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TurboGenius Gambler's Fallacy (absurd ?) Proof II

Discussion in 'TurboGenius's Forum' started by DutchCrown, Dec 11, 2021.

  1. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    Spike, a straightforward question .. playing as you play .. & you're using base bet of 1u ..
    how many spins would you have to sit out at the table on average.. to make 100u.

    Let's leave aside that your goal is one or two unit a day, suppose you had a gun on your head by the fella in the next chair wanting that 100u from you & then leave you be forever, or else.. how long in spins would you have to sit there?
     
  2. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    An impossible question to answer because you're dealing with random outcomes. Ask Henry Ford how many cars he could make in an hour on the assembly line and he can tell you exactly because nothing he deals with was random. I play for one unit because I know I can always make one unit very quickly. If I can make my goal in one unit why would I not do that. Why would I want to sit there and expose my bankroll to the endless bankroll of the casino. Why would you want to do that. If it's because you're playing for fun then you need to find a less expensive hobby.
     
  3. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    Fucking hell .. all I asked for is a straight answer.

    & that's why 'average'.
     
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2021
  4. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    I'll rephrase;
    how much time = how many spins to make 1u, or 2u as a daily goal?
     
  5. Keyser Soze

    Keyser Soze Active Member

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    Lol
     
  6. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    Hey, I wasn't laughing AT you .. at the situation itse,d the remark you made .. just to be clear & nothing us carried onwaeds.
     
  7. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Geez. How many spins until you are in a phase where your game is working? Nobody knows. But let's unpack what you can do for yourself if you only win one unit per session. You win every session BTW. Say you play a place that let's you flat bet the big bets at $1,000. You play 2 session per day. It takes from 5 minutes to 30 minutes for each session. So you take down $2,000 each day. That's 3/4 of a million dollars if you just stick to what the mathboyz say is impossible in just one year. Just spread it around and fake them out that you are a loser some times. Like take $1000 and then go lose $100 at the Craps table. Casinos love to see randomness act like it is expected. They have happy board meetings over it. They think giving you really good comps will get their money back. LOL
     

  8. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    It takes as long as it takes, we're dealing with random outcomes how long is it supposed to take. This is the problem, you guys don't know what questions to ask.
    You obviously want to make as much as you possibly can every time you play and this will be your downfall, I guarantee it. This is the attitude the casino wants you to have. No discipline, no control, just play and play and bet and bet until the casinos endless bankroll steamrolls right over you. Good luck with that.

    Just tonight in the second session that I played it was like playing my game on steroids. All three major EC streams were nothing but unending patterns. I made my goal on the very first bet and stopped. I kept betting virtually and I could have easily made 15 more units in the next 20 minutes. But I didn't, not because I'm a fool, but because I have discipline and I have control and I have a goal. When I go to a buffet I don't eat everything I can just because I can, I eat as much as I want and then I stop. If you have no control over your greed in a casino you are ruined before you even start. If you don't see that, quit now while you're ahead.
     
  9. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    I know that my way, continuous betting + principles a) ≠stop-loss=nominal profit b) minimum betting, what games is asking for the nominal profit c) multi-dimensional progression (neg, pos, press with payouts alternation, varying the coverage on various payouts -- all combined) d) rat-holing;

    it takes to a session goal of +100u on average 300 spins or 0.3u/spin profit;

    yes, it can be done in 200 spins real favorable, 300 so-so, it can also take 400 .. to an occassional +500 on extreme end.


    Do I know how much in advance, do I know the 'average' after 10x sessions -- NO.
    We are all obviously dealing with random, but overall ..
    I know that 0.3 or 300 spins is the expected average.


    So .. back to you.
     
  10. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    So Spike, I have no idea why you are betting only for two units .. & actually is none of my business ≈ really, I don't wanna know -- I just guess that you play with a base bet high enough for the returns being sufficient .. however you structure(d) your life & what purposes those 2u play in the big scheme of things.

    Nonetheless, you mention a quite high hit success rate .. thereof I wonder | on average | what it takes for you to finish off 1oo of those units; you allegedly play long enough by now .. to offer a rough, if nothing else, evaluation & quantify.
     
  11. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    Really? Seriously? I explain it over and over and you have no idea? I give the reason again and again and you are totally in the dark. Wow.
     
  12. Denzie

    Denzie Active Member

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    Just out of curiosity...if we would play the top 2 hottest numbers....what would be the max gap between a hit? Let's say start from a 3x till a 7x ( first 2# to hit 3x , 4x , 5x ,...)
     
  13. Median Joe

    Median Joe Active Member

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    Luckyfella is a known scammer and compulsive liar. Don't believe a word he says.
     
  14. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    Spike, first-off I ain't putting you on the spot so remove that tone, I genuily want to know your performance stats.

    & no, I have no idea about your total life situation & why so short times of play-- if I were you I would dedicate a block of hours to one thing, focus on extremely, make that 100u & then fuck all shifting focus to whatever else I wanna do.

    & getting such a type of answers, I ain't DSAA or a cop who's gonna byte on anything & everything you say taking advantage of it .. forget I asked.
     
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2021

  15. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    Known by who exactly? I can't recall anyone else than you saying that.

    & where's the proof .. you know which .. or did you return to your shell screaming 'scammer' oit as a last act of DeFi-ance, however little of that you've got in you ..
     
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2021
  16. Ka2

    Ka2 Active Member

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    I test that last year the max was something like 350. Way to much
     
  17. Ka2

    Ka2 Active Member

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    How did he scam?
     
  18. Median Joe

    Median Joe Active Member

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    Selling systems, and he hasn't denied it. I have more info but I won't reveal it unless he continues with his smear campaign and lies about me. He has no arguments so resorts to personal attacks, but it's gone on long enough. If he wants to carry on with it, I will too.
     
  19. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

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    I sell nothing to nobody.

    I ask you again to prove your accusation.

    Post the evidence here.

    —---------------------------------------------------------

    What I post about you is factual.
    You wrote on various forums.
    Do you want me to write a summary then post the links?


    You can correct anything I post about you that is factually wrong.
     
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2021
  20. Median Joe

    Median Joe Active Member

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    Post YOUR evidence here. I've had enough of your crap. We can call a truce and agree not to indulge in any more personal attacks, or we carry on with the pointless name-calling. Up to you.
     

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