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23.04. Eurozone business activity drops to a record low in April

Business activity in the eurozone in April reached another record low, which is a sign that the coronavirus pandemic is causing serious economic damage to the whole region.

According to preliminary data, the purchasing managers index (PMI) of IHS Markit in April fell to 13.5 points. In March, the same index already recorded the largest monthly decline to 29.7.

Chris Williamson, chief economist for business at IHS Markit, said that activity in the second quarter could record the worst recession in history. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts a decline in the eurozone economy by 7.5% in 2020.

European leaders today should discuss further measures to stimulate the economy. Eurozone finance ministers have formed a €500 billion package of financial measures to deal with the economic shock caused by the pandemic, but each EU government believes that additional funding is still needed.

 

24.04. US Consumer Sentiment better than forecast in April

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which reflects household confidence in the US economy, fell to 71.8 in April.

The March indicator was fixed at 89.1 points. Analysts polled by Reuters expected a drop to 68 points.

The coronavirus pandemic has led to a loss of over 26 million jobs in the past five weeks. That’s more than the employment gains since the Great Recession.

 

27.04. Gold slips amid boost risk appetite

On Monday, the price of gold began to decline amid rising risk appetite after signs that countries could soon weaken coronavirus-driven lockdowns. The spot price of gold fell to $1,720.05 per troy ounce.

However, experts predict that the fall will not last long, as market participants hope for the introduction of new incentive measures by leading central banks.

The price of palladium rose by 0.72%, to $ 2.039.68 an ounce, and platinum – by 0.27%, to $761.80 an ounce. Silver fell 0.14% to $15.22.

 

28.04. Unemployment in Spain jumped to 14.4%

According to the National Statistical Institute of Spain, the country's unemployment rate rose to 14.4% in the first quarter of 2020. In the previous quarter, unemployment was 13.8%. Analysts predicted its jump to 15.6% in January-March.

However, these data only partially reflect the effects of restrictive measures introduced to combat coronavirus. Isolation measures were introduced just two weeks before the end of the quarter, and most of the research had already been done by then.

According to figures, about 898.822 thousand people have lost their jobs since March 12 in quarantine. The tourism and construction sectors suffered the most.

The Bank of Spain assumes that this year unemployment could jump to 21.7%, and the economic contraction could reach 12.4%.

 

29.04. US GDP drops 4.8%

According to the first estimate, US GDP in the first quarter of 2020 fell by 4.8%. Analysts had expected a decrease of 4%. A negative impact on the economy was exerted by measures of social isolation in response to the coronavirus pandemic.

A key component of GDP (consumer spending) fell by 7.6%. At the same time, private gross investment continued to decline for the fourth quarter in a row, losing another 5.6%. Exports fell by almost 9% and imports by 15%.

It is worth considering that the negative impact of COVID-19 on the country's economy began in March. In this regard, experts predict an even more significant blow to the economy in the II quarter. Here, drop estimates range from 20% to 40%.

 

30.04. ECB leaves interest rates unchanged

According to the results of the meeting on Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept the base interest rate on loans at zero and the deposit rate – at minus 0.5%. The margin lending rate was left at 0.25%. These decisions coincided with the expectations of most experts.

The ECB also said that rates will remain at the current level or lower until inflation in the eurozone approaches the target of the Central Bank. The regulator also announced the launch of a new long-term lending program for Eurozone banks, lowered its interest rate on long-term lending operations (TLTRO III) and announced its readiness to increase the scale of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP), amounting to 750 billion euros .

In addition, the European Central Bank has promised to continue redeeming bonds under the PEPP program until it concludes that the crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic has come to an end.

 

01.05. Baker Hughes announces April 2020 rig counts

According to Baker Hughes, an American oil and gas service company, the number of oil and gas drilling rigs around the world fell in April in monthly terms by 450 units, to 1,514, or 23%. In annual terms, the number of operating rigs decreased by 626, or 29.2%.

In the USA, according to the company, the indicator in monthly terms decreased by 206, or 26.7%, and amounted to 566, in Canada – by 100, or four times, up to 33 units.

The number of drilling rigs in Europe decreased by 11 (-8.9%) to 112. In the Middle East, the total number of rigs decreased by eight (-1.9%) and amounted to 420. In the Asia-Pacific region (APR), the number of rigs decreased by 40 (-17%), to 191, in Africa – decreased by five, or 4.6%, to 103. In Latin America, the indicator fell by 80 (-47.3%), to 89 installations.

 

05.05. US stocks rise in hope of global economic recovery

According to trading data, the main US indices are growing amid the emergence of prospects for the recovery of the global economy after the crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Traders evaluate the news of the gradual lifting of quarantine measures in a number of countries, in particular in Italy.

Thus, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index grew by 1.27% – up to 24050.99 points, the index of high-tech companies NASDAQ – by 1.44%, up to 8836.43 points, the S&P500 wide market index increased by 1, 29%, up to 2879.55 points.

An additional factor of optimism on the exchanges is also the restoration of the oil market. Today, the price of Brent grade has reached $30.30, and WTI crude oil – $24 per barrel.

However, pressure on the US stock market had data on the US trade deficit. In March, the figure rose to $ 44.4 billion, turning out to be worse than the forecast of $ 44 billion.

 

06.05. US private sector reduces by 20.236 million

According to a US employment report from ADP, a record 20.236 million Americans lost their jobs in April. Analysts had forecast a decline of 20.050 million workers. Forced layoffs in response to an outbreak of coronavirus in the country led to an increase in the number of layoffs.

March data was revised downward to show that the number of jobs was reduced by 149 thousand jobs instead of the previously registered 27 thousand. Experts note that this was the first decline since September 2017.

Such a strong drop in private sector jobs has shown that quarantine restrictions to slow the spread of COVID-19 can have long-term disruptive effects on the US economy, even if non-core businesses open.

 

May, 07. Industrial production in Germany in March fell at a record pace

According to the German Ministry of Economics and Labor, industrial production in the country fell by 9.2% in March compared with the previous month, which was the largest decrease since the start of data collection in 1991. Experts predicted a decrease in industrial production by 7.5%.

The automotive industry showed a decline of 31.1% in monthly terms. Manufacturing production decreased by 11.6%. The production of capital goods fell by 16.5%. However, the performance of the construction industry showed an increase of almost 2%.

The orders of industrial enterprises in Germany in March fell by 15.6% compared to February, which also became the minimum value since the beginning of data collection in 1991.

 

May, 08. Unemployment in the US in April jumped to 14.7% and renewed a maximum since 1940

According to the US Department of Labor, unemployment in April updated the record since 1940 and jumped to 14.7% from March 4.4%, while the number of jobs in non-agricultural sectors of the economy fell by a record 20.5 million.

Analysts had forecast unemployment at 16% and a decrease in jobs by 22 million.

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has published monthly statistics since 1929, and according to it, unemployment in the United States was in May-July 1940 at 14-15%, and in May 1933 it was 25.6%.

The Ministry also reported that the hourly wage in the country in April grew by 7.9% in annual terms and amounted to $ 30.01. In monthly terms, it increased by $ 1.34.

 

May, 11. The European Commission expects the second wave of coronavirus

The President of the European Commission said that EU countries could face the second wave of the spread of coronavirus, and all measures should be taken to prepare for such a scenario.

Scientists from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control regularly assess the pandemic situation. At the same time, they concluded that new outbreaks of the disease can begin, even if current indicators are well controlled.

Moreover, disappointing news comes from the East, where new cases of Covid-19 infection were again recorded in China and South Korea after a long period of their absence. China reported 17 new cases of coronavirus and closed the entrance to Shulan City. South Korea is also sounding the alarm, as 27 new cases of infection were recorded in this country as early as May 10.

 

May 12. China will abolish increased import duties for a new group of American goods

China freed another group of American goods from higher import duties, which were introduced at the height of the trade war with the United States. Withdrawal of duties takes effect on May 19 for a period of one year.

The list of goods exempted from increased import duties contains 79 categories, including chemical products and industrial goods.

Earlier in February, Chinese authorities had already announced the abandonment of additional duties on a number of US goods, including medical equipment required by the PRC to combat the epidemic of coronavirus infection.

Such step (refusal of duties) demonstrates Beijing’s readiness to comply with the terms of the trade agreement concluded earlier this year with the United States, according to which China is committed to increase imports of American goods.

 

May 13. UK retail sales slow at record pace in April

UK retail sales plummeted last month as coronavirus control measures limited consumer activity.

According to the British Retail Consortium (BRC), retail sales in April fell 19.1% year on year. The decrease was the highest since the beginning of observations in 1995.

In February-April, sales of non-food items in stores fell 36%. Food sales during this period increased by 6%, as consumers stocked up on essentials in connection with quarantine. Online sales of non-food items jumped nearly 60% in April.

Costs at pubs and restaurants fell 97%, while sales at supermarkets grew 14%.

 

May 14. UN: pandemic will reduce world production by $ 8.5 trillion

According to the forecast of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, the global economy will fall due to a coronavirus pandemic of approximately 3.2%, or about $ 8.5 trillion over the next two years. This can destroy almost all the achievements of the previous four years.

According to experts of the department, GDP growth in developed countries in 2020 will be reduced to -5%. A modest increase of 3.4% is expected in 2021, but experts are not sure that this will be enough to compensate for the lost production volumes.

In addition, global trade is expected to decline by 2020 at 15% amid a sharp drop in demand and disruptions in global supply chains. Analysts say that more than 90% of the global economy was blocked in one form or another, which led to a decrease in consumer demand and an unprecedented increase in unemployment.

 

May 15. Eurozone economy contracted at record pace in Q1

According to the Statistical Office of the European Union (Eurostat), the eurozone economy in the first quarter fell at a record pace, as measures to combat the coronavirus pandemic sharply reduced economic activity in the region. Today's Eurozone GDP data showed a decrease of 3.8% compared with the previous three months. This decline was the sharpest quarterly decline since data collection began in 1995.

In annual terms, the GDP of the European region fell by 3.2%, and not by 3.3%, as previously reported, after growing by 1% in October-December.

The economy of all EU countries in the I quarter decreased by 3.3% compared with the previous quarter and by 2.6% in annual terms. The German economy, the largest in Europe, contracted 2.2% in January-March compared with the previous quarter.

According to the forecasts of the European Commission, the eurozone economy in 2020 may contract by a record 7.7% due to the coronavirus pandemic, while public debt and budget deficits will increase.

 

May 25. US unemployment may exceed 20% in May

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said the US unemployment rate could be over 20% in May amid a coronavirus pandemic. The politician also suggests that in June unemployment will be even higher, after which it will begin to decline at a slow pace.

«Forecasts would be more optimistic if the coronavirus vaccine were certified in July,» Hasset said, noting the detrimental effects of the pandemic on consumer activity and markets.

In April, 20.5 million Americans lost their jobs, and unemployment rose to 14.7%. Such indicators have become maximum since the Second World War. Since the beginning of the introduction of quarantine measures and the closure of enterprises and shops, about 38.6 million applications for unemployment benefits have been submitted.

 

T%hat was old news from last week. More liberal propaganda against the AdminISTRATION.


Today DOW Fitters up 300 points.

 

May 26. Fed ready for policy change

The Federal Reserve is ready to move on targeting the yield of treasury bonds – this was the conclusion made by market participants by analyzing the actions of the regulator.

A similar policy has long been adhered to by the Bank of Japan, as well as the Central Bank of Australia since March. In other words, central banks, which have already reduced rates to zero, are beginning to conduct selective purchases of government bonds in order to keep the yield curve at certain levels, while giving a signal to the market that rates will remain low.

Currently, the Fed is considering various tools to support the economy and the financial market in a way out of the crisis. Traders are sure that this is the path the American regulator will choose.

If the Fed decides to take this step, bond purchases will not be carried out according to a previously announced schedule, but only when the central bank considers it necessary, and to the extent necessary to maintain the yield in a given range.

 

May 27. EC wants to give an additional 11 billion euros to EU countries

The European Commission proposes to adjust the multi-year financial plan of the European Union 2014-2020 to be able to allocate an additional 11.5 billion euros to the Union countries to combat the crisis caused by coronavirus.

Every year, the EU draws up the general budgets of the union. The European Commission intends to create an additional fund to restore the EU from the crisis in the amount of 750 billion euros. The EC plans to borrow these funds in the financial markets and give countries in the form of grants (up to 500 billion euros) and loans (up to 250 billion euros).

These proposals must be approved by the EU countries and the European Parliament before the money can begin to flow in 2020.