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Craps How much damage do the fiction writers do?

Discussion in 'Craps Forum' started by superrick, Mar 1, 2015.

  1. Pressit

    Pressit Member

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    Mark V

    Both boards provide all sorts and forms of information. I have been on both SR's and Heavy's boards, bother current ones and predecessors. On SR's board alone there are approximately 54 topic areas, and Heavy has 6 major areas each housing numerous sub chapters. This board we are on now is very similart to the others boards, but expands into other areas of gambling, so I hope there are some nuggets of information to be gleamed, as I don't believe their soul purpose is to be used as a dumping ground for gambling systems. Even this ongoing discussion over on-axis vs off-axis theory I find informative, even though I am a confirmed off-axis dye in the wool believer, and have been since 2007/2008. Before that it was PARR.

    If craps is a negative expectations game, how then do you prove a positive. You do so by believing in what you are doing is true, and you will never know what is true and what will work for you until you learn what is out there, and that in part is why there are these forums. Knowledge. I have saved many a email going back to my PARR days, and it serves as a true testament how some individual's thinking have evolved over time. All these terms, chicken feeder, dice controller, dice influencer, random roller, rhythm roller, on/off axis, they are all meaningless, All That should matters is at the end of the day did you walk away with more money than you came in with. And if that means you are good at doing a fade away jumpers from mid casino floor, with the casino's blessing of course, than that is all that should concern you because you are leaving a winner. To me it just doesn't get any simpler that that.
     
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  2. Tabletop

    Tabletop Member Lineage to Founders

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    Heh, Guys we all know that MP is a Fictional DI, but I'd have no problem trying a $204 Across for two hits & Down. I'd treat the bet the EXACT same way as I would the $320 Across in my aforementioned Post. However, I'd NEVER, EVER play it on other DI's. In my opinion a Table full of DI's normally turns out to be a COMPLETE Blood-Letting. MP's advice is the absolute Worst advice that you could give ANYONE. Dice Influencer, or Not. Why in the Shit would anyone CONTINUOUSLY bet that Bankroll Depleting Bet FOR THE DURATON of a Session? Three or Four Early PSO's, or PPSO's & your feverishly digging yourself out of an Early Burial.
     
    Harley likes this.
  3. Tabletop

    Tabletop Member Lineage to Founders

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    +1 Pressit. Very Well Stated!
     
  4. Mark V

    Mark V Active Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2015
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    Occupation:
    Gambler, bikini contest judge, and lounge rat
    Location:
    Las Vegas
    Tabletop,

    In my humble opinion, I think how you play (and what you play) all depends on your goals.

    There are certain bets you can make on certain table games where you can have a 64 to 88% chance of winning. Many Pro gamblers go to these bets for the income they need to pay the bills. These are not exciting thrilling sexy bets, and you get very little comps when the house recognizes what you are doing.

    Other than the Pro there are a two other types of gamblers I see.

    The Party people and vacationers are probably 90% of who shows up at the tables. They are there for fun, the excitement and the thrills of the game. They expect to lose, but not much, and will play till they have had their fill of craps. This type is just having fun, hoping to lose a little to get great comps that they see worth the value of what they lost.

    Then there is the serious recreational gambler. This breed is going for the points to advance in the players club tiers, and to get free rooms and perks. These folks build a life around casino promotions and what perks they can get. Most such players are not locals, but spend enough time in the Casinos to be well known as a serious gambler. Craps is not a game that such people will play because the points generated for craps play is often tiny, compared to the points they can get playing other games. Such players tend to dominate the Video Poker and slots world, where Craps is just a break from the grind of the machines. Such folks however will have the highest tier level of card, get all the perks the casino will offer and gets amazing free play offers.

    Of course slots generate the most points. The best way to play them is Max play so that all of the bonus features are activated. Play the machines at the nickle or higher per line, avoid the penny slots.

    Video Poker is second on the point generation list, playing 9/6 JOB or 8/5 BP with optimal strategy is a point generator and potential money maker too. I posted a topic on how to play ultimate-X and score big on points and free play.

    Table games generate the least amount of points, so will require a much larger buy-in or much longer play sessions to see the same level of points you see at lower coin-in for the machine games.


    A strategy of Play I have seen is this:

    A player goes to one of the table games where he can get the 64 or 88% bets. Buys in for 5,000 and wins $1000 in an hour. They take that $1000 and run it though a Video Poker machine (preferable with point multiplier promotion at $1 a hand) The points they rack up is enough to get a free room and meals, plus a bit of bankroll growth. If you hit a Royal Flush or a jackpot if you played slots, like Pink Diamond Slot machine , then you probably have some good bankroll growth that can up your play level or save it for when hit a losing slump.


    Now for some brutal truth:

    Most Craps players are addicted to the game, it is fast, exciting and a rush when you are winning. Same players are also perpetually broke too, and tend to play with this idea that they will press up the bets to high levels and recover years of losses. The fantasy of Dice Control easily captivates them, for to be able to have grand hands nearly every time you toss the dice would go far to recover those losses suffered year after year. And, that is basically about who I see raving and making claims about Dice Control, is the gambling addict who is looking for any angle to win with.

    The Pro gamblers I know only look at probabilities (the math), streaks and trends. They do not place faith in any system or claims of Dice Powers! Just like in the Stock Market, if your strategy is hope and luck - you won't go far.
     
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  5. Tabletop

    Tabletop Member Lineage to Founders

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    Mark V..... Excellent Post!! I was one of those Dreamers when I was first to dice Influencing. Thought I would have the world by the Tail UNTIL the Reality set in. What's the Reality, You say? That Dice Influencing is only a "Pubic Hair" better than being a Random Roller. No matter how talented that you THINK you are...... The Math Prevails. Tables do trend, & those High Edge Bets aren't Horrible Bets when the Table is Trending, but Overall..... Their Losers. Plain & Simple. The Low House edge Bets are the only Bets that give you a "Fair" chance of winning consistently. That's if you don't leave your bets up Too long, & you know how to walk away from a Table. In my experience I've come to find that MOST times during a Session, you're in profit Mode. That may be the Best time to walk. Personally, I TRY to find empty or sparsely populated Tables, & "Cover the Nut" in 30 minutes or Less. NEVER more than one Hour. You see.... I realize that I NEVER have an edge with Dice Influencing, so I want to exit as Quickly as possible. Dice influencing is one of the Biggest Scams perpetuated on the General Public. I've been a DI for over 6 yrs & Every week my opinion changes. This week... I believe in it. Next week.... It's a Hoax! Never any certainties. The problem with Dice Influencing is that the Visual flight of the Dice(Mid-air) is VERY deceiving. It looks absolutely Breath taking UNTIL the Dice hit the Surface. Then, & Only then does Reality set in. You, My friend , have just been "Hood Winked". All that glitters isn't Gold. I'm not as radical as "Wong", & I won't Totally Recant Dice influencing, but You still must Bet your money as if you've never Tossed a pair of dice in your whole entire Life. The more that I play the game, the more I realize that placing Just One Stinking Bet, may be the way to Go. Is it Boring? Yes! However, Preservation of bankroll is more important than "Quenching" the Action Player's Thirst!!
     
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  6. Mark V

    Mark V Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    Occupation:
    Gambler, bikini contest judge, and lounge rat
    Location:
    Las Vegas
    Hardcore Craps is all about the math and the odds.

    My plan is to bet $60 on the Six and Eight and then take both bets down after a win.

    Each roll there is a: 27.8% that I will win, there is a 55.5% chance of nothing will happen, and a 16.7% I lose.

    As each roll continues, the odds of the seven appearing increases (see this chart http://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/number-of-rolls/ ), and you can see by the 5th roll the shooter has a 57% of not rolling a seven. In all honesty If I have not won my Six or Eight bet after the 5th roll, I be bringing all my bets down. The odds of the seven appearing is 1 in six rolls, the odds of the Six and Eight appearing is 1 in 7 rolls.

    When to bet the Six and Eight? Typically I bet them if they have not been hit for 4 rolls. The Decree of Certainty DC, that the Six or Eight will be hit is computed like this:

    The degree of certainty DC rises exponentially with the increase in the number of trials N while the probability p is always the same or constant. (ref: http://saliu .com/formula.htm)
    DC = 1 – (1 – p) ^ N

    Rolls Prob DC
    1 0.28 0. 28
    2 0.28 0.4816
    3 0.28 0.626752
    4 0.28 0.73126144
    5 0.28 0.806508237
    6 0.28 0.86068593

    As you can see, by the 4th roll there is a 73% chance the six or eight will get hit.

    Here is a betting scene

    Shooter A rolls a 5,3,7x
    Shooter B rolls a 9-the point (Now it has been 4 rolls since we seen the 6 or 8 so we make a bet), 8,...
    And when we win, we take them all down and wait for the seven to appear before we go back in.

    The same idea can be expanded to the other number too. Bet the 5/9 if it has not been hit in 5 rolls and the 4/10 in 6 rolls and horns after 8 rolls of non-horns.

    Other casino table games you can compute the DC, as well such as Roulette.
     
  7. superrick

    superrick Active Member Founding Member

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    Most so-called DI's want to live in a fantasy-land, where they think that one day they will take a hundred thousand dollars or more off the tables. That's because they have read the great fiction that is out there, when you show them what their dice really do they get belligerent and go on the attack when their fantasy bubble gets busted.

    If your around the so-called DI's and our so-called experts the one thing that you find out is that what you are reading most of the time from them didn't really happen. Case in point when the last class was in town I saw one of the guys that had been getting written up in one of the so-called experts trip reports. I hadn't seen the local DI in quite some time. When I asked him about all of the great rolls he had been having, he didn't know what I was talking about.

    One of the on-axis DI instructors was using his name to boaster his image of winning when he was playing craps. I got to see him two days in a row and on the second day I asked him again about his play, because he said he was losing and was once again thinking about moving from Las Vegas. I wanted to confirm that I didn't misunderstand him the day before.

    The sad truth was that he was losing, and what someone had sent me from one of the on-axis DI boards didn't happen. His way of telling me what had been happening when he had been playing was that every once in a while he might have gotten lucky and had a decent roll but there was no way that it would make him positive overall.

    You have to be a really smart player to beat the game of craps and thinking that your shooting will make it happen is a joke! The dice bounce all over the place when they hit the table, so what you may have thought was control is out the window, it just doesn't happen.

    Now for all of you so-called DI's out there, knowing that your dice do not stay on axis should actually help you out. That's because you will change the way you are betting the game. The other thing it will do for you is stop you from spending your money on those ridiculous “After Glow Fee”! Thinking that if you go to the tables with a bunch of so-called DI's you will win, is just a disaster in the makings.

    The ones that are making the real money off DI's are the ones that are teaching on axis dice control as a hobby.
     
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  8. Harley

    Harley Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    Frank - will you disclose the real reason you had all of your former GTC Business partner Howard Rock n' Roller's record throws erased from your former GTC website ??!!

    (From another source: "During his tenure with GTC, Howard Rock n' Roller was a member of their 50, 60, 70 and 80 roll club using the PARR/GTC throwing technique. His longest recorded roll was 84 rolls before the seven-out. During a five day period with GTC, Howard threw hands lasting one 1 hour or more in the casino each day. GTC players referred to him as the "Babe Ruth" of Dice Control because of his long rolls and hitting the hard ways numerous times during his rolls.")

    ...... I do see in your new book where you do state that Howard Rock n' Roller's tosses now are more like a bunter instead of "Babe Ruth"
     
    Mark V likes this.
  9. $nakeEye$

    $nakeEye$ Active Member Founding Member

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    Occupation:
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    Harley -

    Could IT possibly BE that there was " Dissention Among the Troops " when Howard decided to leave the group -

    Similar - but different - to what occurred during the Roman Empire -

    When a certain Emperor demanded that a " CERTAIN NAME " - " BE STRICKEN " from ALL Official Documents of that era / period -


    On 1st hand information -

    The foremost reason that the " Babe Ruth " of DI lost his " EDGE " on the game was simply because of his experimentation with the " OFF-AXIS " toss techniques -

    Whereupon - HIS - expertise in the ON-AXIS technique was substantially diminished due to the MAJOR differences between the two techniques !

    Once Howard comes to the total realization that it was ON-AXIS techniques / methods that brought him to the forefront of the DI community -

    And disregards the BS techniques taught by the " Other Camps " - THEN - AND ONLY THEN - will Howard NOT ONLY equal his former capabilities -

    BUT - SURPASS same by leaps and bounds !

    The ONLY thing in Howards' way - is Howard ! -

    HE needs to remember the " Horse that got him to the Race " ! -

    Once HE dispels HIS silly beliefs / superstitions - particularly with the " OFF-AXIS " non-sense -

    There will be NO holding him back !

    One does NOT achieve the record of Howard that YOU mention above WITH-OUT dedication to the game !

    AND - IF YOU are looking for Frank to throw Howard " under the bus " -

    YOU are looking in the WRONG DIRECTION !

    $...eE..$
     

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