Sports Betting How they figure over and unders in football..

Hey Sarge here old newyork sports bookie runner..Here a how too figure o/u in football .Just for this site all bookies get the line from vegas ..overunders are determined by three factors=1 numbers of games played ..2 points for the team how many points they scored ..#3 points against the team how many were scored against them ..now here the math and average==example 5 games team scores 100 points for the team =avg is 20 pts now take other team and do the same say they score 110 in 5 games 22 pts round it out add it together so now over under is 40 + or - minus 3 points we call them bookie fav points depends on the team so there you have it I hope it helps you out you can do the same in baseball and basketball.
The Sarge..

 

Sarge here part #2 of figuring out over and unders =you have stat sheet pick the best game you like or I figure all the games .Example Football I take the stats and figure all the games o/u then look at the line and key into the different o/u ..Remember the 3 point ghost points that the line favors in big games big swings in o/u .Sometimes they add the 1/2 point or lose 1/2 point depends on the heavy betting .hey give me some info if people understand this or not ill try and make it as simple as possible ..any help or advice please post

 

The more important issue for the sports bettor is looking at the ov/un numberand determining if its a realistic number based on the opposition, weather, venue, injuries

for example...if a team averages 22 points a game over the last 5, and is traveling to Seattle.... then that might not be a valid figure.
If the weather has high winds, that might be another factor. If past 5 teams were weak defenses and now going up against a better defense on the road....thats another factor.

So Sarge, what do you look at to see if the numbers are realistic.

Its nice to get other sports bettors opinions

 

it all in the stats they put out ..How many games they play ,points they score for them and also how many were scored against them ..That has a major factor in the line and over and unders.. Weather has a factor but when you look at the stats ..Look in sports betting magazines for the right stats or the vegas line in sports books .. I am going to live in vegas and will be blogging on my live poker playing days and my online days and my playing ..and will also be trying too be beat the sports books anybody in vegas or going look me up if I can help you make money ..Awesome
Team Pitbull Fighting Ptsd one poker hand at a time..

 

you originally [posted that the over/under number was determined by 3 things,....
number of games
points scored
points agAINST

When I mention weather, injury, venue like seattle, quality of past opponents.....u now say ...oh yeah thats also included with the 3 things i originally posted.

Is there anyone with a little more knowledge, that is willing to share the items they look at to see if there is any value in betting over/under a certain number. Sometimes the side or the over/under is off. The man sometimes makes mistakes, or the number reflects the view of the masses that will get the casino 50-50 action rather than reflecting the reality of the game.

 

read my first two post I explain how they get the over and unders and how they figure it out ..

 

I read it. And it isnt important for a sports bettor to know how the man gets the numbers.

Its much much more important for the brttor to be able to look at a number and determine if its on target. If its n target then its unbetable.
However if it is off based on the bettors own research...the bettors own determination of a number...then its a number worth betting.

In fact in my opinion, the best way to bet football is to come up with your own number for side and total FIRST. Use your own parameters to come up with numbers like average scoring, average defense, injury, venue, weather.....AND then compare it to the sportsbook number.

Who really cares how the bookie comes up with his number.Sometimes that number he gives out has more to do with getting 50-50 action more than the reality of the game. Sometimes the number is unrealistic based on a fan fave being involved. Peyton Manning, Dru Brese, seattle home games, Dallas, americas team, this year Ohio State will have unrealistic sides that wont be of any good value to suppport because they are national champions.


If people come up with their own numbers first looking at their own favorite parameters and ignore being a fan of teams and hype.....and just look at pure parameters along with numbers........and then and only then look at the bookie number......then they have a shot at finding value.

Once you have done your due diligence and come up with your number....who really cares how the bookie came up with his number. You now have all the info you need in order to make a bet or reject a game to bet.

 

How the line is figured matters since its a baseline of sportsbet from the line in vegas ..they figure out the over/unders by math ..they then add or subtract ghost points {+- 3 pnts then they follow the action see how they are betting add or subtract 1/2 points too even out the action ..the bookie only cares where the most action is ..So you can fig out your own numbers ..Just take the line and over and unders and see if it right and figure how your going to bet the line too win the most games..

 

If a savvy sports bettor does the work and comes up with their own number for sides and total....it matters little HOW the bookie got HIS number. The bookie can get the number in his dream, the bookie can get the number from some formula, the bookie can get the number based on his need to get 50-50 action. All that matters is that there is a number out there that you look at after you come up with your number, and you now can see if there is any value in a game for you to bet...or if its a game to skip.

If i come up with my own number of 45 for the total, after using the parameters that I look at to calculate it........and I later see in the paper/online that "the man" has a total of 42..........I would have no problem betting the over. No matter HOW the man arrived at 42...I dont care. The man can publish a long mathmatical formula he used to arrive at 42, the man can tell me he pulled the number out of his behind, the man can tell me god gave him the number....it doesnt matter....my resaearch says the number should be 45, and I have an over bet that makes sense and has value to me.

If the man had the number at 45 as well...then its a coin flip and I would pass. Again it would not matter to me HOW the 45 was arrived at.

The bookie is the "shop owner" . He sets the number.
Just as a real retail shopowner sets the price.....I dont care how the shopowner arrives at the price for a gallon of gas....all I have to decide is if I think the price of gas is good value...and I will either purchase it or I will pass.

 

and if one match is fixed how can u figure it out;

 

in the long run if things are fixed they have equal chance of helping me and hurting me....so I dont agonize over that.

 

larry the most hard part is to figure out WHEN a match is fixed ,everything becoming more pro nowdays[know how to cheat without notice] my opinion

 

its like play roulette and some spins are controlled but not ALL, in this case in long run there is not equality

 

I dont play roulette which is why I am on a sports betting board.