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Baccarat How I made Martingale worked for me......

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Craps, Apr 1, 2021.

  1. Craps

    Craps Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2018
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    Location:
    Las Vegas
    Casinos are not built just yesterday. It has gone through changes from time to time. From the formal atmosphere in the European casinos to the casual American casinos. And something in between which is the Asian and Australian casinos. The study of basic Human behavior in a casino is one of the subject taught at the University of Nevada Las Vegas (UNLV) Casino Management Program. Michael Shakleford aka Wizard of Odds who has a degree in Acturial Science is a guest lecturer there. From setup to marketing to psychology. People have LESS regard for $$$ in a casino especially when cash is turn into casino chips. The low House Edge in a game of chance like Craps & Baccarat do permit customers to win big all the time.
    Imagine this. If the casino CAN force the customers to have no choice of bet selection or no choice of bet amount, would people still gamble? As a gambler, we have to fully utilize all the options given to us. Most people call it the Gamblers Edge.
    Where to play
    What to play
    When to play
    When to stop
    How much to bet

    Let's look at the game of Craps. In this game it's all about Odds and Probability. Many people don't understand this 2 things and that's why the game looks very complicated to them. There are 36 combinations of the dice and the combo that makes the players lose is 7 (16.25,34,61.52.43). How is it people is OK to use MORE $$$ to win LESS $$$ when playing Craps using probability by betting a couple of numbers across the table to win one at a time BUT is not OK to use Martingale to win a unit at a time in Baccarat? Interesting question isn't it.

    One particular Craps player explained it accurately. When you invest a particular Bankroll it does not matter how you play it BECAUSE every which way you play, it an go either way. You want to win more, your chances of getting it is less and Vice Versa. However, if you bet items with DIFFERENT ODDS, then there is a difference because in the long run, the better ODDS bet will definitely be better than the less ODDS bet. For as long as the Odds don't changed, betting more to win less is the same as betting less to win more.

    I urged every Baccarat player to play or observe Casino Craps so that you are MORE familiar and also MORE acceptance to ODDS and PROBABILITY.

    More......
     
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2021
  2. Craps

    Craps Active Member

    Joined:
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    Location:
    Las Vegas
    Sorry if you are a pure Math guy. In Baccarat I have ONLY one opponent and that is myself. If I make all the decisions I need a criteria of some sort to feel I am in command of my own destiny and this is where Fallacies come in. When you Flat Bet, you make a selection of only 2 choices B or P. You can have all sorts of ways to get that B or P but the bet itself don't enjoy added probability. It stays at 50/50 with House Edge. You can argue about things you see prior to the selection but the reality is those are all fallacies.
    To come to a 5 step Marty brings back a lot of disappointing memories. I need the probability and the Bankroll at risk to be ultimate. I like 6 Marty the most but the last bet is the whole bankroll of a 5 Marty. Although Odds is the same but psychologically it affects me. It made me deviate and lose patience trying to recoup that 63 units bankroll. I like 4 Marty but it makes me too cautious and too tight with WHEN to play. Occasionally I backed out even though it's time to bet. So, I settled with 5 Marty. I do use 6 Marty very sparingly but it has to be 2x 3 Marty meaning I have to lose two times 3 Marty at 2 different places.
    When using a 5 step Marty I must include a Trigger which is the entry point OR when to bet. I may include what I called a Qualifier meaning another decision of how much virtual win before real play. If I decided on 3rd unit, it means my trigger and bet selection got to win 2 times before I play for real. That Qualifier is decided by an APP in my android phone call RANDOM UX. Very seldomly, I might include yet another final decision called FILTER which tells me whether I should completely reverse all my bet selections or not. You can see for me to lose, it has to be a PERFECT STORM in my own terms. Fallacies to the Max.
    How I came to the 5 bet selection is based on all the previous records that I kept. It is centered on imbalances that is greater than a certain level like BBBBB occurs twice within 32 blocks of 5 and if it happens within 16 blocks on my gambling day, I will bet against it. This is just one example. I thing I am pretty sure is when using 5 Marty, the aim is 31 units. Your thought will centered on how to get to 31 units. 31 units win is a win and nothing less than that is ever considered a win. After 31 units its harvesting time and I tend to play a bit loose. I can't help it because I am only Human. I prefered to stay that way and not ask TOO much from myself to do something with goes against emotions.

    Next on more detailed execution of my 5 Marty.
     
    Joey Torres likes this.
  3. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    Location:
    Las Vegas
    I only aim for 8 units a day. I had an assortment of 5 Marty plays. I tried to get more ideas from a post in this forum but nobody is interested in participating because each is only interested in stressing their own views or agenda.
    One of my plays is based on a 6 card trigger. I like it because 6 cards comes at a pace which can be very comfortable for every player. To me, drawing to win on a 3rd card signify strength. If the opposite happens 3 times in a row then it's time for me to see when the strong side repeat a win and I will use 5 Marty on the next 6 cards trigger to repeat a win for the strong side. For me to lose, the next 6 card winner has to lose 5 times in a row.
    When you use Marty, you got to think like a Marty player that the whole thing is a package to get ahead and not fall behind. If you fell behind, you chase until you are ahead or lose your bankroll. You are avoiding the losing streak that breaks you and that's why you have to predetermined your bet selection and NOT subject to ONLY bet desperately after losses like a See-How- It -Goes player.
    Another approach I used is to manufacture added real probability to my bet selection by pre deciding the entry point and have the trigger come then only bet. This way, I can make a 5 Marty enjoy the probability of a 7 Marty. Bear in mind you can't have too many tries with this because too many tries actually lowers the probability. It's like a Royal Flush in poker is 52x51x50x49x48 divided by 1x2x3x4x5 which is 1 in 2,598,960, Wait a minute! THERE ARE 4 SUITS therefore divided by 4 will make it 1 in 649,740. So in other words when you took too many tries with manufactured probability, the chances of losing increases not because of MATH but because of LOA.

    Next the conclusion.
     
    Joey Torres likes this.
  4. Craps

    Craps Active Member

    Joined:
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    Location:
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    I have mentioned Odds which is the same with all methods . But with a Martingale because it is winning fractional units one at a time we can do a premature Stop Win. Another option you can't do with Flat Betting. Your probability allows you to win 100% of your $$$ at risk but with Marty you win 0.03% of the $$$ at risk. The task becomes very easy and the option to lock up a small win of few fractional units is like fooling LOA . You are suppose to lose once after 31 wins but now you are stopping after 8 wins. The loss happens with the records which I did not play and THIS IS THE DIFFERENCE MAKER. I win all my 8 units Hit & Run style and continue to chart them individually until it is time to use them again. If a bust occurs below 16 units, then LOA is in your favour. It's how wide you want the imbalance to be before you play again with same approach.
    Bet PPPPP nonstop with 5 Marty. If no BBBBB you win like 30+ units in a shoe. Soon BBBBB happens 2x and you are almost even again. So tell me whether Hit & Run is significant or not if you are SELECTIVE in your approach.
    It's easy to criticize somebody who bet against BBBB using PPPPP. 9 bankers will bust your 5 Marty but people don't want to talk about the number of times he wins when Banker occurs 4 to 8 in a row before that 9 Bankers. If only this person chart and Hit & Run which means to be selective and NOT bet against EVERY 4 Banks. He can based his entry point with LOA meaning if 9 Banks occurs 2x times with very little 4-8 Banks in between. Good Luck.
     
    Joey Torres and Rinad like this.
  5. Rinad

    Rinad Member

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    Location:
    colorado
    great post and thanks for sharing. this 2 times 3 bets is exactly what I do when playing a 6 steps Marty, and that small action of braking a 6 steps is making all the difference in the world in my opinion. there is not much more I can add to this topic exept that spending time to find other ways to pick, or the creation of new triggers is always productive. I have use the "all cards being the same suit" trigger a few times but it can take too long at times to see it happend. maybe 3 would be more appropriate. also picking a set number of spins, or plays could be another way. one thing I have been aware of when getting a few losses before getting a hit, is to either take a brake from the game or begin after 2 virtual losses. it always seem that losses in a row keep coming back in short periods . even losing the Marty can re-occur very soon after that first one.
    and so why not create distance between losses ? just my 2 cents.
    Cheers,
    R.
     
  6. Lungyeh

    Lungyeh Well-Known Member

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    Nice Craps. I will try it out once the casino opens. Thanks for the effort in sharing with an unappreciative crowd.

    Anyway, may I know if your approach has been profitable to you personally? Short term, long term or are you still fine tuning?

    Kind regards
     
  7. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    Yes, it has been profitable. My average win days to a bust is 1 in 5 1/2 days. 31 unit loss to 44 units win. It's been 15 years but I did not play for a year because of the pandemic. I am constantly coming out with new ways to play my 5 Marty. There is infinite ways to play a 5 Marty and I learned NOT to fell in love with any of them.
    It's funny how when a new system is developed, it always works until it don't. So for me it is always something new and a few wins and done.

    I had been through your philosophy of controlling your money and I failed. In theory it's all good and simple but in practical because the wins and losses comes in all shapes and ways and sizes that things have to happen according to your decisions and that makes a lot of uncertainty.

    Basically, your way is VERY DEPENDANT on WIAR or LIAR. All you did was moving your win/loss in such a way that you won't get hurt IMMEDIATELY but can still get hurt in a stretch-out way. Your actions hinged heavily on COMEBACKS and personally I think that's not business like. You mentioned Baccarat as Small Business.

    To me, Business means you have a steady flow of profits INTERRUPTED by expenses, costs and payroll. My way fits in better.
    Profits = the daily 8 units win
    Expenses, Costs and Payroll = the busts

    Profits comes in everyday but expenses like rent and utilities is once a month. Cost of products are usually invoice by invoice. Therefore in a business, SOME DAYS requires you to pay out more than to receive in. With this mindset and reason, DO YOU STILL THINK A 31 UNIT BUST is UNACCEPTABLE?
     

  8. Lungyeh

    Lungyeh Well-Known Member

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    Location:
    Malaysia
    There are many businesses in the world. Somebody may have failed in a restaurant business but that does not mean the restaurant business cannot be a success.

    Similarly while I would be loathe to the negative 5 Marty approach, it does not mean it cannot be a success. You are living testimony to its potential.

    And it definitely does not mean ‘My way or the highway’. I have too much respect for the members of this forum.

    Peace to all people of goodwill.
     
  9. Rinad

    Rinad Member

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    Location:
    colorado
    something about the Marty that holds people back is more because of "trauma" then just losing 31 units. the Marty kills the frog quite fast as opose to slowly losses occuring in a shoe. but the frog still gets boiled to death slowly at the end. so it is the killer blow that players hate mostly and not the 31 unit loss.
    you can actually improve a game by being more agressive then the 1,2,4,8,16. about the 1,3,7,26,57 ???
    sounds loonie at first but lets see.
    as a example a 1,3,7 marty cost 11 units .
    a 1,2,4 cost 7. it cost you 7 to make 1. the other 11 to earn about 2 units per win. (around that)
    here is the difference. a 1,2 4 can take you much longer to recoup depending on where the wins happen, but still, the 1,3,7 wont take you longer then 11 hands. so 3 in a row should happen once every 8 hands on both type of Marty but the recoup is what makes a difference. if I only look at the amount of the loss I am not being objective but strickly emotional, and the game does not care about that.
    if I look at the risk and reward of both progressions I may be learning something.
    one cost 7 units, the other 11. what if I win on the third bet of the 1,2,4 progr. ? how long would it take me to recoup 7 units ?
    up to 20 hands !
    I could earn another 10 units in that extra 10 hands doing the 1,3,7 , earning one unit every hand.
    I do anderstand how a more agressive progression can turn off players, more I have to confess that the speed in which we can recoup losing a progression counts for something. also a 1,3,7 backed up by a 5,15,35 can also be powerful when combined, one after the other.
    I dont want to do nothing but just add to this thread, no finger pointing here.
    I have read all your posts Crap so I am learning every day, just wanted to share this.
    Regards,
    Rinad
     

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