Craps Has my strategy idea already been hashed out?

Hi folks. New user, haven't been here long but have studied and read a lot. I've been a ponies player for a long time and would like to delve off into the craps world a little now that it's legal here in good ol' Oklahoma. Lots of Indian casinos and lots of craps tables showing up. To be honest, I've never played craps but I've done my homework and tons of studying. I do IT work for a living and bought and installed WinCraps Pro (hands down the best and its a measly $15) to do my testing. Have literally tested dozens (if not hundreds) of methods, culling some, taking ideas from others, putting the thinking cap on. Let me tell you what I've come up with and someone tell me if this method has already been gone through. Math was always one of my best subjects and so far, both my testing and math have worked out. I can guarantee you that its possible for this system to lose, but the odds appear to be in my favor. Here's what I'm doing....

I'm placing $5 on 5, $6 on 6 and 8. They are working all the time. Come out rolls and regular point rolls, they're all the same with this idea. I also put a $5 bet on the field on every throw of the dice. That gives me a $22 exposure. What this accomplishes is I win $$ on every number thrown except the 7. If a 7 is not rolled, I'll collect either $2 (if a 5, 6, or 8 shows), $5 (if a 3,4,9,10,11 shows) or $10 (if a 2 or 12 shows) on every throw. My strategy is to take down all wagers after 2 wins and wait until a 7 shows up. Sometimes, I'll go for 3 wins then take them down. Then rinse and repeat. I strive to win $10 or a little more each time before I take down my bets but if a lot of 5s, 6s, or 8s show, that's usually when I go for 3 wins before taking down all bets. I'm finding this to work very well with WinCraps testing. Lots of 7s in a row can damage your bankroll a little but you can usually make it back if you stick with it, maybe using the occasional double wager (ie - a 1 or 2 time Martingale). I prefer not to double up however. My goal is not big. I would like to win 25% of my bankroll then call it quits for that session. I start with $200 and strive to win $50. My idea is to win 4 sessions, have a bankroll of $400, then double all place bets and the field bet. Obviously, the goal would then be to win $100 for 2 sessions, then when the bankroll gets to $600, you'll be at $15, $18, $18 on the place bets and $15 on the field. And so on, etc... blah, blah.

Next, the math. Obviously, the only number that hurts is the 7 which can be rolled 6 ways out of 36 possible. That leaves you with an 83.3% chance of winning by hitting some other number (30÷36=83.3333%). That by default leaves you with a 16.7% chance of losing the entire wager ($22). By taking down all the bets after 2 or 3 wins, I'm finding I usually win 4-6-8, sometimes 10 or more times before I lose the entire thing. My wins usually net me enough in profit so that I can withstand the loss.

But wait... it gets better. Now the second part of my strategy. After I take down all the place bets, I continue to wager my $5 on the field, however, I then hop all the 7s for $1. We know the 7 is coming eventually, so I'm gonna make some $$ off of it. Some of the rolls, I'll lose all $8 (if a 5, 6, or 8 shows). If a 3, 4, 9, 10, or 11 shows, I make $2. If the 2 or 12 shows, I make $7. If the 7 shows, I make $7. The math here shows you'll have a 61.1% chance of winning (either $2 or $7) and a 38.9% chance of losing the $8. It seems like it sort of balances out. My testing is showing it doesn't make much, but it does seem to make a little. Sometimes, I'll just use this 2nd part method to let me catch my breath. Then I start back in with the working place and field bets.

Ok there it is... Comments and ideas are fully welcome, flame suit is on. Let me know what you think.

CC

 

Most tables are now minimum $10 or $15 depending on location, days of the week, or time of day. On a $15 minimum table, the hop bets would probably have to be $6 or $9 total on each toss to offset the $15 minimum Field bet. A "hot" shooter will kill the plan. Even a shooter that throws 4 or 5 5's; 6's or 8's before the 7 will create a considerable dent is your bankroll. On a "choppy" table, it might work some. But try it, and let us know.

tuttigym

 

You will NOT endear yourself to the dealers via "My strategy is to take down all wagers after 2 wins"
Better way is to tell the dealer you are off. He will place a lammer on your bet signifying so. Then when ready to restart tell him you are working.

 

Where to begin. First, a correct bet All the six or eight is made in multiples of $6. Unless you are playing bubble craps you'll find table minimums in most casinos are 15 to $25. You may find a few local casinos with $10 games. And that case you're looking at betting $12 each on the 6th and 8 and $10 on the five. You wouldn't bet $10 in the field. A win on the five would provide a push or tie. A win on the six for eight would generate a net $4 win. However it would negate a $14 win of the six or eight because of the $10 loss in the field. The six and eight are your strongest numbers, because there are 10 ways to row the six and eight in combination compared to six ways to roll the seven. This particular strategy has been marketed for a hundred years or so by many systems sellers. It's been called the iron Cross, the anything but seven's system, the umbrella system, the Fremont Street grind. And several other names that escape me at the moment. Play two hits and down is pointless, because mathematically it makes no difference over the long run when you come down. If you play a hundred hands at two hits and down you will have had exposure over 600 tosses. The math of the game should tell you exactly how many sevens you'll see in those 600 tosses. Since you're an IT guy you should have no problem calculating your losses versus your wins over the course of those 600 tosses. Ultimately you lose. There is no system of betting that gives you a positive expectation over craps, period. The only way to beat the game is to learn how to influence the outcome of the roll at toss fewer than the expected number of sevens per hand.

 

Yes I agree, prior to a few years ago the wearing of head gear, caps, hats was not allowed in skipptophia casinoverse. Security, dealer, even the cleaning crew would tell you to take your hat off. Lol.

Recently say 4years max ago you could wear your hat inside the casinoverse so now we look for the guy wearing the aluminium foil hat at the craps table, usually a strong indicator of a dice influencer . Prior to that we had to look for the subtle hints you know the mumbling of incantations as the dice try to slide rather than tumble. The cat weasel hiss as it fails a goes 7 out.

Cheers
Cat weasel actually a tv program from uk

 

That is the Iron Cross Strategy, with a 3.87% HE.

The HE for the second part of your strategy is around 8.35%. You're better off sticking with the IC.

 

When I play, a major part of my plan is betting across the board plus the horn. Taking down my bets after 2 or three hits is essential. I really do not care that the dealers may become "uncomfortable" or irritated at me. I am the patron, and as long as I stay within the rules of the game, their job is to comply with my courteous requests. BTW that betting pattern provides the same 30 ways to win against only 6 ways to lose with a higher payout but perhaps a bit more exposure to loss.

tuttigym

 

Mr.CactusCat: I would encourage you to purchase a craps game simulator such as WinCraps or use the free W of Odds game simulator online to practice your strategy or tweak it or just experiment with different ideas. The WoO simulator does not allow the hop bets but WC does. I practice all the time. It does provide much frustration, but it will help to see how any betting strategy might react. One other point, folks that embrace the "establishment" craps "math," i.e. house edge/advantage can not prove, in real world terms or play, their percentage outcomes. However, if one were to play every hand and/or every roll of the dice the same way, one will lose often.

tuttigym