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TurboGenius Hot or Cold ? Is it really 50/50 ? - informational

Discussion in 'TurboGenius's Forum' started by TurboGenius, Dec 28, 2020.

  1. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    But once anything cold does appear - bet on it.
    That's good advice too.

    Why not start a thread in the "roulette" section about how great whatever or whoever dyksexlic is and have the debate there.
    This thread isn't about whatever that is.... since you seem to be such a fan you should surely have a productive thread about it/them.
    Cheers.
     
    Nathan Detroit likes this.
  2. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Show your work. I did.

    Here is a easy one - 37 players all play $1.00 on their own number for 1,000 spins.
    What is the end balance they have as a group ?
    That one's too easy isn't it, oh well.

    They will be down $1,000 as a group, meaning each player is down $27.02 after a THOUSAND spins. The payout for a win is $35.00 meaning even after 1,000 spins each player on average is 1 spin/win away from profit. This is simple math that a first grader should know. Do you ?
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2020
  3. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    Turbo,

    You're missing the obvious. There are too many numbers on the wheel when you look at the house payoff.

    bd0e0542-ef1b-4bc1-a2c5-b4cba184cf06.jpg

    Furthermore, you have no way of knowing in advance whether a number will remain hot and come out ahead or grow cold and turn into a losing goat. To suggest that you can pick all 15 or 16 of the winning numbers is absolutely absurd.

    Go ahead, tell us another fairy tail.
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2020
  4. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I guess I'll have to move most of these posts to another thread - because yet again you
    aren't disproving what I posted, but instead throwing in things I didn't say and have nothing to do with the topic.

    Nowhere did I say anything about trying to "know in advance" -

    I said.....

    After 1,000 spins - playing a single number flat bet - you have a 50/50 chance of ending a winner.
    The data proves this, math proves this - no one said anything about picking "all" 15 or 16 winning numbers....
    I said 1 number for 1,000 spins gives you a 50/50 chance of winning.... and it does.

    This is "the obvious"
    Am I wrong ? Grab a calculator and check, complain that I'm wrong.
     
  5. Median Joe

    Median Joe New Member

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    Turbo, that's playing just one number though. If you play 2 numbers your chance drops to about 25%. So it would seem that the more numbers you play, the higher your chance of losing, which is a rather counter-intuitive result.
     
  6. Benas

    Benas Active Member

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    Nothing you show...all what you demonstrated is simply mistakes in understanding elementary math..
    You, again and again, demonstrate a lack of understanding in math...
    After 1000 spins playing a single number flat bet and to be in plus you need to win minimum 28 times. The probability of such is 0.451.
    If you will repeat that experiment 1000 times you will end 451 times in plus. But that is nothing , because mostly you will be in plus only a few units and when will end in minus in average minus will be much higher, than plus and totally you with every such attempt will go deeper and deeper into minus.
    So about what is talking?? About how more and more lost? :)

    If you have lovers to lost you can look against them as Genius , but to me, you look like as a man which not know math...
     
  7. Benas

    Benas Active Member

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    28 wins enough to be 1 unit in plus in 1035 spins and the chance to win minimal 28 times in 1035 spins are 0.524 - so even more than 50/50, but that nothing change ! In these 524 variants from 1000 your total plus will be smaller than minus in rest 476 variants...:)
     

  8. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Wow, so confusing how you guys operate - you say I'm wrong and then both of you back up completely what I said.

    But you just proved me to be completely right, so....... thanks ?

    It's nothing ? But doesn't it mean that ending a winner or ending a loser after 1,000 spins is 50/50 ? Sure it does.
    Isn't that what I said and what the thread is about ? Sure it is. so...... thanks ?

    So being in the plus $1.00 after 1,000 spins doesn't make one a "winner" ? Strange, with the house edge and all
    I would have thought no one had a chance to come out ahead lol. So being ahead, even if it's $1.00 means you didn't win ?
    If I have problems with math as you say - you might have problems with reality. Being ahead, even 1 unit after 1,000 spins
    flat betting does a winner make.

    YES ! The average that the losers lost is greater than the profits that the winners made....... that has nothing to do with
    what I said - I said that after 1,000 spins - your chances of leaving a winner or a loser is 50/50 - which it is... which you
    agree on.....so..... thanks ?

    Thanks for proving that neither of us know math then, since you agree with my calculations,

    Even better than 50/50 ????? That's amazing. I thought that I was a little low in my estimates. So a 52% chance of leaving a winner after 1,000 spins means NOTHING !!! lol. I thought we were trying to win and have the best chance to do so... but I guess not.
    There must be some magical amount that you have to leave with in order to be a winner. I thought being in profit meant winning,
    but now I guess it doesn't - you have to be in profit X amount to win.... strange how I was wrong all my life.

    I'll copy/paste since it's the same thing you already said and was wrong about -
    ""YES ! The average that the losers lost is greater than the profits that the winners made....... that has nothing to do with
    what I said - I said that after 1,000 spins - your chances of leaving a winner or a loser is 50/50 - which is it... which you
    agree on.....so..... thanks ?""

    In closing this nonsense - thank you for showing my math was correct, and agreeing that it's 50/50 after 1,000 spins
    playing the same number flat betting that you will leave a winner.
    So much nonsense to just simply agree. I'm baffled.
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2020
    Bitrock06 likes this.
  9. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I ran 100,000 spins last night at 5 players won flat betting on their own single number.......

    So if I said that if you played 100,000 spins your chances of leaving a winner would be 13.5% I would be wrong ??
    Would you argue that as well ? lol. Probably.
    I would have thought that 100,000 spins (a lifetime of spins) and ending it in profit just flat betting would be almost
    impossible - but 13-14 out of 100 people could easily do this... but I guess they aren't winners either.....
     
  10. Benas

    Benas Active Member

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    To execute some math is simple- that can even boys in first classes, but to understand that results which you got - not gave you benefit is slight harder and here is white spot in your thinking...
    If will be 1000 persons which will play 1 number 1000 spins after that 451 will be in some plus and 549 will be in minus, but that means - nothing!

    Something means only knowing in the first spin where you will be after 1000 spins. If you could that know - you will do something other, than waste time here... :)
     
  11. Benas

    Benas Active Member

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    Of course, you will be wrong because to be in plus after100 000 spins you need the win as a minimum of 2703 spins, and the probability of such even is 0.495
     
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2021
  12. Benas

    Benas Active Member

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    Bernoulli formula in probabilities will answer all your questions - learn how to calculate probabilities and all to you will be clear... :)
     
  13. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Nope, not wrong... but I appreciate that my math skills are good enough to figure this out.

    100,000 spins were run off and only 5 players ended in profit flat betting for ALL those spins.
    5 players of 37 possible players is 13.51%, therefore if you try 100 times, you will walk out a winner
    13 1/2 times, and walk out a loser 86.5 times. But still, after a lifetime of spins (100k) - even then you
    have a 13.5% chance of ending it all a winner, despite that scary house edge.

    So for 1000 spins, you have a 50/50 chance of walking out a winner using no system whatsoever and just playing
    your own assigned number... that's pretty good.
    And for 100,000 spins you have a 13.5% chance of walking out a winner using no system whatsoever.. that's not too bad either.

    So staying on a single number forever without using any kind of a method/system to choose what you play is a bad idea
    over a lifetime of spins with no progression.
     
  14. Benas

    Benas Active Member

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    Sorry I made mistake I put to formula 36 instead 35... and because of that got wrong answer just will do correct
     

  15. Benas

    Benas Active Member

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    Right answer is such to be in plus after 100 000 spins we need win in 2778 spins and probability of such amount or higher is
    0,07281 so slight more than 7%
     
  16. Benas

    Benas Active Member

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    to end in plus after 1000 spins we need 28 wins minimal and chance of that is 0,45115, so slight more than 45%
    And here all is for european wheel for wheel with two zeros that will be significiant smaller chances...
     
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2021
  17. Benas

    Benas Active Member

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    On two zeros wheel chance to be in plus after 1000 spins is about 0,39614 so slight more than 39%
     
  18. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Active Member

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    So Turbo, if we found the balance point

    Why don't we now - make a u-turn no you turn! - go in other direction?
    Give data for 900
    800
    ...
    100
     
  19. Benas

    Benas Active Member

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    Sure - let's give that data! :)
     
  20. Median Joe

    Median Joe New Member

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    We can reason as follows : since in a small number of spins - say 37 - less than half the numbers will show a profit at the end, and for a large number of spins none of the numbers will show a profit, there must be a sweet spot somewhere in between; ie a number of spins which maximizes the number of numbers which make a profit.
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2021

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