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TurboGenius Gambler's Fallacy (absurd ?) Proof.

Discussion in 'TurboGenius's Forum' started by TurboGenius, Oct 29, 2021.

  1. Gigi666

    Gigi666 Active Member

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  2. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    I wonder why wait 37-72 spins charting spins doing nothing ..
    you have DS, Quads, ST .. that perform in the same way with shorter cycles.
     
  3. Gigi666

    Gigi666 Active Member

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    Because my focus is on singles, in online setup and some b&m you don't have to sit and wait. Anyway latest session ate up all 3k on RS before making any meaningful profit (of course its just experimenting)
     
  4. Denzie

    Denzie Well-Known Member

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    10 numbers and none of them hit again? How long was this session?
     
  5. Denzie

    Denzie Well-Known Member

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    #26 was extra cold yes but don't forget....never play the last of anything. You should be in profit already at one point from the # that did performed as they should. Don't forget the progression...the RIGHT progression
     
  6. Denzie

    Denzie Well-Known Member

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    Nevermind that chart. That's was in early testing phase
     
  7. Denzie

    Denzie Well-Known Member

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    @Gigi666

    I played 3 games on RS and each a bit differently.

    First : Marty up after each cycle (pretty obvious)

    Second: Using bigger chips (pretty obvious and stupid using those chips at those moments)

    Third : a more dynamic approach ( which is something to think about)

    Note: the 3 games where played till bust or till all numbers been "caught" up . So I already hear the most people say....those look horrible. Are they really? I don't need to tell you in real play we use units that our br can handle or we don't keep playing till the last # appear etc , etc (common sense)

    I was actually happy with those 3 games because they demonstrated what is possible and what can happen if you get greedy vs mm

    https://roulette-simulator.info/en/game/8e443a3df9dcf3300ba3508d5da6a7c6
     
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  8. GaryG

    GaryG Active Member

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    @Denzie thanks for the breakdown. Will look at those games. @Gigi666 feel better soon. I’ve had Covid twice and it absolutely sucks.
     
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  9. Gigi666

    Gigi666 Active Member

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    To clarify they didn't before the units ran out
     
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  10. Gigi666

    Gigi666 Active Member

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    Thanks for presenting various progs.
    I think the dynamic one is where goods are. Just question on increases and decreases. You increase on new cycle start,but was there an increase after 12 new cycle spins that had no win?
    Decreased after a number was coming off,makes sense, but at later spins where you hit new high spins 114+ you keep playing with 4u. Any reason other than you'd expect more hits as you still have plenty numbers on the board?
     
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  11. Naughty but nice

    Naughty but nice Well-Known Member

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    Here are 1st 60 spins of 516. Games a piece of piss.
    upload_2023-12-10_10-31-49.png
    9;1x, 10 spins. Now T9 needs 3 times T3 matches and has 7. Repeats came as known average, 1-3-5=9. The question is, when will there be 9, R1 or 2x? Remember 60 spins the score is usually 30/30.
    upload_2023-12-10_10-33-14.png
    9, R1 or 2x took 37 spins. 12 repeats; 3 spins to come and if they are all repeats, the repeats will be -1 @ 15.
    upload_2023-12-10_10-34-28.png
    we’re at 37 spins not 42. The grey with red numbers makes 42 spins. What the red is; is the non-hit average to hit. With 23 spins still to come; if they hit too average, then 19 of the 23 spins will be accounted for. The other 4 spins would be repeats and have the 30/30. How many spins to get the 9, R2 or 3x?
    upload_2023-12-10_10-36-18.png
    40 spins and repeats have slowed; -2. The 26th non-hit took 4 spins to hit. One more than average. Betting for one of the 12 remaining non-hit took 4 spins.
    upload_2023-12-10_10-37-30.png
    What a surprise 60 spins ends 30/30. T3 has just 4 matches. If you use 9 horses, T9; don’t it need 3 times as many matches? Has 12. If you can count, you’d see 9,R2 complete in 63 spins, #18.
    Load of b-ll-cks to many.
     
  12. Denzie

    Denzie Well-Known Member

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    I'll keep it 100 with you. I didn't play exactly as I do for obvious reasons. But I did show you the way to bet. Always bet accordingly to your BR and to what's more to come within a cycle ON AVERAGE. Don't use the average exactly though. I like to stay a bit below it on the safe side. If for example the first half of your current cycle doesn't have hits we should expect hits in the second half. So it might be a good idea to put extra units on your numbers. NOT TO MUCH !! Keep your br in check.

    Also if your br is growing smoothly because the game is going smoothly then I'm not that fast to lower my bets as we got extra reserve to play with...

    With every spin that rolls off you keep an eye on your br , average stats , common sense,....

    You can also add a hot number(s) in the selection as well...

    Make it your own . Play with it . Practice lots of sessions till at one point you will be in profit each session. Again common sense is needed and don't get greedy !
     
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  13. Denzie

    Denzie Well-Known Member

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    I'm not into increasing bets on individual numbers as when the big units are on it and they stop appearing you'll lose it all . One for all and all for one :)
     
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  14. Gigi666

    Gigi666 Active Member

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    Yeah, I tinkered with keeping same units on all with hots, again hit and miss, so will see how it goes here.

    With colds what I've noticed is those colder ones so sleeping till 3rd cycle is over tend to have 1 at least catch up before those showing up earlier do.
    I'll play around bit more on RS (pain in the butt, but I'm away till Jan so no access to RX.
    If you'd like to help bit more outside of forum, @GaryG (I've emailed you yesterday) has my email, as I believe you have his.
    Thanks.
     

  15. Gigi666

    Gigi666 Active Member

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  16. Denzie

    Denzie Well-Known Member

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    Happy with the profit is each to their own . But overall I think you played nicely. Play around with it and get a feel for it. The more you play/practice the better you get at it :)

    Also again....if things going smoothly you might wanna push a couple more spins but experience will teach you this . And later on throw in some hot numbers but one step at a time.

    Don't forget your MM .... winning 300u is nice but it's only 10% of your BR so work out a solid MM. Personally i played few 100 games to figure out my best MM.

    Anyway good job and keep improving.
    I'm gonna delete my sessions now as it was actually made for you to see them and you got the point. Go get them
     
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  17. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    In my experience, I don't play your styles though, its great to begin with greater coverage at a higher probability of a (1st) hit expanding to T9, that then (in worst case) reduces the expositiion, & gives you some extra 'ytemporary credits' to work with.

    These can then be used combined with reduced coverave for a while, platying T6-T3-Twhatever (as tge session & distribution unfolds if playing eg. longest colds just appeared to capitalize on their current inbalance), for as long as those 'extra credits' last & are able to finance such focused-mode.
    This may be a slight(est) neg. progression on the (reduced amount of) nunbers played.
    May be a longer focused-interval, for an increased amount of spins, flat but with a better payout due to the reduced-coverage.
    May be even a positive progression on a few numbers that hit again, a bit later in play.

    To recap, wider coverage, adding number over T6→T9 if necessary; an early hit might already give a positive.
    After a hit, lower the cap of the number played between T6-T3u = better payiut on hit;
    & leverage the credits with either extended time (flat, fewer numbers for a longer interval at the same cost, with better pay).
    with added vertical units for an interval distfibuting the 1st0hit credits over those (with a reduced coverage the cost does not increase much in spite of a slight progression) = both combined.

    You may even go as far dynamically use ≈T9→T6→T3 capped-play, with 3 hits spread across those (1st→2nd→3rd).
    Moving in both direction contungent on the distributed credits & getting a hit within that interval financed (→), otherwise move on the wider coverage again, securing a hit & some leveraging crecits to work with.

    This in itself is a press done with payouts = a pressed-play either a better payout (horizontal reduction), potentially with vertical increase both combined; that evolves & is applied according to how the session unfolds, dinamicaly & ad-hoc.

    The exposition, & the positive, is also taken into the account as a primary metric in decision-making of moving through the capped-modes + what the current capmis, as the most ootimal trajectory to positive, quantified as a number of hits & their credits combined.
     
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2023
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  18. Gigi666

    Gigi666 Active Member

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    You can see in my next game I pushed beyond (my virtual bankrol isn't 3k but 600, so I'd stop earlier in that 2nd game).
    Having still a lot of numbers to play with wouldn't really turn into more profits. As you said around spin 150 it probably makes sense to add hots if profit not achieved).
    https://roulette-simulator.info/en/game/519457aac05eaf5efb2c58f73e496de6
     
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  19. Gigi666

    Gigi666 Active Member

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  20. Naughty but nice

    Naughty but nice Well-Known Member

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    Yes TRD as the spins come the laps show. Know when or how to use T3 or T9.
    As you record, you should see the speed of the non-hits.
    The 1-3-5-7& 30 shows score of both non-hit and repeats.
     
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