TurboGenius Gambler's Fallacy debunked (again) and roulette math.

TurboG, you taught me the out of the box thinking about math. I investigated in detail the math to find roulette game is beaten with flatbet. There's no need for progression betsizing.

TG, no matter how you explain SAA will continue to use broad brush independent spins with extra pocket and unfair payout as his justification. Clearly, he has not investigated the math in detail.

 

He's found his approach with bias wheels and it works for him so people like that have no interest in systems or beating the math I'm sure.
I just don't see it as a legitimate way to win, seems like cheating the casino to me and I'd rather win against their own game with their own rules without the need for a defective wheel. I also like it that "my way" will work on any wheel in any casino and there's no hassle of hunting for the right wheel and trying to attack it. Any casino and any wheel is fine for me. To each their own, I respect the guy for having the knowledge about the mechanical part of the game and if he chooses to win that way that's his choice.
Cheers.

 

My thoughts exactly. He was an ex-maintenance or wheel design/production/quality engineer.

There are thousands of such personnel in the industry. I'm sure the casino security focus is to guard their assets against these people. The biggest threat to the casino is their own employees, not us gamblers.

That's why I don't see his way can work.

I agree about the cheating part.
SAA is a story about a disgruntled ex-employee who cheats his employer.
He is looking for mules do his dirty job.

 

As per usual more excellent work and much appreciated food for thought.

In some respect one could almost say that within the casinoverse industry there are multiple gambling fallacy that appear to apply to various sections some can be similar across the board but different in pertaining to the one area versus another. Using your above reasoning and applied to other areas it certainly whittles it down somewhat. Heaven forbid the mathies read this thread they would be popping off at a greater rate than Covid ripping through a anti vax seminar.

In reading the thread how do you actually bet to win using the above and following information you have posted this thread? Are you waiting for a trigger or just starting with a random number? How many numbers are you backing per spin.

I had mentioned on another thread that you can make money on a casinoverse simply walking past roulette tables if you are practicing situational awareness, I was looking at this as a fill in as I took a break from baccarat on my way for coffee / tea etc. I would appreciate any information you can provide to above request as it will greatly hone my “edge” in harvesting the money field of the casinoverse. Cheers

 

Hello Turbo. I just wanted to write something, and ask, because it's difficult to translate words, or rather their meaning, and what you provided here, how smarts immediately appear and say that you need to somehow think extraordinary, and I can barely understand here, and immediately get depressed. So I had to dig into all this to figure out what you provided.
On the one hand, it was immediately clear to me what you were talking about, because we were still discussing this in May-June with Jackhab and Gigi. And I myself told them this idea that after studying Vaddy, I understood that there was a certain balance, and that all the numbers that did not fall out for a long time then would still catch up with the rest. At the same time, I did a lot of tests then on the ideas that we discussed, but nevertheless this did not lead to success. Yes, I completely agree, and I agree with this for a long time that whichever number you choose is just a matter of time when it will still appear in its average meaning. And I would even say that even absolutely any group of numbers will come early or to the average combined.
But nevertheless, this needs very decent spins. And I was outraged that you ran tests at the beginning on a lot of spins. And I would like to say, how to be more realistic and how to show all this on 200-300 spins? And I didn't see it on your chart right away, only then, when I tried to figure out exactly what you were showing. I studied the video and what you wrote about it, but I never realized what you were doing on these charts. And while I was writing it, I reviewed and revised and translated what you wrote, but it never came to me what you were doing? The only thing I realized was that your tests were different from what I tested that spring with the same idea. Because my tests were aimed at making the cold numbers hot in the end, and when I waited for the fall-out higher than the average, I always waited for me to be in the plus. And you have minus sessions. And as I did not try to understand what you are doing,does not understand yet.
Maybe you can tell what you were doing on the charts? Especially this: "Ending each section when there are no locations with a minimum interval that is higher than the expected appearance rate...". I.e. you always don't have bets at the beginning, and you're waiting for something. What are you waiting for? Until there's one street waiting to fall out higher than average and then you bet it? And this phrase of yours, which I quoted above to understand what it means in the game, is that you play the streets and go to the splits when all 12 streets have a drop-out range of less than 12 spins, even if the street itself is above the average drop-out for all spins, or not?

 

TG, it seems to me you're legitimately beating the system, leaving math Nazis in a muddle! Keep up the good work.

 

BTW, my impression was that dr SAA was agreeing with you.

 

Don't forget the $80'000 phone.

 

Hi Turbo. A total of 141 spins and 33 of the starting 37 have hit at least once. The top 3; you get 1 match. #23. Its position is marked with green slash. The top 3 now becomes a bit of a disaster. #21 marked purple slash, spin 63 is a match and matches begin to get better. Like you say; we’ll have to learn how to use this advantage. Opening post in the advantage trilogy #3. Post 1 and post 9 give good information. The staking for repeats is the biggest hurdle. With trying to find the best way to bet, i.e., just 1 number or 3 numbers or like the old sparring partner Mr J, just 4 numbers. It might be like suggestion in reply9? This group of 1/37 spin, I wanted to win 300. Spin 80, just 5 units short, should I have taken the profit. But then how far would it go to take a profit, 25 units short? But I made the 300.

 

The 1st part of these 141; 1/37 spins is where the matches of 1-0-2 happens. But I was not betting the top 3.

When the graph shows 1st profit the units being placed is 2.

If you look at the excel above you can see each lap builds from left to right. Lap 1x, has only 1 number to bet to go R1. Too often lap 1x and laps R1-R2 fill to quickly and this will make top3 or whatever you use harder to win with.

There’s 6 R3 and also 6 R4 where’s the action going to be? It could be 1 of the 4 non-hit or a repeating number. You can see when #5 hit becoming the 33rd 1x. The 4 non-hits have gone many spins.

But think like Winkel how many times could you bet 6 numbers maybe it would go to 7 numbers. But each lap builds left to right.

 

lol
I almost forgot about him too. Covertly stand by the wheel and aim your phone at it and when the secret device vibrates you'll know what to bet on. Of course the casino security will never figure this out. And even better, it's "legal" to use he says. Well... I'll stick with systems and strategies to win.. I haven't been kicked out of a casino yet for cheating.

 

I'll post a better explanation and make a video showing how it works.

 

Have not "Like" button. Very Thanks.

 

Thanks in advance!
Regards.

 

Thanks turbo

 

Same like you. Dont have like button. Dont know why

 

No worries.

In the meantime people can follow along at RS -
https://roulette-simulator.info/en/user/3d3103fc27ffaea9fcbaebd91c8fff07

So far 5 out of 5 wins, combined with the RX testing it seems just fine.
Time will tell.
A better explanation and video is being worked on.
Cheers.

 

Maybe it's easier for the math guys if I also explain it this way.

We have a known average of 1 in 37 for each number at some time in the future.

Any spin count MORE than 37 means there has to be a spin count LOWER than 37 in order to
form this "average". This is just simple... (there will actually be 2 below 37 for every 1 appearance above 37)
So we have a number that has gone 150 spins and then shows up.
There will be a spin count below 37 in order to achieve this average.
Since the least we can have is a win on the first spin, this alone won't produce the average.
150 spins for the first appearance means an average of 150.
the next spin it shows again - the average is 75.5
So as you can see - a number with an extreme high average will HAVE to have many appearances
below 37 spins in order to offset the extreme first appearance.

If not then there is no "average" which we all know exists.
Does it mean that every number will average 37 ? No. Maybe that is where they get stuck.
It means that for every appearance over 37, there will be multiple appearances below 37.
Appearances below 37 is how the player beats the game.
This means that there is no Fallacy, there is only an known average and results
that produce this average. A number can't average 37 if it appears greater than 37 spins
only. I don't understand why this isn't just simple logic.
That is why this type of play wins long term. Yes, it's boring as hell and confusing to track -
but it's a way to win.
Also it's clear that if you just play any random number on the table for 37 spins, you will
win 2/3 of the time you do this on average...... Why ?
Because as I explained above - a number that doesn't appear for a long time has to appear
more than once to create this average.
Here is a quick runoff from RX and I'll pick the number that appears last and show what happens
next.

#5 shows at spin 155. Here is what happens next :
20 spins later it shows again *better than expected*
10 spins later it shows again *better than expected*
27 spins later it shows again *better than expected*
It is only 1.62 appearances below the expected average. Strange right ?
6 spins later it shows again *better than expected*
now it is .78 spins below the expected average and 4 straight wins for the player
making a profit on each win.
It doesn't happen like this all the time, no. It did while typing this - it will take
longer if I run this again and again.

Now I'll look at the Minimum Interval and see that #19 hasn't shown below 43 spins
at any time. It "has to". I'll play it.
7 spins later it wins but for the session it's still not below 43 so I play on.
20 spins later it appears again - now it's Minimum Interval is 20 and chalk up 2 more wins.
Now number #35 has appeared 3 times but never below 37 spins. It has to.
25 spins later it wins, it's Min Interval is still 37 so there are going to be appearances
below this to get to the average so I stay on it.
It goes to 37 spins and doesn't show so I'll wait for it to appear again and then attack it again.
37 more and it doesn't repeat, so I'll wait for it to appear again and then attack it again.
8 spins later it wins, but that is 7 times it has shown and only once below 37 so we keep going.
3 spins later it wins...... are the math people going to dispute this or accept that it works ?

 

Your strategy is regression to the mean. You use progression betsizing in your game to win in around 250spins session. What is the longest wait for this regression to happen? It can take a long time.