $108 billion in one day due to the sale of shares in the technology sector caused by the success of the Chinese company DeepSeek. The NASDAQ Composite and S&P 500 indexes fell by 3.1% and 1.5%, respectively.

The biggest losses were incurred by Jensen Huang, the founder of Nvidia, whose fortune decreased by 20%, or $20.1 billion, after the company's shares fell by 17%. Oracle's Larry Ellison lost $22.6 billion, Michael Dell lost $13 billion, and Changpeng Zhao of Binance lost $12.1 billion. In general, representatives of the technology sector recorded losses of $94 billion, which accounted for 85% of the overall decline in the index.

Hangzhou-based DeepSeek has released the DeepSeek R1 chatbot, which topped the global download charts. The company was able to create a free AI model, comparable in quality to ChatGPT and Claude, but at a lower cost. This has called into question Silicon Valley's approach based on large investments.

Chinese companies, including DeepSeek, are doing without advanced GPUs due to limited access to them caused by US export sanctions. Nevertheless, they probably have more such resources than expected, as noted by Scale AI CEO Alexander Wang.
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The economic downturn in Germany may drag on into 2025

Germany's industrial community is expressing concern, predicting that Europe's largest economy could contract for the third year in a row in 2025. According to their forecasts, the expected decrease will be 0.1%.

President Peter Leibinger, who heads the BDI organization, stressed in a statement that the current situation is of serious concern. He paid special attention to the structural changes that have significantly affected the industrial development of the country.

In contrast to this pessimistic forecast, the opinions of most analysts look somewhat more encouraging. On average, they assume that the German economy may show growth of 0.4% in 2025. But after a two-year decline in GDP, including the expected results in 2024, the development prospects remain very vague.

For its part, the Bundesbank estimates possible growth in 2025 at 0.2%, but warns of the risks of a new recession. A key uncertainty factor remains the potential trade barriers that could be imposed by the United States if Donald Trump fulfills his promises to China and other countries.
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Oil prices fell to January lows

Oil prices fell to January lows on Thursday due to concerns about the possible imposition of U.S. tariffs on oil imports from Mexico and Canada, the largest suppliers of raw materials to the United States. By mid-afternoon, April Brent futures fell by 0.62% to $75.00 per barrel, and WTI - by 0.55% to $72.22.

According to analysts, the imposition of tariffs proposed by Trump is unlikely to have a noticeable impact on oil markets, as traders have already incorporated these risks into current prices. They also point out that this explains the current level of oil prices.

Oil reserves in the United States increased by 3.46 million barrels last week, which coincided with forecasts suggesting an increase of 3.19 million. The reason was a decrease in demand due to winter storms.

Investors are now waiting for the OPEC+ meeting on February 3, where participants will discuss the impact of US measures to increase production. Experts believe that a price war between the United States and OPEC+ is unlikely, as it will cause damage to both sides. Analysts predict that the active use of OPEC+ reserves could reduce Brent prices below $50 per barrel and reduce shale production in the United States.
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EU to tighten control over cheap goods on marketplaces

The European Commission has proposed to strengthen control over cheap goods sold through online marketplaces in the EU. The new measures are aimed at protecting consumers, combating counterfeiting and reducing environmental damage from parcel transportation. However, they can lead to higher prices and a reduction in the range.

In 2024, the EU received about 4.6 billion parcels with goods worth up to 22 euros, which is equivalent to 12 million shipments per day. This is twice as much as in 2023 and three times as much as in 2022. The European Commission notes that a significant part of these products do not meet European standards.

The proposed measures include the abolition of exemption from import duties for goods cheaper than 150 euros, increased customs control, the introduction of fees for processing orders and fines for marketplaces for violations.

Earlier, the EC initiated investigations against the Chinese Temu marketplace, which is visited by 75 million users in the EU every month. The company is accused of selling products that violate the law, and it faces significant fines.
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The crypto market is on the rise: bitcoin is moving towards $100 000

The capitalization of the crypto market has reached $3.355 trillion (+$67 billion). The share of bitcoin is 58.0%, ether – 9.7%. The fear and greed index rose from 43 to 47, reflecting neutral investor sentiment.

Trading on February 10 for BTC/USDT ended with an increase of 1%, to $97,430. Bitcoin's movement continues to correlate with stock indexes amid a lack of significant news about BTC reserves and regulatory measures.

One of the pressure factors was the escalation of trade tensions between the United States and China. Beijing has imposed tariffs of 15% on liquefied natural gas and coal, and 10% on oil. In response, the United States increased duties on aluminum and steel to 25%. Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency market remains stable.

In the Asian session, bitcoin is trading at $98,240. The growth of futures on the S&P 500 index creates a favorable background, which can support the upward movement of cryptocurrencies. The target correction level is currently estimated at $102,500, with resistance at $100,000. A steady consolidation above $102,500 can change the current picture, which is dominated by sellers. Some altcoin/BTC pairs are growing in the altcoin market, which puts pressure on the bitcoin exchange rate against the dollar and may affect its further dynamics.