Forex How to calculate probability of GapTrade closing in profit?

The name of the title is a question which I asked myself many times until i decided to finally take action.

Below are two photos which I can provide video proof of if needed. I simply asked myself if a person would invest in a trade and hold it over the weekend when the pair has a strong chance of gapping against them, then why not stop the bleeding by hedging and opening a quick scalp for the gap, close it once the market opens, and hope the gaps fills so you can make even more profit? I find it amazing how a chart can show you what YOU want to see and with a little hard work, we can find same flaws, however many or few their are, which we can profit on. So my question has to do with probability but I think it is safe to say that with a gap of 40+ pips and a close at market open, i will be in net profit right?
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