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Baccarat H & S Baccarat System

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by fathead, Apr 11, 2023.

  1. fathead

    fathead Well-Known Member

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    H & S Baccarat System

    I promised Baccarat Magician that I would post a new system that I had not posted before. I looked at my long list of simulations and after tinkering with this one a bit I present to you the Hand and Shoe Baccarat System or H&S Baccarat.

    The problem with running baccarat simulations is that nothing really works that well. I consider it a breakthrough if the method merely makes it through the database without busting (using a reasonable table limit).

    This one does well enough, making it through my 4062 live shoes and even all of my many thousands of virtual shoes without busting on a 1 to 1000 table limit spread. Profits are not huge but acceptable. You earn about one unit per shoe.

    Why does this system survive? Multiple reasons.

    1) It does not bet every hand (bets 50% of the decisions).
    2) It mostly flat bets, with a negative progression when required.
    3) The simple bet selection only wagers on the Banker side, which normally wins 50.7% of decisions.
    4) The profit per shoe goal is very conservative (we flat bet if we are at or above the one unit goal).

    Now for the system.

    Bet Selection.

    The bet selection is a simple one that I came up with. You look at the last two decisions (ignoring ties). Forget about all previous decisions. If the last two decisions are the same, bet Banker. If the last two decisions are not the same, then no bet.

    So, BB or PP then bet B.
    If, BP or PB then No Bet.

    You end up betting against any Player streak (the shortest streaks) and betting with any Banker streak (the longest streaks).

    Money Management

    The money management requires you to keep a running notation of the current hand number and the current shoe number. By shoe number I mean the total number of shoes to date played using this system. Hand number is just the B or P decision count in the current shoe only. All profits are carried forward with the bankroll.

    The minimum bet is one unit. The maximum bet is 1000 units. If we hit the maximum bet of 1000 units we just keep betting 1000 units per wager until we recover and reach or exceed our profit goal for the shoe, at which point we flat bet one unit.

    The way we calculate our bet size is as follows. If we lose a decision, we add "Hand Number-1" to the bet. If we win a decision and are below our one unit goal for the shoe, we keep the bet the same. If we win a decision and are at or above our one unit goal for the shoe, we flat bet one unit. If we are flat betting one unit and fall back below our one unit profit goal, then we add "Hand Number-1" to the bet. And so on.

    Now what usually (always?) happens is that you will find yourself way above your goal for the shoe at some point. Let's say you are in Shoe #2 and have a nice win, your total profit for shoes one and two reaching +24 units. Your goal for Shoe #2 is only a running total of two units. You have already reached your goal for Shoe #24. Since your current goal is two units and you are at +24 units, you may end up flat betting several shoes until the profit figure drops below the current shoe number.

    Continuing on with the example. Let's say we are in Shoe #8 and flat betting has been going horribly. Our goal for Shoe #8 is to have a running 8 unit profit for the betting of Shoes 1 through 8 but we find ourselves at a 7.5 unit profit after a losing bet. Looking at our rules, we now add "Hand Number-1" to our bet and make the next wager. If we win that bet, we might find ourselves above the 8 unit goal and may then resume flat betting.

    Here are the results of this system on my various databases.

    4062 Live Shoes: Profit +4192 .. Bankroll required 4800 units.
    10,005 Virtual Shoes: Profit +10,748 .. Bankroll required 4400 units.
    2500 Virtual Shoes: Profit +2653 .. Bankroll required 1800 units.
    25,000 Virtual Shoes: Profit +25,072 .. Bankroll required 59,000 units.

    Tough sledding on the 25,000 shoes but it did not bust. Most systems bust with no hope of recovery.

    Hopefully you can understand the betting from the above explanation. Here is another example of the bet size being calculated.

    So let's say we are flat betting one unit at Hand #23 and we drop slightly below the profit goal. The formula is (hand number)-1 plus (previous bet). So 23-1=22 plus 1 = 23. We lose again at Hand #24. The new bet is 24-1=23 plus 23 = 46. We win that bet and are back up above our profit goal. We resume flat betting at that point.

    If we had lost the 46 unit bet at Hand #25, the next calculation would be 25-1=24 plus 46 = 70. I will try to post a hand by hand example later.
     
  2. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for sharing fathead. This is simple and interesting. I will start looking at my shoes (I think I have a shade over 2,600 real shoes) and see if I can get a bead on this.
     
    fathead likes this.
  3. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    Nice.
     
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  4. SON HUYNH VAN

    SON HUYNH VAN New Member

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    59000 units, I hope you are serious, even at 0.1$ minimum bet (the lowest on Evolution) that would be a 5900$ bankroll. Pretty sure Jae has a collection of shoes he played, looking forward to him trying this one out.
     
  5. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    fathead

    I wanted to clarify this - you say Hand Number - 1 but should this be Shoe Number - 1?

    For instance, let’s say you are in Shoe #9 and you have a 10-unit profit. Then you lose two 1-unit bets to get to +8. You are one unit behind. Would it not be in your interest to bet just 1 unit to get back to +9 on a win?

    Or are you looking to gain per hand?

    In your example of Hand #23, you say you are only slightly behind in profit per shoe, but a 23-unit bet is going to propel you a lot further into profit per shoe with a win. I would say in the instance that you are, say 1 unit behind, you bet 1 (or 2 max) for that to get you back above your goal.

    Or is the premise of “over betting” the goal to get you back into a mainly flat betting situation?

    I suppose that once I see an example it will clear it up for me.
     
  6. fathead

    fathead Well-Known Member

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    Here is summary breakdown for three shoes. The formatting is not good but hopefully you can read it. The "Bet" calculation is for the next betting trigger coming up next. I left out most of the flat betting. Shoe #2 was all flat betting one unit.

    When testing, I consider these 3 shoes as one big shoe. You cannot see this but the end of Shoe #2 we have "B" and Hand #1 in Shoe #3 is B so that is a bet signal for Hand #2 in Shoe #3. I hope that is not too confusing.

    So you can see that mostly you flat bet. In all three shoes you only had five bets above one unit. The fewer progressions you have, the longer you will last without busting. The first two levels in the progression are basically a martingale. This will be 75% of your progression wins. After that the progression gets more conservative.


    Profit - Decision - Bet - Hand - Shoe

    0 - B - 0 - 1 - 1
    0 - B - 1 - 2 - 1
    .95 - B - 1 - 3 - 1
    1.9 - B - 1 - 4 - 1
    .9 - P - 5 - 5 - 1
    .9 -B - 5 - 6 - 1
    .9 - B - 5 - 7 - 1
    5.65 - B - 1 - 8 - 1
    4.65 - P - 1 - 9 - 1
    4.65 - P - 1 - 10 - 1
    3.65 - P - 1 - 11 - 1
    2.65 - P - 1 - 12 - 1
    1.65 - P - 1 - 13 - 1
    .65 - P - 14 - 14 - 1
    -13.35 - P - 28 - 15 - 1
    13.25 - B - 1 - 16 - 1
    13.25 - B - 1 - 17 - 1

    ~~~

    4.35 - P - 1 - 53 - 3
    4.35 - P - 1 - 54 - 3
    3.35 - P - 1 - 55 - 3
    2.35 - P - 56 - 56 - 3
    -53.65 - P - 112 - 57 - 3
    52.75 - B - 1 - 58 - 3
    52.75 - B - 1 - 59 - 3
    51.75 - P - 1 - 60 - 3
     
  7. fathead

    fathead Well-Known Member

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    Those are the realities of the game, unfortunately. Most people are severely underfunded. Ask Jae how big his bankroll is.

    You are of course welcome to post your system in your own thread. If it is mechanical and not too complicated, I can try to test it for you and see how it does.
     
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  8. fathead

    fathead Well-Known Member

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    Hand Number - 1. You want to leap forward many units so you can exit the progression and flat bet for a long period. This is how you survive.

    I will try your version, though, and get back to you here.
     
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  9. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    I appreciate that. I like how you want to get ahead. That’s what I believe would escalate the progression quickly but at the same time makes the flat betting occur much more often than say a Marty or similar.
     
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  10. fathead

    fathead Well-Known Member

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    More clarifications. You only increase your bet on a loss. If you win the bet either stays the same or drops to one unit.

    Loss + Below Shoe Goal = Bet Increase
    Loss + Above Shoe Goal = Flat Bet One Unit
    Win + Below Shoe Goal = Bet Remains the Same
    Win + Above Shoe Goal = Flat Bet One Unit
     
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  11. SON HUYNH VAN

    SON HUYNH VAN New Member

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    I'm just saying that's a bit too much for a banker only system. How's the win rate on each of the cases you mention?
     
  12. fathead

    fathead Well-Known Member

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    50.96%
    50.87%
    50.76%
    50.59%

    Not much different than Banker only, really. Except that the wagers placed are 50% fewer.
     
  13. fathead

    fathead Well-Known Member

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    You know what, your version did not do that bad. The bankroll required was generally larger and it did bust on the 25,000 shoe file (about 14,000 shoes in). The problem is that once you get to shoe 1000 there is no progression. You just come in with a table limit bet of 1000 and flat bet that. You could reset the shoe number periodically, though, that might work.

    4062 Shoes ... Bankroll 7600 units
    10005 Shoes ... Bankroll 16,500 units
    2500 Shoes ... Bankroll 1700 units (better!)
    25,000 Shoes ... Bust
     
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  14. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    Excellent. Do they make about the same amount of profit?

    Thanks for the quick turnaround. That’s great work you’ve done!!
     

  15. fathead

    fathead Well-Known Member

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    Yes, just one unit per shoe if it did not bust. I may try your version again later, maybe reset the shoe number after X amount of shoes and see how it does. Worth a try.

    You are welcome. Something to think about anyway.
     
  16. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    I look forward to it! This is what the forum should be about - exchange of ideas to make all of us better baccarat players! Thank you again!
     
  17. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    Bbbbwwwwwwwwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhh, I'm just waitin for all the coconut to come outta the woods-works to claim that bettin bankers only is a bad proposition, hey hey.
     
  18. jbs

    jbs Well-Known Member

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    Betting either one of them is a bad proposition.
     
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  19. Bactz

    Bactz Member

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    Fathead, wow very interesting. How did you manage to come up with this method?
     
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2023
  20. Bactz

    Bactz Member

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    What if I only played about 10 shoes per week and reset the count to restart fresh again? Would that solve the issue of having a large bankroll?
    I sort of understand the theory. (But you did say something about the balance had to carry over, right)
    If this alternative play was possible, could the profit amount still be acceptable, assuming you reset after a win?
     

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