Horse Racing Hello Everybody From Don Phillips Chief Executive Officer of Thorocap

Despite having a disability Cerebral Palsy which in his case has always been severe; has excelled to a point where he is now the CEO of Thorocap.

Don Phillips, CEO of ThoroCap, is a seasoned sports writer, analyst, columnist, and handicapper who has covered Thoroughbred racing football, basketball and baseball for national audiences.

Don began his career in the industry in 1983 as a columnist for Sports Eye. He was the publisher of The Sports Analyst from 1987 to 1997.

Phillips worked for Sports Advocate from 1997 to 2006.

Currently, I have assembled a very talented staff of writers and handicappers from around the United States.

Thorocap writers cover every aspect of Thoroughbred Racing as the handicappers give their expert analysis of the first 4 horses in each race.

Please visit us at Thorocap. Any inquires please reply


Thank you:
Don

 

about your picks - there are dozens out there giving free picks
are your picks better than their picks
do your picks win in the long run?
do you give free picks (such as one per day) so a prospective purchaser can see whether or not you are winning?



if not why not?

 

I have a suggestion -

why don't you post one pick a day right here so everybody can see how impressive your "talented" handicappers are

 

Great idea! Thank you..

 

Don asked me to post a pick, but I will begin by reporting today's results at Gulfstream.

The top picks were beat a neck, a nose, and a half in 3 of 9 races, but managed to be second place or better in 8 of 9. The 'best bet' was second, and the 'value play' won (though bettors took the 8 to 1 morning line down to 3 to 1)

Betting the top choice across the board showed a profit for the day win, place, or show. It cost $18 dollars each way and returned:

$18.40 to win, $36.40 to place, and $21.70 to show.

So, a $54 across the board bet all day returned $76.50 for about 42% profit on your money.

Below are today's top picks and the reasons for the picks, and I will post something for Saturday in a bit.

-----------------------------------------

The Stout Tout Brian Leonhart

Gulfstream Park 05/31/2019

Best bet-Whiskey Moment (#1 in race 1) Value play-Levy Land (#6 in race 4)

Race 1

1-Whiskey Moment nearly scored in the first try at this level last time. He has back class and the best figures of the bunch. He also has the best early speed, and he should be on the lead or in a good spot early in this race without pace on paper. The evident threats all come from the back of the pack, and he should be able to get the jump on all of them if things go according to plan.

Race 2

4-This well bred filly goes for a top first out trainer in Pletcher. The well bred mare sold for 210k before earning 190k on the track. 3 year old champion sire Bernardini won 6 in a row including the Preakness and Travers before just missing to Invasor in the BC Classic. Pletcher wins about 1 in 4 in all the categories that apply, but only has 1 win in just 4 starts for Sanchez.

Race 3

7-Tweety Kitten ran evenly chasing a slow pace against better last time after a poor break. This daughter of Kitten’s Joy takes a big drop today, and finds little on paper to challenge her if she can bring her best. She should find herself much closer to the lead early in a field with no pace on display. McGoey and Batisita pair for 19% winners.

Race 4

6-Levy Land has a big edge in early speed on paper, and that could translate to a lonely lead early on in this one. He won by daylight at 7f in a similar set-up, and it looks like the extra distance is a good thing for him based on past performances. Rendon takes the mount and is winning at a good clip at this meet. The price should be right after the fade going short against better last time.

Race 5

6-His sire J P’s Gusto won big early on, and won 4 stakes in his first 5 tries, including the grade 1 Del Mar Futurity. He has many winners on the track. The mare won 111k on the track, and did her best running on the grass. O’Connell wins 20% out of the box. She seldom asks for much in the mornings, so the works are actually a bit encouraging. Vasquez has only 1 win in 9 starts for O’Connell, but he is having a great meet. The price is right to give this one a chance.

Race 6

3-Liza Mila seems to be in a great spot to put her early speed to good use today. She should get the lead and have a chance to hold it to the wire at this shorter distance. She’s been on the board in every start this year, so it’s hard to write a ticket without this number. Barboza wins 21% in claiming events, and 22% with Zayas piloting.

Race 7

2-She has back numbers and class that stamp her a deserving favorite against this group. She made a strong wide move into contention in the turn last time and then was bumped and pushed out at the top of the stretch. The move to an inside post should help her save ground early and save the late kick for the stretch. Dwoskin wins 13% on the grass and 15% with Vasquez up. She still needs to work out a trip, but with the better draw, she can revert to stalking rather than trying to circle the field.

Race 8

2-Lovesick seems ready to come back running off a series of good looking works. Fawkes gets 14% winners off the bench, and 16% in stakes and with Zayas aboard. The ‘wrap up late’ comment jumps off the page, hinting her fast track number could have been better. She has every right to improve from age 2 to 3, and could easily run a number that should win this if everything is right with her. She has the speed to be close or lead early, but could face a challenge up front.

Race 9

2-She Fled the Scene should be able to get in much better position early to save ground from this inside draw. She has the speed to lead early or stalk the pace, and enough late kick to hold them off if things go right. O’Connell wins 21% in maiden claimers and 20% at a profit with Zazas in the irons. Her numbers fit well here, and she drops a touch in class this time, too.

 

Well, Don said to post "A" pick, but I will just toss out the whole card. The file would not transfer, so I cut and pasted and took out the parts that don't transfer over well. I'm sure you all can find your own morning lines and other info you need on your own.

I hope it points you to some winners if you try to put it to the test. Good luck.

----------------------------------

The Stout Tout Brian Leonhart

Gulfstream Park 06/01/2019

Best bet-Source Control (#4 in race 7) Value play-Sky Point (#7 in race 6)

Race 1

4-El Corazon looks to be the speed of the speed in here, and could take them a long way, especially if Plea Bargain does not push too hard early. Nobody else seems likely to push the pace in here. This one fits on the numbers and on class, and just missed behind a next out winner in the last try at this level. Rodriguez does not show a win in only 7 tries for this trainer.

8-Lookin Forever finds a soft group for the class today, and might be the top choice if he had a better draw and/or a better set-up. He could have trouble saving ground or finding a good spot from the outside without much early speed. He also seems up against it on pace without much speed signed on. He still fits on figures and could get a part if the trip is kind.

5-This one adds blinks, but it is doubtful that will be enough to get him a good spot early. He also faces a tall task without much speed in the race on paper. He does fit in on figures, so he could get involved late with clear sailing.

6-Brag Dude looks on the edges based on speed figures, but he seems to have enough early lick to get the jump on many of these. That could be enough of an edge to earn him a part, as there are not many serious contenders, and most of them will be coming from the clouds and hoping for racing luck to get involved.

Race 2

3-Red carats just missed last time at this level. He has back class, and had a right to need that one off a serious layoff. Any move forward would make him very tough against these. Nagle hits 13% with claimers, and sends out a go to rider in Camacho, who wins 31% for her. Sire Tale of Ekati won the Cigar Mile, and the mare won at 7 and 9 furlongs, so the distance seems just right. He should be near the front going this far.

1-Mysterio woke up for his new trainer and has been knocking on the door in the last few efforts. He must be respected in his current form, and has 3 of the top figures on the page for his last 3 races. The weight break for the bug rider is a plus going this far.

7-Golden Prince is getting a bit better each time, and he was in shouting distance of the second choice last time when he was hung wide. Barboza wins 18% in maiden claiming events, but does not show a win in only 2 mounts for Rodriguez.

6-That’s All He Wrote has good speed that might prove dangerous at this distance. The turf to dirt move could shake him up, and it works 15% of the time for Pinchin. There are 2 sharp works since that last race, and he drops to the lowest level he’s seen today. Vasquez has been strong at this meet, but does not show a win for Pinchin in only 8 attempts.

Race 3

6-Broadcast Time seems to have a nice edge in early speed today. He has been going quicker early each race for a few tries now. The fractions he set 2 back on the turf should see him alone up front today if he can repeat them. He is still young enough for improvement, and any move forward off that best turf effort could make him a winner.

2-Drill Down Dude is also young and improving, and might be quick enough to get in a good stalking position and save ground. He’s been close behind next out winners in the last couple tries, and the numbers were solid. Not much separates the top 2.

7-Awesome Stack was in front of Drill Down Dude last time, but they both had a bit of trip trouble. This one seems more vulnerable to trip or pace issues, and more inconsistent, so he gets knocked down to third choice. Batista is a go to rider for Rizo, with 23% wins when they pair up.

3-Fried Plantaine is ranked well below the top 3, but there are no others that even move the needle. He has good speed, and could possibly lead early if things break his way.

Race 4

4-Garter and Tie seems to have plenty of pace lined up on paper to set up a late charge. He has some of the best figures in the bunch, and plenty of back class. Sanchez has not had a lot of winners for Nicks in 26 tries, but he was on board for 2 near misses in the last 2 stakes races.

7-Gladiator King nosed out the top choice 2 back with a front running victory, but seems to have plenty of competition for the lead today. The other 2 speeds have the 2 inside spots, and it won’t be easy to carve out a lead in here. Upgrade his chances if one of them scratches.

2-Leaky Cup is probably the second best early speed in the lineup. He’s put in 3 sharp efforts in a row, but he will have to pass the class test to score today. He came home in good time in the last race even though he was second. Sano and Jaramillo combine for 23% wins. He could hold on for a part with a big effort.

5-Café Du Monde was third behind the top 2 choices last time, and might be able to put in a similar effort today. He should be moving forward when some of the speed is caving in, and could pass runners late for a tri or super finish.

Race 5

4-Mia Cuamia should be up front early today without a lot of company, but she is able to stalk if needed. She drops down in class today, and that should help. The race 2 back was very fast early and late, and she was not far back at the wire even though most of the field got to her late.

3-Faithful Sue could be set for her best in the third start off the layoff. She is a bit light on class, but appears to be in top form. Her best stacks up well against these. Belsoeur wins 18% in claiming races, and 10% with Jimenez up. This one has been in the money in 9 of 14 turf efforts.

5-Patient Dogma seems to be working back into top form, and her best efforts mark her a contender today. She has enough early speed to get first run on the top choice turning for home. It has been 2 years since she got her picture taken, though, so she might figure better for the bottom than the top of exotic bets.

9-Voila La Victoire has just enough pace to chase in here to give her a shot. But, the draw did her no favors. It won’t be easy to work out a good trip from out here, but she can come running late for a part, at least.

Race 6

7-Sky Point was over his head in the last couple starts. It seems clear he did not want to be on the grass 2 back, and he caught a sharp group last time that went fast early and late. The 2 efforts prior look like winning numbers against this group. This is the lowest level he has seen today, and he seems to have the best late kick of these if he can work out a good trip.

3-Cool Mover has been in the exacta 4 of 8 times at this distance. He has numbers that fit against this group, but he will need to work out a trip, too, and lacks the big late kick of the top pick. The trainer wins 23% in claiming events, but only has 2 tries without a victory when sending out Lopez.

1-Cotton To has good back class, and his best numbers make him look competitive in here if he can give his best today. If you draw a line through the turf starts and the races where he was over his head in class, he starts to have a much better look to him. He had a couple excuses last time when bumped early and forced to go wide late, and he was right behind the second choice that day.

2-Ebrio will need his very best today. But, he does look to have an edge in early speed on paper, and he has done his best running on or near the lead in the past. The stretch out could help him get to the front, and he won his only try at this distance. Rodriguez wins 23% in claiming races, but does not show a start for Arroyo. The bug weight allowance could prove useful, especially at the distance.

Race 7

4-Source Control has a big edge in speed ratings that is hard to ignore in this battle. He should have plenty of pace to set up his late run today. He also has back class and back figures that tower over this group if he is ready to run back to them. Torres keeps the faith, but shows only 1 try without a win for Kurtinecz. This trainer shows a profit with 16% winners in claiming races.

9-He made a big late move last time to beat a next out winner by 5 lengths. He was right behind a next out winner in the race prior, so it looks like the light bulb has turned on for this one. With further improvement, he could take this, but he figures to get a part if he stays in good form. The draw will make things tough, but a big late move like the last one could overcome it if he saves ground early.

7-Dazzling Prose has been going a bit better in each try since the DQ, and finally put it all together when put on the grass last time out. He has the speed to get in good position early, and numbers that stack up well against all but the top choice.

5-Arago has the speed to be close early, and adds blinks just to be sure. He is young and improving, but will need a new best effort to win this. The change of trainers and jockeys could spark an improvement. It’s not easy to see him on top at the wire, but he might get a small part.

Race 8

2-Nikki Bella drops to the lowest level she’s ever seen off the layoff, and figures to dominate if she is able to bring her best. She has the best speed of the group if she is in good form. The only work that shows is not encouraging, so there is doubt. But, Barboza must be respected with 32% wins off the bench, and the same hit rate when Jaramillo is riding.

1-Fergielicious goes first off the claim for Zerpa, and that is a big deal with 46% wins at a profit showing off the claim for Zerpa. She drops a notch in class as well, but a couple of these runners beat her home last time when she was sent off near even money. There is a nice bullet work showing since that race. Zayas is a go to rider for this barn, with 44% wins.

5-Tuesday’s Rose has been on the board 8 times since Christmas, and still seems to be in fine form coming off a pair of wins, including a victory against better last time. She figures to find her way on the board once again today, but her lack of early speed could make another win tough to pull off, as both the top choices figure to get the jump on her.

10-Cotton Tooyah has good back class, and had a couple nice exacta finishes before something went wrong in the last contest. Mongeon has good success on display with limited starters, and Berrios is a go to rider with 23% wins for this trainer.

Race 9

7-Too Stormy shows the best figures on the page, and his grinding style figures to give him a shot no matter how the pace shakes out today. He’s been on the board in 10 of 15 tries at this distance on the grass. Spatz wins 15% in claiming events, and 18% when Vasquez pilots.

3-Baxter trains for just the second race today, and she gets 24% winners second time off the bench, and 21% with Jaramillo in the irons. The numbers this one hit on the grass make him look like a contender here, though it’s not clear how the cut back will play out for him. They add blinks, so may intend to have him close early, and that should play well in a group without much pace.

6-Areyoutalkingtome has numbers that fit well here, and plenty of back class. He tends to come from the back on the grass, especially at this distance, so he will need a good trip. He has managed to hit the board in 8 of 14 efforts at this trip, so he can find a way with a little luck. Quiroz shows a big profit with 13% winners on the green, and 2 of 3 wins so far with Sanchez on board.

10-There is a drop off after the first 3 choices. Further, this one will need a good trip to get a part from this unlucky draw. But, he has a good late kick that could get him involved if the sailing is clear. Reyes and Rodriguez combine for 13% wins.

Race 10

(This appears to be a very evenly matched, wide open affair, so the “all” button or a pass might be the real top choice)

1-Gnarly has back numbers and back class that look strong against these. He’s done his best running at this distance with 5 of 7 efforts in the money. There is no reason he could not be on the board once more, and a top effort could easily take this. Sanchez seems to be a go to rider for this barn with 14% wins at a profit for backers.

6-Glory of Florida moved forward in the last couple enough to score against special weight runners last time. They put him in a fairly conservative spot today off that win. His best number fits well, and Jaramillo stays on board. He gets 23% wins riding for Sano. There is a nice work on display since that race.

5-Kong Style was moving forward nicely before the last disappointing effort, and gets the ultimate equipment change for this one. Maragh deserves another chance with this one, and shows 43% victories in allowance races and 38% with Vasquez holding the reins. The big number 2 back could take this if he can run back to it.

7-Fortunate Friends has the best late kick of the group, and looks like a threat if he is able to repeat the last effort while facing tougher today. He has 2 sharp works since that race that say he is still in good form. He will need to get the trip and pass the class test, but he is not without a chance.

Race 11

7-Yako simply had to wait too long for room to run in the last effort, and looked strong when she got free too late. She has solid numbers and big back class that make her look like a deserving favorite in here. Zayas sees fit to stay on and looks like a go to rider for this barn with 13% wins in a large sample.

1-Oscura has speed and the rail, and nobody who looks to threaten her early lead on paper but Subsidiary, who is stretching out and getting on the grass for the first time. This one has not passed many runners on the page, so she will need to get comfortable early to succeed. She has a couple nice works since the last race that say go, and the price should be right to give her a shot.

5-Money Factor has back numbers and class that stack up well against these. She has run well off the layoff a couple times that show on the page. The works don’t say much, but a lot of closers don’t do much in the a.m. She will bring the best late kick of the group if she is ready for her best.

8-Final Flurry might be set for her best in the third try off the layoff, and she would need it to get home first on the wire. But, getting a piece of the tri or super late does seem more realistic. Even though she seems better on the dirt, she has been on the board 7 of 12 times at the distance on the grass, and this could be the spice for your exotic bets at 20 to 1 morning line.

Race 12

2-See the Song is a son of Ontario champion sire Uncaptured, who has had his share of winners on the track in his short career at stud, especially this year. The mare was a hard trying runner who hit the board in 35 of 56 lifetime starts. This trainer has success with limited starters, and there is a nice work from the gate showing a couple weeks back.

3-Poe is an Arindel home bred. They have had good success with Brethren as a sire, and the mare won 35k on the track for them. He gets the makeover package with blinks and Lasix after a disappointing first try. He tried to keep up with very swift early fractions in that race, and held third by a wide margin behind the runaway leader and a closer. Sanchez sticks and gets 16% at a break even return for backers riding for Gold.

6-Khozan has had great early success as a sire, especially for these owners. The modestly bred mare was unraced and unsold. A couple strong works show from the gate.

5-The works look good and Joseph is very strong overall, but first time out is not his strongest angle, with only 2 winners in 21 tries. The breeding is modest and the price does not seem worth the risk. Take him next time at a better price if he disappoints today. He is one to include in multi-race bets and maybe try to beat in vertical plays.

 

here are the results of your first picks here in advance of the races

your top pick in each race - $2.00 across the board

Race 1..........3rd..........lost $3.20
Race 2.........out of money..............lost $6.00
Race 3..........1st...........won $5.70
Race 4...........1st..........won $3.60
Race 5..........3rd...........lost $3.20
Race 6..........2nd...........lost $.20
Race 7 - your best bet - out of money...........lost $6.00
Race 8........out of money.............................lost $6.00
Race 9........2nd.............lost $.20
Race 10.......out of money.............................lost $6.00
Race 11.......out of money.............................lost $6.00
Race 12.......out of money.............................lost $6.00


Results:

Total amount wagered $72.00

Net Loss...................$33.50

ROI = -46.5%

 

I also noticed that in 7 races your top pick was the morning line favorite
in 3 races your top pick was the 2nd favorite (morning line)
in one race your top pick was the 3rd favorite (morning line)
and in one race your top pick was a shot (morning line)

 

Of course, you are right that focus on the top choice on that particular card would not have led to a profitable day, but I think you are on the wrong track to imply that focus on favorites is a doomed strategy. As evidence, I would ask you to look at the total return on all the picks from yesterday.

If you boxed all 4 picks in the exacta for a dollar each way, counting the two scratches, you would have invested $132.00 over 12 races, and you would have cashed out $227.10 at the windows.

If you boxed all four choices in the trifecta for 50 cents each way, you would have laid out $126.00, and cashed out $195.20.

So, taking that broader focus, you bet $258.00 and took back $422.30 for 63% profit.

If you read all the commentary, sometimes it will flat out tell you "this top choice should win", or "anyone can win this race", and often the tone will leave you somewhere in between. I doubt many of us simply bet our top choice to win in every race. On that sheet, the winners were there, with 8 exacta combinations and 10 winners in those 12 races among the picks. So, sometimes you might bet to win, and sometimes you should spread. But, there is nothing inherently foolish about finding the most likely winners and forming your tickets around them in various ways, and there was value in those picks, even if I was not able to sort out the winner from among some evenly matched runners in many cases.

I will admit that I would have been happy to tell you that I had 7 winners if it went down that way. But, I am not ashamed to tell you that I gave you 8 exactas and 6 trifectas the way it did go down.

 

I grant you the points you have made
I also note, that in your first picks posted for 5/31 after the races were over you only reported WPS results, so that is why I calculated it that way
I am going to assume, without further calculation, that your strategy of boxing 4 exacta and 4 trifecta picks in these picks did not win or at least not by a significant amount or you would have posted that - referring to your picks of 5/31

If I am wrong about this I will apologize in advance


I recognize that you have significant knowledge of racing and handicapping



the most important thing I have to say about your picks is this:



you are making picks for every race
I don't believe anybody, including you, can win in the long run by betting every race
I believe that to win in the long run it is necessary to pick your spots very carefully



the exception would be if a player occasionally hits a gigantic payout on an extreme exotic - superfecta, pick 5 or pick 6 or even a tri with a large field and some shots in there

since the variance is so high on this type of bet it is all but impossible to calculate whether or not a player has an edge on these type of bets

so, again, unless a player is willing to throw some bucks out there in search of a giant score, I don't believe it is wise to bet every race



thank you very much for your picks

this has been very interesting to me

 

One last point:

you are making your picks (I believe) using the morning line to estimate that payout and value
of course, the morning line is often off and fairly often way off

so, if you really like a horse at 5/1 I would think you might not like him if he's bet down to 2/1

is that your fault? no. that is nature of your business

although I will note that there is at least one service I know about where the capper states for example: "he's 8/1 on the morning line and acceptable at 6/1 or better" - and BTW I am not recommending that service that I am referring to

 

Smoke, you clearly know the game, and I understand and respect your skepticism. I would be looking at a product like this with the same healthy doubt. I certainly don't recommend that anyone play every race, and I also doubt you could be a long term winner doing that, unless you varied the amount you played, perhaps. But, the reality is that most people do play every race, or almost every race, until they run out of cash.

I simply try to create a 'bumper bowling' universe, where a player can feel comfortable that they are choosing from the most likely winners, along with a precious few that smell of value at morning line odds. Someone who is using a sheet like this would still have to respond to the board, and conditions on the track, scratches and such to make it pay. I feel confident you could use it in that way.

Some others have little ability or understanding of the game. They may be casual players, just there to drink with their friends, or simply don't like to make the effort to handicap at a reasonable level (and that really does take time and effort!). They could use the sheet at a simpler level, by playing across the board, boxing or playing exacta or tri keys right off the picks, and taking whatever falls to them. For that type of player, it also serves a purpose.

Anyway, it is a good discussion and I appreciate your insight and suggestions, but for now at least I have to keep things manageable for me, as this takes an enormous amount of my time already. Don asked me to pour out a few more picks, so I will dump the whole card on you once again. Cheers.


Best bet-Unlimited Data (#9 race 11) Value play-Newman’s Fast Girl (#3 race 5)

Race 1

6-Mr Stark probably needed that last race off the bench and figures strong against these if he can move forward from it. He has back class and the best early speed of the group. Jaramillo stays on board, and he is a go to rider for Gonzalez, with 23% wins riding for him. The works since the comeback race hint at improvement. He’s found a soft spot to notch the first win.

5-Maturin has a few efforts that could challenge these. He has some of the best late kick of the group, but there does not seem to be a lot of pace to chase other than the top pick. Camacho keeps the faith, and with a bit of improvement and some racing luck, he could play a part.

2-Tiz Luna has had many chances now, so value is a bit suspect on the win end. But, he seems to have found a field soft enough that he can make a big dent. He has little early speed and also lacks a big late run, so he will need things to break just right to succeed, even against this bunch.

1-He was moving forward with every try until getting hung wide in the turn last time. Even though he did not hit the number last time, he was still closer on the wire and showed some good interest late. He has back class, and Lebron stays on board.

race 2

6-Florida Cotton moves up from Florida state bred claimers today in the second try for Dobles. The first try was a sharp victory, and he could move forward today based on his back numbers and class. Dobles wins 20% off a victory, and has 2 wins in 4 rides for Zayas. He should be sitting right behind Soldollie to get first run if that one is not in top form off the bench.


5-Soldollie seems to have the best speed on the page, and also the best figures. The issue is form off a long layoff. Maragh wins 43% in allowance races, and 21% with Maragh riding. If he is ready, he could lead every step of this. The works don’t have much to say.


1-Navarro seems to have this one in good form for the second try off the claim. He got a nice number in that win, and won by daylight. But, the final time and the late fractions were nothing special, and you have to go back to 2017 to find his last win before that one. So, value seems a bit shaky as the morning line favorite. If he really is sharp enough to run back to his best numbers, then he should win, but a bounce also seems possible.


3-Art’s Table is moving a few rungs up the class ladder off 3 straight wins, but he is the only one in shouting distance of the top picks on paper. He has run a better number in each start lately, and another forward move could put him into the mix. There are no strong angles showing, so he figures better for the bottom of the exotics than the top.

race 3

(In truth nothing appeals in this race but the “all” button or a pass)


7-Zanno is a default choice on the big drop from special weights. Ward gets 30% winners second time out of the box, and has 2 wins in 10 tries with Nunez. Sire Verrazano won the Wood and the Haskell and has many successful runners on the track. The mare went for 100k at auction before winning 59k on the track. This is one you might like to try to beat at the price offered, but nothing appeals as a strong alternative.


2-Treasure Beach is a strong sire, and this one’s mare was a tough runner, hitting the board in 36 of 56 lifetime efforts. However, she sold for only 1k as breeding stock. A nice work shows from the gate last time. Batista is a solid choice to ride, and gets 22% wins when paired with this trainer.


8- Yes for Less offers suspect value at the morning line, but he does show one nice work from the gate. Kantharos is a solid sire, but the mare never hit the board in 5 tries before selling for 20k in the ring.


3-El Pillo offers sire Treasure Beach one more shot in this one. The mare won 5 of 20 for 162k on the track before going for as much as 100k in the ring. The breeding seems to give him a shot, but no other angles stick out.

race 4

1-Beau Trace goes to Calabrese and Joseph off the claim, and that is a powerful combination. Joseph gets 32% winners first time off the claim, and 33% with Zayas piloting. This one has good back class and displayed plenty of late kick going shorter, so the stretch out today might be just the ticket.


6-Borough Boy flashed some good speed on the turf last time before fading. The way he is working in the a.m. hints that he should have no trouble transferring that speed to the main track. He adds blinks to help him focus on getting to the front, and he will have plenty of time and room to get in position before the turn. He brings class, too, and Jimenez is having a good meet.


2-This 4 year old probably needed the last race off the bench, and has a right to move forward today. He has the best figure for the group, but not by much of a margin. The value looks shaky at morning line odds. He drops from special weights, and Nicks wins 21% on that drop to maiden claimers, and 20% with Jaramillo up, but these angles do not point to value at near even money odds.


5-I Stand Corrected is an unknown on the dirt. He did hit a couple nice numbers on the turf, but he did not show a bit of speed in any of his races, and he will need to get involved earlier to have any say in the outcome today.

race 5

3-Newman’s Fast Girl had an excuse in the last run with big trouble at the break in a turf sprint, where there is little time to recover from such issues. She has good back numbers, and could be ready to run back to them in the third try off the bench. She also has good back class, and probably fits well at this level despite a couple misses in the last 2 efforts. She was 2 to 1 in the first run at this level, and you are likely to get a much better price today.


6-Regal Embrace has improved in each start for O’Connell, enough to get her to the winner’s circle at Tampa Bay Downs last time. O’Connell gets a winner 18% of the time off a victory, and 21% in claiming races. Rendon has a win in only 7 tries for her, and he is on fire at this meet.


7-Uncaptured Angel goes right back to the turf despite scoring on the dirt in a washed out race last time. She also improved in each turf start, but the margin of improvement has been slim. Joseph makes good on a win ticket for backers 28% of the time off a victory, and 25% with Samuel riding. This looks like the right spot for her.


4-This class dropper has some back numbers that stack up well in here, and she could be set for a best effort in the third try off the layoff. She has better speed than she has shown in the last 2 runs, and it would be to her benefit to show it at this shorter distance. If she recovers her form, she should be a factor, but it is far from certain that she will.


(AE list: 13, 14, and 16 for tri or super if in)

race 6

1-Ritvo gets the benefit of the doubt to have this one ready to give her best in the third try off the rest. This filly has made a dent 3 times in a row now, and any improvement could get her home first. She was no match for the winner last time, but nearly won the battle for ‘best of the rest’. She gets in light with the bug rider, who does not show a ride yet for Ritvo, but is winning at a fine clip for the meet.


2-Not Regret also gets in light with a bug rider. She was the best of the rest in her last effort at a bigger claiming price. She won’t have to move forward much off that race to factor today, and she is certainly eligible to do it. She has some of the best speed of the bunch to get her in position today.


6-Sierra Love has had 30 chances, so value on the win end is quite shaky, though her best numbers do fit well enough. You need to consider this one for the bottom of vertical plays, but she is the kind you love to try to beat on top.


7-Jenna Dawn has also had many chances, but she has had some close calls, with 8 second place finishes in 27 tries. She has more speed than she has shown in the last few efforts, and she would be well served to bring it today in this rather paceless lineup. With 4 superfecta finishes in the last 5, she makes sense to finish off the vertical plays.

race 7

2-Gran Diamond had a valid excuse in the last race when she was squeezed back to last early. She might have needed that race off the bench, anyway. She normally runs much closer to the front, and should be a factor with a clean break this time. Barboza wins 24% second time off the bench, and 32% with Jaramillo in the saddle. She drops in class today to further help the cause.


9-This runner has been improving and contended for the win in the last couple starts for Sano. She won’t have to move forward much to contend today, and does not face much in here. Note that the drop to this class in the last 2 tries resulted in her first 2 finishes on the board.


1-Maxixe has back numbers and class that make her look like a possible winner against this group. But, she may need one off the long layoff. The works are on the slow side, especially for a runner with good early speed. Crichton wins 30% of the time with new runners, but does not show a start for Lopez. She has ability if she can bring her best, but she might be better next time with a race under her belt.


6-There is a drop off after the first 3 choices, but this runner did flash some ability in the last effort. She hit the board with a fair number in that race, and she might get into the mix if she can move forward. The trainer wins 17% off the layoff, but does not show a ride for Sanchez.

race 8

10-Mr Lukas won by daylight in the slop after grabbing an easy lead. It is fair to downgrade a performance under those circumstances, but Baxter takes over off the layoff and has this one working lights out in the mornings. She gets 18% winners with new runners, and 28% overall in claiming events. Torres does not have a win for her in only 1 try, but the record at the meet is strong, and the bug allowance can’t hurt.


5-Draw a line through the turf starts, and Soupery Dupery looks much better. He has been on the board in all 4 races on the dirt, and got the job done last time. He goes in a very reasonable placement off that maiden score, and Sanchez keeps the faith. Sanchez looks like a go to rider for this barn with 14% wins for them.


1-Smooth As is a very difficult runner to assess in this spot. He has back class and numbers that look strong at this level, but he has not made a dent in any start since the barn change after the claim in March. He was in fifth at this level 2 back, though he did catch a tough group that day, with 2 next out winners in front at the wire.


2-Rigo has been on the edges for a while at this level, and figures to play a small part once again. He looks up against it on pace, with no speed to get in position early in what could be a race with no pace. Figure him to come running late for a part of the tri or super.

race 9

12-Sleeping Giant has strong numbers and good form to bring from the outside draw. He also has enough speed to work into good position before the turn. Zerpa wins 32% second time off the layoff, and 44% with Zayas holding the reins. He has been within a length at the wire in many starts in a row now, and figures to be right there once more today.


8-Diamond Mint won off the claim for Degado, and comes right back at the same tag. He has some of the best speed of this group on paper, and could lead a long way, and maybe every step of this one if things go according to plan. Zerpa wins at 31% in claiming races, and Jaramillo has taken him to the winner’s circle in 3 of 5 races so far.


1-Padilla has the best numbers on the page in his turf races, and has not been able to get on the grass yet this year. Despite being in contention, he was nowhere near his lifetime best on the dirt in the 3 races this year. That makes you wonder if he is ready to run back to his best turf numbers at this point. This veteran has been in the exacta about half the time in his career, so he could threaten if everything is OK. Rendon is a good choice to ride.


11-Diamond Majesty seems to be in top form for Biancone, and found his way onto the board in the last 3 runs on the grass. He missed a length against better last time, and won for this tag 3 back. He has little speed to get involved early, and does not have a big late kick, either, so he will need a good trip to factor.


(AE list: 13 for tri if in)

race 10

1-It makes sense for Hess to try for the stakes with this one in his current good form. He was right behind next out winners 2 and 3 back, and beat a good one by daylight in Harryhee last time. It’s not clear how the pace will play out. Ceevee seems like the speed, but has been going longer and on the turf. This one should be on the lead or in position to get first run, so it might play out in his favor either way. Jimenez was also aboard in that last score.


3-Hy Riverside had an excuse in the last time when he had to wait for room to run. He might have needed that effort off the bench, too. He was in the money 6 times prior to that. The numbers fit well, and he seems to have the best late kick of the group. Vasquez looks like a go to rider for this barn, with 14% wins for them.


6-Eye of a Jedi is young and improving, with numbers that are approaching what it would take to contend today. He also has a good late kick, and could come calling for a part of this late, when a few others are going the wrong way late. There is a nice work showing since the last race, but Sanchez does not show a mount for this barn yet.


5-Ceevee is a tough call in this one after showing good speed going longer and going on the grass. He does have 2 wins on wet tracks, but note that he has not even been on the board on a fast track, making his morning line look very suspect in terms of value. Zayas sees fit to ride again off the tough victory on a good track last time. Note that the number came back soft for that race, but there is a nice bullet work since.


race 11

9-Unlimited Data drops in class despite a very strong performance last time. He had a rough start, and overcame it with a big wide move late that almost got him to the wire on time. He has a tough post, but has the late punch to get the job done anyway if he can save ground early. He should be closer early this time, even from the outside, if he can avoid the poor start.


5-Bluesky Kitten has been in contention several times in a row now, and hit numbers that figure well in here. He has enough early speed to be up close early, and not many in here look to have pace to offer today. De La Cerda hits 14% in maiden claiming races, but does not show a mount yet for Torres, who gets in light.


4-Robintakincharge could have a huge edge in early speed in this race, and that could carry him a long way today. Gonzalez wins 16% with new runners, and 17% at a profit with claimers. He does not have a win in 9 starts for Camacho, but that rider is having a great year.


10-Hard Count has numbers that mark him a contender for Maker, but the outside draw will make things tough for this one. Without much speed to offer out of the gate, he looks to be hung wide early and/or have a lot to do turning for home. He does bring class, and good numbers, and Zayas gets 17% winners for Maker.

This is a shortened version, missing morning lines and off the turf picks and such, but enough to get a taste if the track is fast and firm.

 

very impressive - yor top pick won the first 4 in a row - and you had at least one other winner as your top pick and I think a couple other 2nds or 3rds

I didn't do a complete tracking

Note: Ritvo in race 6 and Hess in Race 10 did not run, and are not shown as being scratches or entries. I'm not sure why

take care

 

That last card had some winners, but it just made for a break even day depending on how you played. Don wants more, so I will drop one or two more on you, and then lay off. Here is Friday:

(best of luck if anyone plays along)

Gulfstream Park 06/07/2019

Best bet-Royal Squeeze (#1 in race 2) Value play-Chiqui the Gray (#1 in race 6)

race 1

5-Vassy has back class and numbers that look strong against this group. He seemed to be putting it all together before the break. He has the best early speed in this lineup on paper, and also some of the best late kick. He just missed a length in a very quick mile last time. Kassen wins 14% off the layoff, but does not show a a win for Batista in 8 mounts.

1-Rudiger runs for the powerhouse combination of Calabrese and Joseph. Joseph hits at 27% in claiming events, and has 2 wins in 4 rides for Lebron. This one has a strong late kick, but without early speed, he will have to avoid getting shuffled to the back from this rail draw. He’s dropping to the lowest level yet today, and should be a factor if the trip is kind.

2-This trainer and jockey are both having strong meets, and this runner woke up last time out in the first run for this trainer. He has back class that makes him look like a good fit at this level. But, he is also subject to a bad trip with his late closing style, and there is not a lot of pace to chase on paper.

4-Lucky Fast comes off a win with a number attached that stamps him a contender. But, he steps up in class, and will have to prove it was no fluke, as it was a new lifetime top. The trainer has good stats with limited starters, including 16% winners in claiming races, and a win in 2 tries with Zayas riding.

Off the turf picks-2,6,7,1

race 2

1-Royal Squeeze won 3 straight once Dobles took over, which is no surprise the way she is winning at this meet. He beat a good runner in Garter and Tie last time, and takes a big drop to a spot where he figures to dominate. He has the speed to lead, or he can stalk Fundy’s Tide if that one recovers his best form. Dobles wins 23% coming off a victory, and has 3 wins in 10 mounts for Rendon.

5-Ella’s My Love looks like the best chance to upset the top choice in the first try for Jospeh. Joseph wins first off the claim 33% of the time, and 34% when Zayas pilots. He just missed behind a next out winner last time in a quick race, and beat a next out winner 2 back. He will probably have to come from the back this time. He put in a sharp 5 furlong bullet work just 5 days ahead of this contest.

3-Allurstra hit a new lifetime best in the last race, and will likely need to improve on that effort to factor today. He did win in a sharp time, and by enough distance to hint that he might have had more to offer if he needed it. He jumps up in class to a protected spot this time, and will have to move forward to beat the top choice if that one runs to form. Pompay wins 23% off a victory, and 21% with Reyes in the saddle.

6-All Golden is light on numbers but did manage to hit the board in the last 3 runs. He does not seem likely to challenge for the win. However, he has a good late kick, and he might be going well late when some of the others are going the wrong way. He could finish off the tri or super at a big price in this small field.

Wet track picks-1,4,5,2

race 3

4-Solar Warming looks to be in top form for Dobles since the claim. He just missed in the washed off race last time, and in the race 2 back he also just missed on the grass in a very sharp time. He’s been close to the pace in the last few turf tries, and that strategy should play well in a lineup without a lot of speed on paper. Dobles is strong and showing a profit for backers in all the angles that apply, including 3 wins in just 10 races with Rendon riding.

2-Baffin Bay won 3 of the last 5, and lost the other 2 to Vow Me Now, who is 4 for 4 this year, including a stakes victory in his last race. This one has good back class and strong figures that stack up well in here. But, with neither a strong early or late pace rating, he will need to work out a good trip to score. Joseph scores at 27% with claimers, and 34% with Zayas up.

5-Little separates the top 3 choices on paper, but this one faces a class test in the first try against winners today. He does have the advantage of good early speed in a race with little other early pace, and that could translate into a good trip. He’s been in the exacta 3 times in a row on the grass, with numbers that match up well. Casse wins 20% in claiming events, and 11% with Jaramillo.

7-Ace Dinero is a notch below the top choices on paper, and faces the prospect of a tough trip with little speed to get in position from this outside draw at this layout. He does have a good late kick, though, so he might get involved for a small part late if the trip does work out in his favor.

Off the turf picks-4,3,5,6

race 4

1-Dalal looks like an easy top pick or single for multi-race wagers, but the price may not appeal. She has the best early speed and the best figures of the group, and drops in class today off the claim. Delgado wins 44% off the claim, and has 4 wins in only 7 mounts for Jaramillo. There is little to beat here on paper, without a dirt figure in shouting distance of this one showing for the rest.

2-She ran a couple decent numbers on the grass in the last 2 tries against better. It’s not clear that she can transfer those efforts to the dirt, but it is fair to give her another shot, after only 1 dirt race showing in a special weight. Pompay wins 18% in maiden claiming races, but does not show a mount for Torres. The bug weight break can’t hurt, though.

3-Shanghai Sweetheart has a similar record to the second choice, with a soft number on the dirt and a couple decent numbers on the grass. She did get close in the race 3 back on the dirt, even though the number was soft. And, she flashed some good speed in the turf tries. She couldn’t carry it 7 and a half last time, but did stay on for third going 5 and a half, so the cut back today could be a plus.

5-Chantilly Lilly ran a lifetime best in the first try off the long layoff. She could not match strides with the odds on winner, but managed to stay on for third. She had a right to need that race off the long rest, and could factor if she improves.

Wet track picks-1,2,3,5

race 5

1-My Sarasota Star brings great early speed to the rail draw today, and does not figure to have to duel for the lead this time if she breaks well. She hit the best number on the page in that first try on the grass, and could easily improve with less pressure up front this time. The breeding is strong for grass and sprints, so the last one is probably not a fluke.

4-Gilda F. is a rare first timer for Calabrese and Joseph, who claim most of their runners. Kantharos is a strong sire, but the mare won just 1 of 5 before selling for only 7.5k at auction. There is a series of nice works showing, and Joseph hits 9% first time, but only has 1 win in 12 starts with Jaramillo.

6-Introspective has been moving forward and put in a good run in the first time on the grass last time. She has good early speed, but faces a challenge from the 2 inside runners early today. She’s been on the board in 5 of the last 6.

7-This one is a puzzler. Calabrese and Joseph first off the claim is a combination that hits at 33% overall, and Lebron has 2 wins in 4 mounts for Joseph. But, this one barely moved the needle in the first effort in a washed out race, and steps up in class off that poor try. There are some good works showing, but it seems like a tall order to factor on the class hike.

Off the turf picks-1,4,6,7

race 6

1-This one showed good speed in a victory going longer last time, and the cut back might be a plus. She was claimed out of that race, and Barboza wins 35% off the claim, and 32% with go to rider Jaramillo aboard. She beat a next out winner in the last race by daylight, and seems to be in the right spot today.

6-Micah’s Girl battled all the way around the track in the last race, and should be a strong factor if she can bring it again or improve off that effort. She might be set for her best in the third try off the bench. She seems to have the best early speed in the group, so the cut back might also be in her favor. Vaccarezza wins 10% in claimers, but does not show a race with Rendon riding.

5-Lailoni could benefit if the top 2 or the outside runner go after each other early. She has the best late kick in a field full of runners who do not finish strong. She cuts back and takes a steep drop in class today for Gold, who wins at 11% in claiming races, and 16% at a profit with Sanchez riding.

7-Lil Bubbly seems on the edges in here, but has an outside shot to steal this if she breaks well from the outside. She has some of the best early speed on paper, and might be able to carry it on the stretch out if she gets the lead. She might be set for her best in the third try.

Wet track picks-6,1,5,4

race 7

4-Sweet Hitch Hiker has improved in every start, and should be a factor in this if she moves up once more today. She faces a class test today as one of the few not coming out of the Honey Rider. But, that race did not come back strong, so the door seems open for a new shooter. She closed very impressively in the last effort, but has shown the ability to be there on the wire after running on or off the lead early. Kurtinecz wins 11% in stakes and with Jaramillo.

2-Itsmyluckycharm is the obvious choice off 5 wins in a row prior to the disappointing try in the Honey Rider. The slow ‘good’ turf might not have been to her liking that day, and she could bounce right back on firm footing. Plesa wins at 36% in stakes races, and has 3 wins in only 9 rides for Jimenez. She has the best speed in a rather paceless lineup, so a good trip seems likely.

6-Bello Porte also has the speed to get a good trip today, even though she did not show it in the Honey Rider. However, she did make a decent closing run that day, and seems to be able to adapt to any pace scenario. Her best seems enough to factor, and she is young enough to bring an improved effort. Barboza wins 14% in stakes, and 21% with Zayas in the irons.

7-Devious Charm also disappointed in the Honey Rider after hitting a good number in the race prior. She has the speed to get in a good spot early, and she will likely need to use it as she does not show much late kick. Casse wins 15% in stakes, and has only 1 win in 8 rides for Vasquez.

Off the turf picks-3,4,2,7

race 8

3-Magalie has big back numbers, good early speed and back class that make her look strong against these today. She also goes first off the claim for Zerpa, who wins 46% at a profit off the claim, and 40% with Zayas piloting. She got cooked in a race with a next out winner on top in the last try, and this race does not figure to go that fast early. Adding the blinks seems to make the intentions clear, and only Flashing Diamond stands between her and an easy lead.

8-Flashing Diamond has the speed to steal this if things go well, though the top choice figures to challenge her early. She has a right to move forward off the first try off the layoff. She has back class and numbers that stack up well against these. Gracias wins 12% in claimers, and has 3 wins in 8 tries with Rendon riding.

1-Denver has a good late kick, and may get the pace battle she would like to see up front today. She was well behind a runaway winner last time, and that winner won the next race, too. She has numbers and class that fit well here, but seldom gets her picture taken, so she probably makes better sense for the bottom of exotic best than for the top.

7-Fergilicious seems to be on the edges against this group, and will likely need her very best to play a part today. Zerpa brings her back on just 6 days rest after a disappointing effort as the favorite for half the price last time out. Zerpa gets 37% winners with claimers, but has no rides showing for Maragh. It seems like a tall order to factor today, but at least the price should be better.

Wet track picks-3,7,8,6

race 9

8-Buttonhook has improved in every try, and has a clear edge in early speed in this lineup. It is very unlikely he will see the fractions he saw in either of the last 2 races today. He has improved in every effort, and should be strong with any further improvement. Levy puts up a go to rider in Alvarado, and they pair to win at 14%.

1-Sky D clearly prefers the turf and hit 2 nice figures in the last 2 efforts on the grass. He was right behind a next out winner in the last run, and the way he was moving too early in both the last 2 races makes the small cut back in distance look like a smart move. Barboza gets 19% winners in maiden claiming races, but only 9% with Batista holding the reins.

6-Fantasizing has 2 board finishes in 2 tries on the turf, and they both have a strong figure attached to them. Gracida takes over off the claim and gets 18% wins first time off the claim. Rendon has 3 wins in only 8 tries for Gracida. The slowest of 26 works is mildly concerning.

10-Zaya could be ranked much higher without the terrible draw. He missed only a head in both his turf tries, but figures to be hung wide early or have a lot to do late leaving from the 10 hole at this layout. Ritvo gets 17% at a profit in maiden claiming races, but only shows 1 mount without a win for Sanchez.

Off the turf picks-10,5,6,8

 

We had 4 of the first 5 winners yesterday before the rains came. They are on the turf for now, so here is Saturday and then I will lay off for a while. Good luck if you are playing along. (note:"wet track" means sloppy to me, not good)

r1

6-Travy Boy has an edge in early speed that could translate into an easy lead today. When he was able to relax a bit last time, he came home much quicker, but could not seal the deal running for 10k. He did finish in front of a next out winner that day, and ran a number that could easily win this. He could be set for his best in the third try off the layoff, so he might move forward once more.


4-Downrange could come back running in the first try for Crichton, who hits at 28% with new runners, and has 4 wins in 9 tries off the layoff. The numbers he ran in his better efforts fit well, and he could improve on them in his first try at 4. He’s never been this short, but he did win twice at 7f. His better efforts have come when he was close to the lead early, and he does have the speed to get first run on the top choice if all systems are go.


3-Doc Kane has been a popular item at the claim box for twice the price, and drops down to a very comfortable level today. He has back class and back numbers that would likely win this if he can run back to them. Delgado wins at a 31% clip in claiming events, returning a profit for backers, and has 4 wins in only 7 rides for Jaramillo. Hopefully the class drop will wake him up.


5-Amazon Cry has shown some late kick going shorter, and that can translate into a piece of the action late when some others have given up chasing Travy Boy. He’s done most of his running on the turf, but he did handle the dirt 2 back.


Wet track picks-6,3,4,7


r2

8-Cocktail Skirt will need to work out a trip from this outside draw, and does not have much pace to chase on paper. The smaller field could give her smoother sailing, and she has the best figures of the bunch. She has been in the exacta all 4 times at this distance, and seems to find a pretty soft spot to try to break through this condition. No stats are available for this trainer, but this runner has fired for many different trainers off a series of claims.


5-Dixie Princess is the other one you need on your multi-race tickets. She has numbers that fit well against the top choice, and could get a better trip with the speed to find a good spot early. She was right behind the top choice 4 back, and seems to be going in the right direction since De La Cerda took over. Not much seems to separate these top 2, and the trip could determine the winner.


2-It’s too early to say Azarch can’t handle the grass off that one poor try. She won easily against lesser last time. Rosepath, who was behind her in third, came back to win and then finish a strong second behind a heavy favorite on Wednesday. She has the speed to lead or be close in a race with little pace on paper. Catanese wins 15% at a profit for believers when switching to grass, and 14% with Zayas piloting.


4-Thanks Mom looks to be a notch below the top 2 choices, but she does have enough late punch to grab a part of the tri or super, at least. Eppler wins 22% with claimers, but does not show a start for Lugo. Her very best effort could contend here, but she has finished behind 4 different runners in this field in the last 4 races, so she figures much netter for the bottom of the exotics.


Off the turf picks-2,8,5,4



r3

1-Be a Hero projects to be stalking Pachanga Party and should get first run on that leader, who has been quitting every time lately. There is plenty of speed signed on today, but this is one who has shown he can pass horses late when things go right, and he may only have 1 to pass if things go right today. He has big back numbers showing, and figures strong if he brings his best. He gets in 10 pounds light today with the bug rider.


2-Red Hot Randy has big back numbers and back class that make him look like a good fit in this contest. He has come from the back of the back a few times in the past, and that is probably a winning strategy today if he can do it this time.


3-Pachanga Party will give backers at least a brief thrill. He should lead for a half mile or so, but looks shaky to hold on for the win. He did manage to be in the superfecta combination in 3 of the last 5 races, though, so putting him in your exotics for third or fourth makes sense.


6-Express Jet makes little sense on the win end at the price offered, as he has only been on the board twice in the last 2 years. But, he has the late punch to be going the right way late when so many others could be quitting. He might catch a bit of the tri or super if there is a meltdown.


Wet track picks-1,3,4,2






r4

1-With so little pace signed on in this race on paper, Mister Storm figures to be able to grab a good spot early from his rail draw. He woke up when switched to the grass 2 back, and hit the best last race speed figure while notching his first win last time. It is never an easy transition to facing winners, but it does not look like he has much to beat this time. Another Softball, who beat him 2 back, came back to win in a race run about 2 seconds quicker.


4-Codeseventyseven put in 3 sharp efforts going longer on the grass before disappointing as the favorite last time out. This is the first time going this short, but Vasquez keeps the faith, and the breeding is there for success in a turf sprint.


3-Toss has the ability to contend at this level, but without the speed to get close early, he will need to get the trip to score. There is little to chase in here, so this might not be the day he shows his best. He figures to get a part of the tri or super at least, but does not look like value playing to win at the morning line.


5-Thorpe d’Oro is a rebound candidate who should win if he can run back to his best. He had nothing to offer going longer 2 back, but he does not seem to want to go that far. Last time, he was too far back early behind a sharp winner, but he did make some ground late despite being very wide. He hit the number to take this several times in the past against better.


Off the turf picks-9,6,1,4






r5

7-Dienda nearly got the job done last time despite a poor start and a wide trip in her first effort. She made up almost 5 lengths near the wire and covered the last half furlong in about 6 seconds flat. The way she ran makes the extra half furlong today look like a plus, and Casse wins 18% second time out with maidens and 11% with Jaramillo up. A better break could be all she needs to score.


3-Ms Big Spring is a daughter of 2 year old champion Macho Uno, who has many wealthy winners on the track. The mare went for 60k at auction before winning a stakes and 319k in 17 starts. The works are solid, and Fawkes gets 14% winners first time out, and 18% with Zayas riding.


4-Little Miss Macho is a daughter of BC Classic winner Mucho Macho Man, who has many successful runners. The mare won just 1 of 13 on the track, but she did sell for as much as 160k at auction as a breeding prospect. The works look good, and Ritvo puts up a go to rider in Gonzales, who turns a profit for believers when riding for Ritvo with 25% wins.


5-Choose to Be Happy had a decent debut, and Plesa does tend to be more successful the second time out with maidens , with 19% winners. But, she was being asked all along and not getting to the top 2 in that race, and she will have to break better or close harder to get more than a small slice this time.


Wet track picks-7,5,3,4





r6

2-Rompin Reid looks like a deserving favorite in this lineup. He won in a very sharp time 2 back for this tag at this distance, and just missed going longer last time. He’s been in the money 4 times in a row now, including a couple times against better. He has figures that stack up well in here, and the best late kick of the group. He will need to get a good trip to score, though.


3-Alien Invasion seems to have a nice edge in early pace today, and that could make for a good trip. He scored in a quick time 2 back to break the N2L barrier, and came back to prove he can handle open company with another win. You won’t see many back to back winners paying over $14 to win, as the morning line suggests he could. He is young and improving, and could score at a price if he can improve a bit more. Maker gets 17% coming off a victory.


7-Big Money Machine is a bit light on class, but has figures that fit against this lineup. He has some of the best late kick in here, and should be able to grab a late part if the trip is kind. Crichton takes over off the claim, and gets 24% winners in claiming events. He has only 1 mount without a win showing for Sanchez.


5-Modern Tale seems light on value for the win, with only 1 win showing in the last 2 years. He has not been in shouting distance early in most of the races that show, and does not have the late kick to get up from far back at this difficult layout. He could grind out a tri or super finish, and makes sense to use in those spots, but looks like one to try to beat on top.


Off the turf picks-9,2,5,3




r7

1-Starship Taxi has an edge in early speed that could easily help him to a wire to wire score in this otherwise paceless lineup. Last time out, he ran a figure that wins at this level as often as not, and he is young enough to move forward off that one. The works since that last race hint that improvement could be on the way. Vasquez stays on, and he is a go to rider for Dwoskin, with 16% wins riding for him.


6-The 47th time could be the charm for Nation U S A today. He ran a big number for this level last time despite a poor break and a wide trip. If he can run back to that effort, perhaps with a better trip, it should be enough to win. His record might put you off, and that number in the last one is not in line with the rest, so there is doubt if he can bring it again. But, it all seems worth the risk at the morning line odds to simply ask for a repeat effort to score for $18 or so. He looks like good value for any spot on any ticket.


3-My Interest gets a pass for the last race, and he is young and improving and not far off what it would take to win this. He was third behind a next out winner in the last race where the jockey hung on. Adding blinks could put him in the mix earlier, and that could make all the difference. Jaramillo sees fit to ride today.


12-Rising Storm has been improving in recent efforts, and is approaching a winning number against this group. He was right behind the second choice in the last race. He has enough speed to be close early, and that could help him get in the tri or super.



Wet track picks-1,6,3,10


r8

2-Barbie’s King lost on the draw in the last race, as it is all but impossible to get up from the 11 hole at this layout. He did make up some ground late in that run, though. Look past the sloppy track race 2 back, and you will see a near miss at this level and trip when he got a better draw. He is running par for this level in his last 3 tries on the grass, and looks like value at the morning line price without many other obvious contenders on paper.


6-Wine At the Beach also got a tough post position last time in the first try at this level, and ran a good number 2 back against better. He was improving each time before the last race, and if he can get back on that track, it could result in a contending effort against this soft lineup. The bug weight break is a plus.


3-Perfect Enough is one more who appeared to be approaching a winning effort at this level before getting a draw that was too tough to overcome last time. He was right behind a next out winner 2 back in the first try for this tag. If he can bring that effort once more, or improve, he should be a factor. Yet, he does not look any better than the top 2 choices, so the price does not look like value.


3-Arch Star is young and improving and could bring value to the bottom of tri or super bets. He could not make a dent against a very slow pace last time, but he might break better with the blinks added to today. Rodriguez stays on, and has 3 wins in only 8 tries for Andreasen.


Off the turf picks-10,2,6,3






r9

7-For the Gipper has an edge in figures over those with recent form that is hard to overlook. He has back class, and the best late punch of this group, and could be set for his best in the third try off the bench today. De La Cerda scores at 17% off the short rest and against claimers. He has only 1 start without a win for Torres, but the bug weight is a plus. He was behind 3 next out winners combined in the last 2 efforts, and seems to be in the right spot to get win number 2 today.


3-Why Trust has a fine record and looks like a good fit at this level. He has the speed to steal this if Vinnie Van Go does not fire, which is a live possibility. Zalza, who beat him in back to back efforts, is very sharp right now, and managed third against 35k starter optional claimers on Thursday after those 2 nice wins.


4-Vinnie Van Go has an all or nothing look to him today. He has back class and back numbers, but his form is in doubt. He has the speed to lead today if things are alright, and that could be good enough if he can run back to his best efforts. Zayas sees fit to take the mount.


1-Majesto was good enough to be second behind the Derby winner in the Florida Derby on this surface, and good enough to earn a spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. It seems likely he will never run back to his efforts leading up to the Derby, but he won’t have to be that sharp to beat this bunch. He’s never even tried this distance, so it looks like a warm-up at best. Still, he seems to be worth a glance for filling in tri or super bets at least, and perhaps one worth taking notes on for next time.


Wet track picks-7,6,4,1


r10

4-This runner brings class and consistency that is hard to ignore. He has been in the exacta in 10 of 12 efforts that show, and usually needs a photo to sort things out if he is not in front. There are a couple sharp works showing, and he scored with a personal best off a layoff. It doesn’t make sense to build a ticket without this number on it.


7-My Point Exactly is an interesting item in this lineup. He has the speed to lead unless Front Loaded takes to the grass. Of course, it is not likely he will get the easy lead he had the last 2 times on the turf in this stronger cast. But, he has been very sharp for Quiroz since the barn change, and came home the last 2 and a half furlongs in just 29 seconds flat last time. Batista rides once more.


1-Second Mate figures on the figures, and Maker probably claimed him with this spot in mind. He just missed against a very sharp winner 2 back with a number that stacks up well against these. He is likely to get shuffled a bit early from this draw, but has the late gusto to make a dent on the board. Maker wins 10% in stakes, and shows a win in just 3 rides for Vasquez.


6-Maker also sends out Swagger Jagger, who has been on the board in half of 22 efforts on the green, and most of them were stakes races. He did get the better of the top choice once last year, but finished tris and supers in several other efforts against him, and figures to do the same this time if the trip is kind.


Off the turf picks-9,7,8,10




r11

7-Barboza brings 2 runners to this contest, and this looks like the better win prospect of the 2. He just claimed him, and hits at 31% off the claim, and 32%with go to rider Jaramillo on board. This runner has only been on a fast track twice, and has a win and a second place finish in those recent efforts. He can grind out a win if the trip is in his favor.


4-If Dreamy Martini does not fire, which seems realistic, and this one does, he could get a lonely lead today. Those are 2 big ifs, but this veteran clearly shows the best dirt speed if he is ready to go today. He has back class and back numbers that figure strong if he can run back to them. He ran a number 2 back that fits well in this class, but had to chase a very fast pace in that one. The price will be much better today if you want to give him a shot.


8-Chirping hit the number 2 back, but could not handle the transition to open company last time after clearing the N3L condition the time before. Delgado wins 31% in claiming races, but sends out a new rider this time who shows only 1 mount for the year.


2-Moonwalker did nothing on the dirt in 3 fast track starts, but those starts were 5 years ago, among his first races, and he could be capable of better now. He is a question mark at the distance as well, but he does have the speed to stay close early if he takes to the dirt today.


Wet track picks-6,7,8,4




r12

1-Stuck With You hit the best number on the page 2 back on the turf, and it is a number that wins at this level as often as not. He was right behind a next out winner in that race, and gained several lengths nearing the wire when the last furlong and a half went in just 17 and 3. He needs only to find that race again to be a force at a possible big price in this one. Alvarado has been riding this one for a while, and is a go to rider for Orseno with 11% wins riding for him.


3-Five Start Recruit could not hold on after making a wide bid last time. His good early speed should enable him to work out a better trip this time, and that could make the difference. He wasn’t exactly flying late last time, so he had better get to the front early this time, or find another gear late if he is going to hold off the closers.


7-Live for the Day hit a couple good numbers in the 2 tries on the grass despite not hitting the board in either effort. He lost to a next out winner last time on the grass, and finished right behind another next out winner that day. This is the lowest level he’s seen today, and the class drop should earn him a small piece, at least.


9-Joseph deserves respect in his first try with this one without a claim. He gets 32% with new runners, and has 2 wins in just 4 rides for Lebron. He will need to improve off that first effort, but the drop could help, and he does not face much today.


Off the turf picks-7,9,3,6